Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Wednesday - April 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
KEE-1   WIN (11/6/12/4/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/6/12/4/7)-(11/6/12/4/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/6/12/4/7)-(11/6/12/4/7)-(11/6/12/4/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (11/6/12/4/7)-(7/6/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (11/6/12/4/7)-(7/6/4)-(9/10) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
KEE-2   WIN (7/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/6/4)-(7/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/6/4)-(7/6/4)-(7/6/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/6/4)-(9/10) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (7/6/4)-(9/10)-(8/9/7/11) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
KEE-3   WIN (9/10) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (9/10)-(9/10/12/5/13) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (9/10)-(9/10/12/5/13)-(9/10/12/5/13) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/10)-(8/9/7/11) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (9/10)-(8/9/7/11)-(7/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
KEE-4   WIN (8/9/7/11) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/9/7/11)-(8/9/7/11) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
KEE-5   WIN (7/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/1)-(7/1/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/1)-(7/1/2/4)-(7/1/2/4) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (7/1)-(11/10/9/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (7/1)-(11/10/9/1)-(2/6/7/3) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
KEE-6   WIN (11/10/9/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (11/10/9/1)-(11/10/9/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (11/10/9/1)-(11/10/9/1)-(11/10/9/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (11/10/9/1)-(2/6/7/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (11/10/9/1)-(2/6/7/3)-(8/2/5/7) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
KEE-7   WIN (2/6/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/7/3)-(2/6/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/7/3)-(2/6/7/3)-(2/6/7/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/6/7/3)-(8/2/5/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
KEE-8   WIN (8/2/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/2/5/7)-(8/2/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/2/5/7)-(8/2/5/7)-(8/2/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   04/19/2023 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 2 F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AIM HIGHER         (elliott l)GRAHAM J 119 30.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of SPECIAL YOU by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SCR  OLD FASHIONED GIRL         (mcentee paul)MCENTEE GRACE 119 20.00    
  (by KLIMT out of CREATIVE DESIGN by STRAVINSKY)
3  KRICKLE         (holsapple)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
  (by CARPE DIEM out of FRISCO GIRL by QUALITY ROAD)
4  PROGNOSTICATE         (mccutchen ro)MARCANO Y 112 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FAST ANNA out of PORTEND by SKY MESA)
5  BINGO'S DREAM         (delgado jos)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of FLATBOW by BROKEN VOW)
6  BARAYE         (ward a)ROSARIO JOEL 119 2.50 23% 3.30    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of PALACE DREAMS by FREUD)
7  FOOLISH FRONT FIFI         (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by COAL FRONT out of FOOLISH PATRIOT by AWESOME PATRIOT)
8  GLORIETTE         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of JULERETTE by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
9  YOUALMOSTHADME         (hancock jo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
  (by OXBOW out of GOOD GATOR by GOOD AND TOUGH)
SCR  TOO FAST FOR YOU         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of GIOVANNA BLUES by GIO PONTI)
11  LATE NITE MISTRESS         (ward a)ORTIZ JR 119 3.00 24% 3.10    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of LATE NIGHT POW WOW by FIBER SONDE)
12  SAPPHIRE NIGHTS         (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.50 8% 11.80    
  (by MITOLE out of MISCHIEF GALORE by INTO MISCHIEF)
SCR  BAYTOWN BAMA GIRL         (mcentee paul)HEARD TYLER 119 30.00    
  (by WEST COAST out of STREET SURRENDER by STREET BOSS)
SCR  LITTLE MUSIC         (holsapple hutc)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
  (by CARPE DIEM (FR) out of FROZEN MUSIC by LANGFUHR)
 
KEE-2   04/19/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($38K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CALL OF HONOR Oct31 Oct11 Apr23 Mar31 Mar17 (van t)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00    
SCR  OTTOTHELEGEND Mar04 Jan19 Oct06 Sep17 Jul10 (catalano w)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 4.00 15% 5.70    
3  PANORAMA TRUCK Mar15 Feb25 Jan06 Dec01 Jun30 (acevedo isra)MARCANO Y 111 15.00    
4  HEIRLOOM KITTEN Mar11 Jan18 Jan06 Dec03 Oct25 (foster eric)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00 9% 10.20    
5  HARD LOVE Mar09 Jan07 Sep24 Jul31   (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50    
6  CAROM Apr01 Mar24 Mar10 Feb23 Jan27 (wong jonathan)NAVAS YOEL 110 3.00 13% 6.80    
7  CARTIER CAT Mar10 Feb23 Feb03 Jan19 Dec22 (silva h)BEJARANO R 120 2.50 26% 2.80    
 
KEE-3   04/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($43K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRYLEE Feb15 Jan18 Nov18     (medina rober)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 8.00    
SCR  FREEFORM Oct14 Aug26       (nihei michell)GILLIGAN JACK 118 6.00    
3  ICY STARE Feb15 Jan21 Dec11 Nov20   (hancock jo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00    
4  WEST COASTER         (corr)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 20.00    
5  CARMEL SUNRISE Mar18 Feb15 Dec29 Dec04 Nov06 (reed r)GEROUX FLORENT 118 30.00 ★    
6  COEXIST Aug14         (hughes g)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
7  MAHOMEBRED Sep07 Aug06 Jul16 Jul01 Jun11 (williamson)LOVEBERRY JARETH 125 12.00    
SCR  SAINT SISTA Oct20 Sep05 Jul08 Jun03   (toye lin)ELLIOTT JANE 125 20.00    
9  GET BY Mar31 Oct01 Aug27 Jul16 Jun22 (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 125 2.50 55% 0.80    
10  KALL KAT Mar18         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 8.00 23% 3.40    
11  GORMLEYESQUE Mar25 Feb15 Aug04     (catalano wa)PETERSON FERRIN 118 10.00    
12  I'MHEREFORTHEPARTY Feb23 Aug10       (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00 ★    
13  RAZZALUNA         (nihei michelle)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 10.00 ★    
 
KEE-4   04/19/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3 F PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SILENT STORY Feb22 Jan13 Oct27 Sep28 Aug27 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 30.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of PATOU by GHOSTZAPPER)
2  OKAY FINE Feb12 Jan05 Nov26 Oct30   (lynch a)VELAZQUEZ R 120 20.00    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
3  PAINT ME PERFECT Feb26 Jan16 Oct14 Sep18   (margolis stephe)COHEN DAVID 120 15.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of KABELLA by KITTEN'S JOY)
4  MASTERFUL MEG         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 120 12.00    
  (by MASTERY out of SATISFACTION by AWESOME AGAIN)
5  KENTUCKY REIGN Mar25 Aug13 Jul31     (colebrook ben)NAVAS YOEL 110 30.00    
  (by CINCO CHARLIE out of DARK WOMAN by PRIVATE THOUGHTS)
6  FANCY CABER NEIGH Mar25 Feb18 Dec23     (sharp joe)ROSARIO JOEL 120 6.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of FANCY POINT by POINT GIVEN)
7  UP AND DOWN Sep01         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 120 3.50 12% 7.20    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of BREAKFAST TIME by KITTEN'S JOY)
8  MAKE THE BOYS WINK Mar16 Feb05 Jan08     (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 26% 2.90    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of PACIFIC PINK by PRIVATE VOW)
9  JUST SAY SO Jan16 Sep14 Jul31     (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.50 22% 3.50    
  (by WAR FRONT out of SAY (IRE) by GALILEO (IRE))
10  OH SUZANNA         (davis christopher)GRAHAM J 120 10.00    
  (by BLAME out of SMART JILLY by SMART STRIKE)
11  LUNA MOTH Mar09 Feb22 Jan25 Dec29 Nov26 (simms jr)MACHADO LUAN 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by RANSOM THE MOON out of PALADIN BAY by SLIGO BAY (IRE))
12  MORETHANANYONE Mar31         (maker michael )PRAT FLAVIEN 120 15.00    
  (by FROSTED (GB) out of ISLAND STRIKER by SMART STRIKE)
SCR  MENDED WE STAND Mar05 Jan22 Oct30 Sep08 Jul29 (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 120 20.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of LADY by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  BOLTORO Mar18 Feb09 Dec14 Oct14 Sep08 (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 4.50 15% 5.80    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of ELANDESS by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  DREAM ROLE Oct14 Sep01       (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 20.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of DREAM FUHREVER by LANGFUHR)
SCR  CAMELOT BEAUTY (IRE) Mar18         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 20.00    
  (by CAMELOT (GB) out of WILD CHILD by FREE AT LAST (GB))
 
KEE-5   04/19/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INVISIBLE WAR Mar26 Mar09 Feb11 Jan20 Dec24 (casse mark)ORTIZ JR 124 2.00 33% 2.00    
2  RAYMOND Mar19 Mar03 Oct31 Oct05 Sep16 (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 124 8.00 ★    
SCR  ZIP IT SCOTTY Mar18 Oct24 Oct05 Sep16 Aug26 (jazdzewski jon)AYALA ISAIAS 124 30.00    
4  THE HONORABLE ONE Feb28 Feb09 Dec30 Oct19 Aug23 (wong jonath)NAVA-MARIN JOSE 124 6.00 ★    
5  SAIL AT SUNRISE Nov17 Oct07 Aug19 Jul17 Jun05 (jazdzews)RODRIGUEZ A 119 15.00    
6  GROUP EIGHTEEN Mar18 Feb24 Jan28 Jan06 Nov27 (williamson b)GEROUX FLORENT 124 10.00    
7  LONGSHADOW Mar17 Sep08 Aug17 Jul27   (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 3.00 43% 1.30    
SCR  HOYA PARANOYA Mar19 Mar03 Feb11 Jan28 Apr25 (puhich mi)LEPAROUX R 124 4.50    
 
KEE-6   04/19/2023 7920ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($110K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FOREIGN RELATIONS Mar10 Feb16 Jan25 Dec17   (murphy conor)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 15.00 8% 11.40    
SCR  SOLID COUNTRY GOLD Apr12 Mar02 Jan28 Dec22 Dec01 (catalano w)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 20.00 6% 15.30    
3  EVAN HARLAN Feb05 Jan02 Dec03 Oct15 Jul13 (motion graha)ROSARIO JOEL 118 1.80    
4  EL AHIJADO Mar30 Mar04 Dec30 Dec02 Nov06 (guerrero sal)NAVAS YOEL 111 50.00    
SCR  C FALLS Mar02 Feb04 Nov27 Oct22 Sep23 (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
6  WIND TWIST Mar15 Feb01 Dec15 Sep22 Sep13 (sandy st)RODRIGUEZ A 113 20.00    
7  SILENT STEVE Mar17 Feb24       (wittek karyn)ELLIOTT JANE 118 50.00    
8  SMOKEY LEE Mar31 Dec22 Nov30 Nov03 Oct04 (cundiff way)PETERSON FERRIN 118 30.00    
9  MOUNT RUNDLE Mar10 Oct26 Sep05 Aug07 Jun05 (nihei michell)VELAZQUEZ R 118 8.00 12% 7.60    
10  ALWAYS ABOVE Nov04 Oct09 Sep05 Jul27 Jun18 (nihei michell)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.00 19% 4.20    
11  MASTER OF THE RING Mar10 Jan20 Jan06 Oct12   (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 31% 2.30    
12  BOLD LOOKER Mar10 Feb17 Jan11 Dec17 Nov03 (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 118 20.00    
 
KEE-7   04/19/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHILENO Mar11 Feb10 Aug20 Jul09 May30 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 5.00    
2  FILM STAR Feb24 Dec16 Oct22 Sep17 Aug05 (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 125 2.50 33% 2.00    
3  LIL BRO COOP Mar12 Jan13 Nov25 Sep30 Aug25 (hartman chris)ORTIZ JR 125 3.00 7% 13.90    
4  BRIGHT SPARK Feb25 Feb04 Dec31 Dec09 Oct16 (flint bernar)BESCHIZZA ADAM 125 8.00    
5  PRINCELY Mar19 Nov12 Sep28 Sep15   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
6  GROUP HUG Mar17 May30 Apr10 Mar20 Feb26 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 125 4.50 28% 2.60    
7  ROYAL KING Mar05 Feb10 Jan13 Jan29   (robertson )LOVEBERRY JARETH 125 3.50 10% 8.60    
 
KEE-8   04/19/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3 F PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STAY LOST Nov26 Oct16 Sep08 Aug07   (casse norm )GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 15.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of DARCI'S DREAM by DARCI BRAHMA)
2  CALLIE'S GRIT Sep03 Jul31       (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 6.00 15% 5.80    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of NEITH by DYNAFORMER)
3  LADY DYNAMO Mar12         (tomlinson mi)GEROUX FLORENT 120 8.00    
  (by LORD NELSON out of SEAUXBELLE by DYNAFORMER)
SCR  WHY WASTE WORDS         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 120 20.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of THE ROAD NOT TAKEN by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
5  BEL ROSSO Sep03 Aug14       (hiles jeff)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00 15% 5.90    
  (by FREE DROP BILLY out of TIZ THE KEY by TIZNOW)
6  WORK OF FICTION Feb18 Jan15 Nov16 Oct08 Aug05 (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 120 10.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of DUCRU by BROKEN VOW)
7  SUPER LUXE Mar25 Jan21       (asmussen steve)ROSARIO JOEL 120 20.00 7% 14.10    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of CHASE MOTTO by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
8  FRONTAL ATTACK         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 120 3.00 22% 3.60    
  (by WAR FRONT out of LADY OF KYUSHU by SMART STRIKE)
9  RECONSIDER ME (IRE)         (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 120 4.00    
  (by NO NAY NEVER out of CASUAL by CURLIN)
10  FLOWERDEW Mar02 Feb05 Dec01 Oct22 Sep23 (margolis stephe)LANERIE J 120 4.50    
  (by MUNNINGS out of MARRAKESH EXPRESS by UNION RAGS)
11  KINGMAKING (GB) Nov05         (chavez manuel)CRUZ JOHN 120 20.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of LA DOROTEA by LOPE DE VEGA (IRE))
12  NOW SHOWING Mar18 Jan29 Nov20     (terranova jo)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 30.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of GIANT SCREEN by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
SCR  ASTRILA Mar18 Feb18 Aug14     (mott i)ROSARIO JOEL 120 20.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of HARBINGEROFTHINGS by ROCKPORT HARBOR)
SCR  AFTER EIGHT Aug25         (delacour )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 30.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of CLASSYDAME by BLAME)
SCR  SHESASMALLTOWNGIRL Mar11 Feb11       (maker michael )PRAT FLAVIEN 120 6.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of MY PAIGE'S JEWEL by FOREST WILDCAT)
SCR  TACTICAL JOKE Jan27         (ward a)ORTIZ JR 120 3.00 16% 5.20    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of COMPETITION by DIXIE UNION)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.