Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - October 30, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   10/30/2022 3300ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  J J'S JOKER         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00    
2  TWO EAGLES RIVER         (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 10.00    
3  BIRTHDAY MUNNINGS Sep24 Aug12       (walsh br)SANTANA JR 119 6.00 32% 2.20    
4  MIDNIGHT PRANKS         (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 4.00 23% 3.30    
5  OLAZABAL Oct02 Sep18 Aug28 Aug06   (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00    
6  GABE         (hiles a)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 20.00 ★    
7  TALLADEGA         (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 22% 3.50    
SCR  ONASA         (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 10.00    
9  BIG HAT WILLIE         (o'neill do)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
10  ISLAND SWAGGER May19         (lynch a)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
11  TOP D'ORO         (delgado gustavo)BEJARANO R 119 12.00 ★    
12  FUNNY UNCLE Oct02 Aug29       (vance d)COURT K 119 20.00    
 
CD-2   10/30/2022 3300ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRU NA BOINNE         (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 10.00    
2  DOUGHTY Jul01         (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 6.00 12% 7.30    
3  AMERICAN FAIRYTALE         (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00    
4  PARODY         (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 29% 2.40    
5  MIDSUMMER SOIREE         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
6  LADY OCEAN Jul15         (delgado gust)ROMERO GREGORY 119 12.00    
7  HIGH CLASS Sep25 Jul31       (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 5.00    
8  FAIRY HAIR         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
9  SURE CAN         (lynch bri)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
10  SHARP TAP         (sharp joe)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
11  INVENTING ANNA Oct08 Sep06 Aug10     (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 4.50 33% 2.00    
SCR  GOLDBLOODED Oct04 Sep10       (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 ★    
SCR  VARSITY BLONDE         (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
SCR  HIGH END VIXEN         (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 119 15.00    
SCR  COLLECTED GLORY Aug20 Jul31 Jul01     (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 6.00    
SCR  MOMENT TO SHINE         (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 5.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-3   10/30/2022 5610ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  PERFECT ROSE Oct13 Sep29 Sep16 Sep08 Aug13 (vasquez sr)COURT K 119 50.00    
2  THE ALYS LOOK Oct12         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
3  ROSES AND ROZAY Oct12         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 30.00    
4  TOWHEAD Oct07 Sep03 Aug14 Jul24 Jun17 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 23% 3.30    
5  SOUPER EXPLOSIVE Sep18         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00    
6  MENDED WE STAND Sep08 Jul29       (arnold georg)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00    
7  ALPHA BELLA Oct02 Aug28       (pletcher todd)VELAZQUEZ R 119 4.00 15% 5.90    
8  TINY TEMPER Sep17         (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 36% 1.80    
9  SUN VALLEY ROAD         (cox h)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00    
10  NOMADIC PRIDE Sep30         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
11  MO SHIRO Sep18 Aug28 Aug07     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
12  METAPHYSICAL Oct02 Sep08 Aug06     (hiles a)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00 ★    
 
CD-4   10/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LEMON BOMB Oct08         (pugh pete)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 6.00 8% 12.30    
2  BOARDWALK QUEEN Sep25         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 4.50 7% 12.80    
3  BO DEREK         (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00    
4  RED CARPET READY         (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
5  FIRST HILL         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00    
6  PETERPAM         (sharp joe)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00    
7  OKAY FINE         (lynch a)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
8  GIRL NAMED CHARLIE Aug28 Jul31       (amoss tho)PEDROZA MARCELINO 119 5.00 21% 3.80    
9  PATTY VAN TWINKLE         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 119 20.00    
10  MARKET PROFILE Sep23         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 6.00    
11  TESHIMA         (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
12  TOUGH LEGACY         (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
SCR  TWO ITEM SAVER Sep25         (stewart dalla)VELAZQUEZ R 119 4.00 18% 4.70    
SCR  LEIPZIG         (mott willi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 12.00    
SCR  KLASSY BRIDGETTE Sep18         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 2.50 25% 3.00    
SCR  LADAN Oct20 Sep24 Jul31 Jun29   (bogle fergus)MORALES EDGAR 119 30.00    
 
CD-5   10/30/2022 5610ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAGNIFICENT MILE Oct01 Aug21       (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 10% 9.00    
2  SAM STORMY Sep08         (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
SCR  WICKED SECRET Sep28 Aug31       (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 8.00    
4  BENGALS GO Oct09         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 33% 2.00    
5  DIVERSIFUL Sep21         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00    
6  TOAST TO COAST Oct09         (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 119 30.00    
7  PYRENEES Oct01 Aug28       (devaux che)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 32% 2.10    
8  ACCIDENT Oct09 Sep29 Sep08 Aug26 Aug13 (short thomas)WISEMAN ISAIAH 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
9  PAPPY WOLFE Oct01 Sep03       (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
10  O GANGSTER Oct19 Oct01 Aug28     (delgado gusta)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
11  ROCKET CAN Sep03 Aug06       (mott william )VELAZQUEZ R 119 4.50 ★    
12  MILLERS RITE Oct01 Aug17       (vance d)COURT K 119 50.00    
13  SPIELMAN Oct01 Aug21 Jul22     (desormeaux)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00    
SCR  DARIO Oct23         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
 
CD-6   10/30/2022 5610ft DIRT RC2 SLOPPY nongraded Stake Purse ($200K) 2 F PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOOSIER PHILLY Sep25         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 2.50 30% 2.30    
2  PEACOCK LASS Sep17 Aug07       (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00 8% 11.10    
3  STELLAR LADY Oct07 Sep08 Aug05 Jul20   (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 122 20.00    
4  EAST SHORE Oct02 Sep01 Jul23 Jun17   (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 12.00    
5  T MAX Sep15 Aug21       (walden willia)GILLIGAN JACK 122 4.50 19% 4.20    
SCR  NAUGHTY GAL Sep17 Sep04 Aug07 Jul04 Jun10 (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 122 12.00 ★    
7  FUN AND FEISTY Oct07 Sep17 Aug13 Jul23 Jul04 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.00 21% 3.70    
8  DRE ME LESS Sep29 Aug13       (arnold georg)GEROUX FLORENT 122 15.00    
 
CD-7   10/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GORDY'S LABEL         (stall m)GRAHAM J 119 8.00    
SCR  GOLDEN NUGGET         (walsh bren)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00 ★    
3  BRAZEN BOY         (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
4  DREAMWITHINADREAM         (hiles a)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00    
5  MOON OVER DUBAI         (peitz c)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00    
6  CREPE YARNS Sep29         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 10.00    
7  BACKSIDE BUZZ Oct09 Jul17 Jun25 May20   (vance tho)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
8  JOKING WAY Sep22         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 15% 5.60    
9  BEAU DAY Oct09         (hancock l)BAYS BROOKE 109 30.00    
10  WINNEMAC AVENUE         (divito james )VELAZQUEZ R 119 6.00 ★    
11  GLOBAL PRIDE         (delgado gustavo)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
12  RIDGEPOINT ROAD         (catalano wayne )COHEN DAVID 119 15.00    
SCR  REAGAN Sep29         (stewart dallas)COHEN DAVID 119 2.50 28% 2.60    
SCR  EASY ACTION Sep17         (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 2.00 36% 1.80    
 
CD-8   10/30/2022 5610ft DIRT RC3 Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AMERICAN SPEED Aug31 Aug06       (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 12.00 8% 11.90    
2  MO'S TREASURE Oct12 Sep22 Sep03 Aug07 Jul23 (lukas wa)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00    
3  OVERLY D'ORO Oct11 Sep28 Sep07 Aug09 Jul24 (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 50.00    
4  COUNTERSPY Sep16 Aug21 Jul22     (casse mark)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 15.00    
5  MUST BE THE MONEY Sep21         (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00 7% 12.70    
6  TAPIT'S CONQUEST Oct01 Sep03       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 3.00 21% 3.80    
7  HIGHWAY ROBBER Sep23         (lynch bri)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 12.00    
8  PADDOCK BOSS Sep13 Aug27 Jul30     (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 118 15.00    
9  FRANK'S HONOR Oct01 Sep15 Aug13     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.50 20% 3.90    
10  B MINOR Oct09 Sep16 Sep03     (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 122 10.00    
11  ECHO AGAIN Sep17 Aug20       (asmussen)SANTANA JR 118 2.50 23% 3.30    
 
CD-9   10/30/2022 4620ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CLOSED CAPTION Oct09 Sep22 Sep10     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 6.00    
2  PROMISE OF HOPE Oct07 Sep08 Aug07 Jul01   (amoss m)LANERIE J 122 4.50 27% 2.70    
SCR  SANTA FE GOLD Oct07 Sep15 Jul17 Jun25   (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00 13% 6.90    
4  BLUELIGHTSPECIAL Oct05 Sep07 Aug11 Jul19   (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 20.00 9% 10.40    
SCR  MUSTANG LADY Oct07 Sep03 Jul31     (newton troy)BEJARANO R 122 5.00    
6  PIONEER PARADE Sep24         (divito james)GEROUX FLORENT 122 15.00    
7  JOKES ON BLUE Sep25 Aug26       (asmussen)SANTANA JR 122 5.00 ★    
8  CHIQUITA MOSCA Sep03 Aug14 Jul31 Jul04 Jun19 (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 20.00    
9  PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS Sep18         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.20 28% 2.60    
 
CD-10   10/30/2022 5610ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Grade III Stake/Handicap Purse ($200K) 2 ALL PT- 5:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOP RECRUIT Oct01 Aug14 Jul09 Jun09   (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 122 5.00 20% 4.00    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of OH SO BELLA by AFLEET ALEX)
2  BOPPY O Oct09 Aug31 Jul16 May20   (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 10.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of PAPPASCAT by SCAT DADDY)
3  JACE'S ROAD Sep17 Aug06       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 3.50 24% 3.20    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of OUT POST by SILVER DEPUTY)
4  FLIPARINO Sep24         (arnold r)LANERIE J 122 12.00 ★    
  (by HONOR CODE out of SWAP FLIPAROO by EXCHANGE RATE)
5  TWO PHIL'S Oct08 Sep17 Jul18 Jun23   (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 8.00 ★    
  (by HARD SPUN out of MIA TORRI by GENERAL QUARTERS)
6  RED ROUTE ONE Oct08 Sep05 Aug06     (asmussen)SANTANA JR 122 3.00 34% 1.90    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of RED HOUSE by RED RYDER)
7  FROSTED DEPARTURE Oct08 Sep16 Aug14 Jul22 Jul02 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 6.00    
  (by FROSTED out of UNDETERRED by MORE THAN READY)
SCR  KING ICE Oct05 Sep27 Sep14 Aug18   (flint s)GRAHAM J 122 30.00    
  (by KEEN ICE out of EXPRESS RUN by UNBRIDLED EXPRESS)
9  HONED Oct08 Sep17 Jul10     (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 122 10.00    
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of ALL ABOUT ALLISON by CITY ZIP)
10  HAYES STRIKE Oct12 Sep17 Aug20 Jul22   (mcpeek g)BEJARANO R 122 12.00    
  (by CONNECT out of PLAID by DEPUTY COMMANDER)
11  WESTERN GHENT Oct08 Sep05 Aug25 Aug06 Jul23 (lukas wayne)GARCIA MARTIN 122 20.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of LUZMIMI PRINCESS by MALIBU MOON)
 
CD-11   10/30/2022 5610ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 6:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  REGIMENTAL Sep10         (arnold george )ROCCO S 119 15.00    
2  DESERT WOLF Oct01 Sep03       (pletcher todd)VELAZQUEZ R 119 3.00 21% 3.70    
3  HUNTER'S DRIVE Sep03 Aug19       (desormeaux)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00    
4  SIR ROCK Sep29         (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 8.00    
5  CREATE TROUBLE Sep17         (walsh brendan)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 10.00    
6  MACHO VILLA Oct09 Sep21 Aug28 Jul22 Jul02 (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 30.00    
7  DENINGTON Oct01 Aug28 Aug05     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
8  PARKWAY Sep03         (mott willi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00    
9  FIGHT'N READY         (stewart dallas)COHEN DAVID 119 8.00    
10  MO SATURDAYS Oct09 Sep01       (stall al)SANTANA JR 119 8.00 12% 7.10    
11  TAPIT SHOES         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 20% 3.90    
12  COAL BOSS Sep24         (foley greg)GRAHAM J 119 50.00    
SCR  RUNGIUS Sep15 Aug05 Jun26     (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 4.00 24% 3.10    
SCR  ESCAPOLOGIST Oct20 Oct01       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 ★    
SCR  RIO MOON Sep22         (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.