Handicappers' Racing Form

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Churchill Downs
Sunday - October 30, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss


Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
CD-1   10/30/2022 3300ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 1:00
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
J J'S JOKER         (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00    
TWO EAGLES RIVER         (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 10.00    
BIRTHDAY MUNNINGS Sep24 Aug12       (walsh bren)SANTANA JR 119 6.00 32% 2.20    
MIDNIGHT PRANKS         (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 4.00 23% 3.30    
OLAZABAL Oct02 Sep18 Aug28 Aug06   (foster eric)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00    
GABE         (hiles a)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 20.00    
TALLADEGA         (brisset rodolp)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 22% 3.50    
SCR  ONASA         (rivelli larr)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 10.00    
BIG HAT WILLIE         (o'neill doug)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
10  ISLAND SWAGGER May19         (lynch a)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
11  TOP D'ORO         (delgado gustavo)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
12  FUNNY UNCLE Oct02 Aug29       (vance d)COURT K 119 20.00    
 
CD-2   10/30/2022 3300ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 1:30
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BRU NA BOINNE         (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 10.00    
DOUGHTY Jul01         (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 6.00 12% 7.30    
AMERICAN FAIRYTALE         (wilkes r)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00    
PARODY         (brisset rodo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 29% 2.40    
MIDSUMMER SOIREE         (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
LADY OCEAN Jul15         (delgado gustav)ROMERO GREGORY 119 12.00    
HIGH CLASS Sep25 Jul31       (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 5.00    
FAIRY HAIR         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
SURE CAN         (lynch brian)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
10  SHARP TAP         (sharp joe)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
11  INVENTING ANNA Oct08 Sep06 Aug10     (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 4.50 33% 2.00    
SCR  GOLDBLOODED Oct04 Sep10       (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
SCR  VARSITY BLONDE         (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
SCR  HIGH END VIXEN         (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 119 15.00    
SCR  COLLECTED GLORY Aug20 Jul31 Jul01     (von d)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 6.00    
SCR  MOMENT TO SHINE         (rivelli larr)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 5.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-3   10/30/2022 5610ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:00
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  PERFECT ROSE Oct13 Sep29 Sep16 Sep08 Aug13 (vasquez sr)COURT K 119 50.00    
THE ALYS LOOK Oct12         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
ROSES AND ROZAY Oct12         (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 119 30.00    
TOWHEAD Oct07 Sep03 Aug14 Jul24 Jun17 (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 23% 3.30    
SOUPER EXPLOSIVE Sep18         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00    
MENDED WE STAND Sep08 Jul29       (arnold george )LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00    
ALPHA BELLA Oct02 Aug28       (pletcher a)VELAZQUEZ R 119 4.00 15% 5.90    
TINY TEMPER Sep17         (stewart dall)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 36% 1.80    
SUN VALLEY ROAD         (cox h)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00    
10  NOMADIC PRIDE Sep30         (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
11  MO SHIRO Sep18 Aug28 Aug07     (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
12  METAPHYSICAL Oct02 Sep08 Aug06     (hiles a)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00    
 
CD-4   10/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:30
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LEMON BOMB Oct08         (pugh peter )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 6.00 8% 12.30    
BOARDWALK QUEEN Sep25         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 4.50 7% 12.80    
BO DEREK         (brisset rodo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00    
RED CARPET READY         (arnold georg)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
FIRST HILL         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00    
PETERPAM         (sharp joe)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00    
OKAY FINE         (lynch a)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
GIRL NAMED CHARLIE Aug28 Jul31       (amoss thoma)PEDROZA MARCELINO 119 5.00 21% 3.80    
PATTY VAN TWINKLE         (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 119 20.00    
10  MARKET PROFILE Sep23         (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 6.00    
11  TESHIMA         (walsh p)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
12  TOUGH LEGACY         (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
SCR  TWO ITEM SAVER Sep25         (stewart dallas)VELAZQUEZ R 119 4.00 18% 4.70    
SCR  LEIPZIG         (mott william)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 12.00    
SCR  KLASSY BRIDGETTE Sep18         (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 2.50 25% 3.00    
SCR  LADAN Oct20 Sep24 Jul31 Jun29   (bogle fergus)MORALES EDGAR 119 30.00    
 
CD-5   10/30/2022 5610ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:01
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MAGNIFICENT MILE Oct01 Aug21       (brisset rodolp)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 10% 9.00    
SAM STORMY Sep08         (kenneally eddie)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
SCR  WICKED SECRET Sep28 Aug31       (stewart dalla)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 8.00    
BENGALS GO Oct09         (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 33% 2.00    
DIVERSIFUL Sep21         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00    
TOAST TO COAST Oct09         (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 119 30.00    
PYRENEES Oct01 Aug28       (devaux cheri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 32% 2.10    
ACCIDENT Oct09 Sep29 Sep08 Aug26 Aug13 (short thomas)WISEMAN ISAIAH 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
PAPPY WOLFE Oct01 Sep03       (von d)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
10  O GANGSTER Oct19 Oct01 Aug28     (delgado gustavo)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
11  ROCKET CAN Sep03 Aug06       (mott i)VELAZQUEZ R 119 4.50    
12  MILLERS RITE Oct01 Aug17       (vance d)COURT K 119 50.00    
13  SPIELMAN Oct01 Aug21 Jul22     (desormeaux j)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00    
SCR  DARIO Oct23         (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
 
CD-6   10/30/2022 5610ft DIRT RC2 SLOPPY nongraded Stake Purse ($200K) 2 F PT- 3:31
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HOOSIER PHILLY Sep25         (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 122 2.50 30% 2.30    
PEACOCK LASS Sep17 Aug07       (brisset rodo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00 8% 11.10    
STELLAR LADY Oct07 Sep08 Aug05 Jul20   (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 122 20.00    
EAST SHORE Oct02 Sep01 Jul23 Jun17   (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 12.00    
T MAX Sep15 Aug21       (walden william)GILLIGAN JACK 122 4.50 19% 4.20    
SCR  NAUGHTY GAL Sep17 Sep04 Aug07 Jul04 Jun10 (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 122 12.00    
FUN AND FEISTY Oct07 Sep17 Aug13 Jul23 Jul04 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.00 21% 3.70    
DRE ME LESS Sep29 Aug13       (arnold george )GEROUX FLORENT 122 15.00    
 
CD-7   10/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 4:01
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GORDY'S LABEL         (stall m)GRAHAM J 119 8.00    
SCR  GOLDEN NUGGET         (walsh brenda)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00    
BRAZEN BOY         (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
DREAMWITHINADREAM         (hiles a)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00    
MOON OVER DUBAI         (peitz c)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00    
CREPE YARNS Sep29         (wilkes ian )LEPAROUX R 119 10.00    
BACKSIDE BUZZ Oct09 Jul17 Jun25 May20   (vance thoma)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
JOKING WAY Sep22         (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 15% 5.60    
BEAU DAY Oct09         (hancock l)BAYS BROOKE 109 30.00    
10  WINNEMAC AVENUE         (divito p)VELAZQUEZ R 119 6.00    
11  GLOBAL PRIDE         (delgado gustavo)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
12  RIDGEPOINT ROAD         (catalano m)COHEN DAVID 119 15.00    
SCR  REAGAN Sep29         (stewart dallas)COHEN DAVID 119 2.50 28% 2.60    
SCR  EASY ACTION Sep17         (casse norm)SANTANA JR 119 2.00 36% 1.80    
 
CD-8   10/30/2022 5610ft DIRT RC3 Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 4:33
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
AMERICAN SPEED Aug31 Aug06       (brisset rodo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 12.00 8% 11.90    
MO'S TREASURE Oct12 Sep22 Sep03 Aug07 Jul23 (lukas wayn)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00    
OVERLY D'ORO Oct11 Sep28 Sep07 Aug09 Jul24 (bahena ismael)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 50.00    
COUNTERSPY Sep16 Aug21 Jul22     (casse mark)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 15.00    
MUST BE THE MONEY Sep21         (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00 7% 12.70    
TAPIT'S CONQUEST Oct01 Sep03       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 3.00 21% 3.80    
HIGHWAY ROBBER Sep23         (lynch brian)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 12.00    
PADDOCK BOSS Sep13 Aug27 Jul30     (brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 118 15.00    
FRANK'S HONOR Oct01 Sep15 Aug13     (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.50 20% 3.90    
10  B MINOR Oct09 Sep16 Sep03     (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 122 10.00    
11  ECHO AGAIN Sep17 Aug20       (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 118 2.50 23% 3.30    
 
CD-9   10/30/2022 4620ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 F PT- 5:05
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CLOSED CAPTION Oct09 Sep22 Sep10     (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 122 6.00    
PROMISE OF HOPE Oct07 Sep08 Aug07 Jul01   (amoss m)LANERIE J 122 4.50 27% 2.70    
SCR  SANTA FE GOLD Oct07 Sep15 Jul17 Jun25   (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00 13% 6.90    
BLUELIGHTSPECIAL Oct05 Sep07 Aug11 Jul19   (contreras c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 20.00 9% 10.40    
SCR  MUSTANG LADY Oct07 Sep03 Jul31     (newton troy)BEJARANO R 122 5.00    
PIONEER PARADE Sep24         (divito p)GEROUX FLORENT 122 15.00    
JOKES ON BLUE Sep25 Aug26       (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 122 5.00    
CHIQUITA MOSCA Sep03 Aug14 Jul31 Jul04 Jun19 (bahena ismael)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 20.00    
PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS Sep18         (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.20 28% 2.60    
 
CD-10   10/30/2022 5610ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Grade III Stake/Handicap Purse ($200K) 2 ALL PT- 5:35
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TOP RECRUIT Oct01 Aug14 Jul09 Jun09   (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 122 5.00 20% 4.00    
BOPPY O Oct09 Aug31 Jul16 May20   (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 10.00    
JACE'S ROAD Sep17 Aug06       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 3.50 24% 3.20    
FLIPARINO Sep24         (arnold r)LANERIE J 122 12.00    
TWO PHIL'S Oct08 Sep17 Jul18 Jun23   (rivelli larr)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 8.00    
RED ROUTE ONE Oct08 Sep05 Aug06     (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 122 3.00 34% 1.90    
FROSTED DEPARTURE Oct08 Sep16 Aug14 Jul22 Jul02 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 122 6.00    
SCR  KING ICE Oct05 Sep27 Sep14 Aug18   (flint s)GRAHAM J 122 30.00    
HONED Oct08 Sep17 Jul10     (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 122 10.00    
10  HAYES STRIKE Oct12 Sep17 Aug20 Jul22   (mcpeek g)BEJARANO R 122 12.00    
11  WESTERN GHENT Oct08 Sep05 Aug25 Aug06 Jul23 (lukas wayne)GARCIA MARTIN 122 20.00    
 
CD-11   10/30/2022 5610ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 6:05
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  REGIMENTAL Sep10         (arnold r)ROCCO S 119 15.00    
DESERT WOLF Oct01 Sep03       (pletcher a)VELAZQUEZ R 119 3.00 21% 3.70    
HUNTER'S DRIVE Sep03 Aug19       (desormeaux j)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00    
SIR ROCK Sep29         (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 8.00    
CREATE TROUBLE Sep17         (walsh p)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 10.00    
MACHO VILLA Oct09 Sep21 Aug28 Jul22 Jul02 (lukas wayn)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 30.00    
DENINGTON Oct01 Aug28 Aug05     (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
PARKWAY Sep03         (mott william)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00    
FIGHT'N READY         (stewart dallas)COHEN DAVID 119 8.00    
10  MO SATURDAYS Oct09 Sep01       (stall albe)SANTANA JR 119 8.00 12% 7.10    
11  TAPIT SHOES         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 20% 3.90    
12  COAL BOSS Sep24         (foley greg)GRAHAM J 119 50.00    
SCR  RUNGIUS Sep15 Aug05 Jun26     (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 4.00 24% 3.10    
SCR  ESCAPOLOGIST Oct20 Oct01       (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00    
SCR  RIO MOON Sep22         (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 20.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.