Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Saturday - January 18, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (1/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/7/4)-(1/7/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/7/4)-(1/7/4)-(1/7/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/7/4)-(7/5/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/7/4)-(7/5/6/2)-(1/7/5/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-2   WIN (7/5/6/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/5/6/2)-(7/5/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/5/6/2)-(7/5/6/2)-(7/5/6/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/5/6/2)-(1/7/5/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/5/6/2)-(1/7/5/6)-(1/2/6/5) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
AQU-3   WIN (1/7/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/7/5/6)-(1/7/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/5/6)-(1/7/5/6)-(1/7/5/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/7/5/6)-(1/2/6/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/7/5/6)-(1/2/6/5)-(6/2/3/7) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
AQU-4   WIN (1/2/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/6/5)-(1/2/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/2/6/5)-(1/2/6/5)-(1/2/6/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/2/6/5)-(6/2/3/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/2/6/5)-(6/2/3/7)-(2/5/10/6/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
AQU-5   WIN (6/2/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/3/7)-(6/2/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/3/7)-(6/2/3/7)-(6/2/3/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/2/3/7)-(2/5/10/6/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/2/3/7)-(2/5/10/6/4)-(1/7/10/3/2) 100 $1.00 $100 
AQU-6   WIN (2/5/10/6/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/5/10/6/4)-(2/5/10/6/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/5/10/6/4)-(2/5/10/6/4)-(2/5/10/6/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/5/10/6/4)-(1/7/10/3/2) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (2/5/10/6/4)-(1/7/10/3/2)-(3/6/1) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
AQU-7   WIN (1/7/10/3/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/7/10/3/2)-(1/7/10/3/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/7/10/3/2)-(1/7/10/3/2)-(1/7/10/3/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/7/10/3/2)-(3/6/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/7/10/3/2)-(3/6/1)-(6/3/13/8/10) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
AQU-8   WIN (3/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/1)-(3/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/6/1)-(3/6/1)-(3/6/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/6/1)-(6/3/13/8/10) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
AQU-9   WIN (6/3/13/8/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/3/13/8/10)-(6/3/13/8/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/3/13/8/10)-(6/3/13/8/10)-(6/3/13/8/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   01/18/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($29K) 4UP M/F PT-12:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY ARWEN Dec27 Nov10 Oct22 Sep24 Aug12 (englehart jerem)CARMOUCHE K 123 4.00 50% 1.00    
2  ACCELERINA Nov29 Nov10 Oct18 Sep03 Jul17 (rodriguez rudy )DAVIS KATIE 123 6.00    
3  WILD IRIS Dec01 Nov10 Oct24 Sep20 Aug06 (duggan p)LUZZI J 123 1.60    
4  LADY LAOBAN Nov29 Nov01 Oct13 Sep14 Jul05 (duggan p)CIVACI SAHIN 123 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  RCAPTIVATING Dec08 Nov25 Jan08 Dec16 Nov07 (keithan )DAVIS A 123 20.00    
SCR  POLITICAL SPIN Jan03 Dec13 Oct17 Sep13 Aug18 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 123 3.50    
7  LEM ME DRINK Nov29 Oct31 Sep20 Aug04 Jun07 (levine bruce)FRANCO MANUEL 123 6.00 13% 6.60    
 
AQU-2   01/18/2025 5940ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($29K) 4UP ALL PT-12:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUST BE HONEST Jan11 Dec14 Nov24 Nov07 Sep25 (ryerson t)CARMOUCHE K 123 4.50    
2  SKELLIG ISLAND Dec28 Oct12 Oct05 Aug04 Jun29 (reynold)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  BROWN DON'T STOP Dec28 Dec14 Nov21 May27 May02 (bernardini ju)SILVERA RUBEN 123 12.00    
4  GUM ISLAND Dec29 Jun29 May02 Feb16 Dec08 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 123 8.00    
5  JANSSEN Jan01 Dec14 Nov30 Oct31 Sep22 (lakeman andre)FRANCO MANUEL 123 3.50 25% 3.00    
6  DEPUTY CONNECT Dec29 Nov10 May17 May05 Apr05 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 123 4.50 19% 4.20    
7  YORK TAVERN Jan11 Dec28 Nov30 Nov10 Oct13 (potts wa)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 118 1.20 34% 2.00    
 
AQU-3   01/18/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($29K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ENFUEGA Dec08 Sep27 Aug18 Jul28 Jun30 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 123 1.60    
1A  LA BANQUERA Dec14 Jul25 Jun09 May24   (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 123 1.60 39% 1.60    
2  MO DAMORNINGGROUCH Dec14 Dec08 Nov21 Nov03 Sep26 (keithan racha)SILVERA RUBEN 123 20.00    
3  BEWILDERED Nov10 Oct24 Aug11 Jul04 May27 (levine)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 5.00    
4  BIG HAZEL Dec27 Nov29 Nov10 Oct06 Sep19 (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 15.00    
5  LA GROTTE Dec27 Nov20 Nov06 Oct22 Jul06 (johnston rob)CIVACI SAHIN 123 4.50 14% 6.40    
6  SHINING SPIRIT Dec06 Nov17 Oct02 Jul13 Jun14 (gorham michael )CARMOUCHE K 123 10.00 11% 7.80    
7  MAJULU Dec29 Dec01 Nov17 Nov07 Aug28 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 123 2.00 16% 5.30    
 
AQU-4   01/18/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($44K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALLURE OF MONEY Dec15 Nov22 Oct24 Sep23 Jul08 (baker charlto)SILVERA RUBEN 123 8.00 32% 2.10    
2  MAJESTIC FRONTIER Jan03 Nov27 Oct21 Oct08 Sep13 (d'alessandro r)LEZCANO JOSE 123 4.50 25% 2.90    
3  SUNDAESWITHSANDY Dec14 Feb17 Dec17 Nov26 Nov05 (nevin michelle)CARMOUCHE K 123 1.40    
4  ERIC FROM MIAMI Jan01 Nov11 Sep01 Aug06 Jul24 (dutrow richar)FRANCO MANUEL 123 6.00    
5  CO CONSPIRATOR Jan02 Dec14 Dec06 Nov23 Nov02 (jones ed)DAVIS A 123 30.00 5% 19.00    
6  MONTEBELLO Jan05 Dec08 Nov14 Oct08 Sep14 (figueroa carlo)LUZZI J 123 3.00 13% 6.50    
7  BAD LARRY Jan10 Dec08 Nov19 Oct25 Sep29 (potts wa)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 118 6.00    
 
AQU-5   01/18/2025 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($84K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CELESTIAL GLAZE Dec29 Nov24 Oct18 Sep19 Aug04 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 121 6.00    
1A  DISARMED Nov24 Oct27 Sep19 Aug10 Jun09 (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 121 6.00    
2  RIDGEWOOD RUNNER Dec29 Nov24 Oct31 Jun23 Apr27 (martin f)CARMOUCHE K 121 5.00 11% 8.20    
3  SPUN AND WON Jul21 May09 Apr04 Feb09 Jan12 (dutrow richar)FRANCO MANUEL 121 3.50 10% 9.30    
4  SQUIRE CREEK Dec29 Dec06 Nov15 Sep27 Aug18 (arriaga)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 116 8.00    
5  MIDLANER Dec14 Nov04 Oct22 Oct02 Sep02 (moore michae)HADDOCK DEXTER 123 10.00    
6  TOXIC GRAY Dec28 Nov16 Oct24 Sep27 Jul05 (miceli michael)LEZCANO JOSE 123 1.20 46% 1.20    
7  KING ANGELO Jun07 Oct12 Sep16 Jul28 May20 (arriag)MARAGH RAMSAY 121 12.00 6% 15.40    
 
AQU-6   01/18/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($30K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STRONG LIGHT Jan01 Dec12 Nov23 Nov16 Oct13 (samsunda)VILLA FAVINHO 123 12.00    
2  WHISKEY N SODA Dec12 Aug16 Jul25 Jun01 Apr20 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 123 2.00 45% 1.20    
3  SUGAR GRAY LEONARD Jan01 Dec13 Nov08 Oct10 Sep19 (sciacca gary)COA J 123 30.00    
4  WINE RESPONSIBLY Dec29 Dec14 Nov10 Oct13 Aug16 (bhigroo)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  WINTER'S GHOST Jan02 Dec06 Nov23 Nov14 Oct19 (rodrig)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 6.00 20% 4.10    
6  SAGAMORE MISCHIEF Dec14 Nov15 Oct05 Jun29 Jun09 (rodriguez gust)LEZCANO JOSE 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  STJAMES Dec28 Apr06 Mar15 Feb11 Jan12 (sells rachel)HARKIE K 123 8.00    
8  INDIANQUEST Jan01 Dec12 Nov24 Oct19 Jul04 (ibrahim )DAVIS A 123 12.00    
9  STEADY PROGRESS Jan01 Dec12 Nov24 Nov16 Feb29 (chatterpaul)KOCAKAYA GOKHAN 123 30.00    
10  ICE ROAD Jan01 Dec12 Nov10 Oct25 Sep21 (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 123 4.00 14% 6.00    
SCR  HELIUM Jan01 Dec17 Feb25 Feb11 Jan01 (ness jam)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 118 10.00    
 
AQU-7   01/18/2025 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($82K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RADIO RED Jun07 Apr12 Mar02 Jan18 Dec07 (gargan danny)CARMOUCHE K 121 3.00    
1A  CRAZY MASON Nov30 May11 Mar09 Feb10 Jan14 (sacco g)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 116 3.00 36% 1.80    
2  TIVY Dec28 Nov16 Oct05 Aug23 Jul14 (antonucci jena)COA J 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  COMMUTED Dec07 Nov10 Sep29 Jul13 Jun21 (falcone )GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  QUICK TO ACCUSE Dec07 Oct05 Jun08 Apr26 Mar24 (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 121 2.50    
5  BEAVER STATE Dec06 Nov09 Oct10 Sep22 Aug18 (bailes rober)LUZZI J 123 12.00    
6  SILO RIDGE Feb10 Jan13 Dec09 Aug20 Jul21 (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 121 6.00    
7  PRINTRACK Nov30 Oct17 Sep21 Aug10 Jul25 (rodrig)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 6.00 31% 2.20    
8  AIR OF DEFIANCE Dec07 Oct04 Oct18 Aug25   (summers chad)CIVACI SAHIN 121 12.00    
9  LIGHT THE WAY Dec07 Nov11 Oct14 Aug28 Jul13 (nevin michell)SILVERA RUBEN 123 30.00    
10  SHIPSATIONAL Nov30 May27 May20 Mar22 Mar09 (barker r)CANCEL ERIC 121 10.00 8% 11.50    
 
AQU-8   01/18/2025 5940ft DIRT RC11 FAST Busanda Purse ($125K) 3 F PT- 3:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHARP SMILE Nov21 Oct13 Jul21     (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of CHOCOLATE POP by CUVEE)
2  BEAUTIFUL BLOME Nov02 Oct09 Sep11 Aug10 Jul11 (pecoraro anthon)CANCEL ERIC 122 20.00    
  (by BLOFELD out of BEST MOM EVER by AFTER MARKET)
3  RAMIFY Dec08         (brown c)LEZCANO JOSE 118 2.50 36% 1.70    
  (by MUNNINGS out of CHAMBER by TAPIT)
SCR  BLESS THE BROKEN Dec07 Nov15 Oct18 Jul05   (walden willia)SILVERA RUBEN 118 15.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of THE NIGHTINGALE by TAPIT)
SCR  CARMEN'S CANDY JAR Jan17 Dec07 Oct27 Sep22 Aug25 (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 118 8.00    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of NO MO SHOPPING by UNCLE MO)
6  RUTH Dec13         (pletcher)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 8.00 22% 3.70    
  (by UNCLE MO out of PEPPY RAFAELA by BERNARDINI)
7  MY SHERRONA Dec08 Nov08       (handal)MARAGH RAMSAY 118 4.50    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of CLASS INCLUDED by INCLUDE)
SCR  BERNIEANDTHEROSE Nov24 Nov03 Oct05     (schettino domin)DAVIS KATIE 118 12.00    
  (by ACCELERATE out of BERNING ROSE by FREUD)
9  RUNNING AWAY Nov30 Oct19 Jul21     (ward a)CIVACI SAHIN 118 3.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of ALLEZ MARIE by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
 
AQU-9   01/18/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($34K) 3 ALL PT- 4:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WAITING FOR A. I. Nov27         (grusmark kar)HARKIE K 120 30.00    
2  GOODBYE Dec07         (handal )ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 115 20.00    
3  VAMONOS VAMONOS Dec28 Nov14 Aug01 Jun20 May10 (toscano t)DAVIS KATIE 120 4.00 24% 3.20    
4  WHISKEY FRENS Dec08 Oct26       (dutrow richard)LUZZI J 120 3.50    
5  JASONJET         (sacco gregory)FRANCO MANUEL 120 8.00    
6  CADA DIA MEJOR Dec28         (kantarmaci ilk)CIVACI SAHIN 120 6.00 47% 1.10    
7  MONOMOY BEACH Dec28 Nov29       (nevin mi)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 12.00    
8  SWAY THE JURY         (englehart jer)OLVER MADISON 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
9  MONTE AVI Dec07 Nov02 Oct05 Aug31 Jul19 (hennig mark)CARMOUCHE K 120 8.00    
10  TEN RUN RULE         (englehar)DAVIS A 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  ROCKED OUT Dec28 Nov15 Oct05 Sep02 Jul19 (de paz)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 15.00    
12  WHITE BLUE Nov30         (salazar marco)SILVERA RUBEN 120 30.00    
13  PLAY THE GRAY Nov20 Nov04 Oct19 Aug20 Aug08 (velazquez d)SALGADO ANTHONY 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.