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Handicappers' Race Results

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The Longshot Hunter!


Churchill Downs
Friday - November 15, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

			Wgr	Pick						Tot	Bet	Bet	Winning		Pay
			Type	Numbers						Tkts	Unit	Amt	Numbers		Amt			Profit				ROI

CD-2			WIN	(4/1)						2	$2.00	$4.00	4		$5.74			$1.74				44%
			DD	(1/5/2)-(4/1)						6	$1.00	$6.00	5-4		$8.09			$2.09				35%
CD-4			WIN	(2/6/1)						3	$2.00	$6.00	6		$27.36			$21.36				356%
CD-5			DD	(2/6/1)-(7/6/3/2)						12	$1.00	$12.00	6-3		$47.63			$35.63				297%
CD-6			PK3	(2/6/1)-(7/6/3/2)-(6/7/1/10/8)						60	$0.50	$30.00	6-3-6		$67.98			$37.98				127%
CD-7			DD	(6/7/1/10/8)-(3/2/6/5)						20	$1.00	$20.00	6-3		$27.38			$7.38				37%
CD-8			WIN	(2/1/11/7/8)						5	$2.00	$10.00	11		$17.28			$7.28				73%
			EXA	(2/1/11/7/8)-(2/1/11/7/8)						20	$2.00	$40.00	11-2		$87.36			$47.36				118%
			DD	(3/2/6/5)-(2/1/11/7/8)						20	$1.00	$20.00	3-11		$64.55			$44.55				223%
			PK3	(6/7/1/10/8)-(3/2/6/5)-(2/1/11/7/8)						100	$0.50	$50.00	6-3-11		$84.53			$34.53				69%

Simulator Race results


CD-1			11/15/2024		3960ft	DIRT	RC4	GOOD	Maiden Claimer ($100K)					Purse ($62K)			3UP		M/F		PT- 1:00
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
5	QUIET CONFIDENCE									(walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122						1.40		30%		2.30		0.73	W
4	QUEEN CLANCY									(von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124						4.00						9.52
1	ENDLESS GLOW									(ramirez ricardo)VAZQUEZ A 122						2.00		34%		2.00		3.36	S
3	LOCK IT UP									(drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 122						5.00						4.62
2	MORINGA									(pinzon maria)BEJARANO R 122						6.00		9%		9.60		6.39

CD-2			11/15/2024		4620ft	DIRT	RC4	FAST	Maiden Claimer ($30K)					Purse ($50K)			3UP		ALL		PT- 1:29
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
4	FAST SOLUTION									(sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122						3.00		59%		0.70		1.87	W
5	SKELLY ROAD									(asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122						2.00						2.91
3	ZAPHOD									(walden wi)TORRES A 124						3.50		★				1.95	S
6	AHUMADO									(meredith char)CANUTO THIAGO 124						4.50						11.83
1	MORAL DILEMMA									(schultz l)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122						6.00		5%		19.00		4.20
SCR	SHAKO									(williamson b)BARBOSA CARLOS 122						6.00

CD-3			11/15/2024		4620ft	DIRT	RC7	FAST	Claiming ($30K)					Purse ($54K)			3UP		M/F		PT- 1:58
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
8	CAIRO STREET									(wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118						4.00						5.30
5	SPLASH MASTER									(foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118						3.00		60%		0.70		3.42	P
2	CURLIN'S MAGIC									(mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118						8.00		6%		16.50		4.98	S
6	EDGE OF TOWN									(pessin l)ORTIZ L 118						8.00		5%		19.00		3.44
3	TAMMY'S CRUISER									(mccarthy )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118						3.50		8%		11.90		4.02
4	SMART WITH HEART									(bahena ism)VILLARREAL OSCAR 118						15.00						35.74
7	CANDY CRAZE									(kordenbrock matt)BEJARANO R 118						6.00						5.50
1	CAMP AKEELA									(amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120						4.50						16.95

CD-4			11/15/2024		5280ft	TURF	RC3	FIRM	Alw Opt Clm ($100K)					Purse ($141K)			3UP		M/F		PT- 2:27
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
2	SHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY									(shirer matt)CONCEPCION AXEL 121						3.00		45%		1.20		1.31	DQ↓3
6	CALLIE'S GRIT									(sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 121						4.00		25%		3.00		12.68	W
5	STYLISH SUE									(sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120						2.50						3.93
3	TAKE A STAND									(oliver victori)MACHADO LUAN 121						6.00						10.78
7	SELENAIA (IRE)									(thomas jo)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121						12.00						9.38
4	WATCH THIS BIRDIE									(correas ignaci)ORTIZ L 121						3.50		★				3.19
1	JOIN THE DANCE									(stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 121						8.00		5%		19.00		10.82

CD-5			11/15/2024		4620ft	DIRT	RC7	FAST	Claiming ($80K)					Purse ($73K)			3UP		ALL		PT- 2:57
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
3	TWO EAGLES RIVER									(hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 120						2.50		18%		4.70		1.69	W
4	FIRST PLAYER									(mcgee paul)BEJARANO R 120						10.00						9.92
8	BLACK POWDER									(maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120						3.50						7.36
7	PROPRIETARY TRADE									(maker michael )ORTIZ L 118						3.00		31%		2.20		2.41
5	PANCAKE HOUSE									(blair jordan)CHUAN MARTIN 120						10.00						10.68
2	REFUAH									(sweezey kent)VAZQUEZ A 120						15.00		5%		19.00		18.90
1	HOW'S UR ATTITUDE									(ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118						12.00						12.26
6	POWERFUL									(asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120						4.50		19%		4.20		6.92

CD-6			11/15/2024		3300ft	DIRT	RC5	FAST	Maiden Sp Wt					Purse ($120K)			2		F		PT- 3:26
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
6	CARIBBEAN WIND									(ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 119						3.00		46%		1.20		3.89	W
		(by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of ANTILLIA by SLEW OF ANGELS)
1	STAY CLASSY									(romans dale)LANERIE J 119						5.00		10%		8.80		1.83	P
		(by PROMISES FULFILLED out of ELOWEASEL by CITY ZIP)
13	RATIONAL THEORY									(asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114						8.00						10.69
		(by PRACTICAL JOKE out of AUNT DOROTHY by UNCLE MO)
8	SPLENDID (IRE)									(mackey wayne)MACHADO LUAN 119						15.00		5%		19.00		31.39
		(by MASTERY out of PRANCING by TAPIT)
4	SWEET BEBSI									(walsh d)ACHARD ALEX 119						15.00						25.16
		(by VIOLENCE out of SWEET NKOSI by A. P. WARRIOR)
9	TRUTHORCONSEQUENCE									(catalano )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119						6.00						10.65
		(by TOM'S D'ETAT out of SCHON by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
10	CHANDON									(barker w)SAEZ GABRIEL 119						20.00		5%		19.00		76.93
		(by AUDIBLE out of BOUDICEA'S REVENGE by WARRIOR'S REWARD)
12	BEADED									(devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 119						12.00						33.98
		(by AUTHENTIC out of LASSOFTHEMOHICANS by INDIAN CHARLIE)
7	DESERT ADVENTURE									(harty eoin)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119						4.50		21%		3.70		4.65
		(by HARD SPUN out of DUBAI ESCAPADE by AWESOME AGAIN)
3	DIVA BEACH									(calhoun wil)CONCEPCION AXEL 119						6.00						7.13
		(by OMAHA BEACH out of MISSY'S ADVANTAGE by TACTICAL ADVANTAGE)
5	REAGAN ALICE									(arnold georg)MONCADA IRVING 112						15.00						27.15
		(by INTO MISCHIEF out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
11	EASILY SIDETRACKED									(terranova p)SAEZ LUIS 119						12.00						24.96
		(by MCKINZIE out of MONTANA NATIVE by YES IT'S TRUE)
SCR	B D'S ANGEL									(duvall william)ROCCO S 119						20.00
		(by DEMARCHELIER out of BIG IDEA by ORB)
SCR	PINK DINI									(wismer s)CEDILLO ABEL 119						10.00
		(by BERNARDINI out of PRO PINK by TOUCH GOLD)
SCR	RED ZONE									(desormeaux j)TORRES A 119						15.00
		(by DAREDEVIL out of CARLETON GRINNELL by ROYAL ACADEMY)
SCR	WICKED EYES									(torres conc)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119						12.00
		(by DIALED IN out of HAIL TO ROCKNROLL by SCAT DADDY)

CD-7			11/15/2024		5610ft	DIRT	RC3	FAST	Alw Opt Clm ($100K)					Purse ($127K)			2		F		PT- 3:55
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
3	AMARTH									(kenneally )GAFFALIONE TYLER 120						2.00		33%		2.10		2.91	W
4	BLESS THE BROKEN									(walden william)VAZQUEZ A 120						12.00						17.86
2	STABLE CURRENCY									(block chris)SAEZ LUIS 122						3.00		30%		2.30		2.92	S
7	MIZMALICE									(hiles rick)BEJARANO R 120						12.00						5.24
1	QUINN'S PROMISE									(romans dale)LANERIE J 122						4.00						5.64
6	EUNOMIA									(oliver vict)CONCEPCION AXEL 122						2.50		16%		5.20		2.18
5	RUN CAMILA RUN									(decker an)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 120						20.00		5%		19.00		39.37

CD-8			11/15/2024		3300ft	TURF	RC3	FIRM	Alw Opt Clm ($80K)					Purse ($134K)			3UP		ALL		PT- 4:25
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
11	MASSETO (GB)									(casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 120						4.00		10%		8.80		7.64	W
2	MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE									(maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120						2.50		36%		1.80		2.62	P
4	B D VALESKI									(foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120						8.00						19.74
5	GILDED RULER									(sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 120						12.00						8.62
8	PORTOFINO									(orseno jose)CONCEPCION AXEL 120						15.00		5%		19.00		16.85
10	BAD BEAT BRIAN									(vanden britt)EMIGH A 120						10.00						6.51
7	URBAN LEGEND									(d'angelo jose )ORTIZ L 120						4.00		7%		12.60		2.95
9	FOXTROTANNA									(wojczynski j)MONCADA IRVING 113						12.00						36.76
3	BUSHIDO									(hernandez rey)MORALES EDGAR 120						10.00						24.43
1	OUTADORE									(kenneally eddi)MACHADO LUAN 120						3.50		25%		3.00		5.20
SCR	BIG HAT WILLIE									(jacobson )CAMACHO JR 120						15.00
SCR	FAST JACK									(becker sc)CAMACHO JR 120						20.00
SCR	FINSTER									(harty eoin)BEJARANO R 118						10.00
SCR	HIGH FRONT									(asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 115						20.00

CD-9			11/15/2024		3960ft	DIRT	RC7	FAST	Claiming ($16K)					Purse ($32K)			3UP		ALL		PT- 4:55
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
8	ICEATUDE									(cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120						10.00						15.17
10	HUNTERTOWN									(hernandez rey)MORALES EDGAR 120						20.00						35.65
5	SERGEANT GUMP									(decker an)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 118						10.00		8%		11.70		33.13	S
1	SHAKIN LOOSE									(molloy thomas)SAEZ GABRIEL 118						20.00						18.02
12	IMPROBABLE JOURNEY									(maker j)VAZQUEZ A 120						4.00		20%		3.90		1.76
11	CITY OF CLOUDS									(combs bent)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120						12.00						4.91
3	UNCLE BERLEY									(tomlinson mi)TORRES A 120						3.50		20%		4.10		4.24
9	BETTERING									(garcia genaro)CHUAN MARTIN 118						10.00						22.47
4	BYE BYE LIAM									(asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113						10.00		5%		19.00		4.89
2	SOUTH DECATUR									(galindo-tor)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120						30.00						61.81
6	CHITWOOD									(foley greg)MONCADA IRVING 113						12.00						9.95
SCR	DUTCH MILLS									(compton greg)ORTIZ L 118						3.00		27%		2.60



	Labels:
	M/L	Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
	W/P	Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
	B/E	Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
	F/O	Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

	Two Groups of Contenders:
	Win Contenders
		The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
	Place/Show Contenders
		The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

	Legal:
	Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.