Handicappers' Race Results
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Churchill Downs
Friday - November 15, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
CD-1   Win (1/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 1 $3.46 $3.46  
CD-2   Win (4/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 4 1 1 $5.74 $5.74 1.74
CD-3   Win (5/3/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 8 1 0 $12.60  
CD-4   Win (2/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 6 1 1 $27.36 $27.36 21.36
CD-5   Win (7/6/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 3 1 1 $5.38 $5.38  
CD-6   Win (6/7/1/10/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 6 1 1 $9.78 $9.78  
CD-7   Win (3/2/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 3 1 1 $7.82 $7.82  
CD-8   Win (2/1/11/7/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 11 1 1 $17.28 $17.28 7.28
CD-9   Win (7/12/3/5/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 8 1 0 $32.34  
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   11/15/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($62K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:214 :452 :574     1:104   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  QUIET CONFIDENCE 5 2 13 11½   12½ 11½ (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.40 30% 2.30 0.73 W
4  QUEEN CLANCY 4 1 23 21½   22½ 21½ (von d)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 4.00 9.52  
1  ENDLESS GLOW 1 4 33 32½   33 33¾ (ramirez g)VAZQUEZ A 122 2.00 34% 2.00 3.36 S
3  LOCK IT UP 3 5 45 46   46½ 46¾ (drury thomas)HERNANDEZ J 122 5.00 4.62  
2  MORINGA 2 3 55½ 58½   511½ 515½ (pinzon maria)BEJARANO R 122 6.00 9% 9.60 6.39  
 
CD-2   11/15/2024 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:29
See original race card.
:23 :454 1:11     1:243   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  FAST SOLUTION 3 2 1nk 1½   2½ 1¼ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00 59% 0.70 1.87 W
5  SKELLY ROAD 4 1 2nk 2½   1½ 2¼ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 2.00 2.91  
3  ZAPHOD 2 5 56 45   33 3¼ (walden will)TORRES A 124 3.50 ★ 1.95 S
6  AHUMADO 5 3 31 33   43½ 44¾ (meredith charle)CANUTO THIAGO 124 4.50 11.83  
1  MORAL DILEMMA 1 4 43½ 55½   511½ 521¼ (schultz lin)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 6.00 5% 19.00 4.20  
SCR  SHAKO               (williamson bri)BARBOSA CARLOS 122 6.00    
 
CD-3   11/15/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:58
See original race card.
:231 :463 1:112     1:243   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  CAIRO STREET 8 7 63 3½   14½ 12½ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 4.00 5.30  
5  SPLASH MASTER 5 5 52 41½   24½ 22½ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 60% 0.70 3.42 P
2  CURLIN'S MAGIC 2 6 85½ 83¾   46 32½ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 6% 16.50 4.98 S
6  EDGE OF TOWN 6 8 73½ 73¼   56½ 43½ (pessin l)ORTIZ L 118 8.00 5% 19.00 3.44  
3  TAMMY'S CRUISER 3 3 2nk 2nk   34½ 54½ (mccarthy mi)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 3.50 8% 11.90 4.02  
4  SMART WITH HEART 4 1 3½ 51¾   68½ 68¾ (bahena ismae)VILLARREAL OSCAR 118 15.00 35.74  
7  CANDY CRAZE 7 2 41½ 61¾   710 79½ (kordenbrock matt)BEJARANO R 118 6.00 5.50  
1  CAMP AKEELA 1 4 1nk 1nk   811½ 815¾ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 120 4.50 16.95  
 
CD-4   11/15/2024 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:27
See original race card.
:234 :48 1:111 1:224   1:344   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  SHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY 2 2 21½ 21½ 2½ 2nk 1½ (shirer a)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 3.00 45% 1.20 1.31 DQ↓3
6  CALLIE'S GRIT 6 1 11½ 11½ 1½ 1nk 2½ (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.00 25% 3.00 12.68 W
5  STYLISH SUE 5 4 43 43 31½ 3½ 31 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 3.93  
3  TAKE A STAND 3 5 55 64¾ 65 53 42 (oliver victoria)MACHADO LUAN 121 6.00 10.78  
7  SELENAIA (IRE) 7 6 65½ 54½ 53 42½ 52½ (thomas jona)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 12.00 9.38  
4  WATCH THIS BIRDIE 4 7 78½ 77¾ 76 74½ 63¾ (correas ignacio )ORTIZ L 121 3.50 ★ 3.19  
1  JOIN THE DANCE 1 3 33 33 42½ 64 710½ (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 121 8.00 5% 19.00 10.82  
 
CD-5   11/15/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($80K) Purse ($73K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:57
See original race card.
:221 :45 1:102     1:224   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  TWO EAGLES RIVER 3 6 77½ 88¼   4¾ 11½ (hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 120 2.50 18% 4.70 1.69 W
4  FIRST PLAYER 4 3 23½ 33   2nk 21½ (mcgee paul)BEJARANO R 120 10.00 9.92  
8  BLACK POWDER 8 8 56 45   51¼ 34¾ (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 7.36  
7  PROPRIETARY TRADE 7 2 33½ 22½   3.2 46½ (maker j)ORTIZ L 118 3.00 31% 2.20 2.41  
5  PANCAKE HOUSE 5 4 45½ 56   62¾ 58¼ (blair jordan)CHUAN MARTIN 120 10.00 10.68  
2  REFUAH 2 7 88½ 66   73¼ 68½ (sweezey kent)VAZQUEZ A 120 15.00 5% 19.00 18.90  
1  HOW'S UR ATTITUDE 1 1 13½ 12½   1nk 78½ (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00 12.26  
6  POWERFUL 6 5 67 76¼   84¾ 810 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 120 4.50 19% 4.20 6.92  
 
CD-6   11/15/2024 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:26
See original race card.
:223 :453       :574   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  CARIBBEAN WIND 5 2 2nk 1nk   11½ 14¼ (ward wesley )CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00 46% 1.20 3.89 W
1  STAY CLASSY 1 3 32 32   33½ 24¼ (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 5.00 10% 8.80 1.83 P
13  RATIONAL THEORY 12 6 1nk 2nk   21½ 34½ (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 8.00 10.69  
8  SPLENDID (IRE) 7 8 42½ 42½   47 411¾ (mackey wayne)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00 5% 19.00 31.39  
4  SWEET BEBSI 3 4 95 76¼   610½ 513¼ (walsh d)ACHARD ALEX 119 15.00 25.16  
9  TRUTHORCONSEQUENCE 8 9 84¾ 107½   812 614¼ (catalano wa)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 6.00 10.65  
10  CHANDON 9 11 118 97¼   912¼ 715 (barker w)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00 5% 19.00 76.93  
12  BEADED 11 12 1210½ 1110   1113¼ 815¾ (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 33.98  
7  DESERT ADVENTURE 6 7 52¾ 66   710½ 916½ (harty eoin)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 21% 3.70 4.65  
3  DIVA BEACH 2 5 73¼ 53½   58½ 1016½ (calhoun willi)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 6.00 7.13  
5  REAGAN ALICE 4 1 63¼ 86¼   1012¼ 1117¼ (arnold george )MONCADA IRVING 112 15.00 27.15  
11  EASILY SIDETRACKED 10 10 106½ 1214   1233¼ 1273¾ (terranova p)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00 24.96  
SCR  B D'S ANGEL               (duvall e)ROCCO S 119 20.00    
SCR  PINK DINI               (wismer s)CEDILLO ABEL 119 10.00    
SCR  RED ZONE               (desormeaux k)TORRES A 119 15.00    
SCR  WICKED EYES               (torres concep)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00    
 
CD-7   11/15/2024 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 F PT- 3:55
See original race card.
:241 :484 1:132 1:391   1:454   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  AMARTH 3 2 21 41½ 53¼ 32 1nk (kenneally ed)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.00 33% 2.10 2.91 W
4  BLESS THE BROKEN 4 3 41¼ 52½ 42¾ 42½ 2nk (walden william)VAZQUEZ A 120 12.00 17.86  
2  STABLE CURRENCY 2 7 62¼ 31½ 2nk 1nk 31¾ (block chris)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.00 30% 2.30 2.92 S
7  MIZMALICE 7 1 11 11 1nk 2nk 42 (hiles rick)BEJARANO R 120 12.00 5.24  
1  QUINN'S PROMISE 1 6 52¼ 62¾ 65¼ 52¾ 52¼ (romans dale)LANERIE J 122 4.00 5.64  
6  EUNOMIA 6 5 31 21 3.2 64¼ 66¾ (oliver victor)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 2.50 16% 5.20 2.18  
5  RUN CAMILA RUN 5 4 72¾ 73¾ 75¾ 710¼ 715 (decker anna)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 120 20.00 5% 19.00 39.37  
 
CD-8   11/15/2024 3300ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:25
See original race card.
:213 :442       :554   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
11  MASSETO (GB) 10 10 96½ 96¾   4¼ 1¼ (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 120 4.00 10% 8.80 7.64 W
2  MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE 2 9 108 107¾   92½ 2¼ (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 2.50 36% 1.80 2.62 P
4  B D VALESKI 4 7 84½ 85¼   81 31½ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 8.00 19.74  
5  GILDED RULER 5 2 73½ 75   6½ 42¼ (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 120 12.00 8.62  
8  PORTOFINO 7 5 63 63½   5½ 52¼ (orseno joseph)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 15.00 5% 19.00 16.85  
10  BAD BEAT BRIAN 9 6 52½ 42   1nk 62½ (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 120 10.00 6.51  
7  URBAN LEGEND 6 8 41½ 52½   2nk 75¼ (d'angelo fr)ORTIZ L 120 4.00 7% 12.60 2.95  
9  FOXTROTANNA 8 4 31 1½   3.2 88 (wojczynski jus)MONCADA IRVING 113 12.00 36.76  
3  BUSHIDO 3 3 2½ 2½   7½ 98¾ (hernandez rey)MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00 24.43  
1  OUTADORE 1 1 1½ 3½   103 1013¾ (kenneally eddie)MACHADO LUAN 120 3.50 25% 3.00 5.20  
SCR  BIG HAT WILLIE               (jacobson da)CAMACHO JR 120 15.00    
SCR  FAST JACK               (becker scot)CAMACHO JR 120 20.00    
SCR  FINSTER               (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 118 10.00    
SCR  HIGH FRONT               (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 115 20.00    
 
CD-9   11/15/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:214 :461 :582     1:112   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  ICEATUDE 7 3 75 51½   1nk 1¾ (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 10.00 15.17  
10  HUNTERTOWN 9 1 43 41½   4¼ 2¾ (hernandez rey)MORALES EDGAR 120 20.00 35.65  
5  SERGEANT GUMP 5 4 2½ 1½   3.2 3¾ (decker anna)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 118 10.00 8% 11.70 33.13 S
1  SHAKIN LOOSE 1 11 86 74½   62¼ 41 (molloy thomas)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00 18.02  
12  IMPROBABLE JOURNEY 11 5 53 31   2nk 51¼ (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 120 4.00 20% 3.90 1.76  
11  CITY OF CLOUDS 10 7 96½ 85   73¼ 62¼ (combs bentle)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 12.00 4.91  
3  UNCLE BERLEY 3 10 117¾ 116¾   96¼ 75¼ (tomlinson mich)TORRES A 120 3.50 20% 4.10 4.24  
9  BETTERING 8 9 107½ 105¾   85¾ 87¼ (garcia genaro)CHUAN MARTIN 118 10.00 22.47  
4  BYE BYE LIAM 4 6 1½ 2½   5¾ 97¾ (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 10.00 5% 19.00 4.89  
2  SOUTH DECATUR 2 8 64½ 95½   107¼ 1010¾ (galindo-torre)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 30.00 61.81  
6  CHITWOOD 6 2 32½ 64   118¾ 1114½ (foley greg)MONCADA IRVING 113 12.00 9.95  
SCR  DUTCH MILLS               (compton greg)ORTIZ L 118 3.00 27% 2.60    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.