Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Thistledown
Tuesday - July 23, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TDN-1   WIN (5/6/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/6/7/3)-(5/6/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/6/7/3)-(5/6/7/3)-(5/6/7/3) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
    DD (5/6/7/3)-(8/7/9/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/6/7/3)-(8/7/9/6)-(4/1/8) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TDN-2   WIN (8/7/9/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/7/9/6)-(8/7/9/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/7/9/6)-(8/7/9/6)-(8/7/9/6) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
    DD (8/7/9/6)-(4/1/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/7/9/6)-(4/1/8)-(2/7/4/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TDN-3   WIN (4/1/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/8)-(4/1/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/8)-(4/1/8)-(4/1/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (4/1/8)-(2/7/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/1/8)-(2/7/4/1)-(2/4/1/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TDN-4   WIN (2/7/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/7/4/1)-(2/7/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/7/4/1)-(2/7/4/1)-(2/7/4/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
    DD (2/7/4/1)-(2/4/1/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/7/4/1)-(2/4/1/5)-(5/1) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
TDN-5   WIN (2/4/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/4/1/5)-(2/4/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/4/1/5)-(2/4/1/5)-(2/4/1/5) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
    DD (2/4/1/5)-(5/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (2/4/1/5)-(5/1)-(1/2/3/4) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
TDN-6   WIN (5/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/1)-(5/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    DD (5/1)-(1/2/3/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (5/1)-(1/2/3/4)-(8/1/4/5) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
TDN-7   WIN (1/2/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/3/4)-(1/2/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/2/3/4)-(1/2/3/4)-(1/2/3/4) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
    DD (1/2/3/4)-(8/1/4/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
TDN-8   WIN (8/1/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/1/4/5)-(8/1/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/1/4/5)-(8/1/4/5)-(8/1/4/5) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TDN-1   07/23/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($38.4K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HARTSTEIN Jul04 Jun05 May08 Apr24 Apr03 (at)SALAZAR FERNANDO 119 8.00    
2  ROLL A QUARTERS Jul04 Jun08 May04 Apr23   (trevino ste)PETERSON FERRIN 121 3.50    
3  RUN RED RUN May04 Apr13 Mar27 Mar13 Feb29 (cline robert )CEDILLO MAURO 115 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  A PRAYER FOR KIDS Jul04 Jun18 Jun08 May15 Oct30 (rettele ri)HERNANDEZ ALVARO 119 15.00    
5  WOLFINE Jul04 Jun18 Apr24 Oct10 Oct03 (winters miche)SIMPSON JASON 119 5.00 48% 1.10    
6  LEROYISALAGNIAPPE Jul04 Jun18 May30 Apr24 Apr03 (tumblin andrew)DIAZ I 119 4.00 12% 7.10    
7  EKATI'S WAY Jun27 Jun07 May04 Apr13 Mar08 (cline robert )BRACHO A 119 2.50 11% 8.30    
8  COLOR BEARER Jul04 Jun05 May08 Apr24 Feb14 (skerre)BATISTA ALBERTO 119 6.00    
 
TDN-2   07/23/2024 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($8K) Purse ($20K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JOKEMEISTER Jul02 Jun04 May20 Apr25 Apr11 (sondej amy)TOLEDO S 119 6.00    
2  POWERFUL MOON Jun22 Jun04 May14 Apr23 Apr11 (ray)GIRON ALEJANDRO 121 10.00    
3  CRYO Jul08 Jun24 Dec06 Nov21 Nov08 (winters miche)SIMPSON JASON 123 15.00    
SCR  THE DRAKE Nov20 Oct06 Aug22 Jul31 Jul06 (flores chri)PETERSON FERRIN 119 12.00    
5  SMOKIN' HOT Jul02 Jun03 May14 Apr27 Apr13 (puhl kim)GONZALEZ A 123 3.50    
6  MAKING ME CRAZY Jul02 Mar19 Mar06 Feb19 Feb05 (mahan josep)SEVERINO VICTOR 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  I'LL FIGURE IT OUT Jul02 Jun11 May20 Apr22 Feb24 (sk)SALAZAR FERNANDO 121 6.00 24% 3.10    
8  ROCKSTAR RO Jul10 Jun26 Jun11 May29 May20 (bailey ricardo)HOUGHTON D 123 2.50 27% 2.80    
9  REAL NAUGHTY Jul08 Jun13 May21 Apr23 Apr01 (cline robert )BRACHO A 123 5.00 21% 3.90    
 
TDN-3   07/23/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($28K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MALICED Jul08 Jun11 May22 Jul25 Jun24 (urieta johanna)PEREZ A 123 4.50 12% 7.60    
2  DISTORTED SECRETS Jun10 Mar14 Feb04 Dec29 Sep10 (rone mike)HOUGHTON D 123 2.50    
SCR  TWILIGHT VISION Jul02 May01 Oct01 Sep13 Aug10 (jackson r)AVILES YAN 123 8.00    
4  BLUSHING BETTY Jul02 Jun11 Sep20 Aug29 Aug02 (shanyfelt vale)GONZALEZ A 123 3.00 53% 0.90    
5  TIZ INDEPENDENCE Jul02 Jun11 May22 May01 Feb28 (skerrett jeff)BRACHO A 123 6.00    
6  WINE ME UP BABY Jul08 May22 Apr13 Mar26 Oct05 (rivera)BATISTA ALBERTO 123 12.00    
SCR  SONNET Oct28 Sep26 Aug12 Jul17 Jun12 (rotunno sydney)DIAZ I 123 10.00    
8  R THREE ANGELS Jun19 May09 Mar18 Feb29 Feb06 (da)SALAZAR FERNANDO 123 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
TDN-4   07/23/2024 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($26.4K) 2 ALL PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ED'S REWARD May29         (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by IMPROBABLE out of LEONA'S REWARD by PARENTS' REWARD)
2  STREETS OF WAR Jun26         (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 118 1.60 31% 2.20    
  (by WAR OF WILL out of RUE DE L'ANGE by STREET SENSE)
3  CHALON'S FIRST         (rone mike)RIVERA R 118 3.50    
  (by NYQUIST out of CHALON by DIALED IN)
4  JENN SWEET JENN         (rin)GIRON ALEJANDRO 115 8.00 14% 6.20    
  (by DAK ATTACK out of GISELLE MA BELLE by INDIAN OCEAN)
SCR  PAMMY SUE Jun26         (zielinski r)PETERSON FERRIN 115 15.00    
  (by MASTERY out of CHARM CITY GIRL by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
6  MY BABY BULLET Jul08         (langley )FERNANDEZ R 118 15.00    
  (by COPPER BULLET out of LUCY NATION by TAPITURE)
7  SLEW CROWN         (rini anthony)FELICIANO R 115 2.50 21% 3.70    
  (by AWESOME SLEW out of CLOUDY DAY by CROWN OF THORNS)
 
TDN-5   07/23/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BAD LITTLE BEAST Jul09 Jun11 May22 Nov19 Oct25 (winters miche)SIMPSON JASON 123 1.80 10% 9.50    
2  MON CAMO Jun24 May20 Oct23 Oct06 Sep18 (shanyfelt vale)GONZALEZ A 123 4.50 33% 2.10    
3  JACK'S ADVANTAGE Jul09 Jun19 May27 May14 Apr23 (schuster ro)CESPEDES JHORMA 118 15.00    
4  FIRST CITIZEN Jun26 Jun11 May27 Aug02 Jul12 (jackson r)AVILES YAN 123 3.50 29% 2.50    
5  NOBLE BEHAVIOR Jun17 Nov15 Nov01 Oct09 Sep27 (winters michell)FELICIANO R 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  MASTER Jul08 Jun17 Jan31 Dec30 Dec06 (casalinova tina)BOWEN ROCCO 123 15.00    
7  SAHM TEQUILA Jul02 Jun11 May22 Apr13 Mar06 (lopez enriqu)HALDAR J 123 2.00    
 
TDN-6   07/23/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAPTURE MI Jun27 Jun08 May23 Mar26 Mar11 (vlaun manuel)DIAZ I 119 8.00 5% 17.60    
2  HOUSED Jun27 Jun08 May23 Apr29 Feb19 (yoder )BATISTA ALBERTO 119 3.50    
SCR  ARMOR PIERCING Jul17 Jun25 Jun08 May28 Jan15 (vlaun m)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 119 5.00    
4  GRAND DEAL Jun27 Jun08 May23 May14 Oct30 (schuster robin)PEREZ A 119 10.00    
5  PLEASANT VALIANT Jun27 May23 Apr19 Apr05 Mar15 (wolochuk david)BOWEN ROCCO 119 2.50 35% 1.90    
SCR  TIME THE AVENGER Apr29 Feb29 Feb01 Jan11 Jan02 (farrior anthony)RIVERA R 119 1.60    
 
TDN-7   07/23/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNESCORTED Jul04 Jun10 Apr25 Oct23 Oct01 (urieta j)FERNANDEZ R 119 2.00 35% 1.80    
2  QADIRA Jun24 Jun04 May15 Apr29 Apr04 (urieta johanna)HOUGHTON D 115 2.50 18% 4.50    
3  MALI BALI Jun24 Jun04 May15 Apr25 Mar26 (morales sau)SEVERINO VICTOR 119 3.50 15% 5.60    
4  SURPRISED GEM Jun24 Jun10 May30 May15 Apr25 (bai)GIRON ALEJANDRO 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  MO RISSA Jul04 Jun24 Jun10 May15 Jan03 (skerrett jeffrey)AVILES YAN 119 8.00    
6  HEART OF THE BEAST Jun24 Jun04 Mar12 Feb22 Feb06 (vlaun manuel)DIAZ I 119 10.00    
7  WORKING HOLIDAY Jun10 May15 Apr25 Apr10 Mar12 (trevino g)PEREZ A 115 5.00    
 
TDN-8   07/23/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33.9K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FLAME FOR REAL Jul02 May28 Oct11 Sep25   (zielinski richa)BOWEN ROCCO 119 3.00 22% 3.50    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of SCARLETTS FOR REAL by PROUD CITIZEN)
2  ROLLIN FREEDOM Jul02         (zielinski ric)CEDILLO MAURO 119 12.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of FLIGHT ELEVEN by MIDAS EYES)
3  MANDAVILLA Jul02         (tumblin andrew)VIGIL NOEL 123 6.00    
  (by ALTERNATION out of MANDABULL by NEWFOUNDLAND)
4  SMARTASSET Jun17 Dec21 Dec11 Nov22 Oct23 (cline c)RIVERA R 123 4.50 9% 10.50    
  (by SMARTY JONES out of SOME GIVEN LEGEND by POINT GIVEN)
5  JUSTWORTHASHOT Feb28         (schuster robi)BARBARAN ERIK 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BOLD WARRIOR out of ESTHERS BALL by PARTY MANNERS)
6  CLOUD PRINCESS Jul02 Jan09 Dec21     (szczepanski emil)AVILES YAN 123 12.00    
  (by CLOUD COMPUTING out of GOLD INK by INVISIBLE INK)
7  J. P INDY Jul02 Dec21 Dec11 Nov22 Oct23 (cline )BATISTA ALBERTO 123 8.00    
  (by CONGRATS out of JANNES PAUL by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
8  VAL'S TWINSTAR Jul01         (shanyfelt vale)GONZALEZ A 119 1.60 49% 1.10    
  (by TWINSPIRED out of FABLED STAR by OFFLEE WILD)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.