Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - June 27, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (7/6/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/6/1/5)-(7/6/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/6/1/5)-(7/6/1/5)-(7/6/1/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/6/1/5)-(6/2/1/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/6/1/5)-(6/2/1/3)-(9/1/12/11) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-2   WIN (6/2/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/1/3)-(6/2/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/1/3)-(6/2/1/3)-(6/2/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/2/1/3)-(9/1/12/11) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/2/1/3)-(9/1/12/11)-(3/6/7/4) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-3   WIN (9/1/12/11) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/1/12/11)-(9/1/12/11) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/1/12/11)-(9/1/12/11)-(9/1/12/11) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/1/12/11)-(3/6/7/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (9/1/12/11)-(3/6/7/4)-(4/9/3/6) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-4   WIN (3/6/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/7/4)-(3/6/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/6/7/4)-(3/6/7/4)-(3/6/7/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/6/7/4)-(4/9/3/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/6/7/4)-(4/9/3/6)-(6/7/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-5   WIN (4/9/3/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/9/3/6)-(4/9/3/6/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/9/3/6)-(4/9/3/6/2)-(4/9/3/6/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (4/9/3/6)-(6/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/9/3/6)-(6/7/3)-(2/8/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-6   WIN (6/7/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/7/3)-(6/7/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/7/3)-(6/7/3)-(6/7/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/7/3)-(2/8/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/7/3)-(2/8/4)-(2/6/7/4/12) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-7   WIN (2/8/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/8/4)-(2/8/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/8/4)-(2/8/4)-(2/8/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/8/4)-(2/6/7/4/12) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-8   WIN (2/6/7/4/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/6/7/4/12)-(2/6/7/4/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/6/7/4/12)-(2/6/7/4/12)-(2/6/7/4/12) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   06/27/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOUNTEOUS (IRE) May17 Apr12 Mar03 Jan28 Nov11 (atras ro)SANTANA JR 118 5.00 14% 6.10    
2  SEVEN TAYLORS May17 Apr30       (moger jr)BEJARANO R 118 3.50    
SCR  WYOMING CLASS         (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00    
4  PUBLICITY May30         (atras rob)TORRES A 118 8.00    
5  PRINCE OF POWER Jun13 Apr06 Mar23 May03 Apr20 (vosler s)RIQUELME J 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
6  ROCKET NIGHT Apr13 Mar21 Feb11 Dec16 Oct26 (van thomas)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 17% 4.80    
7  BRICKLAYER Jun07 Apr30 Apr18 Feb17 Dec21 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 2.50 39% 1.60    
8  TAPITORO Nov18 Oct28 Aug31     (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
 
CD-2   06/27/2024 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($66K) 4UP M/F PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WUPKAR Jun08 May20 Apr19 Mar03 Feb03 (short tho)BEALMEAR C 113 6.00 7% 12.40    
2  DE' ANS EIGHTY May11 Apr17 Mar24 Feb04 Jan13 (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 12% 7.60    
3  CAUMSETT Dec30 Nov11 Nov01 Oct17 Sep21 (paye jose)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 20.00 5% 17.40    
4  COEXIST May23 Mar03 Feb03 Dec31 Dec03 (moquett ronald)ORTIZ L 120 2.50    
5  BIRDIE ROSE Jun15 May22 Mar23 Feb28 Jan03 (salas felipe)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
6  THERESASILVERLININ Apr27 Mar01 Feb02 Jan12 Nov23 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 1.60 50% 1.00    
7  PUNCHY GIRL May23 May03 Apr13 Mar21 Feb11 (morse l)BEJARANO R 118 6.00    
 
CD-3   06/27/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TAP INTO THIS         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 9% 10.50    
  (by TAPIT out of SUPERIORITYCOMPLEX by HARD SPUN)
SCR  RESTORE (FR)         (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of MOLLY CORBIN by WAR FRONT)
3  ALTOBELLI         (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of TRUE ELEGANCE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  STRUMMIN May26 May02 Apr17 Apr05   (hancock john )LEBRON VICTOR 119 4.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of QUEEN OF THE PARTY by KANTHAROS)
SCR  EXUBERANT MISCHIEF         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of EXUBERANCE by ARCHARCHARCH)
6  NORMANDY COAST         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of ALLITERATION by CONGRATS)
SCR  BRIGHT SKITTLE May11 Apr25       (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of HARBOR LIGHTS by SHACKLEFORD)
SCR  BUY THE RIGHTS         (lovell miche)TORRES A 119 15.00    
  (by JAY GATSBY out of LETSSTAYPOSITIVE by PALACE MALICE)
9  VOODOO DADDY         (lynch bri)TORRES A 119 3.50 43% 1.30    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of SCOLDING by CARPE DIEM (FR))
10  HIGH LIMIT         (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of ULTRALIGHT BEAM by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
11  KEEP IT EASY Jun06         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of BOXWOOD by ENGLISH CHANNEL)
12  SANDMAN         (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 6.00 9% 10.50    
  (by TAPIT out of DISTORTED MUSIC by DISTORTED HUMOR)
 
CD-4   06/27/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RED HOT JEANIE May11 Mar27 Jul07 May29 May04 (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 123 4.50    
2  SMART WITH HEART Jun08 May12 Apr25 Jan19 Dec31 (bahena i)RODRIGUEZ A 118 8.00    
3  GLORIETTE Jun02 Apr13 Jan31 Dec20 Aug05 (scherer marian)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.00 44% 1.30    
4  ROYAL BLOOD Nov19 Nov01 Oct12 Jul31 Jul09 (habeeb donal)TORRES A 123 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  THE BIG CALHOUNA Jun08 May16 Apr21 Apr07 Mar17 (santamar)SANTANA JR 118 4.00    
6  PRINCESS IS OLIVIA Jun02 Apr20 Mar14 Jan12 Dec09 (ewing michael )CASTANON L 118 3.50 24% 3.20    
7  WHAT'S CRACKIN Feb10 Dec27 May26     (hamilton sarah)ASHTON GAVIN 118 5.00 6% 14.90    
 
CD-5   06/27/2024 3630ft TURF RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EXCELLENT CHANCE         (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of EXCHANTED by EXCHANGE RATE)
2  WENDELSSOHN Nov02         (delima jose )LANDEROS CHRIS 118 8.00 ★    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of GANGBUSTERS by BROKEN VOW)
3  BEER RUN Apr19 Sep02 Jul15 Jun17 Apr26 (ward a)ORTIZ L 124 2.50 13% 6.50    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of SUDDEN HEAT by CONGRATS)
4  TROUBLE'S ROARING Jun05 Apr26 Mar23 Mar01 Jan26 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 34% 1.90    
  (by WORLD OF TROUBLE out of FRANDERELLA by HENNY HUGHES)
5  SURF CITY May26 Apr24 Nov25 Nov04 Oct07 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of EVASIVE STORM by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
6  CAFE RACER Jun05 Mar23 Jan11 Dec15 Oct06 (stall albe)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of LAURA'S PLEASURE by CACTUS RIDGE)
7  HE'S ELUSIVE Jun05 Jan26 Dec08     (jackson chr)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 20.00    
  (by ELUSIVE HOUR out of HEART OF CHARLEI by STEPHEN GOT EVEN)
8  GLACIAL POWER Jun05 May12 Mar06 Jul08   (camejo jos)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
  (by ASTERN out of KODIAC GAL by KODIAC)
9  SEND CASH May12         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00 31% 2.20    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of CASH IN by TAPIT)
10  D DAY Jun05         (atras rob)TORRES A 118 15.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
11  NYTTIME STORY         (michael b)BEALMEAR C 111 20.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of TIGRESS TALE by TALE OF THE CAT)
12  LUCKYASIWONSWAS         (warpool shane)MILLER CHASE 124 30.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of LADY SUPREME by FOUR SEASONS (GB))
SCR  SIDE EYE May03 Mar02 Feb17 Apr23 Mar19 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 124 5.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of QUANAH COUNTY by VALID EXPECTATIONS)
SCR  MISCHIEVOUS M Jun01 May04 Mar23     (vance d)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of FOREVER LOYAL by COLOR BEARER)
SCR  FIREFIGHT         (kenneally )GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 12.00    
  (by WAR FRONT out of CACHE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  PROSPERO (IRE) Sep22         (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 118 12.00    
  (by NO NAY NEVER out of POSSET by OASIS DREAM (GB))
 
CD-6   06/27/2024 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($66K) 4UP ALL PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEYOND BEST May31 May10 Apr20 Mar01 Jan09 (garcia ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 8.00    
2  PRINCIP Jun02 Apr20 Mar03 Jan26 Jan07 (foley greg)ORTIZ L 118 4.50    
3  TIMELESS BOUNTY Jun02 May10 Feb17 Mar05 Feb19 (ocasio osvaldo)MACHADO LUAN 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  LUNAR MODULE Jun02 May10 Apr14 Feb01 Jan04 (camejo m)BEJARANO R 118 8.00    
5  PURE PANIC Jun02 May10 Apr14 Feb28 Feb10 (foster eri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00    
6  GLOBAL SENSATION May25 May10 Mar22 Feb28 Jan12 (cano mu)TORRES A 120 2.50 40% 1.50    
7  MAC DADDY TOO May10 Apr14 Mar24 Mar02 Feb03 (casse no)SANTANA JR 120 4.00 29% 2.50    
 
CD-7   06/27/2024 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOURBON RESOLVE Feb18 Jan19 Nov26 Apr14 Jan28 (wilkes ian)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 6.00    
2  MO FIGHT Sep21 Aug26 Jul02     (casse no)SANTANA JR 124 2.50 33% 2.10    
SCR  FROSTY INDULGENCE May26 May04 Apr05 Mar01   (davis christop)ORTIZ L 118 15.00    
4  GAME WARDEN May12 Apr19 Feb18 Jan19 Dec07 (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 126 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BAYTOWN BRUISER May31 May09 Feb02 Jan06 Nov30 (wismer s)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00    
SCR  KITTY HAWK (GB) May10 Apr10 Nov12 Oct07 Aug27 (oliver vic)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
7  SHOPPER'S REVENGE May27 May02 Mar30 May06 Mar25 (asmussen )TORRES A 124 3.50    
8  SUN THUNDER Jun09 Mar14 Feb24 Jan28 Jan06 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.00 24% 3.20    
SCR  CURLIN'S GESTURE May11 Jul02       (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 10.00    
10  GLEN AIRY May27 Apr19 Feb08 Jan15 Nov10 (mcgee paul)LANDEROS CHRIS 124 10.00    
 
CD-8   06/27/2024 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAYLEN May30 May02 Apr11 Mar08 Feb16 (leonard i)BEJARANO R 118 8.00    
2  GHEE FOR THE WIN Jun08 May24 Apr21 Mar09 Feb14 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00 42% 1.40    
3  WHERE IS SHE (GB) Jun07 May16       (sweezey kent)MACHADO LUAN 118 8.00    
4  TEAMANYMARTUNIES         (puhich mike)MOJICA JR 118 12.00 9% 9.90    
5  BELLA ESTRELA Feb06         (wadsworth k)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00    
6  DAME MAUDE CHARDIN         (habeeb donald )ASHTON GAVIN 118 12.00 13% 6.70    
7  NOTHING BUT TIME Jun02         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 4.00 13% 6.70    
SCR  LOW KEY FLEX May17         (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00    
9  TAPWRIT WARRIOR May30 May02 Mar15 Jan13 Dec30 (vasquez g)BEALMEAR C 111 30.00    
10  IUKA MISS May26 May02 Nov16 Oct25 Sep14 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 4.50    
11  TALAVERA Jun12 Jul07 Jun02     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
12  ELLIOTT MOON May30 May10 Mar30 Feb22 Oct04 (kerrick lacy)CASTANON L 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.