Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - June 21, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (1/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/6)-(1/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/4/6)-(1/4/6)-(1/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/4/6)-(1/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/4/6)-(1/7)-(1/8/9/5) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-2   WIN (1/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/7)-(1/7/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (1/7)-(1/7/5)-(1/7/5) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (1/7)-(1/8/9/5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (1/7)-(1/8/9/5)-(1/6/2/8) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-3   WIN (1/8/9/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/8/9/5)-(1/8/9/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/8/9/5)-(1/8/9/5)-(1/8/9/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/8/9/5)-(1/6/2/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/8/9/5)-(1/6/2/8)-(9/1/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (1/6/2/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/2/8)-(1/6/2/3/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/6/2/8)-(1/6/2/3/8)-(1/6/2/3/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/6/2/8)-(9/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/6/2/8)-(9/1/7)-(5/7/1/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-5   WIN (9/1/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/1/7)-(9/1/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (9/1/7)-(9/1/7)-(9/1/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (9/1/7)-(5/7/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (9/1/7)-(5/7/1/4)-(6/4/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-6   WIN (5/7/1/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/7/1/4)-(5/7/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/7/1/4)-(5/7/1/4)-(5/7/1/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/7/1/4)-(6/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/7/1/4)-(6/4/3)-(9/1/5/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-7   WIN (6/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/3)-(6/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/3)-(6/4/3)-(6/4/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/3)-(9/1/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/4/3)-(9/1/5/7)-(10/9/7/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-8   WIN (9/1/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/1/5/7)-(9/1/5/7/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (9/1/5/7)-(9/1/5/7/2)-(9/1/5/7/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (9/1/5/7)-(10/9/7/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-9   WIN (10/9/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/9/7/3)-(10/9/7/1/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/9/7/3)-(10/9/7/1/3)-(10/9/7/1/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   06/21/2024 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($52K) 4UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SAMARITA Jun01 May04 Apr10 Dec02 Oct13 (rodriguez jo)GILES EMMANUEL 120 3.00 49% 1.00    
2  FOREVER HOME Jun06 May17 Apr30 Apr10 Mar02 (garcia ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 2.50    
3  STORM CHARGING May25 May10 Apr27 Apr10 Mar28 (hester ha)BEALMEAR C 113 20.00    
4  MAZOKU May25 Apr30 Apr10 Mar15 Feb14 (butcher jame)BARBOSA CARLOS 115 1.80 23% 3.40    
5  PROTOMAGIC May25 May11 Apr10 Mar27 Feb28 (cano mu)TORRES A 118 4.00    
6  PENS STREET Apr27 Mar17 Jan28 Dec02 Oct21 (asmussen )TORRES A 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-2   06/21/2024 3300ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($63K) 2 ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FAST BEACH         (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 3.50 30% 2.30    
2  OUTOFPI         (gonzalez e)RIQUELME J 119 6.00    
SCR  GALLO DE FUEGO         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 8.00    
4  SELL IT         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00    
5  GALPIN SUNDAY         (west aaro)BERMUDEZ E 119 4.50 ★    
6  SOUND CAUSE         (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 6.00    
7  COMPLEX MUSIC May01         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 2.50 23% 3.40    
 
CD-3   06/21/2024 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($52K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LIKE A SALTSHAKER Jun05 May10 Mar15 Jan11 Dec02 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 118 3.00 39% 1.50    
2  COMMUNICATION MEMO May04 Apr12 Mar21 Feb16 Jan27 (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 4.00    
SCR  JAHEZ May23 May15 Apr26 Mar27 Mar02 (fernandez)BEALMEAR C 111 30.00    
SCR  SPEITFUL SAM Jun05 Mar21 Mar09 Feb16 Jan06 (londono genevieve)GRAHAM J 118 20.00    
5  HOLDING PATTERN May29 May04 Apr19 Mar17 Feb19 (swearinge)TORRES A 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  ONE COOL DUDE May19 Mar06 Feb15 Nov05 Oct11 (blair jord)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 4.50    
7  STARTDFROMDABOTTOM Jun07 Feb28 Feb03 Dec30 Dec02 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00    
8  ETERNALLY GRATEFUL Jun05 Apr13 Mar07 Feb16 Jan05 (becker scott)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 22% 3.60    
9  SPYCRAFT May19 Apr27 Apr12 Mar15 Feb16 (cook b)CANNON DECLAN 118 8.00 10% 9.40    
 
CD-4   06/21/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  YOU'LL BE BACK         (amoss m)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 29% 2.50    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of ADVANCE PARTY by EMPIRE MAKER)
2  TWO TURNTABLES         (maker mi)SANTANA JR 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of BETWIXT by EMPIRE MAKER)
3  BONNE FILLE         (lovell michell)ASHTON GAVIN 119 15.00 ★    
  (by CUPID out of RUN LIKE THE BOSS by SCAT DADDY)
4  HEREFORAGOODTIME         (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of FIRST HOUR by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
5  MOON LAW         (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of NOON MOON by MALIBU MOON)
6  ECLATANT         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 28% 2.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of DOWNSIDE SCENARIO by SCAT DADDY)
7  LA CARA May17         (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 6.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of CARA CATERINA by BERNARDINI)
8  PANACHE         (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of MOJO MAMA by TAPITURE)
9  SUPER MAXIMA May31 May14       (seglin e)RIQUELME J 119 15.00    
  (by MAXIMUM SECURITY out of GONE TO BALI by GONE ASTRAY)
SCR  STUDIO HALL         (lobo paul)TORRES A 119 10.00    
  (by INSTILLED REGARD out of BEYOND AMBITION by TAPIT)
SCR  JUSTINQUESO         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 20.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of FIESTA by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
12  LADY KATHRYN         (mott riley)ACHARD ALEX 119 10.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of PINK SCATILLAC by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  AND ONE MORE TIME         (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 5.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of COMPLICATED by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
 
CD-5   06/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FORCED ERRORS         (zito nichola)BARBOSA CARLOS 113 12.00 14% 6.40    
2  SESAME STREEK May27 Apr21       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50    
3  STRASSE Jun07 May18 Apr20 Mar07 Feb16 (newton troy)BEJARANO R 118 4.00    
SCR  TAKE THE GOLD         (fernandez)BEALMEAR C 111 12.00    
5  SOCO AND LIME         (williamson)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00    
SCR  BEARINGS Mar02 Jan26 Nov16 Nov05 Sep23 (atras ro)SANTANA JR 124 4.00    
7  PLUNDER May04         (wojczyns)RODRIGUEZ A 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  REMEMBER THE FEAR May30 Aug27 Aug06     (haran joh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00    
9  MO HOPE Jun05 Apr30 Sep02 Jun02 Apr28 (mcgee paul)LANERIE J 124 3.00 35% 1.80    
 
CD-6   06/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3 F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUST AN OPINION Mar21 Mar07 Feb16 Nov15 Apr26 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 11% 8.00    
2  BALLADRY May31 May01 Nov25 Oct30 Oct09 (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
3  MILA JUNES May30 May09 Mar15 Jan27 Dec29 (van tho)BARBOSA CARLOS 113 5.00    
4  IDALOU Jun02 Feb25 Dec31 Oct25 Sep27 (schultz lind)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  CONTROLLED TEMPER May24 Apr11 Mar21 Feb16 Feb02 (sharp joe)TORRES A 118 2.50 34% 1.90    
6  MRS. RIP May31 Apr17 Jul01     (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 10.00    
7  MISS JEOPARDY Jun02 Jan19 Dec31 Dec09 Nov19 (radosevich)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 32% 2.10    
SCR  CHANGE THE PLAY Jun01 Apr27 Mar09     (hamm timothy)SAEZ LUIS 120 10.00    
 
CD-7   06/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOCUS (GB) May10 Apr07 Nov10 Oct20 Aug11 (thompson mich)CANNON DECLAN 123 15.00    
2  DEVILSGOTACAUSE May04 Mar23 Feb17 Jan27   (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
3  MIDNIGHT DAJOEY May29         (wismer s)MACHADO LUAN 125 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  PENSACOLA Nov11 Oct15 Sep17 Aug20 Jul30 (cowans william )ACHARD ALEX 123 6.00 26% 2.80    
5  CATS BY FIVE May18 Apr27 Mar01 Feb13 Jan18 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.00    
6  GOLD LUCK Jun07 May12 Apr07 Mar22 Feb23 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 125 3.00 46% 1.20    
SCR  LAKOTA TERRITORY Feb03         (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 123 4.50    
SCR  AUGUSTA MELODY May27 Mar10 May29 Feb05 Jan15 (hobby ste)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 4.00    
 
CD-8   06/21/2024 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PENDULUM May01 Mar31 Jan07 Dec10 Oct11 (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 120 2.50 32% 2.10    
2  BOSS LADY BAILEY May11 Apr14 Mar03 Jan27 Jun02 (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 6.00 ★    
3  SMOOTH WAVES Oct25 Oct06 Sep10 Aug06 Jul07 (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
4  WINGS LIKE EAGLES May30 Nov23 Nov04 Jun11 May07 (mott riley)ACHARD ALEX 124 10.00    
5  GRECIAN GODDESS May10 Apr06 Jan20     (brown c)ORTIZ L 118 3.00 9% 9.50    
6  CALL ME TONI May23 Apr24 Mar13 Feb14 Jan25 (hughes g)GRAHAM J 124 20.00    
7  STYLISH SUE May28 May04 Mar14 Feb17   (sharp joe)TORRES A 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  EMPIRES PRINCESS Jun02 May16 Apr20 Mar03 Jan25 (bogle fergus)CANNON DECLAN 124 30.00    
9  PHAROAH'S WINE Mar30 Feb03 Nov26 Oct06 Sep02 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 4.50 34% 2.00    
SCR  GET TWISTED Oct22 Sep15       (navarrete )LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 15.00    
 
CD-9   06/21/2024 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KINETIC         (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 4.50 ★    
  (by STREET SENSE out of COLLECTIVE by CHARISMATIC)
2  MAGNIFICENT RAGS         (mcpeek ke)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of MAGNIFICENT SONG by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
3  HE'S A JOKER May27         (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of SHE'S PRETTY LUCKY by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
4  NUEVO EMPIRE Nov12 Oct14 Sep22     (medina robert)ORTIZ L 118 6.00    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of CLEVERLY by TAPIT)
5  COMMUTED         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of FINAL HOLIDAY by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
6  COWBOY CODE Oct01 Jul21 Jun15     (lukas wayn)TORRES A 118 15.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of NOT IN JEST by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
7  HAPPY GREY Mar08 Feb03       (asmussen )TORRES A 118 10.00 17% 4.80    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of CALLISTA by TAPIT)
SCR  BRUNACINI         (sims p)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
  (by DORTMUND out of OUR CONQUISTADORA by WILBURN)
9  MOST WANTED         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.50 20% 4.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of BEACH WALK by DISTORTED HUMOR)
10  MOBSTER May27 Jan21 Dec26 Nov26 Oct07 (casse mark)MACHADO LUAN 124 4.00 38% 1.70    
  (by UNCLE MO out of MEADOW BREEZE by MEADOWLAKE)
11  HARD SCHOLAR         (antonucci)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of EDUCATING by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
12  DR. STORM         (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of WAR RELIC by PULPIT)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.