Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - May 23, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (3/6/5/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/5/2)-(3/6/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/6/5/2)-(3/6/5/2)-(3/6/5/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/6/5/2)-(3/4/5/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/6/5/2)-(3/4/5/1)-(2/3/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-2   WIN (3/4/5/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/4/5/1)-(3/4/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/4/5/1)-(3/4/5/1)-(3/4/5/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/4/5/1)-(2/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/4/5/1)-(2/3/1)-(6/3/1/5/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-3   WIN (2/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/1)-(2/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/3/1)-(2/3/1)-(2/3/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/3/1)-(6/3/1/5/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (2/3/1)-(6/3/1/5/4)-(7/4/1) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-4   WIN (6/3/1/5/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/3/1/5/4)-(6/3/1/5/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/3/1/5/4)-(6/3/1/5/4)-(6/3/1/5/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/3/1/5/4)-(7/4/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/3/1/5/4)-(7/4/1)-(6/4/1/8) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-5   WIN (7/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/1)-(7/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/4/1)-(7/4/1)-(7/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/4/1)-(6/4/1/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/4/1)-(6/4/1/8)-(3/4/7/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-6   WIN (6/4/1/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/1/8)-(6/4/1/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/4/1/8)-(6/4/1/8)-(6/4/1/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/4/1/8)-(3/4/7/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/4/1/8)-(3/4/7/5)-(2/3/6/5/10) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-7   WIN (3/4/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/4/7/5)-(3/4/7/8/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/4/7/5)-(3/4/7/8/5)-(3/4/7/8/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/4/7/5)-(2/3/6/5/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-8   WIN (2/3/6/5/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/3/6/5/10)-(2/3/6/5/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/3/6/5/10)-(2/3/6/5/10)-(2/3/6/5/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/23/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MALAWNIA Apr26 Mar13 Jul13 May12 Jan12 (tomlinson )LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 3.50    
2  HAYUNEVANO Apr25 Apr05 Mar03 May05 Apr07 (husak gary)HERNANDEZ J 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  MITOLE'S LEGACY May01 Mar28 Jul21 Jul02   (bush george)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 4.00 39% 1.60    
4  SHE'S A SAINT Apr14 Feb22 Dec30 Nov29 Oct11 (reed r)OLIVEROS CHARLE 118 8.00    
5  WINDY WALK May09 Apr14 Feb08 Jan03 Nov16 (davis christop)ORTIZ L 118 2.50 19% 4.40    
6  MALU Mar29 Feb16 Jan13 Dec15 Nov17 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.00 19% 4.20    
7  LADAN Apr07 Mar27 Mar01 Jan11 Dec22 (bogle fergus)CANNON DECLAN 124 8.00    
 
CD-2   05/23/2024 5940ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STRICKLAND Apr14 Mar24 Mar07 Feb11 Jan12 (brennan t)BEALMEAR C 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  CURLINS INCHARGE May01 Apr10 Mar02 Feb17 Jan26 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 125 2.00    
3  AMERICAN RAIDER Apr27 Mar21 Feb17 Jan25 Dec16 (santamaria car)ASHTON GAVIN 125 3.00 36% 1.80    
4  BLOOD BROTHER May09 Feb22       (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 2.50 20% 4.00    
5  VACCINATOR         (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 118 8.00 15% 5.70    
6  SKY KEY Mar29 Mar08 Feb09 Jan18   (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 15.00    
7  COAL BOSS Apr27 Mar13 Feb17 Jan12 Dec29 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 5.00    
 
CD-3   05/23/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 4UP M/F PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KLIMT'S MUSE May01 Aug05 Jul07 Jun16 May20 (humphries tho)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 8% 11.50    
2  ALTERED SHOT Dec07 Nov16 Sep30 Aug06 Jun22 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 36% 1.80    
3  COEXIST Mar03 Feb03 Dec31 Dec03 Nov11 (forster grant )ORTIZ L 118 3.50 16% 5.10    
4  CENTER STAGE Apr27 Feb24 Dec20 Nov05 Oct10 (esquivel jesus)MACHADO LUAN 120 3.00    
SCR  YES DAY Apr24 Feb24 Jan25 Dec14 Nov29 (wismer s)CEDILLO ABEL 118 6.00    
6  PUNCHY GIRL May03 Apr13 Mar21 Feb11 Jan12 (morse l)BEJARANO R 118 5.00    
 
CD-4   05/23/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 4UP ALL PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COOL MEMORY Apr20 Mar22 Mar02 Feb11 Jan12 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 12% 7.40    
2  DREAMING OF SMARTY Apr27 Mar27 Mar06 Feb01 Jan13 (burton roger)BARBOSA CARLOS 113 20.00    
3  COOL QUARTET May01 Jan05 Dec01 Nov12 Oct21 (d'angelo jose )ORTIZ L 118 3.00 15% 5.80    
4  RACKATAPTAP Apr05 Mar07 Jan26 Dec29 Dec08 (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  ROYAL ACT May05 Apr21 Mar22 Mar08 Feb17 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 4.50 7% 12.60    
6  SHORTLIST Apr27 Apr17 Mar22 Mar07 Feb22 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 118 4.00 39% 1.60    
7  KHOZY MY BOY Apr06 Feb25 Feb17 Dec15 Oct14 (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
8  JOB SECURITY Mar16 Feb21 Jan12 Dec22 Dec13 (stinson willi)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
9  KEEN ON YOU Apr27 Mar28 Feb28 Oct24 Oct05 (miller jer)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 30.00    
10  FERRYBOAT May01 Mar13 Feb07 Dec14 Dec01 (miller jero)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 10.00    
 
CD-5   05/23/2024 7260ft DIRT RC10 WET FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MARIA'S REVENGE Apr24 Mar09 Feb10 Dec31 Oct20 (sancal mura)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  JANEY CREED Apr25 Mar21 Feb22 Jan24 Dec13 (hughes g)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50    
3  CALL ME TONI Apr24 Mar13 Feb14 Jan25 Nov30 (hughes g)GRAHAM J 124 12.00    
4  VIVA LA RED Apr24 Mar30 Mar02 Jan27 Dec26 (biancone p)ASMUSSEN J 124 1.80 17% 5.00    
SCR  MRS. ASTOR Apr26 Apr06 Sep03 Jul22 Jun03 (thomas jonatha)ORTIZ L 124 1.40    
6  ROBIN SAGE Apr27 Oct27 Oct01 Sep07 Aug13 (medina robert)MACHADO LUAN 124 5.00    
7  NEON ICON Apr17         (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.00 58% 0.70    
 
CD-6   05/23/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPARKLE OF HOPE Dec13 Nov08 Sep30 Aug27 Jun11 (foley greg)ORTIZ L 123 3.50 6% 15.00    
2  JE SUIS RAPIDE May11 Jun23 May13 May02 Apr19 (king l)MOJICA JR 123 6.00    
SCR  PIONEER PARADE Apr27 Apr06 Mar24 Mar09 Feb16 (shorter a)TORRES A 123 6.00    
4  GORMLEY'S GABRIELA Feb18 Jan28 Dec30 Dec03 Nov12 (cash norm)BEALMEAR C 116 5.00 18% 4.40    
5  LITTLE SISTER SUE Apr17 Mar24 Feb18 Dec30 Dec08 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 123 8.00    
6  WILLOW BEND Jan11 Nov22 Oct14 Jul22 May17 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 2.50 48% 1.10    
7  CRACKALACKING Apr17 Jun11 May13 Mar25 Mar02 (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 8.00    
8  FRANGO ELECTRICO May11 Apr07 Mar20 Feb08 Jan25 (bahe)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-7   05/23/2024 5940ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOLDEN PLATE May05 Apr20 Mar10 Feb11 Jan01 (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00    
2  WASHINGTON'S UNION Apr12 Nov04 Oct19 Sep28 Aug26 (sims a)BEJARANO R 124 5.00    
3  J T'S IMAGINATION Apr14 Mar01 Feb09 Dec29 Dec01 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 44% 1.30    
4  DR KRINGLE Apr25 Mar23 Jan25 Dec22 Nov22 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 124 5.00 27% 2.80    
5  INTERLOCK EMPIRE May05 Apr13 Mar23 Feb25 Jul09 (shorter )SANTANA JR 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  YORK TAVERN Apr25 Mar13 Feb02 May28 Apr15 (sweezey kent)MACHADO LUAN 124 3.50    
7  PATROLMAN Mar14 Dec16 Nov26 Jun23 Jun04 (esquivel )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  TIZZY INDY May01 Apr07 Mar01 Feb17 Jan20 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 ★    
9  JOINT VENTURE Apr18 Mar07 Jan21 Dec15 Nov01 (damato philip)CEDILLO ABEL 124 8.00    
 
CD-8   05/23/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  I'M THINKING Apr07 Mar09       (dutrow e)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
2  LOVELAND Apr28 Mar24 Nov11 Oct06   (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 32% 2.10    
3  CANDY LOVER Apr18 Mar13 Feb04 Nov25 Nov02 (sharp joe)TORRES A 118 4.50 29% 2.50    
4  ADALENE Mar09 Feb22 Jan31 Dec02 Aug19 (salas felipe)MONCADA IRVING 108 30.00    
5  RUBIA Apr27 Mar02 Feb10 Nov26 Oct28 (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 125 4.00 5% 18.20    
6  BEELIEVE HER Mar14 Feb17 Jan20 Dec16 Nov25 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 6.00 10% 8.70    
7  END OF INNOCENCE Sep21 Aug02 Jun16     (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
8  HEDGE THESE BETS May03 Apr18       (seglin e)RIQUELME J 125 30.00    
9  BOLT ON THE ROCKS Mar30 Mar01       (delima e)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
10  STAGFLATION Apr18 Mar14 Feb15 Nov24 Oct22 (baker james)GRAHAM J 125 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.