Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Sunday - August 20, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (3/6/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/7/8)-(3/6/7/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/6/7/8)-(3/6/7/8)-(3/6/7/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/6/7/8)-(3/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/6/7/8)-(3/5/2)-(8/6/4/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-2   WIN (3/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/2)-(3/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/2)-(3/5/2)-(3/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/5/2)-(8/6/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/5/2)-(8/6/4/5)-(5/2/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-3   WIN (8/6/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/6/4/5)-(8/6/4/9/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (8/6/4/5)-(8/6/4/9/5)-(8/6/4/9/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (8/6/4/5)-(5/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/6/4/5)-(5/2/7)-(4/1/6/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-4   WIN (5/2/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/7)-(5/2/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/7)-(5/2/7)-(5/2/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/7)-(4/1/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/2/7)-(4/1/6/2)-(3/6/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-5   WIN (4/1/6/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/1/6/2)-(4/1/6/8/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/1/6/2)-(4/1/6/8/2)-(4/1/6/8/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (4/1/6/2)-(3/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/1/6/2)-(3/6/5)-(1/5/8/2) 48 $1.00 $144 
ELP-6   WIN (3/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/5)-(3/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/6/5)-(3/6/5)-(3/6/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/6/5)-(1/5/8/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/6/5)-(1/5/8/2)-(6/3/2/8) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-7   WIN (1/5/8/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/5/8/2)-(1/5/8/6/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/5/8/2)-(1/5/8/6/2)-(1/5/8/6/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/5/8/2)-(6/3/2/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/5/8/2)-(6/3/2/8)-(3/10/8/7) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
ELP-8   WIN (6/3/2/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/3/2/8)-(6/3/2/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/3/2/8)-(6/3/2/8)-(6/3/2/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/3/2/8)-(3/10/8/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
ELP-9   WIN (3/10/8/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/10/8/7)-(3/10/8/1/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/10/8/7)-(3/10/8/1/7)-(3/10/8/1/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/20/2023 3630ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 2 F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ESPERE Jul01         (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 120 5.00    
2  SWEETCATHERINEROSE         (sharp joe)TORRES A 120 6.00    
3  SCOOT ALONG         (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 4.00 44% 1.30    
4  SUCRE CECILE Aug04         (davis christo)CANNON DECLAN 120 8.00    
5  NEXT DOT Jul09 Apr28 Apr12     (hancock a)MACHADO LUAN 120 20.00    
6  SWEET GUITAR         (mckeever andr)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 5.00 10% 9.40    
7  HONKEY TONK TIME         (west w)MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00 9% 10.40    
8  BLAME GAME         (mcentee paul)GILLIGAN JACK 120 12.00 9% 10.40    
9  WRECK IT RUBY Aug01 May27 May12     (holsapple hutch)HEARD TYLER 120 2.50    
 
ELP-2   08/20/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($22K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EL FRANCO Apr01 Mar10 Feb18 Jan20 Dec30 (norris mike)MACHADO LUAN 122 15.00    
2  ORIENT MAGIC Jul21 Jun27 Jun09     (french r)ORTIZ ALVIN 122 5.00 17% 5.00    
3  SANTA CRUISER Jul22 Jul08 Jun17 May14 Mar05 (cano juan)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.50 32% 2.10    
SCR  MAD ADAM Jul08 Jun10 Mar22 Mar10 Jan12 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 3.50    
5  MR. PETERKIN May27 Apr23 Apr01 Feb04 Jul07 (norris mike)CANNON DECLAN 122 8.00 19% 4.30    
SCR  BOLDISH Jul22 Apr15 Feb04 Nov16 Nov02 (moquett e)NAVAS YOEL 115 3.00    
7  JOB SECURITY Aug06 Jun24 May26 Apr23 Feb11 (cano muno)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 6.00    
 
ELP-3   08/20/2023 5940ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SILVER RALEIGH Jul21         (beckman whitwort)GRAHAM J 118 20.00    
2  HONOR GOLD Aug01 Jul02       (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 118 5.00    
3  STROKE OF MIDNIGHT Feb01 Oct06 Aug21     (begley greg)MACHADO LUAN 124 20.00    
4  MY UNCLE FRANK Jul09 Jun17       (danner kelsey)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.00 9% 9.60    
5  FLINT EAST WOULD Jul22         (kerric)CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 108 30.00 5% 19.00    
6  BROWN LIQUOR MAN Jul31 Jun30       (shirer mat)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00 12% 7.10    
7  COAL BOSS Jul21 Mar09 Feb12 Jan21 Dec23 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 8.00    
8  SIMPLY JACK Jul31 Jun07 May15 Oct05 Jul11 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 124 4.00 53% 0.90    
9  MY BROTHER KEITH Dec21         (diodoro r)TORRES A 124 3.50 ★    
 
ELP-4   08/20/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  STORM STRATEGY Jul07 Jun16 May29 May05 Apr22 (pittman )RODRIGUEZ A 119 12.00    
2  TIME TO MEDDLE Jul23 Jun16 May18 Mar26 Jun04 (forster t)LANERIE J 124 4.50 23% 3.30    
3  SAVAGE KISS Aug02 Jun15 May06 Mar24   (heitzman e)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00    
SCR  BOOSTER SHOT Jul07 Jun16 May30 Apr29 Mar09 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00    
5  SHORTLY Jul09 Mar04 Feb04 Jan28 Dec02 (becker scott)EMIGH A 118 1.80 32% 2.10    
6  THE BIG MOZZ Jul21 Jun01 Jan04 Nov19   (trujillo elvis)STEVENS C 119 5.00    
7  MY FAVORITE UNCLE Jul21 Jul09 May29 Apr29 Mar11 (galindo-torre)CANNON DECLAN 124 6.00 16% 5.40    
 
ELP-5   08/20/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BLITZ         (casse mar)TORRES A 119 5.00 17% 4.80    
  (by UNCLE MO out of CUSTOMER BASE by LEMON DROP KID)
2  YAMMY YAMMY BELLA Aug05 Jul06       (bahena ismael)NAVAS YOEL 112 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KARAKONTIE out of GREAT MORNING by GALILEO)
3  STAR PERFORMANCE Jul16         (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of DREAM PROSPECT by MINESHAFT)
4  MYA'S HALO Jul16         (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 119 2.00 52% 0.90    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of LIMONAIA by LEMON DROP KID)
5  WALK STREET         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 10.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of PASTIME by LONHRO (AUS))
6  HIGH FASHION KATE Aug04         (minnock wayne )MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00 7% 12.80    
  (by DEMARCHELIER out of IN THE ROUGH by STORMY ATLANTIC)
7  MOVIN' ON UP         (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00    
  (by ACCELERATE out of STIFLE YOURSELF by CAIRO PRINCE)
8  KRICKLE Jul30 Jul09 May26 May11 Apr19 (holsapple hutch)HEARD TYLER 119 10.00 ★    
  (by CARPE DIEM out of FRISCO GIRL by QUALITY ROAD)
9  REDHEADEDSTRANGER May12         (nesbitt a)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 119 30.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of TOTAL ECLIPSE by LIL E. TEE)
10  WHATTA WORLD Jul01 Jun15 Apr26     (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
  (by WORLD OF TROUBLE out of LOTTA ATTITUDE by RAMBO (IRE))
11  GEORGIA ON E'SMIND         (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 10.00    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of ZIPPIT E by MY GOLDEN SONG)
12  LINDSEY (GB)         (wilkes ian)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00    
  (by MCCRAKEN out of LINDA by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  VEECATION Jul30         (hancock a)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of SURF RIDE by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  MISS PEARL HART Aug04         (hartman chri)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 20.00    
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of REUNION by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  INNOCENT NYGHT         (michael brian)COURT K 119 20.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of INNOCENT LOVE by GRAND SLAM)
SCR  WONDER WAVE (IRE) Jul16         (lynch a)BEJARANO R 119 2.50    
  (by U S NAVY FLAG out of AWOHAAM by IFFRAAJ (GB))
 
ELP-6   08/20/2023 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SPEND BENJAMINS Jul09 Jun10 May06 Apr22 Mar26 (shorter aaron)BEJARANO R 122 8.00    
2  LUPO'S LEGACY Jul31 Jul07 Jun10 Jun01 May13 (hamilton sarah)EMIGH A 122 12.00    
3  B SUDD Jan07 Dec10 Nov17 Apr23 Mar25 (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 2.00 35% 1.90    
4  ELI'S PROMISE Jul31 Jun25 May28 Apr20 Feb24 (divito jam)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 5.00    
5  PENSACOLA Jul30 Aug28       (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 120 2.50 21% 3.80    
6  ELITE FORCES Jun25         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.00 23% 3.40    
 
ELP-7   08/20/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROWDY RIOT         (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.00 29% 2.40    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of AUGUSTA QUEEN by FORESTRY)
2  CEEPEEGEE         (moquett ronal)CANNON DECLAN 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ARMY MULE out of DANCE FOR DADDY by SCAT DADDY)
3  ROCK TO FAME         (divito jam)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 15.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of ROSE TO FAME by GEMOLOGIST)
4  HONKY TONK HIGHWAY         (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of SHARED HUMOR by DISTORTED HUMOR)
5  RUNNIN' ROCKET Jul15         (lynch a)GRAHAM J 119 6.00 26% 2.90    
  (by WAR FRONT out of CORPS DE BALLET by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
6  ALDER Jul15         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.00 ★    
  (by HARD SPUN out of ARBOL by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
7  TAPITBOY         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 10.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of SPECIAL GAL by TAYLOR'S SPECIAL)
8  FLOTATION STATION Jul23         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 5.00 23% 3.40    
  (by EXAGGERATOR out of CHRISTINA'S COMET by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
9  BEKHAMBOY Aug06 Jul15       (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 50.00    
  (by FREE DROP BILLY out of LADY TULA by BIG SURF)
 
ELP-8   08/20/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($80K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VINTAGE PRINT Jul15 May11 Oct23 Sep28 Aug26 (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.50    
2  HOT BLOODED Apr20 Mar10 Feb10 Jan21 Dec15 (david a)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 8.00 7% 12.70    
3  CORELLI Jan28         (thomas jonat)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 2.50 9% 10.50    
4  FENWICK STATION May11 Apr20 Mar24 Apr22 Mar19 (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 122 6.00    
5  ETHICAL JUDGEMENT Jul15 Nov13 Oct20 Sep28 Jul24 (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 122 6.00    
6  TUT'S REVENGE Jul22 Jul01 May06 Apr15 Feb11 (stuart shea)BEJARANO R 122 4.50 55% 0.80    
7  GUNTON ROE Jul09 Jan21 Dec28 Sep14 Aug14 (lobo paul)TORRES A 124 12.00    
8  DECISION MAKER Jun11 May03 Mar26 Mar04 Jan21 (van thomas)GRAHAM J 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BACKGROUND Jul15 Jun04 May05 Apr23 Mar18 (puhich mike)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 3.00    
SCR  PROMISE KEEPER Jul08 Jun11 May06 Aug20 May13 (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 2.00    
 
ELP-9   08/20/2023 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LEVY Jul07 Apr29 Mar09 Sep10 Aug19 (moquett ronal)CANNON DECLAN 123 5.00 ★    
2  RONITHELIMODRIVER Jul31 Jul07 May25 Apr29 Mar10 (hancock dan)MIRANDA ROGELIO 123 30.00    
3  TEN COUNT Jun29 Sep30       (vanden britt)EMIGH A 118 2.00 34% 2.00    
4  BROKEN JUSTICE Jul15 Jun29 May30 May08 Nov16 (short j)MORALES EDGAR 123 15.00    
5  BORN FLAWLESS Jul31 Jun25 May29 May12 Apr12 (heitzman e)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00    
SCR  OUT OF ALCATRAZ Jul07 May25 Apr28 Apr08 Mar23 (shorter a)TORRES A 118 20.00    
7  MAGNA RULER Jul31 Jul11 May25 May12 Mar19 (ramo)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  VALE Jul14 Jun29 May21 Mar18 Feb12 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 123 10.00 13% 6.90    
9  FIXITWITHFORWARD Jul07 May26 Apr08 Jan28 Dec02 (mckeever andr)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 4.00    
10  LEMON DROP SHOT Jun25 May29 May03 Mar31 Mar17 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 123 3.00 30% 2.30    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.