Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Sunday - June 25, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (7/2/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/2/3/5)-(7/2/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/2/3/5)-(7/2/3/5)-(7/2/3/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/2/3/5)-(2/5/7/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/2/3/5)-(2/5/7/9)-(4/2/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-2   WIN (2/5/7/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/7/9)-(2/5/7/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/5/7/9)-(2/5/7/9)-(2/5/7/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/5/7/9)-(4/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/5/7/9)-(4/2/1)-(7/8/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-3   WIN (4/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/1)-(4/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/2/1)-(4/2/1)-(4/2/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/2/1)-(7/8/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/2/1)-(7/8/3)-(8/3/6/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-4   WIN (7/8/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/8/3)-(7/8/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/8/3)-(7/8/3)-(7/8/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/8/3)-(8/3/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/8/3)-(8/3/6/5)-(11/8/9/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-5   WIN (8/3/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/3/6/5)-(8/3/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/3/6/5)-(8/3/6/5)-(8/3/6/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/3/6/5)-(11/8/9/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/3/6/5)-(11/8/9/7)-(9/3/8/10/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
ELP-6   WIN (11/8/9/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (11/8/9/7)-(11/8/9/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (11/8/9/7)-(11/8/9/7)-(11/8/9/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (11/8/9/7)-(9/3/8/10/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (11/8/9/7)-(9/3/8/10/4)-(7/5/1/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
ELP-7   WIN (9/3/8/10/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/3/8/10/4)-(9/3/8/10/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/3/8/10/4)-(9/3/8/10/4)-(9/3/8/10/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/3/8/10/4)-(7/5/1/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (9/3/8/10/4)-(7/5/1/3)-(3/7/9/5/10) 100 $1.00 $100 
ELP-8   WIN (7/5/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/5/1/3)-(7/5/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/5/1/3)-(7/5/1/3)-(7/5/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/5/1/3)-(3/7/9/5/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ELP-9   WIN (3/7/9/5/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/7/9/5/10)-(3/7/9/5/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/7/9/5/10)-(3/7/9/5/10)-(3/7/9/5/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   06/25/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HINENI Mar25 Oct21       (zito p)BEJARANO R 118 10.00    
2  BOURBON FEVER Jun01         (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 31% 2.20    
3  STORMIN ARMY Mar18 Feb25 Jan28 Aug13 Jun30 (vance davi)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 5.00 10% 9.20    
4  AUTO DIAL         (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 118 12.00    
5  STUDY COMMITTEE         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  MACHO VILLA Jun04 May06 Apr08 Mar18 Feb18 (lukas w)TORRES A 118 3.00    
7  ELITE FORCES         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.50 36% 1.80    
SCR  CALLIE'S PASSION May19 Sep16 Jul20     (rutledge lanc)GILLIGAN JACK 113 8.00    
 
ELP-2   06/25/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LUXURIATE May27         (casse mar)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of PLATINUM PREFERRED by VINDICATION)
2  LIAM'S MESSAGE May27 May12 Apr28     (gutierrez)TORRES A 119 3.50 53% 0.90    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of LEFT A MESSAGE by MR. GREELEY)
SCR  TAMBARELLA         (hancock jo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of BELLADONNIA by BAYERN)
4  PARTAKE Jun10         (wojczynski)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of MINCE by WAR FRONT)
5  BOOMIN' BELLE May12         (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00 12% 7.50    
  (by GET STORMY out of VERA BELLE by NOT FOR LOVE)
6  CAT ONE         (mott riley)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of MARIE CURIE by KITTEN'S JOY)
7  TWIRLING QUEEN         (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00 11% 8.40    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of ADVENTUROUS LADY by KANTHAROS)
8  DANCING PRINCESS Jun10         (spicer james )BECKMAN ALICE 112 20.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of CASTINETTE DANCER by MINISTERS WILD CAT)
9  NAUGHTY MISS         (roberson )HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FREE DROP BILLY out of INCLUDING by INCLUDE)
SCR  THORPEDO ANNA         (mcpeek kennet)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00    
  (by FAST ANNA out of SATAVES by UNCLE MO)
SCR  MRS. RIP         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 119 20.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of HAUTE COUTURE by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SCR  SHIMMERING ALLURE Jun10         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
  (by ENTICED out of SHIMMERING TALE by WILD AGAIN)
 
ELP-3   06/25/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FIELD DAY Jul13 May17 Mar19     (devaux che)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00 9% 10.10    
2  LET MY PEOPLE GO May29 Apr16 Dec02 Nov17 Nov04 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 123 1.80 26% 2.80    
3  FRIAR LAURENCE May29 Apr26 Mar23 Jan18 Nov21 (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 121 15.00    
4  MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE Apr08 Mar10 Feb10 Jan13 Dec16 (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 121 2.50 40% 1.50    
5  PURPLE DREAM Apr26 Mar18 Jan14 Dec16 Jun20 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 15.00    
6  TULANE TRYST Jun01 Jan27 Dec26 May04 Mar19 (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 121 5.00    
 
ELP-4   06/25/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($25K) Purse ($68K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUST CALL RAY May27 May12 Mar10 Feb01 Jan20 (hiles a)LANERIE J 120 15.00    
SCR  STORMY PATTERN May20 Apr07 Mar03 Jan08 Dec17 (maker mi)SANTANA JR 118 10.00    
3  ALLEGE May29 May03 Mar19 Aug01 Jun16 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 17% 5.00    
SCR  AMERICAN PURE May13 Apr16 Mar12 Jan28 Dec18 (o'dwyer jeremiah)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
5  FIFTY CENT DOLLARS May27 Apr29 Apr01 Feb20 Feb05 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 4.00    
6  SHORTLIST Jun02 Apr16 Mar16 Dec15 Oct03 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
7  FLOKI'S FLIGHT May28 May13 Mar30 Jan07 Nov27 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 120 2.50 31% 2.30    
8  DON'T FORGET May04 Apr07 Mar03 Jan28 Jan06 (shorter a)TORRES A 120 3.50 19% 4.20    
 
ELP-5   06/25/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LEMON DROP SHOT May29 May03 Mar31 Mar17 Feb18 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 122 3.00    
2  CLASSY SOCKS Jun04 Mar23 Mar05 Feb25 Feb04 (vance d)LANERIE J 122 6.00    
3  NITROMAN Feb23 Feb02 Oct12 Sep07   (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  CAMP DADDY May27 May21 May04 Dec02 Oct12 (gutierrez )GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.50    
5  BORN FLAWLESS May29 May12 Apr12 Feb20 Jan28 (heitzman e)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  MISTER SHARPIE May18 Mar09 Feb10 Jul10   (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  TROPIC STORM Jun04 May12 Apr18 Mar25 Feb17 (habeeb donald)MORALES EDGAR 122 5.00    
8  BACK TO NORMAL May20 Apr15 Dec21 Nov17 Feb11 (simms jr)NAVAS YOEL 115 4.00 68% 0.50    
 
ELP-6   06/25/2023 5940ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KENTUCKY JOKER Mar04 Jan28 Dec31 Nov19   (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 20.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of LISVERNANE by ARCH)
SCR  RUNNINGFORJOY May28 Apr28       (tomlinson michael )GRAHAM J 118 30.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of JOY FILLED by PULPIT)
SCR  MR. KEATING Jun02 Apr22       (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50    
  (by CARPE DIEM (FR) out of TWEETERDINI by BERNARDINI)
4  CANAVALL Dec16 Oct09       (vaughan edwar)CANNON DECLAN 118 20.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of PALMA by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  MOUNT CRAIG May02 Mar23 Mar02 Feb04 Nov27 (moquett r)LEPAROUX R 125 6.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of FLASH FORWARD by SCROLL)
6  DR KRINGLE Jun02 Apr27 Mar17     (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 125 5.00    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of HUG DOC by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
7  TEXAS PRIDE May06 Apr02 Jan28 Dec16 Sep17 (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CURLIN out of GIFTING by STREET CRY (IRE))
8  QUALITY CHIC May28 May06 Apr22 Apr01 Mar11 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 13% 6.80    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of CHICA BOOM CHIC by TAPIT)
9  UNLOAD Apr02 Feb18       (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00 9% 9.90    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of UNTAPPED by MALABAR GOLD)
SCR  ARCHIE THE GIZA May28 May04       (medina robert)GARCIA MARTIN 125 15.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of GLORIA S by TAPIT)
11  HARBOUR BRIDGE Jun02 May06 Mar25     (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 54% 0.90    
  (by JUSTIFY out of TIGER MOTH by STREET SENSE)
12  HERO'S MEDAL May02 Mar26       (stall m)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of MAGICAL MOON by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  DREAMWITHINADREAM Jun04 Jan27 Jan14 Nov26 Oct30 (hiles je)SANTANA JR 118 30.00    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of SUDESTADA by STREET CRY (IRE))
SCR  STAND PROUD Jun02 Apr22 Mar23 Mar12 Jan27 (baker jam)TORRES A 125 8.00    
  (by FLASHBACK out of LIL INDY by BUCKLEY BOY)
 
ELP-7   06/25/2023 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HELENS WELL (IRE) May02 Nov27 Oct29 Sep04 Jul23 (reed r)BEJARANO R 124 12.00    
2  MO SHIRO May29 May02 Mar02 Feb05 Dec31 (catalano w)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50    
3  MISREAD Jun02 May14 Oct07 May06 Mar26 (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 124 5.00 10% 8.90    
4  AIN'T BROKE Jun02 Apr27 Mar15 Feb16 Dec22 (calhoun william)LANERIE J 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  WORK OF FICTION May17 Apr19 Feb18 Jan15 Nov16 (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 118 8.00    
6  HOWBOUTDEMAPPLES Jun02 May07 Apr09 Mar13 Feb13 (d'amato phil)GEROUX FLORENT 124 8.00    
7  LADY COMMANDER Apr28 Mar30 Mar04 Feb17 Jan22 (fires h)COURT K 124 15.00    
8  SWISS FRANC Apr01 Feb22 Jan25 Dec21   (devaux ch)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00 8% 11.10    
9  GLORIA'S PRINCESS May03 Apr01       (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 120 2.00 50% 1.00    
10  FIDDLE Jun02 Feb11 Dec15 Oct28 Sep14 (meah m)MACHADO LUAN 124 15.00 5% 17.30    
SCR  SHEWILLGHOSTU Mar25 Feb22 Jan21 Dec11 Jun22 (mott rile)TORRES A 118 10.00    
SCR  OPENING NIGHT May12 Mar26 May04 Feb11   (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.00    
 
ELP-8   06/25/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 3 ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOHEMIAN BO May28 May06 Apr08 Mar12 Feb26 (vance tho)TORRES A 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  EDDIE M May28 May03 Nov19 Oct21   (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 122 12.00    
3  BLUE LIGHT May21 Apr08 Mar11     (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  GOLD LUCK May28 May20 Apr26 Mar09 Feb10 (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00    
5  ZAMBEZI May28 May05 Apr01     (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 37% 1.70    
6  BRAZEN BOY May19 Mar25 Mar09 Feb03 Dec29 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
7  SWEET CHERRY PIE May21 Apr14 Mar04     (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 118 1.20 39% 1.60    
8  BOURBON BASH Jun03 May06 Apr01 Feb25 Feb04 (lukas wayne)GARCIA MARTIN 118 6.00    
 
ELP-9   06/25/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROYAL FLOWER Jun18 May19 Feb19     (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.50    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of MODIFICATION by VINDICATION)
2  AMERICAN FAIRYTALE Dec29 Nov24 Oct30     (wilkes ia)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of FAIRYLAND by SCAT DADDY)
3  BABY GOT BACKSPIN Nov23 Oct28 Sep25 Aug13 Jul01 (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.00 60% 0.70    
  (by KANTHAROS out of SHOWTIME SIS by EUROEARS)
4  CUTE KHLOE Feb18 Jan25 Nov24 Oct22   (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 8.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of AMBER ROMANCE by BAHAMIAN BOUNTY (GB))
5  CALLAS         (mott rile)TORRES A 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of CHORAL SYMPHONY by A.P. INDY)
6  AMERICAN MAESTRA Apr15         (gallagher willi)HEARD TYLER 118 12.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of QUIET PASSAGE by BELLAMY ROAD)
7  SASSY WALKER May20 Apr21       (d'amato philip)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00 11% 8.40    
  (by MUNNINGS out of SASINI by FASTNET ROCK)
8  ANIMAL FRIES         (newton troy)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of R NAJA by EXCHANGE RATE)
9  PELICAN LANE May20 Jan07       (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BLAME out of SEA ROAD by TALE OF THE CAT)
10  JENNIFER MY LOVE         (davis christ)GEROUX FLORENT 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of CRESPANO by MINESHAFT)
SCR  GOING THE DISTANCE Mar26 Mar01       (shirer m)SANTANA JR 118 8.00    
  (by TAPWRIT out of SHEISINITTOWINIT by STUDENT COUNCIL)
SCR  GOLD TICKET Apr22 Mar11       (peitz dan )MURRILL MITCHELL 118 10.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of NO JOKE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  CALM COOL Feb26 Feb09       (stall m)LANERIE J 118 8.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of PORT CHARLOTTE by BLAME)
SCR  MY LILY MAE May24 Mar31 Mar11 Aug14 Jul29 (kinmon keith)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 4.00    
  (by SKY MESA out of ABSOLUTELY CINDY by ARCH)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.