Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Saturday - October 01, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   10/01/2022 5940ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HEY BOSS Sep15 Aug24 Jul31 Jun29 Jun08 (werre danny)MCKEE J 120 8.00 ★    
2  BIG PETE Sep15 Aug25 Jul16 Jul03 May26 (barrett r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 6.00    
3  LITTLE RED RIFLE Sep21 Aug19 Aug02 Jun08 May13 (semkin sam)MOJICA JR 120 8.00 7% 12.60    
4  ON SPOT Jul29 Jul15 Jul07 Jun29 Jun18 (cash l)BEJARANO R 120 8.00    
5  THACH Sep15 Aug05 Jul03 Jun12   (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 120 1.60 ★    
6  COMMAND CENTRAL Aug19 Jul29 Jun24 Mar12 Feb23 (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 2.50 49% 1.00    
7  GO VIRTUAL Sep20 Aug19 Jul22 Jun19 Jun05 (gonzalez re)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 6.00 15% 5.80    
 
CD-2   10/01/2022 3630ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHANIAH Aug16 Jul27 Jun17 Jan20 Jan01 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 121 3.00 24% 3.20    
2  SHELL SHOCK Jul31 Jul03 Apr22     (vaccarezza)CORRALES GERARDO 121 5.00 ★    
3  COMEDY ACT Jul30 Jun17 May19 Mar20 Jan23 (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 2.50 28% 2.60    
4  ICY RIVER Sep07 Aug20 Aug06 Jun01 May10 (foster eric)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00    
5  IN MY OPINION Aug29 Jul16 Jun25 May28   (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 8.00 7% 13.50    
6  MINUTE WALTZ Sep05 Jun26 Jun02     (bauer a)BEJARANO R 121 2.00 ★    
 
CD-3   10/01/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FABULOSITY Sep01 Jul31       (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50    
2  LONG BLACK VEIL         (reed r)LEON SONNY 119 15.00 7% 13.40    
3  TENACIOUS LADY Aug28         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00    
4  CUPIDS PAYDAY         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 16% 5.20    
5  GRAY FROST Aug14         (reed r)MCKEE J 119 15.00    
6  MS HAYLEY         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 16% 5.20    
7  CHIPMUNK Sep23 Sep02 Aug07 Jul15   (casse mark)GARCIA MARTIN 119 4.50 20% 4.00    
8  FLY CONDOR Sep05 Aug18       (meah m)DIAZ RENE 114 8.00    
9  ROYAL BELLE         (casse mark)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 12.00 7% 13.40    
10  UNKEPT SECRET         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 10.00    
11  TWELVE SHARP         (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 10.00    
 
CD-4   10/01/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WEST WARPATH Sep21 Jul22 Jul03     (cano mu)GEROUX FLORENT 122 8.00    
2  AMERICAN PURE Aug20 Jul15 May21 Apr20 Mar12 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 ★    
3  EL FRANCO Sep18 Jul17 Jun22 May30 May12 (norris mike)BEJARANO R 122 20.00    
4  RUNWAY MAGIC Jun17 Apr16       (drury jr)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.00 36% 1.70    
5  UNDECODED Jul23 Jul08 Jun11 May27 Apr24 (divito p)SAEZ GABRIEL 115 3.50 12% 7.50    
SCR  ARTHURIAN Sep15 Aug21 Aug03 Jul12   (caramori caio)ACHARD ALEX 122 4.00 25% 3.00    
7  MEAN MACHINE Aug30 Aug02 Jul18 May19 Apr16 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 122 12.00    
8  TACHLIS Aug29 Jul19 Jul09 Jun10 May05 (glyshaw tim)MORALES EDGAR 115 20.00 ★    
 
CD-5   10/01/2022 5610ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  O GANGSTER Aug28         (delgado gustavo)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
2  PRAIRIE DUNES Sep03         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 3.00 18% 4.40    
3  NO EASY DAYS Aug28         (mccarthy mich)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00 ★    
4  FORTUNE Sep01 Aug12       (walsh bre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 12.00    
5  DENINGTON Aug28 Aug05       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 6% 15.30    
6  MILLERS RITE Aug17         (vance d)COURT K 119 20.00    
7  MAGNIFICENT MILE Aug21         (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 24% 3.10    
8  PYRENEES Aug28         (devaux ch)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
9  ESCAPOLOGIST         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 15.00    
10  TAPIT'S CONQUEST Sep03         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 31% 2.30    
 
CD-6   10/01/2022 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LYKAN Jul24 Jun25 May08 Apr15 Mar25 (mason ingrid)BAILEY CHEL-C 116 15.00    
2  SURVEILLANCE Sep15 Jul24 May28 Apr29 Apr09 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 121 3.00 ★    
3  MY MAN FLINTSTONE Aug26 Jul15 Jun25 Jun08 May22 (hernandez rey)MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00 7% 13.90    
4  O BESOS Apr09 Feb19 Jan02     (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 1.80 35% 1.80    
5  LOFTY ADJUDICATOR Aug22 Jul20 Jun25 May19 Apr14 (navarrete anna)MCKEE J 121 20.00    
SCR  KAVOD Sep21 Aug26 May07 Apr02 Feb26 (hartman ch)HERNANDEZ J 120 2.50 14% 6.20    
7  FORE LEFT Sep08 Jul23 Jun12 May15 Apr17 (dun)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 121 4.50 13% 6.60    
 
CD-7   10/01/2022 5610ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FRANK'S HONOR Sep15 Aug13       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 20% 4.00    
2  MANO DURA Aug20         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
3  ELDEST SON Aug30         (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
4  GAME WARDEN Aug27         (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00    
5  SPIELMAN Aug21 Jul22       (desormeaux)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00    
6  RECKER POINT Sep16 Aug28       (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 119 4.00 21% 3.80    
7  CURLINS INCHARGE Sep08         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 10.00 5% 18.50    
8  DESERT WOLF Sep03         (pletcher todd)VELAZQUEZ R 119 4.50 ★    
9  TEN DAYS LATER Sep14 Aug28       (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 6.00 31% 2.20    
10  PAPPY WOLFE Sep03         (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
11  BIG POPPER Sep08         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 12.00    
 
CD-8   10/01/2022 5940ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TEPEU Aug13 Jul01 Jun05 May15 Mar26 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 ★    
2  HAPPY BOY ROCKET Sep08 Jun12 Apr23 Apr16 Mar12 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 10.00    
3  TIZ RYE TIME Aug01 Jul02 Apr30 Mar31 Mar18 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 122 12.00 ★    
4  THE PRINCE'S SPUR Aug24 Jul22 Jun03     (bauer phi)LEPAROUX R 118 10.00    
5  TIWANAKU Sep03 Jul22 Jun30 Jun09 Apr22 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00 ★    
6  ELUSIVE TARGET Aug14 Mar12 Feb11 Jan14   (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00    
7  STRONG QUALITY Sep03 Mar19 Feb19 Jan23   (casse ma)SANTANA JR 118 3.50 64% 0.60    
8  OPEN ROAD Jul29 Jun19 May20     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00 14% 6.30    
9  FENWICK Sep03 Aug05 May21 Apr09 Mar12 (lyn)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 118 20.00    
10  COMPLETE AGENDA Aug18 Jul22 May14 Apr21 Feb26 (pletcher todd)VELAZQUEZ R 118 8.00    
11  O P FIRECRACKER Jul02 Jun09 May17 Apr09 Mar05 (medina robert)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 12.00    
 
CD-9   10/01/2022 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Grade III Stake/Handicap Purse ($300K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPEAKER'S CORNER Aug27 Jul02 Jun11 Apr09 Mar05 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 125 1.00 44% 1.30    
  (by STREET SENSE out of TYBURN BROOK by BERNARDINI)
2  UNTREATED Sep03 Jul09 May20 Apr02 Feb19 (pletcher todd)VELAZQUEZ R 121 4.50 ★    
  (by NYQUIST out of FULLY LIVING by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
3  FULSOME Aug06 Jun25 May06 Apr02   (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 123 5.00 ★    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of FLOURISH by DISTORTED HUMOR)
4  SURLY FURIOUS Sep19 Aug22 Jul23 Jul05 Jun13 (wismer s)SAEZ LUIS 121 20.00 31% 2.20    
  (by UPSTART out of PERFECT PREDICTION by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
5  THREE TECHNIQUE Jul04 Jun05 May07 Apr09 Mar12 (cook b)BEJARANO R 121 12.00    
  (by MR SPEAKER out of NITE IN ROME by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
6  SILVER PROSPECTOR Aug06 Jul09 May30 May01 Apr02 (asmussen)SANTANA JR 123 12.00    
  (by DECLARATION OF WAR out of TAP SOFTLY by TAPIT)
7  INJUNCTION Aug06 Jul04 Jun05 May07 Apr16 (vaccarezza)CORRALES GERARDO 121 10.00    
  (by SKIPSHOT out of VALID VALENCIA by NORTHERN AFLEET)
8  SENOR BUSCADOR Aug27 Jul30 Jul03     (fincher t)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 12.00 ★    
  (by MINESHAFT out of ROSE'S DESERT by DESERT GOD)
SCR  MAILMAN MONEY Aug06 Jun25       (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 30.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of RUNNING DEBI C by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  TWILIGHT BLUE Aug13 Jun25 May13 Apr02 Feb25 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00    
  (by AIR FORCE BLUE out of LILY THE PINK by RAHY)
 
CD-10   10/01/2022 5940ft DIRT RC5 FAST Grade II Stake/Handicap Purse ($500K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KING FURY Aug13 Apr02       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 15.00 ★    
  (by CURLIN out of TARIS by FLATTER)
2  ART COLLECTOR Aug26 Aug04       (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 125 2.00 39% 1.60    
  (by BERNARDINI out of DISTORTED LEGACY by DISTORTED HUMOR)
3  HAPPY SAVER Aug06 Jun11 May06     (pletcher todd)VELAZQUEZ R 121 2.50 27% 2.70    
  (by SUPER SAVER out of HAPPY WEEK by DISTORTED HUMOR)
4  RICH STRIKE Aug27 Jun11 May07 Apr02 Mar05 (reed r)LEON SONNY 122 6.00    
  (by KEEN ICE out of GOLD STRIKE by SMART STRIKE)
5  HOT ROD CHARLIE Aug06 Jun18       (o'neill do)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 1.60 12% 7.50    
  (by OXBOW out of INDIAN MISS by MI CIELO)
6  CHESS CHIEF Sep03 Aug04 Jun25 Mar26 Jan29 (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 20.00 ★    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of UN BLESSED by MINESHAFT)
 
CD-11   10/01/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TWENTYTWENTY HOAX Aug20 Aug06 Jul16 Jul01 Jun11 (kin)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 124 15.00    
2  ITDOWHATITDO         (sims phili)CORRALES GERARDO 121 10.00    
3  ONE TIME MO Apr28         (pessin l)LANERIE J 121 8.00 6% 14.80    
4  MO HAPPY         (thompson bo)STERRITT KENDAL 121 20.00    
5  ANKYRAH Sep03 Feb18 Jan01     (morey wil)LEPAROUX R 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  BIDOFHONEY         (catalano way)GEROUX FLORENT 121 12.00    
7  SCARLET STRIPE Aug13         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 26% 2.90    
8  AMARYLLIS KISS Sep14 Aug19 Jul30 Jul02   (asmussen)SANTANA JR 121 3.00 25% 2.90    
9  YOUR SO SILLEA Aug07 Jul10       (sims a)GILLIGAN JACK 121 15.00    
10  GET BY Aug27 Jul16 Jun22 May15 Mar13 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 15.00 12% 7.50    
11  DELIGHTOF THE NILE         (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 121 10.00    
12  MARKSWOMAN         (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 121 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.