Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - May 23, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (5/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/4)-(5/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/6/4)-(5/6/4)-(5/6/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/6/4)-(7/8/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/6/4)-(7/8/1)-(3/2/7/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (7/8/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/8/1)-(7/8/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/8/1)-(7/8/1)-(7/8/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/8/1)-(3/2/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/8/1)-(3/2/7/5)-(7/4/6/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-3   WIN (3/2/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/2/7/5)-(3/2/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/2/7/5)-(3/2/7/5)-(3/2/7/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/2/7/5)-(7/4/6/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/2/7/5)-(7/4/6/5)-(3/1/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (7/4/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/6/5)-(7/4/9/6/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/4/6/5)-(7/4/9/6/5)-(7/4/9/6/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/4/6/5)-(3/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/4/6/5)-(3/1/4)-(3/6/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-5   WIN (3/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/4)-(3/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/4)-(3/1/4)-(3/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/4)-(3/6/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/1/4)-(3/6/4)-(6/5/1/2/4) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-6   WIN (3/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/4)-(3/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/6/4)-(3/6/4)-(3/6/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/6/4)-(6/5/1/2/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (3/6/4)-(6/5/1/2/4)-(7/6/5/2/9) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-7   WIN (6/5/1/2/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/5/1/2/4)-(6/5/1/2/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/5/1/2/4)-(6/5/1/2/4)-(6/5/1/2/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/5/1/2/4)-(7/6/5/2/9) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (6/5/1/2/4)-(7/6/5/2/9)-(4/6/3/8) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-8   WIN (7/6/5/2/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/6/5/2/9)-(7/6/5/2/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/6/5/2/9)-(7/6/5/2/9)-(7/6/5/2/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/6/5/2/9)-(4/6/3/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-9   WIN (4/6/3/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/6/3/8)-(4/6/3/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/6/3/8)-(4/6/3/8)-(4/6/3/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/23/2025 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($62K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CREATIVE QUALITY Apr26 Mar29 Mar07 Feb13 Jan30 (foster er)TORRES A 123 4.00    
2  FUN TO RUN Apr29 Feb08 Jan16 Nov27 Oct30 (hess b)ORTIZ L 118 3.50    
SCR  CAROLINA CANDY May15 Apr10 Feb27 Jul06 Jun20 (ennis john)MACHADO LUAN 123 5.00    
4  LOU ANNA Apr26 Sep04 Aug24 Aug03 Dec08 (mccutchen jas)CANNON DECLAN 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  BOLT ON THE ROCKS Apr26 Mar22 Feb09 Aug09 May23 (hartman chris)CURTIS BEN 125 2.00 43% 1.30    
6  SOMBRA DORADA Apr10 Mar07 Jan16 Nov21 Sep18 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 123 3.00 21% 3.70    
7  ROSE ALABAMA Jul05 Jun12 May17 Mar30   (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 123 12.00    
 
CD-2   05/23/2025 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SIR VINCENT Apr18         (hancock l)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 6.00 11% 8.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of LADY TULA by BIG SURF)
2  COMPRESSED         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 10.00    
  (by GREEN FOREST out of FERIA DE FLORES by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  GIRL NAMED KNICKI         (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 116 8.00    
  (by KNICKS GO out of CAUSEFORCOMMOTION by AMERICAIN)
SCR  CAPTAIN GABE May01         (mccarthy michael )SAEZ LUIS 119 2.00    
  (by INSTAGRAND out of OLD VALYRIA by OLD FORESTER)
SCR  FLASH THE MAGIC         (gallagher william )MURGIA A 119 15.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of QUIET PASSAGE by BELLAMY ROAD)
6  SENSE OF FREEDOM Apr10         (seglin e)RIQUELME J 119 15.00    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of COMPLETE SENSE by STREET SENSE)
7  BAYTOWN DREAMER Apr10         (mcentee p)BEALMEAR C 114 4.50 37% 1.70    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of COLERFUL BRIDE by MUNNINGS)
8  SPICE RUNNER         (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 119 2.50 32% 2.10    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of SIMPLE SURPRISE by COWBOY CAL)
 
CD-3   05/23/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($62K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOYS CODE Jan30 Jan03 Nov21 Oct25 Sep29 (dutrow e)SAEZ LUIS 124 5.00    
2  ONE MOR STORY May09 Apr30 Apr10     (hill f)MONCADA IRVING 115 4.00 15% 5.60    
3  INDY MAGIC Apr12 Mar29 Mar01 Aug24 Jun30 (casse mark)ORTIZ L 124 2.00 52% 0.90    
4  SPRINT OUT PASS Apr29 Apr06 Mar08 Feb14 Jan17 (medina robe)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 6.00    
5  CATALINA CAT Apr29 Apr06 Feb21 Jan16   (bahena ismael)SANJUR SANTO 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  WARRIOR WAYNE Apr29 Mar22 Feb15 Dec21   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50    
7  ASK ARTHUR Apr19 Mar05 Jan26 Dec21 Oct04 (sims p)BEJARANO R 124 8.00 5% 18.20    
 
CD-4   05/23/2025 3300ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THEBABESLAYER         (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 119 8.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of CANDY BAY by CANDY RIDE)
2  BAYTOWN ANUBIS May01 Apr18       (mcentee p)BEALMEAR C 114 20.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of PARTISAN POLITICS by MORE THAN READY)
3  COLLECTING         (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 119 8.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of HEIDI MARIA by ROCKPORT HARBOR)
4  GRANT'S GRETCHEN Apr25         (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 116 3.50 34% 1.90    
  (by MUNNINGS out of SUTTON'S SMILE by PADDY O'PRADO)
5  RED SPEEDO Apr07         (hancock joh)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GAME WINNER out of PERFECT REFLECTION by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
6  STRONG         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY out of SWEET GOLD by GILDED TIME)
7  OUTFIELDER         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 119 2.50 41% 1.40    
  (by TAKE ME OUT (IRE) out of PLUME POPPY by HAGLEY)
8  BREA FROM THREE Apr10         (ennis jo)RODRIGUEZ A 119 12.00    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of MISSION FROM ELLE by NOBLE MISSION (GB))
9  SKIPPING STARS         (d'angelo fra)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 ★    
  (by SKIP AWAY out of STARRY ICE by ICE AGE)
10  MODERATOR         (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 119 6.00    
  (by THOUSAND WORDS out of PEACE OPPORTUNITY by POINT OF ENTRY)
SCR  FUZZY STARE         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 119 3.50    
  (by HOOTENANNY out of BISTRO MONCUR by LONHRO (AUS))
 
CD-5   05/23/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($86K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HONKY TONK HIGHWAY Mar19 Nov30 Mar24 Feb13 Jan18 (calhoun wi)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 22% 3.50    
2  SCAT FREE May01 Apr05 Mar08 Jan12 Dec26 (wilson shane)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00    
3  CHIRINGO Apr25 Mar21 Feb24 Jan31 Jan05 (shirer matt )GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.00 39% 1.60    
4  MAJOR BLUE Mar22 Feb24 Jan31 Jan05 Nov22 (lukas wayne)JUAREZ NIK 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  FRIAR LAURENCE Apr25 Mar29 Feb17 Jan31 Dec20 (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50    
SCR  HAPPY AMERICAN May01 Apr12 Feb13 Jan18 Dec21 (jacobson david)ORTIZ L 118 3.00    
7  FURIOUS ANGER Nov24 Nov03 Sep22 Jul18 Jun23 (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 10.00    
 
CD-6   05/23/2025 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHOPPER'S REVENGE Apr09 Feb15 Jun27 May27 May02 (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 124 4.00    
2  TOUR PLAYER Nov28 Oct31 Oct05 May27 May04 (baffert bob)GEROUX FLORENT 124 5.00    
3  MAP TO THE STARS Apr08 Mar04 Jan30 Dec22 Nov22 (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.50 55% 0.80    
4  GOOD MONEY Mar22 Feb22 Jan19 Apr06 Mar09 (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  PALM TREE May03 Apr13 Mar05 Feb01 Dec14 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 126 3.00    
6  OPTICAL May03 Jan30 Jan18 Nov24 Nov01 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 12.00 7% 12.60    
SCR  FOOTPRINT Nov28 Oct16 Apr13 Mar23 Feb24 (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 124 12.00    
8  GAMBLERS TAIL May01 Apr12 Mar07 Nov27 Oct31 (ortiz joh)LEPAROUX R 126 4.50    
SCR  SHOW OF FORCE Oct05 Sep08 Jul27 Jun29   (garcia genaro)CEDILLO ABEL 118 15.00    
 
CD-7   05/23/2025 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HARRODSBURG Apr12 Nov23 Oct30 Sep14 Aug04 (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 121 5.00 10% 9.40    
2  BANNED FOR LIFE Mar08 Jan10 Nov23 Oct04 Aug10 (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.50 7% 13.40    
3  CONDEMN Nov09 Sep22 Jun14 May24 Apr25 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 15.00    
4  NABOKOV Sep26 Aug28 Jul27 Jul04 Jun08 (moger jr)BEJARANO R 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  TWO EAGLES RIVER May01 Apr19 Mar15 Jan31 Jan05 (blair jor)TORRES A 121 5.00 27% 2.70    
6  ATTACHE Apr25 Feb23 Jan31 Jan04 Nov24 (hartman chris)CURTIS BEN 121 3.50 35% 1.90    
7  DEER DISTRICT May02 Apr12 Feb22 Feb07 Oct19 (stewart dalla)VELAZQUEZ R 121 12.00    
8  CAT ON TIME May01 Apr19 Mar29 Jan05 Dec27 (jacobson david)ORTIZ L 123 3.00    
9  BOHEMIAN BO Apr26 Mar29 Mar02 Jan31 Dec13 (vance tho)BEALMEAR C 116 6.00    
 
CD-8   05/23/2025 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOONLIT LADY Apr19 Mar15 Feb01 Dec28 Nov30 (maker michael )MACHADO LUAN 121 12.00    
2  PAYNT YA LATER May01 Apr13 Mar19 Aug11 Jul14 (moger jr)BEJARANO R 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  RUN FOR THE HILLS Apr19 Oct05 Sep14 Jul25 Jul11 (casse mark)ORTIZ L 121 6.00    
4  JILL JITTERBUG Apr26 Mar20 Feb12 Dec19 Nov14 (walsh ryan)CORRALES GERARDO 121 20.00    
5  LITTLE PRANKSTER Nov11 Oct12 Aug30 Jul30 Jun24 (bauer philip )ORTIZ JR 121 8.00 18% 4.70    
6  CROWN IMPERIAL May02 Apr10 Aug12 Jul07 May31 (ortiz alexan)SAEZ LUIS 123 2.00 29% 2.40    
7  BLING May02 Apr19 Dec14 Nov24 Oct24 (oliver victor)VELAZQUEZ R 121 2.50 31% 2.20    
8  SANDY BOTTOM Apr26 Feb23 Dec26 Nov15 Oct21 (mccarthy michael)CURTIS BEN 121 10.00    
9  ASTERNIA May02 Feb24 Jan31 Dec21 Nov28 (morse ran)TORRES A 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  LAURA'S CHARM Feb12 Jan25 Oct24 Sep29 Aug29 (kerrick la)HERNANDEZ J 121 20.00    
 
CD-9   05/23/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($64K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COPPERMASTER Apr16 Mar01 Feb01 Jan04 Dec07 (troiani nicco)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00    
2  METATRON'S MUSE Apr26 Feb01 Jan01 Nov29 Oct30 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 118 5.00    
3  WINSTON WOLF Apr13 Feb13 Jan27 Jan04 Nov21 (von donn)CEDILLO ABEL 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  FIRST STRIKE Mar27 Feb12 Dec12 Sep22 Apr14 (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.50 59% 0.70    
5  GASOLINE May03 Apr11 Feb24 Jan24 Jan05 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 4.50    
6  CAROLO RAPIDO Apr26 Mar22 Jan25 Jan05 Oct24 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 9% 9.50    
7  HUGE BIGLY May03 Feb14 Jan05 Nov16 Oct23 (shorter a)TORRES A 118 6.00    
8  ROUSSETTE Apr10 Feb15 Dec28 Nov20 Nov07 (roberson den)MONCADA IRVING 113 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  COUPERIN Apr29 Mar13 Feb07 Dec13 Nov21 (kordenbrock matt)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.