Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Belterra Park
Saturday - September 30, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
BTP-1   WIN (3/9/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/9/2/5)-(3/9/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/9/2/5)-(3/9/2/5)-(3/9/2/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/9/2/5)-(3/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (3/9/2/5)-(3/2)-(1/3/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
BTP-2   WIN (3/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/2)-(3/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    PK3 (3/2)-(1/3/8)-(4/5/3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
BTP-3   WIN (1/3/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/8)-(1/3/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/3/8)-(1/3/8)-(1/3/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (1/3/8)-(4/5/3/2)-(4/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
BTP-4   WIN (4/5/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/3/2)-(4/5/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/3/2)-(4/5/3/2)-(4/5/3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/5/3/2)-(4/8)-(5/1) 16 $0.50 $8.00 
BTP-5   WIN (4/8) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/8)-(4/8) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    PK3 (4/8)-(5/1)-(7/3) 8 $0.50 $4.00 
BTP-6   WIN (5/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/1)-(5/4/1) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (5/1)-(5/4/1)-(5/4/1) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    PK3 (5/1)-(7/3)-(3/7/4/5) 16 $0.50 $8.00 
BTP-7   WIN (7/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/3)-(7/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (7/3)-(3/7/4/5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
BTP-8   WIN (3/7/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/7/4/5)-(3/7/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/4/5)-(3/7/4/5)-(3/7/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
BTP-1   09/30/2023 3300ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($16K) Purse ($17.8K) 3UP ALL PT-12:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALL JOKES ASIDE Sep14 Aug26 Aug04 Jul13 May18 (meah m)HEARD TYLER 120 3.50    
2  THATSAFACTJACK Sep20 Aug10 May27 Apr23 Feb22 (cahill f)BUSH V 123 4.00 9% 9.80    
3  MIDNIGHT HURRICANE Aug23 Aug04 Jul15 Jan21 Dec28 (claire alexis)MCKEE J 123 2.00 44% 1.30    
4  DAY IN THE COUNTRY Sep14 Aug23 Aug09 Jul13 Jun22 (meredith ch)MIRANDA ROGELIO 123 20.00    
5  EL GAVILAN Sep14 Aug23 Dec28 Nov14 Nov02 (fernandez kel)CANUTO THIAGO 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  TENPAK Sep13 Sep01 Jul19 Jul06 Jun22 (hernandez ja)MARCANO Y 118 6.00    
SCR  DASH OF FIRE Sep14 Sep01 Aug18 Aug11 Nov30 (chain pearl)PANAIJO JORGE 125 15.00    
8  SCOOTERANDDABIGMAN Sep13 Aug02 Jun29 May17 Apr25 (langemeie)CORREA L 122 6.00    
9  BAYTOWN WARRIOR Sep18 Sep02 Aug17 Jan12 Dec22 (mcentee paul)ELLIOTT JANE 123 5.00 20% 4.10    
 
BTP-2   09/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($15.5K) 3UP M/F PT-12:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LA LA ANGEL Aug30 Aug19 Jul05 Jun08 May26 (tomlinson e)BUSH V 121 4.50    
2  CONGRATS JENSEN Aug21 Aug08 Jul17 Jun24 Jun13 (cline rob)CORREA L 121 3.00 25% 3.10    
3  THE LAST APPLE Aug09 Jul22 Jun17 Jun07 Dec03 (smith larry)OUZTS W 121 2.00 45% 1.20    
4  BEEBLEGEE Aug30 Aug23 Jul14 Jun15 May26 (silva ferna)LAGUNES GABRIEL 121 4.00    
5  STATUS SYMBOL Sep14 Aug17 Aug23 Aug01 Jul15 (fernandez edw)PANAIJO JORGE 123 3.50    
 
BTP-3   09/30/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($9K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOTAL SMOKESHOW Sep15 Aug14 Jul29 Jul09 Jan16 (calvo kelsie)MOJICA JR 121 2.50 29% 2.40    
2  AWESOME MARINA Sep15 Sep02 Aug19 Aug04 Jul08 (ramos rafael)PANAIJO JORGE 121 6.00    
3  PLEASANT SKY Sep06 Aug16       (margolis steph)ELLIOTT JANE 121 4.50 28% 2.50    
4  EXPLOSIVE SKIES Sep21 Aug23 Aug01 Jul07 Jun07 (patrick gary)MCKEE J 121 5.00    
5  DISHIN' IT OUT Sep18 Sep07 Aug23 Aug10 Jun27 (patrick gary)OUZTS W 121 10.00    
SCR  DELTA WISHES Aug26 Aug04 Jun21 May17 Jan24 (hamm timothy)LEBRON VICTOR 121 10.00    
7  DOGWOODS BECCA Aug17 Aug04 Jul21 Jul07 Jun16 (scott anthony)CANUTO THIAGO 124 12.00    
8  PONDERED Sep21 Sep05 Jul21     (caramori c)VILLARREAL OSCAR 116 3.50 16% 5.10    
 
BTP-4   09/30/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($26.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PALACE TEMPTATION Sep21 Sep09 Aug09 Aug01 Jul13 (chain pearl)PANAIJO JORGE 117 8.00    
SCR  DYNAMIC REACH Dec21 Oct20 Sep28 Sep14 Aug30 (chain pearl)PANAIJO JORGE 120 8.00    
2  ROAD TO MUSIC CITY Aug29 Aug11 Jun24 Jun09 May18 (beck rowena)MOJICA JR 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  MURRY SPUR Aug29 May24 Apr13 Apr04 Mar09 (smith larry)JIMENEZ ALBIN 120 6.00 23% 3.30    
4  WEEKENDER Aug11 Apr12 Mar20 Jan11 Dec21 (smith larry)OUZTS W 120 2.50 29% 2.40    
5  WETZEL Sep11 Aug23 Aug12 Jul27 Jun27 (cline rob)CORREA L 117 3.50 25% 3.00    
6  HONOR THE D Sep08 Aug19 Jun21 May24 Apr11 (bates l)LEBRON VICTOR 120 5.00    
7  LEROYISALAGNIAPPE Aug01 Jun02 Nov17 Nov01 Oct07 (bennett c)MCKEE J 120 4.50    
8  HEIDI'S SINATRA Sep08 Aug11 Jul15 Jul06 May25 (haehn terry)LAGUNES GABRIEL 120 12.00    
 
BTP-5   09/30/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($13.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BLUE NEITH Sep21 Aug24 Jul04 Jun05 Mar18 (watkins m)FELIX E 120 12.00    
SCR  LIAM'S LASS Sep12 Aug06 Jul06 Mar22 Mar01 (reed r)COLON H 120 5.00    
SCR  HOT HEELS Aug22 Jul04 Mar24 Feb15 Jan20 (fletcher ke)LAGUNES GABRIEL 120 6.00    
4  CARIBBEAN NIGHT Sep21 Sep02 Aug19 Jul22 Jan04 (drury jr)MCKEE J 120 2.00 49% 1.00    
SCR  MILLIONDOLARMONKEY Aug22 Jul23 Jun04 Feb15 Dec28 (reed r)OLIVEROS CHARLE 120 3.50    
SCR  LUCKY SHORE Sep15 Aug18 Aug04 Jul26 Jul07 (sturgeon c)OUZTS W 122 12.00    
SCR  HARDLY MISCHIEVOUS Sep08 Aug30 Jul15 Jul06 May20 (simms jr)LEBRON VICTOR 122 8.00    
8  RECOGNIZE ME Sep07 Aug18 Jul29 Feb02 Sep28 (blair jord)MICHEL MICKAELLE 117 4.00 27% 2.70    
9  GRAN CHEMIN Sep21 Sep02 Aug19 Jul26 Jun24 (cline robert )CANUTO THIAGO 120 12.00    
SCR  WICKED INTENT Sep21 Aug28 Aug04 Jul15 Mar15 (caramori caio)REYES R 120 10.00    
11  LOTTA ROSES Aug23 Aug02 Jul13 Jun29 Jun04 (meraz antoni)CENTENO ALEXIS 120 12.00    
 
BTP-6   09/30/2023 5490ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($16K) Purse ($17.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DIALED INNA Aug20 Jul12 Jun01 May07 Apr13 (watkins m)REYES FRANK 123 6.00 5% 19.00    
2  PARFAIT Sep06 Aug24 Jul22 Jun15 May12 (hamm timothy)TERRAZA GERMAN 118 4.50    
3  MISS MOON PIE Aug18 Jul27 Jul14 Jun21 May28 (beck ro)DE CRUZ 123 5.00    
4  BUCKEYE BLING Sep16 Aug16 Jul22 Jun23 Jan19 (greenhill jeff)MCKEE J 123 3.00 ★    
5  QUICKY DESIRE Aug17 Jul02 Jun16 May17 May04 (lobo paulo )OLIVEROS CHARLE 123 2.50 70% 0.40    
6  MEGAN'S NOEL Aug11 Jul11 Jun06 May08 Feb11 (grubbs jamie )JIMENEZ ALBIN 123 8.00    
7  LA ROSA Aug24 Jul19 Jul07 May25 Feb15 (hamm timothy)LEBRON VICTOR 123 3.50    
 
BTP-7   09/30/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($12.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MAJOR WAGER Sep13 Sep04 Jul21 Jul07 Jun02 (meah m)HEARD TYLER 120 3.50    
SCR  LYRICAL POET Sep03 Aug02 Oct23 Sep14 Jul29 (rodriguez hugo)COLON H 120 2.50    
3  ERIC THE SALESMAN Sep21 Sep03 Aug24 Jul27 Jul15 (calcano carlos)REYES R 120 10.00 22% 3.50    
SCR  FUNKY MUSIC Sep12 Aug14 Feb16 Jan12 Nov03 (fletcher ke)LAGUNES GABRIEL 120 20.00    
5  SAY IT AIN'T SO Aug26 Aug09 Jul21 Jul12 Jun22 (smith larry)OUZTS W 120 8.00    
SCR  EASILY INFLUENCED Aug02 Jul14 Oct04 Aug31 Aug18 (brafford mich)JIMENEZ ALBIN 120 12.00    
7  FLY FLY AWAY Aug24 Aug11 Jul21 Jul01 May06 (cahill f)BUSH V 120 4.50 29% 2.50    
SCR  BREAKTHROUGH Sep07 Jul30 May20 Aug14 Jul23 (ramos rafael)PANAIJO JORGE 122 4.00    
9  HINK'S PALADIN Sep18 May27 May06 Apr27 Mar24 (johnston rebe)CANUTO THIAGO 120 12.00    
SCR  NO COMMISSION Sep16 Sep07 Aug23 Aug09 Jul13 (figueroa ces)MARCANO Y 115 10.00    
 
BTP-8   09/30/2023 3630ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($10K) Purse ($14.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY TOMMY LEE Sep08 Aug29 Aug03 Mar11 Jan25 (sands shane)LEBRON VICTOR 121 10.00    
2  MERRY OF SOUL Sep14 Aug29 Aug10 Mar09 Feb16 (thomas mark)JIMENEZ ALBIN 121 10.00    
3  FIRST KITTEN Sep03 Aug17 Jul26 Jul12 Jun11 (meraz antoni)CENTENO ALEXIS 121 2.50 63% 0.60    
4  ERV'S WENCH Aug31 Aug11 Jun30 Jun09 May17 (smith larry)OUZTS W 123 3.00 6% 14.40    
5  FUTURE FLAY Jul05 Jun09 May17 Apr28 Feb25 (esquivel )CORREA L 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  WHISKEY SIS Sep09 Aug11 Aug01 Jul15 Jun30 (nocero carmino)REYES FRANK 121 15.00    
7  SIS BOOM BOB Sep14 Aug31 Aug12 Jun29 Jun14 (esquivel jesus)COLON H 121 4.50 10% 8.50    
8  KNOT WILD Aug31 Aug02 Jul08 May05 Feb14 (sandy s)MCKEE J 123 8.00    
9  SUPORB Sep14 Aug29 Aug15 Aug02 Jul12 (hernandez ja)MARCANO Y 116 5.00    
10  JOLIE RULER Sep14 Aug26 Aug15 Jul12 Jul05 (ramos franc)LAGUNES GABRIEL 123 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.