Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Saturday - March 11, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (7/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/3)-(7/3/2) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (7/3)-(7/3/2)-(7/3/2) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (7/3)-(2/3/6/4/5) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (7/3)-(2/3/6/4/5)-(6/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
AQU-2   WIN (2/3/6/4/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/3/6/4/5)-(2/3/6/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/3/6/4/5)-(2/3/6/4/5)-(2/3/6/4/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/3/6/4/5)-(6/5) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (2/3/6/4/5)-(6/5)-(3/7/1/6) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
AQU-3   WIN (6/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/5)-(6/5/3/1/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (6/5)-(6/5/3/1/2)-(6/5/3/1/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/5)-(3/7/1/6) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/5)-(3/7/1/6)-(2/6/3/1) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
AQU-4   WIN (3/7/1/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/7/1/6)-(3/7/1/6/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/7/1/6)-(3/7/1/6/5)-(3/7/1/6/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/7/1/6)-(2/6/3/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/7/1/6)-(2/6/3/1)-(7/3) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
AQU-5   WIN (2/6/3/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/3/1)-(2/6/7/3/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (2/6/3/1)-(2/6/7/3/1)-(2/6/7/3/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (2/6/3/1)-(7/3) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (2/6/3/1)-(7/3)-(7/3/2/5) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
AQU-6   WIN (7/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/3)-(7/3/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/3)-(7/3/2/1)-(7/3/2/1) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (7/3)-(7/3/2/5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (7/3)-(7/3/2/5)-(4/7/9/2/6) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
AQU-7   WIN (7/3/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/2/5)-(7/3/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/3/2/5)-(7/3/2/5)-(7/3/2/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/3/2/5)-(4/7/9/2/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/3/2/5)-(4/7/9/2/6)-(1/7/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
AQU-8   WIN (4/7/9/2/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/7/9/2/6)-(4/7/9/2/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/7/9/2/6)-(4/7/9/2/6)-(4/7/9/2/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/7/9/2/6)-(1/7/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/7/9/2/6)-(1/7/4)-(10/6/2/1) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
AQU-9   WIN (1/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/7/4)-(1/7/3/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/4)-(1/7/3/4/5)-(1/7/3/4/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (1/7/4)-(10/6/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
AQU-10   WIN (10/6/2/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/6/2/1)-(10/6/2/1/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/6/2/1)-(10/6/2/1/3)-(10/6/2/1/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   03/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 3 ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LOGIN REQUIRED Feb11 Dec16 Nov06 Aug22   (camejo m)DAVIS DYLAN 120 12.00 ★    
  (by RACE DAY out of MISS FONTANA by CLASSIC ACCOUNT)
2  WARMAN ROAD Sep16         (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 120 3.00 ★    
  (by UNIFIED out of GREAT HUMOR by DISTORTED HUMOR)
3  GLOBAL IMAGE         (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 120 1.80 10% 9.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of CLASS INCLUDED by INCLUDE)
SCR  NIEUWENDYK Feb24 Jan19 Dec29 Dec01 Nov11 (begg jame)VARGAS A 120 15.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of CRUZIN ON IN by STORMY ATLANTIC)
SCR  ONE BITE Feb21 Jan25 Dec03 Oct18 Sep24 (servis tyler)ADORNO ABNER 120 8.00 ★    
  (by MCCRAKEN out of STAR IN THE CORNER by HOLY BULL)
6  SWAY'SINMYDNA Feb24 Jan20 Jan14     (chatterp)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 30.00    
  (by CONNECT out of ALONG CAME POLLY by JUDPOT)
7  RIDE UP Feb18 Jan14       (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 1.60 66% 0.50    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of WALKWITHAPURPOSE by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
 
AQU-2   03/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($25K) Purse ($46K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNO Feb25 Jan26 Jan08 Nov02 Oct03 (delauro edward )CARMOUCHE K 123 6.00    
2  BRONX BOMBER Feb02 Jan01 Dec02 Nov17 Oct21 (kantarma)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 2.00 22% 3.60    
3  DOIN'ITTHERIGHTWAY Feb25 May20 Mar25 Feb12 Jan09 (englehart jeffr)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.00 16% 5.20    
4  VICTORY BUILT Feb10 Nov26 Nov09 Nov01 Oct05 (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 123 3.50 14% 6.30    
5  DOUBLE SHOT Feb11 Jan19 Jan05 Dec02 Nov17 (englehart chris)CANCEL ERIC 123 4.50 11% 7.90    
6  GANDY DANCING Mar03 Feb11 Jan05 Dec02 Oct16 (barrera osca)TORRES A 113 6.00 16% 5.20    
 
AQU-3   03/11/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($35K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BREW PUB Feb10 Jan21 Jan07 Dec10 Nov17 (arenas marce)LAPRIDA JEREMY 120 3.50 ★    
2  CUT THE CORD Jul16 Jun27 Jun08 May16 Mar31 (englehart jer)OLVER MADISON 113 6.00 ★    
3  JOEY LOOSE LIPS Feb12 Jan14 Dec29 Oct16 Sep24 (rodriguez ru)TORRES A 115 3.00 ★    
4  TURNSANDCONDITIONS Feb11 Feb05 Jan28 Jan12 Aug14 (persau)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 15.00    
5  NAKED AND FAMOUS Feb09 Jan29 Jan08 Aug25 Jul20 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 2.00 31% 2.20    
6  COUSIN ANDREW Jan28 Jan01 Dec16 Dec01 Aug10 (arriaga )GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 3.00 40% 1.50    
 
AQU-4   03/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3 F PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHAMAN PRINCESS Jan28         (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.00 23% 3.40    
  (by SHAMAN GHOST out of STORIED LADY by READ THE FOOTNOTES)
SCR  RUN CHATA Jan21         (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 5.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of DIAMOND DONA by BERNARDINI)
3  BE BEST         (terranov)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 2.00 27% 2.70    
  (by HARD SPUN out of LOVELY ISLE by DOUBLE HONOR)
4  MAJESTIC RETURN Feb11         (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 120 8.00    
  (by LONG ON VALUE out of MAJESTIC MIST by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
5  CHARISSE         (hennig ma)VARGAS A 120 10.00 ★    
  (by STREET SENSE out of MAXIMOVA by DANEHILL DANCER (IRE))
6  DEBBIE DARLING Feb11 Jan14       (abreu jorge )SAMUEL L 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FROST GIANT out of SUBTLE SWEETNESS by DURING)
7  DANSEUR D'ORO Jul27 Jun03       (morey e)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.00 25% 3.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of MISS CENTERFOLD by TIZNOW)
 
AQU-5   03/11/2023 5280ft DIRT RC6 SLOPPY Optional Claiming ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3 ALL PT- 2:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WINNING CONNECTION Jan19 Dec17 Dec01 Oct28 Oct02 (reynolds patric)DAVIS DYLAN 120 4.50 7% 14.30    
2  ARREBATO Feb24 Feb12       (chatt)HERNANDEZ OMAR 113 8.00 44% 1.30    
3  ADERO Jan24 Dec07 Oct28     (servis c)ADORNO ABNER 120 5.00 7% 14.20    
4  SOUNDS SPOOKY Mar05 Feb17 Dec30 Nov27 Oct16 (jone)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 15.00    
5  EMPIRE RIDE Feb09 Dec30 Nov11     (morley thomas)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.50    
6  INSPEIGHTOFTRAINER Jan14 Dec10 Nov27 Nov06 Sep21 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 120 5.00 10% 9.00    
7  MAMA'S GOLD Mar05 Jan21 Nov26 Aug11   (summers chad)OLVER MADISON 113 1.80 ★    
 
AQU-6   03/11/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($14K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOCTOR LOVE (FR) Feb17 Jan20 Jan07 Dec10 Oct23 (morley thomas)FRANCO MANUEL 120 1.80 ★    
2  BRUNATE Jan12 Dec10 Nov20 Oct27 Jul17 (bond ja)LEZCANO JOSE 120 6.00 ★    
3  JOKEMEISTER Feb20 Jan15 Dec19 Nov30 Nov07 (atras rob)DAVIS DYLAN 122 5.00 23% 3.40    
SCR  STORM SHOOTER Feb10 Jan12 Dec10 Nov13 Oct01 (rice)HUAYAS (JASON) 115 10.00 20% 4.00    
5  CATCHING CUPID Feb20 Jan12 Dec16 Dec02 Sep24 (arriaga )GOMEZ ANTONIO 122 15.00    
SCR  EXXTOP Mar05 Feb10 Jan26 Jan12 Dec16 (thompson mar)HARKIE K 120 30.00    
7  AFTER FIVE Feb12 Dec17 Nov20 Oct16 Oct06 (falcone robe)TORRES A 115 2.00 27% 2.70    
8  CAN'T BEAT ME Feb19 Feb09 Dec31 Dec04 Nov11 (begg j)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 10.00    
 
AQU-7   03/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CAPTIVATING CARA Feb11 Jan06 Oct01 Aug26 Jun25 (atras rob)CANCEL ERIC 123 6.00    
2  BELLA PRINCIPESSA Aug11 Jul17 Jun12 May15 Apr28 (klesaris ro)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 6.00 12% 7.40    
3  CHARLEY RUDE Feb08 Dec17 Nov09 Jun24 Apr15 (mccarthy mich)FRANCO MANUEL 123 4.50 12% 7.20    
SCR  REIGNING CHICK Feb20 Jan28 Jan15 Dec10 Nov27 (reynolds patric)DAVIS DYLAN 123 6.00 15% 5.70    
5  BIG BEAN CHRISTINE Feb09 Jan06 Dec01 Nov12 Oct13 (handal ra)VARGAS A 123 4.50 12% 7.50    
6  J D ADVANTAGE Jan22         (bar)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 123 8.00    
7  CUPIDS GIRL Feb09 Jan28 Dec02 Oct06 Aug11 (ryerson t)CARMOUCHE K 120 3.50 26% 2.90    
8  TRY IT AGAIN Mar05 Jan28 Jan05     (aren)HUAYAS (JASON) 116 10.00    
9  GAME THEORY Feb20 Feb09 Jan28 Jan08 Dec16 (jones)HERNANDEZ OMAR 116 15.00    
 
AQU-8   03/11/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($82K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CELESTIAL MOON Dec15 Nov10 Oct15     (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 123 3.50    
2  MAJORITY PARTNER Feb17 Sep23 Aug27 Jul14 Apr30 (rice)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 6.00 5% 18.90    
SCR  JUMPSTER Mar05 Feb19 Feb10 Jan15 Dec06 (persa)HERNANDEZ OMAR 113 50.00    
4  RESERVE CURRENCY Feb02 Nov03 Sep18     (brown c)DAVIS DYLAN 123 2.50 30% 2.40    
5  LUNI SIMA Jan29 Dec18 Nov26 Oct29 Sep25 (walder r)CANCEL ERIC 123 10.00    
6  SHIPSATIONAL Feb11 Jan13 Dec02 Oct29 Oct08 (barker edwa)MCCARTHY TREVOR 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  PATIENT CAPITAL Feb11 Jan14 Dec18 Nov26 Oct02 (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.50 28% 2.60    
SCR  THREE JOKERS Jan29 Jan14 Dec18 Oct29 Aug12 (terranov)GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 12.00    
9  SIX PERCENT Jan29 Jan06 Oct16 Sep05 Jul15 (englehart jerem)CARMOUCHE K 123 8.00 11% 8.00    
 
AQU-9   03/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 SLOPPY Correction Purse ($100K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROSSA VELOCE Jan27 Dec31 Nov13 Oct15 Sep01 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 120 1.20 50% 1.00    
  (by GIROLAMO out of SPUNTASTIC by HARD SPUN)
2  I'M BUZZY Feb25 Jan29 Jan07 Dec02 Nov17 (chichakly amira)DAVIS KATIE 118 12.00    
  (by LONG ISLAND SOUND out of MERRY MERRY BEE by PURIM)
3  PRODIGY DOLL Feb18 Jan07 Dec18 Jun17 Apr23 (schoenthal )MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 3.50 ★    
  (by SHANGHAI BOBBY out of HI LILI by SILVER DEPUTY)
4  FOUETTE Jan21 Dec30 Dec08 Nov11 Sep29 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 118 4.50 7% 13.60    
  (by NYQUIST out of ALLEZ MARIE by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
5  EASY TO BLESS Feb10 Jan05 Dec11 Jun10 May19 (ferraro )DAVIS A 118 6.00 ★    
  (by FLAT OUT out of ARBEKA by MR. GREELEY)
6  BIG TENTATIONS Jan23 Oct23 Sep23 Sep06 Jul14 (avila carl)CANCEL ERIC 118 30.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of MISSISSIPPI QUEEN by DIXIELAND BAND)
7  SECRET LOVE (ARG) Feb10 Jan05 Dec02 Oct30 Oct06 (kimmel c)DAVIS DYLAN 118 8.00 11% 7.80    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of EXOTIC DESIGN by A.P. INDY)
SCR  SELF ISOLATION Feb10 Jan21 Dec03 Nov11 Oct27 (jacobson david)LEZCANO JOSE 120 20.00    
  (by SQUARE EDDIE out of LOAN SAVANT by SPRING AT LAST)
 
AQU-10   03/11/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($35K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IMPULSIVE SPENDING         (morey willia)HARKIE K 118 10.00 9% 10.80    
2  MAKART Feb12 Jan21 Jan08 Dec01 Nov13 (ryerson t)DAVIS DYLAN 125 6.00 10% 8.90    
3  HELICOPTER MONEY Jan27 Nov12       (morley thomas)FRANCO MANUEL 118 4.50 ★    
4  METAMORPHOSES Jan05 Nov27 Oct16     (levine bruce)LUZZI J 118 20.00    
5  ETERNAL GLORY Feb25 Jan06       (chichakly amira)DAVIS KATIE 118 12.00    
6  LITTLE LUCA Dec10 Jun24       (breen kelly)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 3.00 10% 8.70    
7  ESCAPE MISSION Jan21 Dec11 Nov13     (handal ra)VARGAS A 125 6.00    
8  MR. BUSTA Feb26 Jan29       (follett norman)BROWN DALTON 125 50.00    
9  EXCALIBRATE Feb11 Jan29 Jan05 Oct20 Oct07 (chichakly amir)RICHARDS G 118 30.00    
10  CENTRAL LOVE Feb11 Nov17 Oct09 Sep22   (rice)HUAYAS (JASON) 111 3.50 50% 1.00    
11  FOURFAITH Jul21         (rodriguez ru)TORRES A 111 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.