Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Saturday - January 14, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (6/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/1)-(6/4/1/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/4/1)-(6/4/1/3/5)-(6/4/1/3/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (6/4/1)-(1/6/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/4/1)-(1/6/5)-(7/2) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-2   WIN (1/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/6/5)-(1/6/5/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/5)-(1/6/5/3/2)-(1/6/5/3/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (1/6/5)-(7/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/6/5)-(7/2)-(5/4/1) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-3   WIN (7/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/2)-(2/7/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/2)-(2/7/1/4)-(2/7/1/4) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (7/2)-(5/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (7/2)-(5/4/1)-(7/2/5) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-4   WIN (5/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/1)-(5/4/1/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/4/1)-(5/4/1/6)-(5/4/1/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/4/1)-(7/2/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/4/1)-(7/2/5)-(3/8) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-5   WIN (7/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/2/5)-(7/2/5/1/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/2/5)-(7/2/5/1/6)-(7/2/5/1/6) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (7/2/5)-(3/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (7/2/5)-(3/8)-(2/7/6/3/1) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
AQU-6   WIN (3/8) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/8)-(3/8/5/9/6) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (3/8)-(3/8/5/9/6)-(3/8/5/9/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/8)-(2/7/6/3/1) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (3/8)-(2/7/6/3/1)-(2/1/3) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
AQU-7   WIN (2/7/6/3/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/7/6/3/1)-(2/7/6/3/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/7/6/3/1)-(2/7/6/3/1)-(2/7/6/3/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/7/6/3/1)-(2/1/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (2/7/6/3/1)-(2/1/3)-(3/5/9/10/4) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
AQU-8   WIN (2/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/3)-(2/1/3/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/1/3)-(2/1/3/4/5)-(2/1/3/4/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (2/1/3)-(3/5/9/10/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
AQU-9   WIN (3/5/9/10/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/5/9/10/4)-(3/5/9/10/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/5/9/10/4)-(3/5/9/10/4)-(3/5/9/10/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   01/14/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($43K) 3 F PT-12:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BERNT AGAIN Nov26 Oct08 Sep15 Aug18 Aug03 (sche)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 5.00 9% 9.60    
2  DASHING DELLA Nov19 Oct30       (rodriguez gusta)DAVIS DYLAN 120 10.00    
3  NEVER PERSONAL Oct28 Aug12       (levine br)VARGAS A 120 2.50 ★    
4  FOLLOW THE FED Dec16 Dec02 Oct23 Sep30   (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 3.50 15% 5.70    
5  FRANKIE KNOWS BEST Dec18 Nov08       (d'alessa)DAVIS A 120 15.00 ★    
6  CARIBBEAN BREEZE Nov04 Sep22       (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 120 1.20 51% 1.00    
 
AQU-2   01/14/2023 5280ft DIRT RC6 GOOD Optional Claiming ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3 ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OUTLAW COUNTRY Dec29 Dec01 Oct28 Sep18   (bake)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 5.00 38% 1.70    
2  MULLINGAR Dec01 Nov06 Sep24 Aug06 Jul23 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 3.00 ★    
3  INSPEIGHTOFTRAINER Dec10 Nov27 Nov06 Sep21 Sep03 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 120 4.00 ★    
SCR  FLASHY ALEX Jan01 Dec04 Nov25 Oct22 Oct07 (persau)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 15.00    
5  PLAYINGWITHMATCHES Dec17 Nov17 Oct27     (hennig mark)CARMOUCHE K 120 2.00 11% 8.50    
6  IT'S VIPER Dec17 Nov20 Nov04 Oct14   (russell britt)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.00 22% 3.60    
 
AQU-3   01/14/2023 4620ft DIRT RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($72K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BUSTIN THE RULES Jan05 Dec10 Nov18 Jul04   (barrera oscar)OLVER MADISON 113 8.00 ★    
SCR  BREAKING STONES Dec29 Nov26 Nov20 Oct18 Sep28 (barrera s)DAVIS KATIE 120 8.00    
2  MAJOR SPIN Jan01 Dec03 Nov13 Oct22 Sep15 (rodriguez rudy )CARMOUCHE K 123 2.50 ★    
2B  JOEY LOOSE LIPS Dec29 Oct16 Sep24 Aug19   (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 2.50 25% 3.00    
SCR  BIG BROWN SHOES Dec13 Nov23 Jun07 May11 Apr24 (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 120 15.00    
4  FORTY TWO ACE Dec09 Nov11 Oct15 Sep18 Aug24 (bake)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 6.00 ★    
SCR  DANGEROUS EDGE Nov11 Oct15 Aug20 Jul28 Jul02 (atras rob)DAVIS DYLAN 120 4.50 ★    
6  ITSALITTLEBITFUNNY Dec11         (chi)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 120 30.00    
7  AWESOME NATIVE Dec15         (abreu r)FRANCO MANUEL 123 1.20 44% 1.30    
 
AQU-4   01/14/2023 5940ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($14K) Purse ($28K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VOLIERO Dec10 Dec01 Nov05 Oct07 Jul22 (per)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 120 8.00 6% 14.50    
2  ALITE Dec11 Nov05 Oct14 Oct02 Sep17 (pringl)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 12.00    
3  HENRYTHETHIRD Dec07 Oct24 Sep12 Aug14 Jul17 (avila ju)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 6.00    
4  DONTBELATE Dec18 Dec01 Oct28 Aug31 Jul15 (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 120 3.00 7% 14.30    
5  REGALITY Jan02 Dec14 Nov22 Nov01 Aug24 (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 123 4.50 24% 3.10    
6  JADE'S DREAM Dec18 Dec10 Nov04 Oct18 Oct06 (jacobson david)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.50 ★    
SCR  JAY'STALKER Dec10 Nov10 Oct02 Aug05   (levine bruce)FRANCO MANUEL 123 2.50 37% 1.70    
 
AQU-5   01/14/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 3 ALL PT- 2:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RIDE UP         (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 8.00 ★    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of WALKWITHAPURPOSE by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
2  POWER IN NUMBERS         (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 120 1.60 30% 2.30    
  (by GIRVIN out of GOLD EDGE by EDDINGTON)
3  MY IMAGINATION Dec17 Nov13 Oct19 Sep21   (morey wil)VARGAS A 120 10.00    
  (by LEA out of LA CONTESSA by CONGRATS)
4  GOLDEN BIRD FOREST Nov19 Nov06 Oct13     (gober)HERNANDEZ OMAR 113 50.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of COLD FOREST by FORESTRY)
5  VENGE Dec16         (ribaudo robert )DAVIS DYLAN 120 2.50 15% 5.90    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of CLASSIC POINT by FLATTER)
6  SWAY'SINMYDNA         (chatte)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 30.00 ★    
  (by CONNECT out of ALONG CAME POLLY by JUDPOT)
7  CLUBHOUSE Dec16 Nov19 Oct16 Sep01 Jul22 (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 120 2.50 35% 1.90    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of WILD RIDGE by TAPIT)
8  MARTY'S MAGIC Oct13 Sep03 Aug13     (de h)GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 15.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of ECHO STORM by THUNDER GULCH)
 
AQU-6   01/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3 F PT- 2:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BUSTINROXY         (sche)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 20.00    
  (by BUSTIN STONES out of ROCKIN EMMZY by TALE OF THE CAT)
2  SPERSS         (bond jam)CANCEL ERIC 120 15.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of SPA DUCHESS by TALE OF THE CAT)
3  WEEKEND RAGS Nov20 Oct30       (abreu r)FRANCO MANUEL 120 1.60 60% 0.70    
  (by STREET BOSS out of WEEKEND by HENNY HUGHES)
4  MY ANGEL         (maker mi)GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 10.00    
  (by WAR DANCER out of TAINTED ANGEL by YES IT'S TRUE)
5  DOWNTOWN MISCHIEF         (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 6.00 ★    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of DOWNTOWN MAMA by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
6  SWEET LIBERTY Dec17 Dec03 Oct06 Sep22 Sep02 (quick pa)DAVIS A 120 8.00 ★    
  (by BELLAMY ROAD out of LIBERTY FUZE by MASS MEDIA)
SCR  KILBRITTAIN'S RED         (gaudet la)VARGAS A 120 8.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of MADDALENA by GOOD AND TOUGH)
8  DEBBIE DARLING         (abreu r)DAVIS DYLAN 120 4.50 18% 4.50    
  (by FROST GIANT out of SUBTLE SWEETNESS by DURING)
9  PINSTRIPEPIZZO         (de horacio)CARMOUCHE K 120 6.00 ★    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of SPICY TEMPER by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
 
AQU-7   01/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 GOOD Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FAST N FEARIOUS Oct30 Oct06 Aug13 Jul14 Jul01 (brow)HUAYAS (JASON) 116 8.00 5% 18.00    
2  BLINDING LIGHT Nov04 Oct06 Sep03 Jul20 Mar26 (englehart jeffr)DAVIS DYLAN 123 2.50 54% 0.90    
3  LIAM'S FIRE Jan01 Dec04 May21 May06 Apr03 (chichakly amira)DAVIS KATIE 120 6.00 6% 15.90    
4  UPPER LEVEL Dec16 Oct20 Sep30 Aug28 Aug03 (lynch na)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 8.00    
5  CLASH A. J. Jan01 Dec03 Nov27 Oct29 Feb24 (jones e)GOMEZ O 123 30.00    
6  IKIGAI Dec01 Oct16 Sep17 Aug25 Jul28 (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 120 3.50 6% 15.10    
7  JAKE ROCKS Dec11 Oct23 Oct02 Aug24 Jun30 (atras rob)LEZCANO JOSE 123 3.00 8% 11.50    
8  LORD GATLING Dec16 Nov12 Oct28 Oct14 Jul28 (pringl)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 8.00    
 
AQU-8   01/14/2023 5940ft DIRT RC11 GOOD nongraded Stake Purse ($100K) 3 F PT- 3:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GAMBLING GIRL Dec03 Oct30 Sep23 Aug24 Jul27 (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 118 3.00 27% 2.70    
  (by DIALED IN out of TULIPMANIA by EMPIRE MAKER)
2  OCCULT Dec18 Sep17       (brown c)DAVIS DYLAN 118 1.40 32% 2.10    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of MAGICAL FEELING by EMPIRE MAKER)
3  AFFIRMATIVE LADY Dec03 Nov04 Oct08     (motion grah)FRANCO MANUEL 118 1.80 18% 4.70    
  (by ARROGATE out of STIFFED by STEPHEN GOT EVEN)
4  SWEETEST PRINCESS Nov18 Oct08 Sep15 Aug03   (weaver george)CANCEL ERIC 118 12.00 ★    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of SWEET CAUSE by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
5  ANISTON Nov25 Sep18       (pletcher todd )LEZCANO JOSE 118 5.00 ★    
  (by CURLIN out of KATERI by DANCE BRIGHTLY)
 
AQU-9   01/14/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($82K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MAURITIUS Dec17 Oct30 Mar27 Mar05   (atras )MARAGH RAMSAY 120 15.00    
2  COMPLETE AGENDA Jan07 Dec09 Nov19 Oct01 Aug18 (rice linda)OLVER MADISON 113 8.00    
3  MONEY SUPPLY Dec18 Oct29 Aug06 Jun19 May07 (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.50 39% 1.60    
4  RISK PROFILE Dec04 Oct07 Aug24 Aug20 Mar11 (giangiuli)VARGAS A 120 15.00 6% 16.60    
5  PATIENT CAPITAL Dec18 Nov26 Oct02 Sep03 Aug05 (maker michael )LEZCANO JOSE 120 2.50 19% 4.30    
SCR  CHOWDA Dec04 May15 Apr20 Mar27 Feb05 (scia)HUAYAS (JASON) 116 30.00    
7  ROYAL TRYST Jan05 Dec18 Dec03 Nov26 Nov12 (arenas marce)LAPRIDA JEREMY 120 15.00    
8  THREE JOKERS Dec18 Oct29 Aug12 Jun11 May15 (terranov)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 12.00    
9  PRINCE OF PHAROAHS Dec08 Nov18 Aug06 Jun26 May14 (kantarmaci mert)CANCEL ERIC 123 10.00 6% 14.70    
10  LITTLE DEMON Dec28 Dec06 Nov05 Oct10 Sep23 (jacobson david)CARMOUCHE K 123 8.00 6% 14.80    
11  WATASHA Dec18 Nov05 Oct09 Mar12   (mott i)DAVIS DYLAN 120 5.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.