Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Sunday - January 01, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (3) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (3)-(3/6/4/5) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    TRI (3)-(3/6/4/5)-(3/6/4/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3)-(4/2/6/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (3)-(4/2/6/5)-(2/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
AQU-2   WIN (4/2/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/2/6/5)-(4/2/6/5/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/2/6/5)-(4/2/6/5/1)-(4/2/6/5/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (4/2/6/5)-(2/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/2/6/5)-(2/1)-(7/3/6) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-3   WIN (2/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/1)-(2/1/5/3/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (2/1)-(2/1/5/3/4)-(2/1/5/3/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/1)-(7/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/1)-(7/3/6)-(2/3/4) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-4   WIN (7/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/3/6)-(7/3/6/4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/3/6)-(7/3/6/4/2)-(7/3/6/4/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (7/3/6)-(2/3/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (7/3/6)-(2/3/4)-(4/2/3) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-5   WIN (2/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/4)-(2/3/4/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/3/4)-(2/3/4/1)-(2/3/4/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/3/4)-(4/2/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/3/4)-(4/2/3)-(3/1/5/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-6   WIN (4/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/3)-(4/2/3/1/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/2/3)-(4/2/3/1/6)-(4/2/3/1/6) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (4/2/3)-(3/1/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/2/3)-(3/1/5/7)-(6/1/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-7   WIN (3/1/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/5/7)-(3/1/5/7/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/1/5/7)-(3/1/5/7/8)-(3/1/5/7/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/1/5/7)-(6/1/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/1/5/7)-(6/1/2)-(9/3/1/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-8   WIN (6/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/2)-(6/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/2)-(6/1/2)-(6/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/1/2)-(9/3/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
AQU-9   WIN (9/3/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/3/1/5)-(9/3/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/3/1/5)-(9/3/1/5)-(9/3/1/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   01/01/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($43K) 4UP ALL PT-12:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IGOTTAHAVEIT May28 May06 Feb21     (dunham g)OLVER MADISON 112 20.00    
SCR  ITSALITTLEBITFUNNY Dec11         (chin p)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 1.50 53% 0.90    
3  STEERAGE Dec03 Nov11 Oct07 Aug27 Jul31 (brown r)DAVIS DYLAN 122 3.00 21% 3.70    
4  CLASH A. J. Dec03 Nov27 Oct29 Feb24 Feb13 (jones e)GOMEZ O 122 8.00 ★    
5  QUACKENBUSH Dec03         (henn)HUAYAS (JASON) 115 5.00 ★    
6  SILENT RUNNING Nov20 Sep24 Aug17 Jun30 Apr22 (bond harold )HARKIE K 122 2.50 ★    
 
AQU-2   01/01/2023 3960ft DIRT RC6 MUDDY Optional Claiming ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3 ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COLOR COMMISH Dec11 Nov16 Nov02 Oct25   (sells ra)DAVIS A 120 12.00 ★    
2  SWIFTY DEVIL Dec11 Nov19 Oct29 Oct20 Sep15 (gorham michael )CANCEL ERIC 120 3.00 27% 2.80    
3  GOING IN STYLE Dec04 Oct28 Sep18 Aug22   (camejo m)DAVIS DYLAN 120 6.00    
4  BOBBY THE TANK Dec04 Nov27 Oct16 Sep04 Jul29 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 5.00 27% 2.70    
5  LARZ Dec02         (jacobson davi)FRANCO MANUEL 120 4.00 12% 7.30    
6  JOEY FRESHWATER Nov27 Nov06       (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 120 1.80 13% 6.80    
7  FLASHY ALEX Dec04 Nov25 Oct22 Oct07 Sep18 (persaud randi)CASTILLO AMIN 120 15.00    
 
AQU-3   01/01/2023 5940ft DIRT RC11 MUDDY nongraded Stake Purse ($150K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SWEET WILLEMINA Nov23 Oct27 Oct03 Sep01 Aug14 (lake a)FRANCO MANUEL 118 4.50 16% 5.10    
  (by RAISON D'ETAT out of WILLIAMS BAY by KITTEN'S JOY)
2  BATTLE BLING Dec03 Nov04 Oct01 Sep06 Jul09 (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 124 1.60 46% 1.20    
  (by VANCOUVER (GB) out of SOLEIL ROUGE by E DUBAI)
3  TONAL VISION Dec03 Oct26 Jul09 Jun06 May11 (guerrero c)LAPRIDA JEREMY 120 6.00 ★    
  (by TONALIST out of APRIL CLOSING by DEFRERE)
4  EXOTIC WEST Dec03 Nov04 Aug19 Jul24 May20 (sciacca gary)DAVIS DYLAN 122 8.00 ★    
  (by HARD SPUN out of MISS PERSONALITY by EL PRADO (IRE))
5  FALCONET Nov25 Sep24 Jul09 Jun03 Apr21 (pletcher todd )LEZCANO JOSE 118 1.40 ★    
  (by UNCLE MO out of BIRDATTHEWIRE by SUMMER BIRD)
 
AQU-4   01/01/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($40K) Purse ($60K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROB THE RICH Dec14 Nov29 Nov08 Oct17 Aug24 (guerrero c)LAPRIDA JEREMY 123 6.00    
2  JALEN JOURNEY Dec09 Nov17 Oct29 Oct08 Oct03 (cash l)ACOSTA D 123 8.00 ★    
3  JEMOGRAPHY Dec02 Oct15 Sep17 Aug05 Jul10 (englehart chri)LEZCANO JOSE 120 3.00 28% 2.60    
4  GLORY ROAD May27 Apr30 Mar27 Mar05   (noda orlando)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.50 ★    
5  PRISONER Dec17 Sep17 Jul23 Jun10 Mar18 (baker charlton)CARMOUCHE K 120 4.50    
6  REED KAN Oct27 Sep06 Aug23 Jul27 Jun30 (kantarmaci m)HARKIE K 120 15.00 10% 8.90    
7  LAFITTE'S FLEET Dec04 Nov05 Sep25 Aug14 May27 (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.50 35% 1.80    
 
AQU-5   01/01/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($25K) Purse ($50K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAERUS Nov25 Nov08 Oct06 Aug27 Aug07 (lucas bo)DAVIS A 123 5.00 ★    
2  O'TROUBLE Dec08 Oct08 Aug17 Jul17 Jul04 (arriaga )GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 3.00 15% 5.60    
3  BALLYDOOLEY (GB) Oct27 Sep30 Aug31 Jul04   (nevin )MARAGH RAMSAY 123 4.50 9% 9.70    
4  BRONX BOMBER Dec02 Nov17 Oct21 Sep17 Sep01 (dela)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MI TRES POR CIENTO (CHI) Oct17 Sep20 Aug19 Jun19 May29 (englehart jeffr)DAVIS DYLAN 123 2.50 47% 1.10    
6  STRIKING SPEED Oct07 Sep25 Sep16 Aug20 Jul01 (jones eduardo)PANAIJO JORGE 120 6.00    
7  CARIBBEAN (AUS) Dec04 Oct21 Sep30 Sep09 Aug19 (barrera oscar)OLVER MADISON 113 8.00    
8  CASH NOW Dec03 Nov25 Oct27 Oct08 Sep05 (skelton dawn)HARKIE K 123 15.00    
 
AQU-6   01/01/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($32K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAIAROSSA Sep04 Aug05       (bond j)OLVER MADISON 112 10.00    
1A  FULIGNI Dec08 Nov12 Sep03 Aug03 Jun12 (bond harold )HARKIE K 122 10.00 ★    
2  MOSTLY HARMLESS Dec08 Nov25 Oct21 Sep22 Sep05 (martin c)GOMEZ ANTONIO 117 2.50 21% 3.80    
3  GRACEFULLY WILD Dec08 Nov12 Oct13 Jun17 Apr28 (bark)HUAYAS (JASON) 115 8.00 17% 4.80    
4  AFILADA Nov21 Sep22 Aug06 Jun23 May13 (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 122 3.00 36% 1.80    
5  LORDHEARMYPRAYER Dec15 Nov25 Oct13 Aug21 Aug06 (barrera osca)LAPRIDA JEREMY 122 6.00    
6  RICELLE Dec15 Nov25 Oct21 Aug21 Jul28 (leg)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 122 3.50 ★    
SCR  MADAME ROSE Dec08 Oct13 Sep04 Aug06 Jul29 (jones eduardo)PANAIJO JORGE 122 15.00    
8  BOXED IN AND BORED Dec08 Nov22 Nov09 Oct24 Sep26 (englehar)DAVIS A 122 12.00    
 
AQU-7   01/01/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 MUDDY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TENEBRIS Dec03 Sep18 Aug13 Jun25 Jun03 (tessore bruno)LEZCANO JOSE 123 6.00 23% 3.30    
2  BUILT TO LAST (BRZ) Dec03 Aug24 Jul30 Jun10 May21 (morley thomas)FRANCO MANUEL 123 4.00    
3  COUSIN ANDREW Dec16 Dec01 Aug10 Jul28 Jun25 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 123 3.00 37% 1.70    
4  HOLEY MATRIMONY Dec16 Nov26 Nov04 Oct15   (barrera osca)LAPRIDA JEREMY 123 12.00    
5  MAJOR SPIN Dec03 Nov13 Oct22 Sep15 Aug10 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 3.50 14% 6.10    
SCR  BLINDING LIGHT Nov04 Oct06 Sep03 Jul20 Mar26 (englehart jeffr)DAVIS DYLAN 123 4.50    
7  GASLIGHT Dec03 Nov18 Aug27 Aug13 Jul01 (quick patric)HARKIE K 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  WHAT A DUDE Dec03 Nov20 Nov06 Sep10 Jul24 (jaco)HUAYAS (JASON) 116 15.00 ★    
9  LIAM'S FIRE Dec04 May21 May06 Apr03 Feb25 (chichakly amira)DAVIS KATIE 120 20.00    
 
AQU-8   01/01/2023 4620ft DIRT RC3 MUDDY Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($88K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AMUNDSON Dec09 Nov12 Oct21 Sep03 Jul30 (rice linda)DAVIS DYLAN 123 1.80    
1A  KINETIC SKY Nov06 Oct14 Sep24 Aug10   (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 120 1.80 23% 3.30    
2  CHESTERTOWN May22 Mar20 Feb03 Jan08   (asmussen steve)LEZCANO JOSE 118 3.00 15% 5.90    
3  MILTON THE MONSTER Dec03 Oct24 Sep24 Aug14 Jun04 (morley thomas)FRANCO MANUEL 120 8.00    
SCR  MONDAY MORNING QB Dec17 Dec03 Nov25 Nov07 Oct22 (cash l)ACOSTA D 120 12.00 7% 12.50    
SCR  WENDELL FONG Nov21 Oct24 Sep10 Jul20 Jun04 (lynch nat)VARGAS A 120 5.00 ★    
6  STAGE LEFT Nov25 Nov12 Sep30 Aug18 Jul23 (kantarmaci mert)CANCEL ERIC 123 2.50 29% 2.40    
 
AQU-9   01/01/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LUCKY BRODY Dec09 Nov10 Sep17 Sep01 Jul27 (noda o)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 12.00 7% 13.10    
2  ASTRAL WEEKS Dec09 Oct28 Aug20 Jul31 Jul03 (walder p)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 15.00    
3  CASH IN A FLASH Nov19 Oct08 Aug07 Jul21 Jun10 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 120 5.00 8% 11.30    
SCR  ABUNDANT HONOR Nov19 Oct21 Sep30 Aug28 Jan05 (morley thomas)DAVIS DYLAN 123 3.00 19% 4.40    
5  MISBEHAVED Nov30 Nov14 Oct17 Oct02 Aug27 (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 123 15.00 7% 13.30    
6  GIRAMONTE Nov26 Nov05 Oct06 Sep04 Aug13 (gyarmati leah)LUZZI J 120 20.00    
7  GHOSTLYPRINCE Dec15 Dec02 Sep22 Aug14 Jun25 (tess)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 6.00    
8  PRINCE OF JOY Dec18 Nov19 Oct14 Sep17 Aug03 (legall r)DAVIS A 120 30.00    
9  MAILMAN'S A FLYER Dec18 Dec09 Dec04 Nov20 Nov02 (cash l)ACOSTA D 123 4.00 33% 2.00    
10  B C GLORY DAYS Dec09 Nov11 Oct14 Sep17 Sep01 (barrera oscar)OLVER MADISON 110 8.00    
11  BOURBON'S HOPE Dec09 Nov10 Sep16 Aug15 Jul19 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.