Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - May 16, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/8/1/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/8/1/7)-(2/8/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/8/1/7)-(2/8/1/7)-(2/8/1/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/8/1/7)-(3/6/4/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/8/1/7)-(3/6/4/5)-(1/7/2/4) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-2   WIN (3/6/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/4/5)-(3/6/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/6/4/5)-(3/6/4/5)-(3/6/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/6/4/5)-(1/7/2/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/6/4/5)-(1/7/2/4)-(1/7/9/3) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-3   WIN (1/7/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/7/2/4)-(1/7/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/2/4)-(1/7/2/4)-(1/7/2/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/7/2/4)-(1/7/9/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/7/2/4)-(1/7/9/3)-(7/5/10/6) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-4   WIN (1/7/9/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/7/9/3)-(1/7/9/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/9/3)-(1/7/9/3)-(1/7/9/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/7/9/3)-(7/5/10/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/7/9/3)-(7/5/10/6)-(1/3/2/5) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-5   WIN (7/5/10/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/5/10/6)-(7/5/10/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/5/10/6)-(7/5/10/6)-(7/5/10/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/5/10/6)-(1/3/2/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/5/10/6)-(1/3/2/5)-(3/5/2/6) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-6   WIN (1/3/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/2/5)-(1/3/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/2/5)-(1/3/2/5)-(1/3/2/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/3/2/5)-(3/5/2/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/3/2/5)-(3/5/2/6)-(5/2/10/11/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-7   WIN (3/5/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/5/2/6)-(3/5/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/5/2/6)-(3/5/2/6)-(3/5/2/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/5/2/6)-(5/2/10/11/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/5/2/6)-(5/2/10/11/3)-(4/2/5/7/6) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-8   WIN (5/2/10/11/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/2/10/11/3)-(5/2/10/11/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/2/10/11/3)-(5/2/10/11/3)-(5/2/10/11/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/2/10/11/3)-(4/2/5/7/6) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
CD-9   WIN (4/2/5/7/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/2/5/7/6)-(4/2/5/7/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/2/5/7/6)-(4/2/5/7/6)-(4/2/5/7/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/16/2025 4620ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($67K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EXPLOSIVE WHISPER         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  ROCKAWAY REEF Apr09 Mar21 Feb21 Feb05 Jul27 (miller kenny)ROMAN A 124 3.50 39% 1.50    
3  MOTOWN HONEY Apr07         (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 4.00    
4  SWIFT KELCE Apr18         (moger jr)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
5  THEPRINCESSFACTOR         (sharp joe)TORRES A 118 6.00    
6  DANCING EYES Mar22 Feb24       (schultz lindsa)CEDILLO ABEL 118 5.00    
7  EMPLOYEEOFTHEMONTH         (summers chad)MONCADA IRVING 113 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  SCYTHIA Apr25         (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00 33% 2.00    
 
CD-2   05/16/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($30K) Purse ($63K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADAN Nov14 Oct08 Sep20 Aug10 Jul22 (bogle fergus)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 5.00    
2  FOURFIFTYSEVEN Mar12 Feb07 Jan15 Dec14 Nov05 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 124 2.50    
3  QUEEN OF SALSA Feb28 Feb02 Oct25 Oct05 Sep21 (shorter aaro)TORRES A 124 4.50 35% 1.90    
4  ASIAN MATRIARCH Jan26 Jan01 Nov29 Oct26 Aug24 (moger jr)BEJARANO R 124 6.00 16% 5.20    
5  CURLS NITE OUT Mar27 Feb16 Jan24 Jan03 Dec06 (block chri)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  I HAD THAT ONE TOO Apr18 Mar15 Dec22 Nov14 Oct13 (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 124 3.50 22% 3.50    
7  TAVRIA Apr25 Mar12 Feb07 Jan03 Dec06 (morey william)GARCIA MARTIN 120 5.00    
 
CD-3   05/16/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($25K) Purse ($64K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FAVORITE OUTLAW May01 Mar29 Feb24 Feb03 Jan05 (hartman chris)CURTIS BEN 118 1.80 62% 0.60    
2  REFUAH May01 Apr12 Mar15 Feb17 Jan18 (sweezey kent)MACHADO LUAN 118 4.50 5% 18.00    
3  EASTSIDE COOL Apr11 Mar08 Feb08 Jan24 Dec22 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
4  MIACOMET Mar08 Jan31 Oct16 Sep22 Aug25 (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  OUTLIER Apr24 Dec27 Nov28 Nov03 Sep27 (hiles rick)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 4.00    
6  DAZZLEMESILVER Mar21 Feb28 Feb08 Jan04 Dec06 (shirer ma)TORRES A 118 15.00    
7  SANTOS DUMONT Apr24 Apr06 Jun29 May18 Mar02 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 2.50 7% 13.20    
 
CD-4   05/16/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($45K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOUTHERN SUNSET Apr26 Apr11 Mar22 May31 May05 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 118 4.00 29% 2.50    
2  W W CRAZY Apr24 Feb24 Jan24 Dec14 Dec01 (calhoun willia)CEDILLO ABEL 118 8.00    
3  IMPROBABLE STORY Apr26 Apr16 Mar13 Feb07 Jan24 (king l)GARCIA MARTIN 118 12.00 8% 11.70    
SCR  SYNTHESIS Apr04 Mar08 Jan23 Jan04 Aug18 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 118 3.00    
5  TWIRLING TROILLET Apr29 Feb15 Jan24 Jan03 Nov29 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00    
6  PAYNTER'S CANVAS Apr29 Mar23 Jan25 Jan05 Dec13 (lauer michael)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
7  READY TO ROLL (IRE) Mar13 Feb07 Jan24 Dec13 Sep21 (van berg )BEALMEAR C 113 12.00 16% 5.30    
8  SANT' ANTIMO Mar29 Mar12 Feb26 Feb01 Jan15 (esquivel jesus)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 3.50    
9  LIAM THE BRAVE Apr19 Mar22 Jan29 Dec13 Nov27 (esquivel gu)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 10.00 12% 7.70    
 
CD-5   05/16/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($16K) Purse ($36K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HIGH ENOUGH Apr24 Mar01 Jan25 Nov23 Nov10 (habeeb donald)MORALES EDGAR 124 8.00    
SCR  RIGHT SPOT Mar16 Jan09 Nov30 Oct04   (scherer maria)GARCIA MARTIN 118 20.00    
3  STRADIVARIAN Apr10 Mar18 Jan26 Dec15 Nov17 (forster gr)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 8.00    
4  DANCING NOAH Apr29 Mar06 Feb23 Jan31 Jan04 (taylor brent)BEJARANO R 124 20.00    
5  WICKED MELODY Apr27 Apr12 Mar16 Jan05 Nov23 (santamaria car)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 4.00 19% 4.20    
6  FLICKER (GB) Mar05 Jan25 Dec04 Oct20 Oct05 (beckman whitwo)CURTIS BEN 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
7  LOVE PACK Feb22 Jan10 Oct06 Aug24   (diodoro r)TORRES A 118 5.00 43% 1.30    
8  KEENO Mar14 Feb14 Jan24 Dec13 Nov25 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 6.00    
SCR  STORMIN LOVE Apr07 Feb08 Dec28 Nov06 Sep28 (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 124 3.00    
10  FARLEY HALL Apr06 Mar14 Feb17 Jan26 Dec29 (miller peter)CEDILLO ABEL 118 4.50 13% 6.50    
 
CD-6   05/16/2025 4290ft DIRT RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($175K) Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROLL ON BIG JOE Apr13 Feb15 Jan03 Dec01 Oct27 (hess b)LEPAROUX R 125 3.00 28% 2.60    
2  TOP GUNNER Apr13 Mar01 Jan16 Dec28 Nov29 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 123 2.00 20% 3.90    
3  TEJANO TWIST May03 Apr12 Mar15 Jan25 Dec20 (hartman chri)LANDEROS CHRIS 125 1.80 24% 3.20    
4  DURANTE May02 Mar29 Feb14 Dec07 Nov24 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 121 15.00    
5  CARAMEL CHIP May01 Apr08 Mar01 Feb08 Jan12 (david car)TORRES A 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  GOLD LUCK Feb24 Jan23 Nov17 Nov02 Sep22 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 15.00    
7  OTTO THE CONQUEROR Apr13 Aug24 Jun30 Jun05 May04 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 6.00    
 
CD-7   05/16/2025 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($83K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COMMITTEE OF ONE Apr30 Mar07 Jan03 Dec20 Nov08 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 123 5.00    
2  NORTHERN CHILL Apr26 Mar21 Mar07 Feb16 Dec14 (shirer ma)TORRES A 123 5.00 16% 5.10    
3  TURN UP THE TREES May06 Dec27 Dec06 Nov22 Oct14 (jacobson dav)BESCHIZZA ADAM 125 2.00 41% 1.50    
4  UNCLE WILLIAM Apr17 Mar22 Dec20 Nov08 Oct19 (guida e)LANERIE J 123 15.00    
5  PROTEGE Apr09 Feb22 Jan19 Nov27 Oct31 (wilensky sam)CURTIS BEN 123 8.00 17% 4.80    
6  MORUNNING Jan19 Jan04 Nov24 Oct10 Sep15 (davis chri)HERNANDEZ J 123 15.00 5% 17.50    
7  EXPRESS LINE (FR) Apr18 Jun08 Jan15 Dec03 Jul23 (forster gr)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 20.00    
SCR  BACKTRACK Apr17 Mar27       (sharp joe)DETTORI LANFRANCO 120 2.50    
9  BAYTOWN BRUISER May01 Apr10 May31 May09 Feb02 (king l)GARCIA MARTIN 123 20.00    
 
CD-8   05/16/2025 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ELEGANT TRIP Nov28 Oct18 Aug31 Jul28 Dec16 (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 123 10.00    
2  TROUBLESHOOTING Apr10 Nov23 Nov01 Sep26   (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 120 3.00 25% 3.10    
3  TOWN BARBER Mar27 Jan18 Dec06 Dec02 Oct25 (mott rile)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  AFTER TAXES (IRE) Apr12 Feb22 Jan04 Nov15 Jul19 (ward wesl)DETTORI LANFRANCO 118 8.00    
5  GO CAPTAIN Mar07 Jan23 Dec21 Oct11 Aug31 (briley lonnie)LANERIE J 123 3.50 26% 2.90    
6  MOON SNIPER Apr17 Mar14 Oct06 Sep25 Sep04 (miller darri)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 30.00    
7  ALEXIS ZORBA (GB) Apr17 Mar23 Sep27 Sep01 Jul06 (maker michael )MACHADO LUAN 123 8.00    
8  STASHU Mar27 Nov08 Oct17 Sep11 Aug24 (wainwright joh)CEDILLO ABEL 118 30.00    
9  THE WARDEN Apr11 Feb24 Feb02 Jan04 Dec01 (moquett r)LEPAROUX R 118 30.00    
10  HIT THAT REVIEW (IRE) Mar29 Jan01 Nov29 Oct19 Sep20 (walsh p)CURTIS BEN 118 4.50 17% 5.00    
11  ZARTOWNIS Aug23 Jul11 Jun16 Mar28 Feb09 (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 123 15.00 10% 9.10    
SCR  ROWDY RIOT Apr18 Mar07 Jan23 Dec21 Oct31 (morse l)BEJARANO R 123 5.00    
SCR  MISCHIEF RIVER Apr24 Oct05 Sep08 Aug11 Jun29 (caramori caio)CURTIS BEN 118 8.00    
14  SIDE EYE Aug31 Aug01 Jul06 May03 Mar02 (maker mic)DETTORI LANFRANCO 123 8.00    
 
CD-9   05/16/2025 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($62K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PENEI May08 Sep22 Aug24 Aug17   (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 20.00    
2  DEVELOPMENT FEE Apr08 Feb15       (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 2.50 15% 5.50    
3  TROJAN PRIDE Apr27 Apr06       (vance d)ELLIOTT JANE 118 20.00    
4  SEVEN TAYLORS Mar28 Mar09 Dec21 Nov10 Oct10 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 125 3.50 54% 0.90    
5  PERSONAL JET Apr19 Mar29 Feb08 Jan18   (pomier ch)LEPAROUX R 118 6.00 6% 15.20    
6  HELM PLACE Apr11 Feb15       (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  ARTICLE         (catalano wayn)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  OLD TRACE Apr30 Mar27       (warpool shane)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00    
9  TOM CAT TUESDAY Apr06 Feb14 Jan17 Dec13 Oct26 (von donn)CEDILLO ABEL 118 6.00    
10  COLONEL CALIENTE Feb12 Dec28 Nov27     (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00    
11  STORMY PASSAGE Apr25 Jul14       (kenneally eddie)CURTIS BEN 125 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.