Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Belterra Park
Saturday - October 07, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

BTP-1   WIN (6/9/10/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/9/10/4)-(6/9/10/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/9/10/4)-(6/9/10/4)-(6/9/10/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/9/10/4)-(7/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/9/10/4)-(7/4/5)-(8/2/3/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
BTP-2   WIN (7/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/5)-(7/4/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/4/5)-(7/4/5)-(7/4/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (7/4/5)-(8/2/3/1)-(10/1/5/2/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
BTP-3   WIN (8/2/3/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/2/3/1)-(8/2/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/2/3/1)-(8/2/3/1)-(8/2/3/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/2/3/1)-(10/1/5/2/9)-(7/3/2/4) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
BTP-4   WIN (10/1/5/2/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/1/5/2/9)-(10/1/5/2/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/1/5/2/9)-(10/1/5/2/9)-(10/1/5/2/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    PK3 (10/1/5/2/9)-(7/3/2/4)-(1/8/10/7/4) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
BTP-5   WIN (7/3/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/2/4)-(7/3/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/3/2/4)-(7/3/2/4)-(7/3/2/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/3/2/4)-(1/8/10/7/4)-(5/7/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
BTP-6   WIN (1/8/10/7/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/8/10/7/4)-(1/8/10/7/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/8/10/7/4)-(1/8/10/7/4)-(1/8/10/7/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    PK3 (1/8/10/7/4)-(5/7/3)-(10/3/4/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
BTP-7   WIN (5/7/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/7/3)-(5/7/2/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/7/3)-(5/7/2/3)-(5/7/2/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/7/3)-(10/3/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/7/3)-(10/3/4/1)-(4/1/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
BTP-8   WIN (10/3/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/3/4/1)-(10/3/4/12/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/3/4/1)-(10/3/4/12/1)-(10/3/4/12/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
BTP-9   WIN (4/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/2)-(4/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/2)-(4/1/2)-(4/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
BTP-1   10/07/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($16.2K) 3UP M/F PT-12:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
KATNAPPING Sep16         (aguirre juan)MARCANO Y 119 12.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of DREAM PROSPECT by MINESHAFT)
SCR  JUNOESQUE Sep03         (ward wesley )CRUZ JUAN 121 4.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of TRUE COLORS by QUALITY ROAD)
RUE Sep22 Aug29       (drury jr)MCKEE J 121 20.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of SPELLBOUND by LYPHARD'S WISH (FR))
LA CREMA Sep08 Aug01 Jun27 May16 Sep14 (arnold george)GILLIGAN JACK 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of ISABEL'S ON IT by DUBAWI)
AADYA Sep16 Aug16 Jul29     (estvanko)MARTINEZ LUIS 124 8.00    
  (by PROTONICO out of ROCKHARD LADY by ROCK HARD TEN)
STAY LOST Jun24 May13 Apr19 Nov26 Oct16 (corrigan jim)LEZCANO ABEL 121 3.50 37% 1.70    
  (by BERNARDINI out of DARCI'S DREAM by DARCI BRAHMA)
SCR  NOELANI Sep02 Jul12 Jun01     (lobo h)JIMENEZ ALBIN 121 5.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of ELEMENTAR by MORE THAN READY)
SUN VALLEY ROAD Sep26 Aug01 Oct30     (cox h)PETERSON FERRIN 121 2.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of GRAND TRAVERSE BAY by REPRICED)
OUR FLAG FLYING Sep01 Aug16 Jul26 Mar30 Mar10 (vaughan edwar)LEBRON VICTOR 121 6.00 27% 2.70    
  (by UNION RAGS out of GHOSTLY WIN by GHOSTZAPPER)
10  QUEEN OF ATLANTIS Sep22 Aug11 Jun30 Jun07 Jul19 (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 121 15.00 9% 9.80    
  (by ADVERTISE out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
 
BTP-2   10/07/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($9K) 3UP ALL PT-12:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HECTOR B Sep27 Sep15 Sep06 Aug19 Aug03 (ramos rafael)PANAIJO JORGE 123 3.50    
1A  LIDIA'S PRAYER Sep28 Sep16 Aug31 Aug05 Jun16 (ramos rafael)PANAIJO JORGE 122 3.50    
SCR  SHERLOCKED Sep27 Sep09 Feb22 Feb09 Jan26 (sturgeon c)MCKEE J 123 4.50    
ONE SOCK BILLY Sep29 Sep03 Aug19 Jul29 Jul15 (adams l)HESS SARA 115 15.00    
KOBE BEACH Sep27 Sep06 Jul27 Jul14 Jun03 (rodriquez r)JIMENEZ J 123 10.00 10% 9.50    
CHEESEBURGER Sep27         (chain pearl)BUSH V 123 30.00 5% 19.00    
PASION AZTECA Sep27 Sep06 Aug09 Jul27 Jul13 (morelos mateo)CANUTO THIAGO 123 30.00    
HESTON Sep27 May26 May04 Mar30 Mar04 (engler jeff)JIMENEZ ALBIN 123 2.50 61% 0.60    
SCR  FAST ROY Sep15 Sep02 Aug09 Jul27 Jul13 (short thomas)OUZTS W 123 4.00    
 
BTP-3   10/07/2023 5610ft TURF RC6 FIRM Optional Claiming ($16K) Purse ($14.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
AVIANO Sep15 Sep03 Aug20 Jul23 May14 (meraz antonio)REYES FRANK 120 20.00 10% 9.20    
BLUEGRASS PARKWAY Sep13 Feb04 Jan07 Dec09 Nov24 (anderson susa)LEBRON VICTOR 120 2.50 25% 3.00    
CLEAR FOR ACTION Sep07 May27 Mar15 Mar04 Dec03 (fletcher we)LAGUNES GABRIEL 120 8.00 11% 7.70    
BAKENEKO Aug30 Jul16 Jun25 Jun11 May21 (rodriguez hugo)COLON H 120 15.00    
SUBURBAN PRINCE Sep02 Jul21 Jul06 Jun07 May13 (o'neill doug)OUZTS W 117 5.00    
SILENT CHAOS Sep20 Aug29 Aug01 Jul08 Jun23 (grubbs jamie )JIMENEZ ALBIN 120 8.00    
SCR  LITTLE G T Aug24 Jul20 Nov22 Oct25 Sep27 (foley greg)MCKEE J 120 4.50    
WIND TWIST Apr19 Mar15 Feb01 Dec15 Sep22 (sandy stephen)CANUTO THIAGO 120 3.50 33% 2.00    
BEOCCA Sep13 Jul07 Jun15 May25 Apr13 (castanon jos)TERRAZA GERMAN 117 12.00    
SCR  RAISON KARTER Sep20 Sep13 Aug16 Jul29 Jul14 (estvanko)MARTINEZ LUIS 122 3.00    
 
BTP-4   10/07/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($12.2K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TWIRLING RUTH Sep22 Sep09 Aug29 Aug12 Jul21 (thomas mark)MCKEE J 125 3.50 15% 5.90    
ROYAL TO BE Jul12 Jun24 Jun14 May24 May11 (skeens jerem)MARCANO Y 117 10.00 9% 10.20    
POQUITO ROSE Aug12 Jul12 Jul05 Jun07 May24 (estvanko)MARTINEZ LUIS 122 10.00    
TIMELESS GLORY Sep18 Aug31 Aug10 Jul12 Jun25 (rosas rigo)REYES FRANK 122 6.00    
ROLLESTON Aug29 Aug02 Jul08 May19 May04 (smith larry)OUZTS W 122 2.50 13% 6.90    
SCR  WHISKEY SIS Sep09 Aug11 Aug01 Jul15 Jun30 (nocero carmi)TERRAZA GERMAN 117 10.00    
HIGH MEADOWS Sep28 Sep14 Aug26 Aug12 Aug03 (morelos mat)LAGUNES GABRIEL 125 12.00    
EIDA'S STORM Sep28 Sep14 Aug26 Aug10 Jul21 (aguirre j)CORREA L 122 15.00    
GENERAL GINNY Sep23 Sep14 Aug26 Aug15 Jul21 (dillion jimmy)PANAIJO JORGE 125 6.00 5% 17.50    
10  MY TOMMY LEE Sep30 Sep08 Aug29 Aug03 Mar11 (sands shane)LEBRON VICTOR 125 4.50 37% 1.70    
11  JOYFUL NOISE Sep22 Jul17 Jul04 Jun12 May13 (cline robert )CANUTO THIAGO 122 20.00    
12  MISS SOVELIA Sep29 Jun14 May31 May19 Apr26 (quezada ino)JIMENEZ J 122 20.00    
 
BTP-5   10/07/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($9K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  TATTERED HEART Sep26 Aug11 Jul18 Jul03 May04 (helmbrecht wi)JIMENEZ ALBIN 117 8.00    
VILLAREGGIA Sep21 Aug19 Aug02 Jul12 Jun24 (ginter j)AVILES YAN 120 3.50 6% 14.90    
TRIBAL SPIRIT Aug11 Jul18 May31 May18 May05 (helmbrecht w)TERRAZA GERMAN 112 4.50 8% 12.30    
SOULSTONE Sep23 Sep07 Aug15 Aug04 Jul19 (salcedo ram)LAGUNES GABRIEL 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SILVER SEA Sep24 Sep02 Aug26 Mar09 Feb15 (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 120 8.00    
ZUPITA Sep27 Aug22 Aug10 Jul03 May29 (esquivel jesu)PANAIJO JORGE 117 5.00    
FOR THE BISCUIT Sep19 Aug31 Aug03 Jun29 Jun21 (hern)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 117 2.50 59% 0.70    
MARKET OF STOCKS Sep20 Sep08 Aug29 Aug10 Jul26 (rodak geraldi)LEBRON VICTOR 120 15.00    
C C'S WORLD Sep20 Sep08 Aug24 Aug09 Jul20 (melancon pau)MARCANO Y 115 10.00    
10  DR. BELLA Sep04 Jul20 Jul03 Mar25 Mar10 (grani)ULLOA PATRICIO 117 6.00    
11  SPICY SOMMELIER Sep27 Aug29 Dec10 Nov25 Nov07 (esquivel jesus)BUSH V 120 15.00    
SCR  MOON PARTY Sep28 Sep13 Aug12 Aug03 Jul05 (haehn terry)JIMENEZ J 120 20.00    
SCR  NIFF Aug24 Aug10 Jul30 Jun11 May25 (witthauer john )REYES FRANK 120 20.00    
 
BTP-6   10/07/2023 5610ft TURF RC6 FIRM Optional Claiming ($15K) Purse ($17.7K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
COMMANDERS PALACE Sep21 Sep07 Aug19 Feb16 Feb02 (alessi james)LEBRON VICTOR 120 8.00 27% 2.70    
HONEYBELL Sep27 Sep02 Aug22 Aug10 Jul26 (donjuan sergi)CANUTO THIAGO 117 20.00    
BACKYARD HEN Sep27 Aug05 Jul08 Jun10 Mar24 (shifflet)STRANDBERG MALLORY 120 10.00    
MIZZEN ASH Sep03 Aug23 Jul27 Jun21 Jun06 (granitz j)FELIX E 120 12.00 9% 9.90    
WOODS HOLE Aug25 Aug04 Jul22 Jun01 May06 (chain pearl)BUSH V 120 15.00    
TAPERINEA Oct03 Sep03 Aug19 Jul27 Jun21 (meraz antonio)COLON H 120 12.00    
MISS GOODBAR Sep27 Sep07 Aug15 Jul26 Jul06 (davis joseph)TERRAZA GERMAN 112 6.00 11% 7.80    
RENAISSANCE (IRE) Sep23 Aug19 Aug01 Jul07 Apr01 (danner do)CORREA L 122 4.50 16% 5.40    
SILKY WARRIOR (IRE) Sep10 Jul14 Jun21 May12 Mar19 (hiles a)MCKEE J 120 2.50    
10  KICK OUT THE JAMS Aug18 Aug05 Jul15 Jun10 May19 (estvanko)MARTINEZ LUIS 120 3.50 13% 6.70    
11  TAMI ANN Sep20 Aug15 Aug02 Jun30 May26 (barrett grant)PANAIJO JORGE 120 5.00    
 
BTP-7   10/07/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($9K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MAXIMUM JOY Sep21 Sep07 Aug18 Jun22 Jun10 (wilson jr)BUSH V 122 15.00    
OPTIMIZME Sep21 Sep04 Aug11 Aug01 Jun16 (alvarez nery)CRUZ JUAN 119 2.50    
ABIGAIL G Sep23 Sep07 Aug18 Aug04 Jul20 (rodak geraldi)LEBRON VICTOR 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
DEESSE Sep15 May05 Apr28 Apr15 Mar15 (dominguez )SANCHEZ LEXANDER 122 10.00    
GET CLEAR Sep15 Sep08 Aug18 Aug04 Aug18 (sands sh)STRANDBERG MALLORY 122 3.50 49% 1.10    
TWITTER TRAFFIC Sep07 Aug30 Aug12 Aug01 Jul02 (crumley jevon)HESS SARA 114 5.00    
SLY WINK Sep08 Aug26 Aug05 Jul13 Jun30 (thomas mark)MCKEE J 119 4.50 19% 4.10    
EASY IS GOOD Sep23 May26 May12 Apr28 Feb01 (vaughn terry)CANUTO THIAGO 122 20.00    
MAMITA LINDA Aug30 Aug12 Aug01 Jul07 May20 (rodriquez)CORREA L 122 6.00    
 
BTP-8   10/07/2023 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($9.1K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MIDNIGHT XO Sep15 Aug26 Aug01 Jun08 Mar18 (hancock dan)MIRANDA ROGELIO 121 30.00 5% 19.00    
EXPLOSIVE SKIES Sep30 Sep21 Aug23 Aug01 Jul07 (patrick gary)MCKEE J 121 3.50    
PROVOLONE Sep21         (fernandez kel)CANUTO THIAGO 124 10.00 7% 13.80    
CAPTIVE STAR Sep15 Aug29 Aug05 Jul21 Jul07 (cline robert)MARCANO Y 116 10.00 6% 15.80    
SCR  FEEL THE RIDE Sep27 Aug28 Sep11 Aug21 Jul24 (gotera car)REYES FRANK 124 30.00    
DOGWOODS BECCA Sep30 Aug17 Aug04 Jul21 Jul07 (scott anthony)LEBRON VICTOR 124 30.00    
BASEBALL PEGGE Sep16 Mar15       (crawford ge)JIMENEZ J 121 30.00    
BIRD SET FREE Sep15 Aug29 Aug05 Jun29 Jun16 (pitts c)COLON H 124 12.00    
SOUTHERN MESA Sep27 Aug29 Aug05 Jul21 Sep14 (royal madelyn)BUSH V 121 30.00    
10  POINT WELL TAKEN May24 May16 Apr23 Mar31 Mar04 (corrigan )CORREA L 124 4.00 64% 0.60    
11  LA COPA Sep14         (macias adolf)TERRAZA GERMAN 116 20.00    
12  LAST CHANCE DANCE Sep27 Sep05 Aug09 Jul20 Jun08 (oliver victoria)MOJICA JR 121 5.00    
13  CAIRO WINNER Aug30 Aug09 Aug02 Jul17 Jun26 (gotera car)LEON A 121 30.00    
SCR  LASS QUISTMAS Aug22         (toye lin)LEBRON VICTOR 124 30.00    
SCR  NAUTICAL MILE Sep08 Jul12 Jun08 May10 Feb02 (lobo h)JIMENEZ ALBIN 121 2.50    
SCR  GOLDEN HEIST Sep25 Aug31 Jul20 Jul03 Jun07 (thompson erin)HUGHES CARLY 124 30.00    
 
BTP-9   10/07/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($9K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
THIS ILL DEFEND Sep23 Sep07 Aug15 Jul13 Jun23 (estvanko)MARTINEZ LUIS 124 2.50 29% 2.40    
MUSTANG WILLIE Sep20 Sep07 Aug23 Aug15 Aug03 (roque elis)CANUTO THIAGO 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
ABOUNDING Sep16 Aug03 Jul21 Jul12 Jun15 (cook davi)CORREA L 121 15.00    
PERFECT WAGER Sep12 Aug30 Aug23 Aug16 Aug05 (witthauer john )REYES FRANK 124 3.00 46% 1.20    
GAMBLER Sep16 Aug15 Aug02 May19 Sep12 (bush s)BUSH V 124 4.50    
GIANT TRICK Sep23 Dec12       (rhoden carlto)LEBRON VICTOR 124 20.00    
SCR  LAKE TAHOE Sep28 Aug26 Aug15 Aug03 Jul12 (davis joseph)TERRAZA GERMAN 119 5.00    
UNCAPTURED PULSE Sep23 Sep16 Sep07 Aug23 Aug01 (roque elis)MIRANDA ROGELIO 124 8.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.