Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Thursday - April 13, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (1/7/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/7/3)-(1/7/3/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/7/3)-(1/7/3/6)-(1/7/3/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (1/7/3)-(4/7/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/7/3)-(4/7/5/6)-(2/5/7/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-2   WIN (4/7/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/7/5/6)-(4/7/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/7/5/6)-(4/7/5/6)-(4/7/5/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/7/5/6)-(2/5/7/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/7/5/6)-(2/5/7/6)-(5/2/4/1) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
AQU-3   WIN (2/5/7/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/7/6)-(2/5/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/5/7/6)-(2/5/7/6)-(2/5/7/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/5/7/6)-(5/2/4/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/5/7/6)-(5/2/4/1)-(4/3/9) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-4   WIN (5/2/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/2/4/1)-(5/2/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/2/4/1)-(5/2/4/1)-(5/2/4/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/2/4/1)-(4/3/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/2/4/1)-(4/3/9)-(9/6) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-5   WIN (4/3/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/9)-(4/3/9/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/3/9)-(4/3/9/5)-(4/3/9/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/3/9)-(9/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/3/9)-(9/6)-(1/6/2/4) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-6   WIN (9/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (9/6)-(9/6/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (9/6)-(9/6/1/5)-(9/6/1/5) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (9/6)-(1/6/2/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (9/6)-(1/6/2/4)-(11/4/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-7   WIN (1/6/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/2/4)-(1/6/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/2/4)-(1/6/2/4)-(1/6/2/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/6/2/4)-(11/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
AQU-8   WIN (11/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (11/4/1)-(1/11/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (11/4/1)-(1/11/4)-(1/11/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   04/13/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($28K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GYPSY JANIE Jun14 May13 Mar07 Feb08 Jan03 (servis tyler)ADORNO ABNER 120 2.50 47% 1.10    
2  EXFILTRATION Feb26 Jan22 Dec18 Dec02 Aug04 (pregman john )PANAIJO JORGE 120 20.00    
3  LEFT LEANING LUCY Mar24 Mar05 Feb18 Jan12 Dec18 (follett norman)BROWN DALTON 123 4.00 7% 12.60    
4  TWICE SMITTEN Mar17 Jun15       (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.00    
5  BELLS ON HER TOES Mar17 Feb12 Jan29 Dec30 Dec18 (metivier rich)SILVERA RUBEN 123 12.00    
6  VALLARAND Feb17 Feb10 Jan06 Dec10 Nov13 (martin carlo)SAMUEL L 123 3.50 ★    
7  WEDONTBELIEVEHER Jan18 Dec28 Nov02 Oct15 Aug26 (avila c)TORRES A 118 4.50 17% 4.80    
 
AQU-2   04/13/2023 5940ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WISHING ON A STAR Mar31 Mar05 Jan18 Sep25 Aug20 (de hora)MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 5.00    
2  DUCKPHAT Mar18 Feb20 Jan22 Dec30 Nov26 (henry nevill)TORRES A 117 12.00    
3  TONIGHT WE LOVE Feb26 Feb02 Jan13 Jan05 Dec08 (mart)HUAYAS (JASON) 117 10.00    
4  SHE CAUGHT MY EYE Jan22 Jan06 Dec08 Oct20 Sep05 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 2.50 38% 1.60    
5  VODKATINI Mar31 Jan20 Dec03 Nov04 Sep10 (gorham michael )CARMOUCHE K 122 4.00 14% 6.10    
6  AFILADA Apr02 Mar05 Jan26 Jan01 Nov21 (rice linda)DAVIS DYLAN 122 10.00 10% 8.90    
7  DESERT DALLIANCE Mar12 Feb13 Dec09 Nov13 Oct12 (breen j)ORTIZ L 120 1.80 17% 5.10    
 
AQU-3   04/13/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CENTAVO Mar25 Mar05 Feb12 Jan27 Jan21 (chatt)HERNANDEZ OMAR 115 15.00    
2  COLLOQUY Mar24 Feb19 Jan07 Dec03 Sep18 (falcone rober)FRANCO MANUEL 122 1.20 27% 2.70    
3  SKYLANDER Jan28 Jan07 Dec03 Oct22 Oct08 (baker )MARAGH RAMSAY 120 6.00    
4  SALUTE TO AMERICA Mar05 Feb19 Jan27 Dec16 Nov19 (rodriguez gusta)DAVIS DYLAN 122 10.00    
5  HIGHER QUALITY Jan28 Aug28 Jul16 Jun11 Apr16 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 2.50 25% 3.00    
6  VOLIERO Mar05 Feb10 Jan14 Dec10 Dec01 (persaud rand)SAMUEL L 120 30.00 11% 7.90    
7  MIDNIGHT WORKER Mar26 Mar04 Feb18 Jan13 Jan05 (chic)HUAYAS (JASON) 115 4.00 12% 7.60    
 
AQU-4   04/13/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($50K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHASTA STAR Mar10 May12 Apr15 Mar26 Feb21 (klesaris ro)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 8.00 11% 8.00    
2  QUALITY STONES Mar25 Mar03 Feb05 Dec03 Nov20 (rodriguez gusta)DAVIS DYLAN 120 4.00 21% 3.90    
3  REIGNING CHICK Mar18 Feb20 Jan28 Jan15 Dec10 (reynolds patri)ORTIZ L 123 6.00    
4  TARA'S TALENT Mar28 Feb19 Jan02 Dec07 Nov15 (moore m)CARMOUCHE K 123 8.00 14% 6.30    
5  BEAUTIFUL KAREN Feb19 Jan29 Jan15 Dec03 Oct23 (tosc)HUAYAS (JASON) 118 3.50 21% 3.70    
6  TRIPLE P Mar25 Mar10 Feb18 Feb10 Jan27 (jones eduardo)PANAIJO JORGE 120 30.00    
7  DIVA BANKER Mar19 Mar03 Jan27 Jan08 Dec03 (rodriguez ru)TORRES A 118 2.50    
8  CHAYSENBRYN Feb18 Jan15 Dec16 Nov11 Oct27 (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 120 5.00    
 
AQU-5   04/13/2023 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OPEN TIL MIDNIGHT Mar17 Jan08 Dec11 Oct30 Feb11 (ryerson james )LEZCANO JOSE 127 15.00    
SCR  LIAR'S POKER Nov26 Oct16       (clement christo)DAVIS DYLAN 120 5.00    
3  MR. KRINGLE Feb12 Jan18 Dec24 Nov05 Oct09 (terranova jo)TORRES A 122 6.00 13% 6.40    
4  FATIMA'S BLESSING Mar25 Mar08 Feb25 Jan21 Nov25 (summers chad)ORTIZ L 127 4.00 24% 3.10    
5  CITIZEN K Sep04 Jul16 May21 Apr28   (de horaci)FRANCO MANUEL 125 3.00 ★    
6  NOBLE HUNTSMAN Nov26 Oct29 Oct02 Aug31 Aug19 (friedman mitche)CANCEL ERIC 118 6.00    
7  STARQUIST Feb25 Jan15 Nov25 Oct30 Oct09 (kimmel)MARAGH RAMSAY 118 8.00    
SCR  LORD FLINTSHIRE Sep04 Jul23 Jun24 May28 Apr30 (brion keri)CARMOUCHE K 125 8.00    
9  TIMBUKTU Feb26 Jan26 Dec18 Nov05 Oct07 (shuman mark)MCCARTHY TREVOR 127 10.00 11% 7.90    
SCR  ACHILLES HEEL Mar17 Feb19 Jan28 Jan07 Dec02 (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 125 3.50    
SCR  SAFALOW'S MISSION Mar10 Feb12 Jan08 Dec11 Jun11 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 125 1.60 29% 2.50    
 
AQU-6   04/13/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EQUAL PROTECTION Mar03 Jan14 Nov19     (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 118 4.00 ★    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of APPEARANCE by HARLINGTON)
SCR  PRICING POWER Oct29         (brown c)ORTIZ L 126 4.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of PIONEER PRINCESS by PIONEERING)
SCR  D HOPPER Mar03         (brown c)DAVIS DYLAN 126 3.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of K J WARRIOR by TAPIT)
SCR  SACRED RHYME         (brown c)ORTIZ L 118 3.00 53% 0.90    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of FLIRT by HALOS AND HORNS)
3  WHENLOVETAKESOVER Mar04 Feb11 Jan06     (lakeman and)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 10.00    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of LADY JUNE BUG by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
4  MERCANTE Jan21 Dec17 Nov06     (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 118 10.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of CARESSING by HONOUR AND GLORY)
5  GOOD RAPPORT Mar04 Jan21 Dec17 Nov18 Sep25 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 20.00 ★    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of YES I'LL GO by YES IT'S TRUE)
6  OHANA HONOR Mar04 Nov06 Sep18 Aug13   (mcgaughey cla)SILVERA RUBEN 118 5.00 7% 13.20    
  (by HONOR CODE out of SPACY TRACY by AWESOME AGAIN)
7  TWIRLER         (mott i)CARMOUCHE K 118 15.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of GARDENIA GIRL by SCAT DADDY)
8  FAST BOAT TO SKYE Feb11 Jan21 Dec16 Oct22   (donk davi)VARGAS A 118 12.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of CAUSE SHE'S FAST by CREATIVE CAUSE)
9  WON AN AWARD Oct28         (duarte jr)DAVIS DYLAN 118 3.50 18% 4.60    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of SOUNDS OF THE CITY by STREET CRY (IRE))
10  STEADY SCHEMING         (morley thomas)CANCEL ERIC 118 15.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of ANCIENT GODDESS (FR) by UNKNOWN)
 
AQU-7   04/13/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:34
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY FIRST LOVE Mar05 Jan22 Jan13 Dec10 Nov13 (ferraro w)CANCEL ERIC 125 2.00 26% 2.90    
2  CINDERELLA'S CAUSE Mar31 Feb18 Jan06 Dec15 Nov16 (falcone robe)TORRES A 120 5.00 22% 3.60    
3  FREDDYMO FACTOR Apr02 Mar25 Mar17 Jan28 Jun25 (jones eduardo)PANAIJO JORGE 127 20.00    
4  JULIANA'S ROSE Feb09 Dec30 Dec04 Oct22 Sep05 (hennig mark)CARMOUCHE K 125 4.00 9% 10.80    
5  CAPTIVATING CARA Mar31 Mar12 Feb11 Jan06 Oct01 (diprima grego)SILVERA RUBEN 125 12.00    
6  CHASING DAYLIGHT Jun24         (abreu r)ORTIZ L 127 2.50 23% 3.30    
7  KEEN DANCER Mar31 Mar24 Feb19 Feb09 Jan22 (per)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 125 12.00    
8  DASHING DELLA Mar12 Feb12 Jan14 Nov19 Oct30 (rodriguez gusta)DAVIS DYLAN 118 12.00    
 
AQU-8   04/13/2023 3960ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($88K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:06
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THIN WHITE DUKE Nov25 Oct27 Oct01 Sep02 Aug05 (donk davi)VARGAS A 120 5.00 ★    
1A  YES AND YES Nov25 Oct01 Sep06 Aug05 Jul15 (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 5.00 5% 18.60    
SCR  ANACONDA Mar11 Feb04 Nov25 Nov07 Sep29 (sharp joe)CANCEL ERIC 120 8.00    
3  INTO THE SUNRISE Jan28 Jan01 Oct08 Aug07 Jul02 (casse mark)CARMOUCHE K 120 12.00    
4  NOTHING BETTER Dec24 Nov25 Oct20 Sep05 Aug14 (duarte jorge )FRANCO MANUEL 123 3.50 10% 9.50    
5  COINAGE Mar04 Feb04 Sep10 Jul21 Jul04 (casse mark)LEZCANO JOSE 118 20.00    
6  STRAIGHT ANSWER (GB) Jan15 Nov18       (cox)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 120 10.00    
SCR  RINALDI Oct30 Apr09       (bond harold )TORRES A 113 15.00    
8  COMEDY TOWN Sep24 Aug27 Jul29 Jul04 May20 (miceli mich)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 6.00    
9  SLIPSTREAM Mar10 Apr10       (clement christ)ORTIZ L 118 4.50    
SCR  MARVALOUS MIKE Mar08 Feb16 Jan30 Jan07 Nov08 (montoya marya)ADORNO ABNER 118 30.00    
11  VOODOO ZIP Nov25 Oct01 Sep02 Jul02 May29 (clement christo)DAVIS DYLAN 118 6.00 12% 7.40    
SCR  MR PHIL Aug10 Jun10 May22 Apr21 Mar27 (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 118 1.60 34% 1.90    
SCR  WENDELL FONG Mar04 Jan29 Jan04 Nov21 Oct24 (lynch nat)VARGAS A 120 2.50 7% 12.60    
SCR  SYNTHESIS Feb05 Jan28 Dec09 Nov26 Sep30 (jacobson david)ORTIZ L 120 3.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.