Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Saturday - February 18, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (7/1/5/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/1/5/3)-(7/1/5/3/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/1/5/3)-(7/1/5/3/4)-(7/1/5/3/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/1/5/3)-(3/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (7/1/5/3)-(3/1)-(5/2/4) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-2   WIN (3/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/1)-(3/1/2/4/5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (3/1)-(3/1/2/4/5)-(3/1/2/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/1)-(5/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/1)-(5/2/4)-(1/4/6/7/5) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
AQU-3   WIN (5/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/4)-(5/2/4/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/2/4)-(5/2/4/1)-(5/2/4/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/2/4)-(1/4/6/7/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/2/4)-(1/4/6/7/5)-(5/1/3) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
AQU-4   WIN (1/4/6/7/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/4/6/7/5)-(1/4/6/7/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/4/6/7/5)-(1/4/6/7/5)-(1/4/6/7/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/4/6/7/5)-(5/1/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/4/6/7/5)-(5/1/3)-(8/2/4/9/6) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
AQU-5   WIN (5/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/3)-(5/1/3/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/1/3)-(5/1/3/6/4)-(5/1/3/6/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (5/1/3)-(8/2/4/9/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/1/3)-(8/2/4/9/6)-(4/1/8) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
AQU-6   WIN (8/2/4/9/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/2/4/9/6)-(8/2/4/9/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/2/4/9/6)-(8/2/4/9/6)-(8/2/4/9/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/2/4/9/6)-(4/1/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/2/4/9/6)-(4/1/8)-(6/8) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
AQU-7   WIN (4/1/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/8)-(4/1/8/9/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/1/8)-(4/1/8/9/7)-(4/1/8/9/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (4/1/8)-(6/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/1/8)-(6/8)-(11/5/7) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-8   WIN (6/8) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/8)-(6/8/3/1/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (6/8)-(6/8/3/1/7)-(6/8/3/1/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/8)-(11/5/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
AQU-9   WIN (11/5/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (11/5/7)-(11/5/7/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (11/5/7)-(11/5/7/2)-(11/5/7/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   02/18/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($35K) 3 ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOT ROD LINCOLN Jan21 Dec17 Sep22 Sep04   (rodriguez ru)TORRES A 113 3.50 13% 6.90    
SCR  M. C. DOUBLE R Feb11 Jan21 Dec17 Nov17 Oct22 (rodr)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 3.50    
2  SARATOGA STRONG Feb02 Jan05 Dec11     (handal raymon)OLVER MADISON 113 4.00    
3  SARATOGA RED         (handal raymond)DAVIS KATIE 120 8.00 6% 16.40    
4  BOYS CODE Feb09 Jan07 Sep21 Aug23 Jul26 (miceli m)DAVIS A 120 5.00 ★    
5  LAUREL VALLEY Jan08 Dec17       (pletcher todd )LEZCANO JOSE 120 3.00 12% 7.30    
6  LIOTTA Jan29 Dec17 Nov17 Sep16 Aug19 (hills )MARAGH RAMSAY 120 10.00    
7  SORPRESO Dec07 Nov06 Aug10 Jul17   (romero rafael)BOWMAN ADAM 120 3.50 47% 1.10    
 
AQU-2   02/18/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($84K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NABOKOV Jan19 Nov06 Sep17 Aug18 Jul02 (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 120 1.60 28% 2.60    
2  KING ANGELO Jan13 Dec17 Nov20 Oct16 Jul24 (abreu r)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.50 ★    
3  SHERIFF BIANCO Feb05 Dec30 Dec17 Nov17 Oct01 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 123 1.40 44% 1.30    
4  MONDAY MORNING QB Jan21 Dec17 Dec03 Nov25 Nov07 (cash norman )TORRES A 113 10.00 ★    
5  AMERICAN GENTLEMAN Feb10 Dec03 Nov05 Sep17 Aug06 (rodrig)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 20.00 ★    
6  BIG ENGINE Feb10 Jan21 Dec30 Nov25 Oct30 (rice)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 8.00    
 
AQU-3   02/18/2023 5280ft DIRT RC11 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($125K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FROST POINT Dec30 May20 Apr10 Feb18 Jan27 (mott will)VARGAS A 118 3.00 ★    
  (by FROSTED (GB) out of BALLETTO by TIMBER COUNTRY)
2  BATTLE BLING Jan01 Dec03 Nov04 Oct01 Sep06 (atras rob)DAVIS DYLAN 124 1.60 27% 2.70    
  (by VANCOUVER (GB) out of SOLEIL ROUGE by E DUBAI)
SCR  MOMMASGOTTARUN Jan26 Jan12 Dec31 Nov13 Oct06 (ric)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 118 12.00 ★    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of LOVE IN TOKYO by TIZNOW)
4  PIECE OF MY HEART Feb10 Jan21 Jan05 Dec08 Nov11 (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 118 8.00 10% 8.60    
  (by FLAT OUT out of INTHERIVER by SUNRIVER)
5  FALCONET Jan01 Nov25 Sep24 Jul09 Jun03 (pletcher todd )LEZCANO JOSE 122 1.20 38% 1.70    
  (by UNCLE MO out of BIRDATTHEWIRE by SUMMER BIRD)
 
AQU-4   02/18/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($39K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHAYSENBRYN Jan15 Dec16 Nov11 Oct27 Aug24 (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.50 32% 2.20    
1A  SHE'S A BLACK BELT Jan15 Dec08 Nov26 Nov10 Oct14 (rodriguez ru)TORRES A 113 2.50    
2  HONORABLE LILLY Jan13 Dec14 Nov16 Oct26 Oct17 (sells rachel)HARKIE K 120 12.00    
3  CINDERELLA'S CAUSE Jan06 Dec15 Nov16 Nov04 Aug28 (englehart chri)LEZCANO JOSE 123 1.80    
4  LEFT LEANING LUCY Jan12 Dec18 Nov16 Nov02 Oct10 (atras rob)VARGAS A 123 3.00 15% 5.50    
5  BETTY'S SMILE Jan13 Nov08 Oct17 Sep28 Sep14 (grusmark)DAVIS A 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  MERAVIGLIOSO Feb10 Jan20 Dec29 Dec03 Nov07 (ferraro jame)LAPRIDA JEREMY 123 8.00 12% 7.30    
7  TRIPLE P Feb10 Jan27 Jan15 Dec15 Dec01 (jones e)GOMEZ O 123 8.00 10% 9.00    
 
AQU-5   02/18/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($35K) 3 F PT- 2:51
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DERWIN'S PAYNTER Jan28 Dec18       (serpe phi)VARGAS A 120 4.00 28% 2.50    
2  FOUR QUARTZ Dec18         (rodrig)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 12.00    
3  AMANDA'S FOLLY Jan06 Nov26 Oct23 Sep15 Aug03 (martin carlos)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.50 5% 19.00    
4  MY GORGEOUS Jan27 Jan12 Oct23 Sep25   (reynolds)DAVIS A 120 8.00 ★    
5  K D KAKES Jan20 Dec30 Nov19     (falcone robert )DAVIS DYLAN 120 1.80 46% 1.20    
6  DENIECE OF DEGRACE Jan22 Jan06 Nov26 Nov04   (noda)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 10.00 ★    
7  QUEENPIN Nov18 Sep15       (gargan danny)TORRES A 113 10.00    
8  LA CHANCE Oct23 Sep23 Sep01 Aug08 Jul15 (romero rafael)BOWMAN ADAM 120 15.00    
 
AQU-6   02/18/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($14K) Purse ($28K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JAA MODE         (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 120 12.00    
2  BREADMAN Dec15 Nov26 Nov19 Nov11 Nov05 (persaud randi)CASTILLO AMIN 123 4.00 16% 5.10    
SCR  CENTAVO Feb12 Jan27 Jan21 Jan15 Dec29 (chatt)HERNANDEZ OMAR 116 15.00    
4  BINGO JOHN Feb05 Jan22 Jan12 Oct27 Sep24 (pregman john )PANAIJO JORGE 120 8.00 13% 6.40    
5  SEANAN Jan07 Dec10 Nov16 Oct31 Sep21 (rodriguez ru)TORRES A 116 2.50    
6  ONE MORE SCORE Jan12 Apr08 Mar28 Mar02 Feb06 (brow)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 6.00 5% 19.00    
7  JONNY QUIST Jan29 Jan07 Dec07 Nov24 Nov05 (bedard alan)DAVIS DYLAN 123 10.00    
8  JAY'STALKER Dec10 Nov10 Oct02 Aug05   (levine bruce)FRANCO MANUEL 123 5.00 38% 1.70    
9  DONTBELATE Jan14 Dec18 Dec01 Oct28 Aug31 (giangiulio m)HARKIE K 120 6.00 5% 18.50    
 
AQU-7   02/18/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 3 ALL PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REGISTER Jan28 Jan06       (donk david)DAVIS KATIE 120 3.50 19% 4.30    
  (by SUPER SAVER out of CHAMPAGNE SUE by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
2  EGYPT Feb11         (de horac)TORRES A 113 10.00    
  (by TIZNOW out of PHAROAH'S PRINCESS by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
3  YORKSHIRE PRINCE Jan21 Dec03 Oct22     (mor)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 120 15.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of HOPEFUL UNION by DIXIE UNION)
4  POWER IN NUMBERS Jan14         (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.00 46% 1.20    
  (by GIRVIN out of GOLD EDGE by EDDINGTON)
5  ASMODEUS Jan28         (more)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 8.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of SPANISH POST by FLATTER)
6  BATTUTA D'ORO Jan25 Nov06 Oct18 Sep24 Sep09 (romero rafael)BOWMAN ADAM 120 20.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of CHRISTINA D'ORO by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
7  FOXBURG Jan28         (mott will)VARGAS A 120 12.00 ★    
  (by ARROGATE out of TOO MUCH MALIBU by MALIBU MOON)
8  THERE BE DRAGONS Dec24 Nov19       (pletch)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 6.00 11% 8.30    
  (by BERNARDINI out of MEMA by GRAND REVIVAL)
9  RIDE UP Jan14         (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 5.00 ★    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of WALKWITHAPURPOSE by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
10  MCCULLOUGH Dec24 Nov06       (brown c)DAVIS DYLAN 120 8.00    
  (by CURLIN out of ASTRAY by BERNARDINI)
 
AQU-8   02/18/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($82K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GASLIGHT Jan27 Jan01 Dec03 Nov18 Aug27 (quic)HUAYAS (JASON) 116 12.00 ★    
SCR  SURPRISE BOSS Oct23 Aug14 Jul17 Jun19 Jun04 (romero rafael)BOWMAN ADAM 123 15.00    
3  TWELTH MAN Jan13 Dec17 May07 Feb12 Jan08 (nevin michelle)LEZCANO JOSE 123 3.50 ★    
4  RUSSIAN TO WIN Jan20 Jan07 Dec01 Oct16 Sep24 (chichakly amira)DAVIS KATIE 120 10.00    
5  KAZ'S BEACH Mar27 Mar05       (synnefias)HERNANDEZ A 123 15.00    
6  TODAY'S FLAVOR Jan07 Dec11 Nov27 Sep23   (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 123 1.00 61% 0.60    
7  HANDSOME CAT Jan27 Jan13 Dec17 Nov08 Sep18 (jacobson )VARGAS A 123 10.00 ★    
8  RYAN'S CAT Jan27 Jan13 Nov05 Oct08 Aug20 (rodriguez gusta)DAVIS DYLAN 123 5.00 12% 7.20    
 
AQU-9   02/18/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAGNEY (BRZ) Jan05 Oct29 Aug17 Jun23 May20 (schett)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 30.00    
2  BIG VENEZUELA Feb02 Jan20 Dec18 Nov19 May28 (tess)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 6.00 ★    
3  LIAM'S FIRE Jan14 Jan01 Dec04 May21 May06 (chichakly amira)DAVIS KATIE 120 12.00    
SCR  MACH ONE Jan26 Dec29 Sep16 Aug21 Aug14 (persaud eddi)HARKIE K 120 15.00 13% 6.90    
5  ALLABOUTTHEMONEY Feb11 Dec30 Dec16 Nov27 Oct23 (jacobson david)LEZCANO JOSE 120 3.50 24% 3.10    
6  SMOKE AND HEAT Feb02 Dec15 Sep29 Jul24 Jun24 (englehart chris)DAVIS DYLAN 123 10.00    
7  AFJAN Jan07 Dec09 Nov18 Oct15 Sep05 (morley thomas)OLVER MADISON 116 8.00 8% 11.20    
8  SON OF AN EX Feb12 Jan26 Jan05 Dec18 Jun30 (persaud randi)LUZZI J 120 12.00    
9  MIDNIGHT WORKER Jan13 Jan05 Dec15 Dec09 Oct14 (chichakly am)TORRES A 113 10.00    
SCR  COLLOQUY Jan07 Dec03 Sep18 Aug27 Jun30 (de horaci)FRANCO MANUEL 120 5.00    
11  CALLALOO Jan19 Jan12 Dec15 Nov13   (donk davi)VARGAS A 123 4.00 28% 2.60    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.