Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Saturday - August 17, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (4/7/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/7/8)-(4/7/9/3/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/7/8)-(4/7/9/3/8)-(4/7/9/3/8) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (4/7/8)-(1/4/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/7/8)-(1/4/2)-(5/1/6/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
ELP-2   WIN (1/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/2)-(1/4/6/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/4/2)-(1/4/6/2)-(1/4/6/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (1/4/2)-(5/1/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/4/2)-(5/1/6/7)-(6/5/7/8/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ELP-3   WIN (5/1/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/1/6/7)-(5/1/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/1/6/7)-(5/1/6/7)-(5/1/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/1/6/7)-(6/5/7/8/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/1/6/7)-(6/5/7/8/9)-(8/4/7/10) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-4   WIN (6/5/7/8/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/5/7/8/9)-(6/5/7/8/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/5/7/8/9)-(6/5/7/8/9)-(6/5/7/8/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/5/7/8/9)-(8/4/7/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/5/7/8/9)-(8/4/7/10)-(2/7/4) 60 $0.50 $180 
ELP-5   WIN (8/4/7/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/4/7/10)-(8/4/7/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/4/7/10)-(8/4/7/10)-(8/4/7/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/4/7/10)-(2/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/4/7/10)-(2/7/4)-(3/12/5/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-6   WIN (2/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/7/4)-(2/7/3/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/7/4)-(2/7/3/4)-(2/7/3/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/7/4)-(3/12/5/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/7/4)-(3/12/5/9)-(8/6/9) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
ELP-7   WIN (3/12/5/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/12/5/9)-(3/12/5/6/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/12/5/9)-(3/12/5/6/9)-(3/12/5/6/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/12/5/9)-(8/6/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/12/5/9)-(8/6/9)-(4/6/8/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-8   WIN (8/6/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/6/9)-(8/6/5/9) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/6/9)-(8/6/5/9)-(8/6/5/9) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/6/9)-(4/6/8/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
ELP-9   WIN (4/6/8/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/6/8/10)-(4/6/8/7/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/6/8/10)-(4/6/8/7/10)-(4/6/8/7/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/17/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WHERE'S JACK Mar16         (hancock john )POSTON AMANDA 109 30.00    
2  LATTA Jul28 Nov11 Oct07     (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 15.00    
3  LUCCHESI Jul21 Jun16 May24 May02 Mar13 (habeeb donald)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.50 ★    
4  AIR IT OUT Aug08 Jun02 May11 Mar16 Feb24 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 2.00 41% 1.50    
5  TORNADO ROAD Jul15 Jun23 May02 Apr13 Feb03 (lukas wayn)TORRES A 119 20.00    
6  BEBEDOURO Jul20 Jun16 May11 Apr06   (lobo h)ROMAN A 119 8.00    
7  J J'S RANGER Jul15 Jun30 Apr20 Mar23 Feb18 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 4.00 34% 2.00    
8  MALIBLUE Jul21 Jul06 Jun05 May17 Apr30 (foster er)TORRES A 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
9  HAPPY GREY Jul20 Jun21 Mar08 Feb03   (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 3.50 ★    
 
ELP-2   08/17/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHANISA Jul07 Jun20 May16 May02 Feb16 (shirer matt )TORRES A 122 4.50 42% 1.40    
2  MOON FLEET Jul13 May31 May04 Apr17 Feb14 (roberson denni)CASTANON L 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  CANDY CRAZE Jul21 Jun05 May24 May01   (habeeb j)BEJARANO R 120 2.50    
4  MOTOWN DYNAMIC Jul07 May18 Apr04 Feb24 Jan20 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 3.00 20% 4.00    
5  IDALOU Jun21 Jun02 Feb25 Dec31 Oct25 (schultz l)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00    
6  SHE'S INTHEARMYNOW May16 Mar30 Feb07 Oct02 Aug17 (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 122 4.50 ★    
7  TAKE CHARGE BABE Jul20 Dec08 Oct29 Sep23   (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 118 6.00    
 
ELP-3   08/17/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ENDLESS GLOW Jun29 Jun08 May11     (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 22% 3.60    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of BERNINGBRIGHTLY by BERNARDINI)
SCR  CLIQUE Jul27         (irion heath)ARRIETA REYNIER 119 8.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of LITTLE ALEXIS by MR. GREELEY)
3  LEISURE TIME         (medina rober)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of ESKENFORMONEY by ESKENDEREYA)
SCR  MELIDOUS SONNET         (hancock john )POSTON AMANDA 109 30.00    
  (by SKY MESA out of SCENE NOT HEARD by ROYAL ACADEMY)
5  HEY OLIVIA Jul27 Jun29 Nov03     (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 119 2.50 43% 1.30    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of SHE'S A GYPSY by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
6  QUALITY CREDIT Feb17         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 4.50 12% 7.20    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of STOPCHARGINGMARIA by TALE OF THE CAT)
7  BLOODY COLORS WAVE         (arnold ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of EVERYONELOVESJIMMY by JIMMY CREED)
8  LEFTOVER SUSHI         (navarrete )LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 15.00    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of DANCE STUDIO by BERTRANDO)
9  RUNCATHERINERUN         (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 5.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of KATHERINE'SKADENCE by MR. GREELEY)
 
ELP-4   08/17/2024 5280ft TURF RC2 FIRM Mdn Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($44K) 2 F PT- 2:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JEWISH MOTHER Jun28 Jun16       (hobby ste)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
2  MIZMALICE         (o'neill doug)TORRES A 119 6.00    
3  IBUKI Jul13         (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 6.00    
4  LADY RILEY Jul21         (davis chri)CORRALES GERARDO 119 5.00    
5  BROADWAY LIGHTS         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 28% 2.50    
6  TRIUMPHANT SPIRIT         (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 119 3.50 30% 2.40    
7  POPPY THE PRINCESS         (newton troy)CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00 6% 16.90    
8  DIVINE ARCH         (esqu)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 20.00 6% 16.90    
9  SQUARE BABY         (wilkes ian)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 15.00 6% 16.90    
SCR  AIRFORCE LIGHTNING         (puhich mike)BARBOSA CARLOS 119 8.00    
11  SWEET STAR Aug04         (bahena ismael)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
SCR  ARE YOU A SPY         (bogle fer)BEALMEAR C 112 30.00    
 
ELP-5   08/17/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 2 ALL PT- 2:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MISSION IMPROBABLE Jul02 Jun05       (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 6.00    
2  REMAINING NAMELESS Aug05 Jul15       (jazdzewski)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00    
3  SHAN Jul29         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 5.00    
4  COUNTRY VITA         (beckman wh)TORRES A 119 6.00 15% 5.60    
5  FINANCIAL WHIZ Jul27 Jun19 May09     (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
6  HANK HILL Jul22         (brennan t)BEALMEAR C 112 10.00    
7  LOOKATMYBUCKLE Aug05 Jun26 Apr26 Apr07   (gorostieta ci)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 116 8.00 10% 9.30    
8  EDELWEISS         (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.50 53% 0.90    
SCR  SUNNY MAGIC Jul14 Jun08       (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 2.50    
10  PATRIOTIC JERRELL Jul27 Jul07 May16     (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-6   08/17/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($36K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEAUDACIOUS COLTON Jul15 Jul04 Jun19 Mar28 Feb23 (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 30.00    
2  CURLIN'S GESTURE Jul21 May11 Jul02     (walsh brendan )MACHADO LUAN 123 3.00 49% 1.00    
3  EPIC BATTLE Jul21 Jun19 May30 May09 Oct29 (hiles rick)LANERIE J 118 4.00 ★    
4  MY FRIEND LOUIE Jun07 May04 Apr12 Mar13 Feb08 (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  MIKEALICIOUS Jul06 Jun14 Apr26 Mar23 Feb24 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00    
6  ARTHUR Jul29 Jun26 Sep02     (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 8.00    
7  ANDY'S CANDY Jul15 Apr28 Mar01 Feb11 Jan28 (gibson de)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.50 22% 3.50    
8  FLAT ON Jun23 May26 Sep04 Jul08 May29 (eurton pe)TORRES A 123 3.50    
 
ELP-7   08/17/2024 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISSY BEE Aug05 Jul05 Jun19 Apr30 Apr11 (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 118 30.00    
2  FLORIS Jul28 Jul05 Mar29 Feb16 Jan24 (duvall william)CASTANON L 123 20.00    
3  YZZY'S BOLT Jul04 Jun20 May26 Mar29   (cano m)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 3.00 42% 1.40    
SCR  NOSHUGFORPOP Jul04 Jun10 Apr05 Mar13 Feb23 (colebrook ben)ACHARD ALEX 118 3.50    
5  WHAT'S CRACKIN Jun27 Feb10 Dec27 May26   (hamilton sarah)ELLIOTT JANE 118 15.00 8% 12.30    
SCR  GRAND PRAIRIE GAL Aug05 Jul07 May26 Apr28 Oct13 (moquett ronal)CANNON DECLAN 120 4.50 ★    
7  LUBU Jul20 Jul04 Jun08 Apr30 Apr05 (hill f)BEJARANO R 118 30.00    
8  CALLAS Jul04 May03 Apr12 Mar10 Feb11 (house )LOPEZ EDUARDO 123 4.00    
9  SHE'S MAGIC Jul05 Jun14 Jun01 May11 Nov12 (maker michae)TORRES A 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
10  PERCEPTIVE Jul16 May30 May03 Apr07 Mar03 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 6.00    
SCR  BYZANTINE Aug05 Jul05 Jun01 Apr27 Mar22 (cano mu)TORRES A 123 15.00    
12  GRACE GIVEN Aug05 Jul22 Jul04 May31 Apr14 (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 6.00 22% 3.60    
SCR  CATTY CRUISE Jul29 Jun10 May08 Apr06 Mar21 (cunningha)BEALMEAR C 111 20.00    
 
ELP-8   08/17/2024 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($73K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BLUE DREAM MACHINE Apr21 Feb23       (walsh brendan )MACHADO LUAN 123 3.00    
2  HOME GAME Jul05 May30       (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
SCR  PARTY Feb10 Dec29 Nov04 Sep30 Jul15 (colebrook ben)ACHARD ALEX 118 15.00    
4  BELLE CHERIE Jun15 Jun01 May04 Sep16 Nov12 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 6.00    
5  WINDY WALK Jul12 Jun22 May23 May09 Apr14 (davis christop)DOYLE SOPHIE 118 6.00 ★    
6  HARBOR SPRINGS Jun26 May26 May03 Apr07 Feb17 (foley greg)TORRES A 118 5.00 15% 5.60    
7  PLAYBACK Jul13 Jan10 Nov29 Oct29 Jun30 (lobo h)ROMAN A 118 10.00    
8  SHE CALLED Jun22 May25 Apr27 Mar17   (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.50 58% 0.70    
9  PUNCHY GIRL Jun27 May23 May03 Apr13 Mar21 (morse l)BEJARANO R 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-9   08/17/2024 5280ft TURF RC6 FIRM Optional Claiming ($20K) Purse ($33K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VOODOO ZIP Jun05 May10 Apr14 Mar22 Mar07 (cano mu)TORRES A 123 10.00    
SCR  GAMER Jul13 Jun21 May30 May13 Apr10 (andrade h)BEALMEAR C 116 12.00    
3  PRODIGIOUS BAY Jul20 Jun30 Jun15 May18 Apr21 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 3.00    
4  TARTUFO Jun13 Apr14 Mar07 Jan26 Dec21 (bahena is)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 123 5.00 61% 0.60    
5  COLOSSEO May31 May13 Mar02 Jan20 Dec09 (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 123 4.00    
6  BRIT'S WIT Jul15 Jun06 May16 Jul06 Jun10 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 123 10.00 10% 8.80    
7  COOL RAGS Aug04 Jul06 Sep30 Sep14 Aug06 (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 123 8.00 ★    
8  COMMUNICATION MEMO Jul29 Jul15 Jun21 May04 Apr12 (hancock dan)CONCEPCION AXEL 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  LEAVE IT TO KITTEN Jul27 Jun27 May30 Apr19 Jan04 (jarvis kathy)ACHARD ALEX 123 12.00    
10  BIG PAPER May05 Mar08 Dec01 Nov10 Oct24 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
11  KYGO (GER) Jul06 Dec22 Nov22 Sep17 Sep02 (hancock j)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 12.00    
SCR  COWBOY IMAGE Jul10 May22 Apr24 Jan26 Dec16 (luce nichole)CANNON DECLAN 123 30.00    
SCR  PICO D'ORO Jul19 Jun16 Jun05 May18 Feb25 (caramori c)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 15.00    
SCR  ATTA BOY ANTHONY Aug02 Jul17 Jul05 May15 May03 (andrade h)BEALMEAR C 116 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.