Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Monday - August 05, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (3/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/2)-(3/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/2)-(3/5/2)-(3/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/5/2)-(6/3/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/5/2)-(6/3/2)-(11/5/8/1/12) 45 $0.50 $22.50 
ELP-2   WIN (6/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/2)-(6/3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3/2)-(6/3/2)-(6/3/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/3/2)-(11/5/8/1/12) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/3/2)-(11/5/8/1/12)-(7/1/3/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ELP-3   WIN (11/5/8/1/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/5/8/1/12)-(11/5/8/1/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/5/8/1/12)-(11/5/8/1/12)-(11/5/8/1/12) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (11/5/8/1/12)-(7/1/3/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (11/5/8/1/12)-(7/1/3/5)-(4/6/1/8/3) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
ELP-4   WIN (7/1/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/1/3/5)-(7/1/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/1/3/5)-(7/1/3/5)-(7/1/3/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/1/3/5)-(4/6/1/8/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/1/3/5)-(4/6/1/8/3)-(5/12/4/10) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-5   WIN (4/6/1/8/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/6/1/8/3)-(4/6/1/8/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/6/1/8/3)-(4/6/1/8/3)-(4/6/1/8/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/6/1/8/3)-(5/12/4/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/6/1/8/3)-(5/12/4/10)-(8/1/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ELP-6   WIN (5/12/4/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/12/4/10)-(5/12/4/1/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/12/4/10)-(5/12/4/1/10)-(5/12/4/1/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (5/12/4/10)-(8/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/12/4/10)-(8/1/3)-(7/10/8/11/6) 60 $0.50 $180 
ELP-7   WIN (8/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/1/3)-(8/1/3/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/1/3)-(8/1/3/5)-(8/1/3/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/1/3)-(7/10/8/11/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/1/3)-(7/10/8/11/6)-(4/3/2) 45 $0.50 $22.50 
ELP-8   WIN (7/10/8/11/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/10/8/11/6)-(7/10/8/11/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/10/8/11/6)-(7/10/8/11/6)-(7/10/8/11/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/10/8/11/6)-(4/3/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
ELP-9   WIN (4/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/2)-(4/3/1/2/11) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/2)-(4/3/1/2/11)-(4/3/1/2/11) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/05/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($22K) 3UP M/F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TAMARA'S WAY Jul07 Jun01 May12 Sep20 Sep03 (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 123 4.50    
2  MISSY BEE Jul05 Jun19 Apr30 Apr11 Mar15 (foster eric)FUENTES ERICK 108 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  GRACE GIVEN Jul22 Jul04 May31 Apr14 Mar08 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 115 2.00 33% 2.00    
4  ELLA FRANCES Apr30 Mar27 Feb29 Feb03 Jan13 (beckman wh)TORRES A 123 3.00    
5  BYZANTINE Jul05 Jun01 Apr27 Mar22 Feb16 (morse ran)TORRES A 123 3.50 27% 2.70    
6  BEAUTIFUL MANDATE Jun17 May12 Mar22 Mar06 Feb14 (maker mich)LOVEBERRY JARETH 123 5.00    
 
ELP-2   08/05/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  QUEEN ANNA T Jun19 Apr20       (mckeever an)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 6.00    
2  VINO VELOCE Jul13 Jun19 May17 Apr17 Aug04 (puhich mike)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  OH MACARENA Jun05 Mar09 Feb02 Jan06 Dec17 (williamson)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 5.00 21% 3.90    
4  REMEMBERING MAUDE Jul21         (french wa)BEALMEAR C 111 20.00    
5  AMERICAN SPLENDOR Jul22 Jul07 Jun16     (cambray andr)HEBERT LINDSEY 118 3.50    
6  STREETS OF PARIS Jun26 Jun12       (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 2.00 31% 2.20    
7  GRAND PRAIRIE GAL Jul07 May26 Apr28 Oct13 Aug26 (moquett r)TORRES A 118 2.50    
 
ELP-3   08/05/2024 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HI'IAKA Feb14 Dec14 May19     (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00 7% 13.80    
  (by MUNNINGS out of HUA MULAN by MALIBU MOON)
2  MO HAPPY Jun08 May22 May05 Mar31 Jan28 (thompson boyd)GRAHAM J 124 30.00    
  (by TRAPPE SHOT out of GENUINE HAPPINESS by UNCLE MO)
3  PERFORMABILITY         (williamson)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of MAGICAL FLUTE by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
4  GO PURPLE         (ortiz a)TORRES A 119 8.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of WAKI PATRIOT by AWESOME PATRIOT)
5  DON'T SAY IT Oct21 Sep16       (cox h)MACHADO LUAN 119 3.50 23% 3.30    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of FOREVER DISCREET by BERNARDINI)
6  KIMBERLINA Oct21         (wojczynski jus)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 20.00    
  (by ASTERN out of SHE'S MESSI by PURIM)
7  MIA MARCELA Jul15 Jun26 Nov17 Sep27 Aug09 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 10.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
8  MIYAKO Jun26 Jun02 Apr25     (lynch bri)TORRES A 119 6.00 7% 12.40    
  (by YOSHIDA out of PERFECT STEP by IFFRAAJ)
9  DEAR SCARLETT Jun18         (murphy conor)LANDEROS CHRIS 124 15.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of BUTTERNUT BLOOMERS by CURLIN)
10  WINE AND WAVES Jul20 Jun12 May18 Apr13 Mar03 (hancock jo)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 6.00    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of MALIBU PIER by MALIBU MOON)
11  WHERE'S THE WINE Jul15 Jun08 Feb28     (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 119 5.00 42% 1.40    
  (by MITOLE out of AMARONE by QUALITY ROAD)
12  BAH HUMBUG         (davis chri)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of APPLE SNOW by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
SCR  STAGE PRESENCE Jun28 May25       (kenneally )LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 4.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of MARQUEE by GOLD REGENT)
SCR  PRECISELY Jun11         (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 119 4.50    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of HIGH TECH by DATA LINK)
SCR  INNOCENT NYGHT Jun26 May25 Sep28 Aug23   (michael b)BEALMEAR C 112 10.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of INNOCENT LOVE by GRAND SLAM)
SCR  PRETTY SONG Nov18         (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of PRETTY FANCY by LEMON DROP KID)
 
ELP-4   08/05/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GAMETIME GLADIATOR Jul05 Jun15 May01 Mar16 Feb18 (camejo)LOPEZ EDUARDO 123 4.00 19% 4.30    
2  INTERLOCK EMPIRE Jul05 May23 May05 Apr13 Mar23 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 123 5.00    
3  DR KRINGLE Jul21 Jun29 Jun08 May23 Apr25 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 3.50 17% 4.70    
4  CAWKAB Jul09 Mar17 Jan07 Dec16 Nov03 (mckeever an)CONCEPCION AXEL 123 4.50    
5  FORGE IN FIRE May25 May01 Apr14 Feb21 Jun01 (bahena is)TORRES A 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  SCHIFTY'S HALOID Jan07 Dec28 Nov07 Oct19 Sep05 (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 123 8.00    
7  GOD OF WINE Jul05 May25 May01 Mar15 Feb22 (davis chri)CORRALES GERARDO 123 2.50 28% 2.60    
 
ELP-5   08/05/2024 4620ft DIRT RC2 FAST Mdn Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($44K) 2 ALL PT- 2:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HEDGE Jun13         (colebrook ben)GRAHAM J 119 3.00 9% 9.80    
2  BAYTOWN GUVNAH Jul21         (mcentee p)BEALMEAR C 112 15.00    
3  REB Jun19 May09       (fletcher ke)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  GALLO DE FUEGO Jul14         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 4.00 28% 2.60    
5  DIXIE DEVIL         (humphries thom)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
6  ABBI FEDE         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 15% 5.60    
7  BELIEVE IN DREAMS         (moquett e)BEJARANO R 119 10.00    
8  BOURBONATOR         (desormeaux)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 5% 17.30    
9  REMAINING NAMELESS Jul15         (jazdzewski)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
10  NOBLE SOUL         (williamson)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 15.00    
11  BOURBON STATE         (miller darri)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00    
12  KERNER         (ennis john)MONCADA IRVING 112 15.00    
 
ELP-6   08/05/2024 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOMER'S ODYSSEY Jul07         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 10.00 ★    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of CONQUEST DYNASTY by COURT VISION)
2  SKIP FACTOR         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of SUSIE'S DADDY by SCAT DADDY)
3  THUBOOT Jul07         (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of HAAFILAH by BERNARDINI)
4  AMERICAN VISION         (cox h)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 5.00 7% 13.70    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of DECEPTIVE VISION by A.P. INDY)
5  GIOCOSO Jul07 Jun20       (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 3.00 41% 1.50    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of NUTCRACKER SUITE by FASTNET ROCK)
6  BOY BOY         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of MISS CURLIN by CURLIN)
7  REPEAT BUSINESS         (brown c)GARCIA MARTIN 119 6.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of CHOI by BERNARDINI)
8  TURNBUCKLE Jul20 Jun19 May02 Apr05   (hancock dana)BEJARANO R 119 30.00    
  (by GLOBAL CAMPAIGN out of MOUNTAIN DOVE by POINT OF ENTRY)
9  MINARET STATION         (walden wi)TORRES A 119 12.00    
  (by INSTILLED REGARD out of BEAU RECALL by SIR PRANCEALOT)
10  MISSIONARY MAN         (mott riley)TORRES A 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of QUEBEC by INTO MISCHIEF)
11  MALEVAJE May30 Apr25       (seglin e)RIQUELME J 119 30.00    
  (by ACCELERATE out of REGAL SONG by NOBLE MISSION (GB))
12  COURAGEOUS CLAY Jul07         (medina robe)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 4.00 31% 2.30    
  (by CATHOLIC BOY out of SCATTERED THOUGHTS by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  BET ON BRET Jul14         (wismer glen)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 20.00    
  (by DIVISIDERO out of DRIFT AWAY by CONGRATS)
SCR  SHOGUN (IRE) Jul05         (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 6.00    
  (by BLAME out of SILVICULTURE by FORESTRY)
 
ELP-7   08/05/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 ALL PT- 3:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TUXEDO PARK May02 Apr10       (mcentee p)BEALMEAR C 112 10.00 32% 2.10    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of GREEN EYED CAT by TALE OF THE CAT)
SCR  FLOODLITES Jul13         (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 119 5.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of MORE MO FOR ME by UNCLE MO)
3  SEXAGENARIAN         (maker michae)TORRES A 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of WHATS YUR STORY by LIAISON)
SCR  CHASES MAGIC         (amoss tho)TORRES A 119 4.50    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of NARROW SEA by BODEMEISTER)
5  CYBERBEAST         (mason ingrid)BEJARANO R 119 10.00 ★    
  (by GLOBAL CAMPAIGN out of QUOTATION by CONGRATS)
6  CORRELATION         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of FRANDERELLA by HENNY HUGHES)
7  QUINTILLION (IRE)         (miller darrin)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
8  ZANDVOORT         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 3.00 45% 1.20    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of MELLONBROOK by DISCREET CAT)
9  STUNNING BRUNO         (jazdzews)RODRIGUEZ A 119 30.00    
  (by WORLD OF TROUBLE out of YOUNGNFLASHY by FLASHY BULL)
SCR  BIG MUCH         (casse w)CHUAN MARTIN 119 6.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of TRUST by BODEMEISTER)
11  HASTY FLYER         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of SPEED ON TAP by TAPIT)
 
ELP-8   08/05/2024 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($73K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NORISKIT NOBISCUIT Jun12 Feb17 Jan20 Nov10 Oct25 (murphy conor)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
2  ARMY GIRL Jun24 Feb23 Jan10 Dec21 Oct30 (wisner j)BEJARANO R 123 20.00    
3  CANDY BAR Jun28 May30 Apr20 Mar21 Feb10 (calhoun wi)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 10.00    
4  BIG DIG Jun26 Jun15 May14 Apr21 Mar21 (bahena i)RODRIGUEZ A 123 20.00    
5  ETNA'S NAPPER Jul02 Jun06 Feb09 Aug04 Jun24 (sancal murat)GRAHAM J 123 15.00    
6  DIVINE (IRE) Apr04 Jan13 Nov05 Aug11   (mackey wa)BEALMEAR C 116 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  AGRA Jun08 May05 Jan12 Dec16 Nov05 (mott william)TORRES A 118 2.00 52% 0.90    
8  MS QUALITY CONTROL Jun19 May01 Mar09 Feb17 Jan27 (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 6.00 10% 8.70    
9  QUIETLY Jul07 May25       (mott riley)ACHARD ALEX 118 6.00    
10  CLARET BERET Jul04 May25 Apr21 Mar23   (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 118 6.00 13% 6.50    
11  PEIGNOIR Jul05 Nov10 Oct15 Aug26 Jul31 (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  PARTY Feb10 Dec29 Nov04 Sep30 Jul15 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00    
SCR  GENETICS Jul16 Jun22 May25 Nov11 Oct13 (mott william)TORRES A 118 4.50    
 
ELP-9   08/05/2024 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($73K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COMMITTEE OF ONE Jul04 Jun16 May17 Apr07 Mar15 (asmussen stev)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00 ★    
2  B SUDD Jun28 May30 May12 Apr12 Feb23 (von hemel )LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  GLACIAL POWER Jun27 Jun05 May12 Mar06 Jul08 (camejo jos)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 11% 8.10    
4  DEMOLITION DUKE Jun30 May17 Apr21 Mar24 Jun17 (walsh bre)TORRES A 122 2.00 58% 0.70    
5  BACKSIDE BUZZ Jun29 May16 Apr20 Apr07 Mar22 (atras rob)TORRES A 122 15.00    
6  JAMMIN JUSTICE Jun18 May29 May08 Apr24   (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 118 30.00    
7  CHITWOOD May01 Mar08 Feb09 Jan05 Nov18 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 20.00    
8  TEXAS TOWN Feb11 Dec08       (hartma)LOPEZ EDUARDO 118 10.00    
SCR  TAGLIATELLE Jul13 Jun16 May25 May09 Apr12 (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
10  ARABIAN PRINCE Jul14 Oct25 Sep22 Sep13 Jul23 (barnett b)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 122 15.00    
11  FINSTER Aug08         (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 118 6.00 ★    
12  CHRYSO ALOGO Jul04 Jun20 May30 May12 Apr27 (vasquez german )LANERIE J 118 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.