Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Monday - July 22, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (1/6/3/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/3/8)-(1/6/3/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/3/8)-(1/6/3/8)-(1/6/3/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/6/3/8)-(1/6/2/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/6/3/8)-(1/6/2/7)-(3/4/8/1) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
ELP-2   WIN (1/6/2/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/2/7)-(1/6/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/2/7)-(1/6/2/7)-(1/6/2/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/6/2/7)-(3/4/8/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/6/2/7)-(3/4/8/1)-(6/7/2/8) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
ELP-3   WIN (3/4/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/4/8/1)-(3/4/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/4/8/1)-(3/4/8/1)-(3/4/8/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/4/8/1)-(6/7/2/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/4/8/1)-(6/7/2/8)-(8/4/5/1) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
ELP-4   WIN (6/7/2/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/7/2/8)-(6/7/2/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/7/2/8)-(6/7/2/8)-(6/7/2/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/7/2/8)-(8/4/5/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/7/2/8)-(8/4/5/1)-(8/10/5/4/3) 80 $0.50 $240 
ELP-5   WIN (8/4/5/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/4/5/1)-(8/4/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/4/5/1)-(8/4/5/1)-(8/4/5/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/4/5/1)-(8/10/5/4/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/4/5/1)-(8/10/5/4/3)-(9/3/11/8) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-6   WIN (8/10/5/4/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/10/5/4/3)-(8/10/5/4/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/10/5/4/3)-(8/10/5/4/3)-(8/10/5/4/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/10/5/4/3)-(9/3/11/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/10/5/4/3)-(9/3/11/8)-(4/6/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ELP-7   WIN (9/3/11/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/3/11/8)-(9/3/4/11/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (9/3/11/8)-(9/3/4/11/8)-(9/3/4/11/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (9/3/11/8)-(4/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (9/3/11/8)-(4/6/7)-(2/11/3/10/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ELP-8   WIN (4/6/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/7)-(4/6/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/7)-(4/6/7)-(4/6/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/6/7)-(2/11/3/10/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
ELP-9   WIN (2/11/3/10/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/11/3/10/6)-(2/11/3/10/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/11/3/10/6)-(2/11/3/10/6)-(2/11/3/10/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/22/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($19K) 3UP M/F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GRACE GIVEN Jul04 May31 Apr14 Mar08 Feb11 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 1.80 42% 1.40    
2  DAME MAUDE CHARDIN Jun27         (habeeb donald)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
3  ZIVA         (hughes by)BEALMEAR C 117 20.00 7% 13.10    
4  KISS ME KATIE Jul07 Aug09 Jul08     (ortiz a)TORRES A 124 6.00    
SCR  VIVIS IN FRONT Mar15 Feb29 Jan10 Dec20 Nov07 (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 15.00    
6  AMERICAN SPLENDOR Jul07 Jun16       (o'neill doug)ROMAN A 118 3.00 26% 2.80    
7  LADY ROBO Jun15 May28 Mar22 Mar07 Feb15 (holden dar)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 3.50    
8  CASINO ANNIE Jul07 Jun15 Mar27 Mar06 Feb15 (parker donald)LEBRON VICTOR 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  TAPWRIT WARRIOR Jun27 May30 May02 Mar15 Jan13 (vasquez )RODRIGUEZ A 118 30.00    
 
ELP-2   07/22/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($73K) 2 ALL PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DELIGHTFUL FLAME May16 Apr12       (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 117 1.80 38% 1.60    
SCR  DREAMAWAY Apr21         (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 117 1.80    
2  CATAMOUNT Jun30         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 2.50 10% 8.90    
3  SWEET MO B Jun26 Jun14 May19     (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00    
4  MONEYLINE Jun30 May14 Apr21     (caramori cai)TORRES A 120 10.00    
5  PURSE THIEF Jun19 May26       (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 5.00    
6  GOOD DIRECTIONS Jul08         (rice adam)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 4.50 31% 2.30    
7  LA MARINERA Jun30 May26 May14 Apr26   (fernandez k)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-3   07/22/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 F PT- 1:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHIRLEY ANN         (ortiz joh)TORRES A 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of HEY PAIGE by STAY THIRSTY)
2  ELECTRIFYING LADY         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 8.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of LA MILANESA by MR. GREELEY)
3  PAX AMERICANA         (lynch a)GRAHAM J 119 3.00 28% 2.60    
  (by WAR FRONT out of COEXISTENCE by VIOLENCE)
4  PONDERING         (walsh brendan )MACHADO LUAN 119 3.50 25% 3.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of ALWAYS THINKING by STREET SENSE)
5  BIG AIR         (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
  (by VEKOMA out of BOUND by JUMP START)
SCR  GIVE HER ANOTHER Jun26         (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of DALSAROS by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  POPPY THE PRINCESS         (newton troy)CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of ROCKET GIRL by UNCLE MO)
8  LUCY MCGEE Jun26         (lovell miche)TORRES A 119 10.00 21% 3.70    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of TIZANILLUSION by TIZWAY)
9  FUGITIVE STAR         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of VOTING AGREEMENT by MORE THAN READY)
 
ELP-4   07/22/2024 3630ft TURF RC2 FIRM Mdn Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($44K) 2 ALL PT- 2:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MR. COLOSSAL         (williamson)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 10.00    
2  HANK HILL         (brennan t)BEALMEAR C 112 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SAND CAST Jun22         (leonard george)ROMAN A 119 8.00    
4  RULOOKINFORRAYRAY         (drury thomas)MONCADA IRVING 109 6.00    
5  MENDELLO Jun22 Jun05 May14 Apr21   (demeritte l)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 30.00    
6  MO HAIR SAM Jun30 Jun13 May09 Apr21 Apr10 (hancock j)TORRES A 119 2.50 40% 1.50    
7  FIRMANTOWN         (colebrook ben)ACHARD ALEX 119 3.00 26% 2.90    
8  PREYATHOUSANDWORDS Jul13 Jun16       (veinot trudy)BEJARANO R 116 30.00 5% 19.00    
9  STASHU         (wainwright )ARRIETA REYNIER 119 30.00    
SCR  VERY BOLD         (harty eoin)MACHADO LUAN 119 3.50    
SCR  STUNNING BRUNO         (torres con)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
 
ELP-5   07/22/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($36K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EYES OF GOLD Apr13 Mar23 Feb07 Jan13 Dec14 (demeritte l)MIRANDA ROGELIO 123 30.00 5% 19.00    
2  PLEASESTOPTALKING Jun20 May30 May14 Apr17 Mar30 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00    
3  LADAN Jun12 May23 Apr07 Mar27 Mar01 (bogle fergus)BEJARANO R 123 12.00    
4  PAM PAM Jul04 Jun12 Apr07 Feb16 Nov19 (moquett ronal)CANNON DECLAN 120 10.00 27% 2.60    
5  BIRDIE ROSE Jun27 Jun15 May22 Mar23 Feb28 (salas felipe)MORALES EDGAR 123 6.00 7% 13.90    
6  WITS AND WAGERS Jun15 Nov12 Oct18 Sep03 Aug19 (oliver vic)CORRALES GERARDO 123 2.50    
7  MISS PEABODY Jun15 Sep13 Aug05 Jun24 Jun02 (newton troy)TORRES A 123 8.00    
8  EAST SHORE Nov12 Oct18 Jul22 Jun11 May25 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 123 2.00 37% 1.70    
 
ELP-6   07/22/2024 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CUPID'S THUNDER Jul02 Jun04 May01 Apr10   (hancock ja)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00    
  (by CUPID out of CATECAL by WARRIOR'S REWARD)
SCR  COFFEE TALK         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of DESERT LEGACY by TAPIT)
3  CASE ACE May18         (ennis joh)BEALMEAR C 112 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of LONGSTOCKING by INTO MISCHIEF)
4  ANYTIME ANYWHERE Jun24 May30       (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00 5% 18.20    
  (by HONOR CODE out of QUALITY LASS by CUTLASS)
5  HARD AS LIFE         (nihei mi)RODRIGUEZ A 119 8.00 6% 15.60    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of DREAMING AS ALWAYS by BROKEN VOW)
6  SPRINT OUT PASS         (medina ro)TORRES A 119 6.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of LIGHT OF A STAR by MUQTARIB)
7  SERGEANT CAPPS Jul02 Jun22 May30 May09 Apr26 (capps steve)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 10.00    
  (by WEST COAST out of PRIVATE ESTATE by PRIVATE TALK)
8  ART FAIR Jun20 May24       (casse mark)MACHADO LUAN 119 2.50 57% 0.80    
  (by MUNNINGS out of DEVIOUS CHARM by INTO MISCHIEF)
9  SPIRIT RAGS Jun19 May26 Apr26     (salas felip)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 30.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of OCTOBER BRIDE by BERNARDINI)
10  MIKA Jun14         (maker michae)TORRES A 119 5.00 7% 14.40    
  (by CATHOLIC BOY out of HISTORY SUPREME by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  NO MO MOOLAH         (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 4.50    
  (by UNCLE MO out of SEA SHADOW by JUMP START)
 
ELP-7   07/22/2024 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($76K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BACKGROUND Jun19 May18 May03 Jul15 Jun04 (puhich mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 30.00    
2  WINTERS LION Jan13 Dec29 Nov26 Nov03 Oct06 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00    
3  UNDERHILL'S TAB Jun07 May02 Mar30 Feb24 Jan01 (medina ro)TORRES A 122 4.50 16% 5.40    
4  RECKER POINT Jun09 May05 Apr13 Mar17 Mar07 (hartman chr)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 4.00 ★    
5  ETHEREAL ROAD Mar30 Mar02 Jan13 Nov25 Oct23 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 122 10.00    
6  FLOKI'S FLIGHT Jun29 May16 Aug19 Jul29 Jun25 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 122 6.00    
7  GILMORE Apr21 Mar02 Jan27 Dec23 Sep23 (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00    
8  CAN'T HUSH THIS Jun29 May03 Mar30 Mar02 Jan13 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
9  FORT WARREN Jun16 May03 Jun10 May19 Jan29 (kenneally )LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 3.00 54% 0.80    
SCR  FIFTY CENT DOLLARS May18 Mar07 Feb17 Dec08 Aug19 (delima e)MACHADO LUAN 122 20.00    
11  INVULNERABLE Jun16 Jan28 Dec31 Nov23 Feb25 (sharp joe)TORRES A 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-8   07/22/2024 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Twin Bridges Purse ($125K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  AMARETTI Jun26 May17 Apr24 Feb24 May20 (mott will)TORRES A 122 3.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of CARAMEL SNAP by SMART STRIKE)
2  ALTERED SHOT Jun23 May23 Dec07 Nov16 Sep30 (esquivel jesus)MACHADO LUAN 122 15.00    
  (by ALTERNATION out of WYN JYM by PROUD CITIZEN)
3  PISTOL Jun26 May26 Apr30 Apr06 Sep21 (van thom)MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of WILD BOUT TIFFANY by WILDCAT HEIR)
4  YOUR SO SILLEA Jun16 May24 Apr18 Nov11 Oct26 (sims phili)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 1.80 51% 1.00    
  (by LEA out of MISS E ON THE QT by E DUBAI)
5  AMERICAN BAND Jun16 May04 Mar30 Mar09 Jan12 (haran john)BURGOS ALBERTO 126 12.00    
  (by FLATTER out of PURIM'S DANCER by PURIM)
6  SWALL May18 Apr26 Mar16 Feb08 Nov26 (damato philip)GARCIA MARTIN 122 6.00 14% 6.10    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of CAT DANCER by STORM CAT)
7  SECRET STATEMENT Jun09 May19 May04 Nov24 Nov01 (baker james)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of CLOSING STATEMENT by BLAME)
SCR  NON VIOLENCE May27 Aug13 Jul23 Jun30 May25 (calhoun will)TORRES A 122 5.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of SINGAVICTORYSONG by HARD SPUN)
 
ELP-9   07/22/2024 5940ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FRENCH BREAD Jun20 Apr24 Mar16 Feb17 Dec28 (bicknell whit)LEBRON VICTOR 124 20.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
2  DASHMAN Dec23 Nov04 Sep29     (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00 22% 3.50    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of FLY BY by JOHAR)
3  REDEMPTION SPEIGHT Jun20 May30       (lobo h)ROMAN A 124 8.00 16% 5.40    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of GAS TOTAL by SULAMANI)
4  SON OF A MAN Jun10 May16       (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 124 30.00    
  (by CAN THE MAN out of LADY REDD by AFTERNOON DEELITES)
5  REMARKABLE MO Jun30 Jun13 Jun01 May04 Nov24 (brennan te)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 5.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of REMARKABLE MOON by LEMON DROP KID)
6  BOMB CYCLONE Jun20 Sep29       (molloy th)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of WOOD NOT by KISSIN KRIS)
7  AK SAR BEN DERBY Jun08 May18 Mar30 Dec08   (ortiz al)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of MENSA MEMBER by FLATTER)
8  AWOL Jun02         (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of AFLEETING LISA by AFLEET ALEX)
9  THE DOVER SPECTER Jun20 Apr13 Mar02 Jan20   (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 6.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of SPOOKY KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
10  CLOUDY HOLIDAY Jun16 May18 Apr24 Mar08 Feb09 (sharp joe)TORRES A 118 5.00 12% 7.10    
  (by CLOUD COMPUTING out of PATSY'S HOLIDAY by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
11  ENGLISH CHUNNEL Jun16         (catalano w)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 20% 4.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of INTERROGATION by KITTEN'S JOY)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.