Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - June 14, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (3/6/9/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/9/4)-(3/6/9/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/6/9/4)-(3/6/9/4)-(3/6/9/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/6/9/4)-(9/10/8/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/6/9/4)-(9/10/8/3)-(4/3/8/1) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-2   WIN (9/10/8/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/10/8/3)-(9/10/8/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/10/8/3)-(9/10/8/3)-(9/10/8/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/10/8/3)-(4/3/8/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (9/10/8/3)-(4/3/8/1)-(1/8) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-3   WIN (4/3/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/8/1)-(4/3/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/8/1)-(4/3/8/1)-(4/3/8/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/8/1)-(1/8) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/3/8/1)-(1/8)-(10/6/2/4) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-4   WIN (1/8) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/8)-(1/8/9) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (1/8)-(1/8/9)-(1/8/9) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (1/8)-(10/6/2/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (1/8)-(10/6/2/4)-(9/7/4) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-5   WIN (10/6/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/6/2/4)-(10/6/2/8/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/6/2/4)-(10/6/2/8/4)-(10/6/2/8/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (10/6/2/4)-(9/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (10/6/2/4)-(9/7/4)-(4/3/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-6   WIN (9/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/7/4)-(9/7/1/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/7/4)-(9/7/1/2/4)-(9/7/1/2/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (9/7/4)-(4/3/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (9/7/4)-(4/3/1)-(7/3/4/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-7   WIN (4/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/1)-(4/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/1)-(4/3/1)-(4/3/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/3/1)-(7/3/4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/3/1)-(7/3/4/2)-(6/2/11/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-8   WIN (7/3/4/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/4/2)-(7/3/4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/3/4/2)-(7/3/4/2)-(7/3/4/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/3/4/2)-(6/2/11/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-9   WIN (6/2/11/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/11/7)-(6/2/11/5/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/2/11/7)-(6/2/11/5/7)-(6/2/11/5/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   06/14/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 4UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HONEY RUN May19 Apr27 Apr07 Mar22 Feb11 (heitzman eric)LANERIE J 118 12.00    
SCR  ABITIBI Jun06 May17 Apr19 Mar27 Mar09 (esquivel j)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00    
3  SUMMER OF MISCHIEF May25 May03 Apr06 Mar02 Feb16 (calhoun w)TORRES A 118 3.00 29% 2.40    
4  SHIP IT Feb17 Jan11 Dec27 Nov24 Nov09 (esquivel jesus)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  RACEDAY ATTIRE Apr27 Nov18 Sep09 Aug17 Jul27 (childers)RODRIGUEZ A 118 20.00    
6  LITTLE BLAZE Apr27 Mar16 Mar01 Feb03 Dec31 (vaccarezza car)ORTIZ L 118 2.50 17% 5.00    
SCR  KYLE BEAUTY May17 Apr27 Mar10 Feb25 Jan06 (shirer mat)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 3.50    
8  SWEET AMY Oct19 Oct12 Sep18 Aug14 Jul05 (wismer s)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00    
9  ATLANTIC STRIKE Apr19 Mar27 Feb17 Feb07 Jan11 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00 17% 5.00    
 
CD-2   06/14/2024 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MISSED THE TURN May26         (ennis john)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
  (by THOUSAND WORDS out of JOE'S GIFT by SKY MESA)
2  DBOOK         (ortiz jo)SANTANA JR 119 12.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of SKY HIGH LADY by SKY MESA)
3  MIKA         (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CATHOLIC BOY out of HISTORY SUPREME by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  RUN MY CARD         (d'angelo jose )ORTIZ L 119 8.00    
  (by KHOZAN out of QUALITY LIGHT by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
5  LOUISIANA JESS         (calhoun wi)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00    
  (by VEKOMA out of MISS JAZEBEL by TALE OF THE CAT)
6  SWEET MO B May19         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of WINSLET by FIVE STAR DAY)
7  PIERCE ELEVATED         (hancock joh)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of ANNAPOLIS CLASS by GHOSTZAPPER)
8  PROBATIONER Jun05 May26       (caramori c)VILLARREAL OSCAR 109 15.00 13% 6.50    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of ON PROBATION by INTO MISCHIEF)
9  THE TONER Jun06 May09 Apr25     (caramori )TORRES A 119 3.50 34% 2.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of ULTIMATE SHOPPER by YES IT'S TRUE)
10  MUSIC MAN         (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 4.00 25% 2.90    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
 
CD-3   06/14/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NATORADE May26 Apr19 Mar24 Mar02 Apr02 (van tho)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  LEAD FOOT May26 May10 Apr27 Apr04 Mar15 (shorter )SANTANA JR 120 6.00    
3  SPURRIER May19 Apr13 Dec31 Dec10   (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 4.00 16% 5.40    
4  FLASH OF GENIUS May01 Mar09 Jun25 May28 Mar04 (pino mich)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 1.60 42% 1.40    
5  KING ME May16 Apr16 Dec01 Sep22 Jul22 (littlefield de)DOYLE SOPHIE 123 6.00    
6  DON'T STOP Mar08 Dec29 Dec14 Nov26 Nov07 (medina tomas)BEJARANO R 118 30.00    
7  CAMPTON May01 Mar22 Mar03 Jan27 Jan06 (asmussen )TORRES A 123 5.00    
8  LEND IT TEWMEY May19 Sep14 Aug18 Jul14 May04 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 123 4.50 11% 7.80    
 
CD-4   06/14/2024 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AURELIA'S MISCHIEF         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 47% 1.10    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of LADY AURELIA by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  LOVE'S THE ANSWER         (fletcher kevi)JIMENEZ ALBIN 119 20.00    
  (by CUPID out of SHE'SA TOUGH TIGER by TIGER RIDGE)
SCR  ELIZA VANCE         (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 6.00    
  (by MITOLE out of LE MOINE by CURLIN)
SCR  MELITTLEFROSTGIRL         (hancock joh)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 8.00    
  (by THOUSAND WORDS out of LIGHT FROST by FROSTED (GB))
5  LUCKY MAMA         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
6  KIMCHI CAT         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of WINTER DAWN by SKY MESA)
7  DERRY GIRL         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 12.00    
  (by HONOR A. P. out of JOYERIA by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
8  VIGGIEDAL         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 6.00 11% 8.00    
  (by VEKOMA out of MINNELLI by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
9  SOMETHINABOUTHER         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 12.00 ★    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of PHANTOM PROTON by GHOSTZAPPER)
SCR  ANAKARINA May17         (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00    
  (by VEKOMA out of TACIT APPROVAL by STOP THE MUSIC)
 
CD-5   06/14/2024 7920ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RELAMPAGO VERDE May24 Apr24 Mar21 Feb22 Oct13 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 124 8.00    
2  MY BOY TONY May29 Mar02 Jan27 Jul23 Apr08 (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  MIKEALICIOUS Apr26 Mar23 Feb24 Dec31 Dec09 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00    
4  NUMERO DIX (GB) Feb15 Jan14 Nov19 Sep29 Aug24 (caramori cai)TORRES A 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  HAWKS CREEK May12 Apr26 Feb17 Feb03 Jan07 (desormeaux)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 20.00    
6  VIVA LA RED May23 Apr24 Mar30 Mar02 Jan27 (biancone )BEALMEAR C 112 4.00 6% 15.30    
7  NOW AND LATER Apr17 Feb02 Jul01 Jun16 May04 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 124 8.00    
8  EL MATADOR May11 Apr05 Mar07 Feb04 Jan10 (maker michael )ORTIZ L 118 6.00 ★    
9  MAXIMUM CAPACITY Apr25 Mar08 Jan20 Jan01 Dec03 (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 118 20.00    
10  SGT. PEPPER Apr25 Feb08 Jan11 May07 Mar31 (pletcher t)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 1.60 68% 0.50    
SCR  INDIAN GULCH May05 Feb17 Nov16 Oct10 Jul18 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 124 4.00    
 
CD-6   06/14/2024 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRAYING         (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 ★    
  (by VEKOMA out of PRAY FOR LESLIE by BERNARDINI)
2  TROUBLER         (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 6.00 ★    
  (by INSTAGRAND out of WICKEDLY by MR. GREELEY)
3  STELLAR ASSET         (hamm timot)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of WICKED OBSESSION by TAPIT)
4  DREAMGIRL         (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of BOX OFFICE SMASH by GERI)
5  ONE HAPPY ISLAND         (kordenbrock mat)LANERIE J 119 12.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of FULL SWING by VERRAZANO)
6  TOODLE LOO         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 6.00    
  (by ISOTHERM out of SANDY'S SONG by FIRST SAMURAI)
7  BOUTWELL TIME         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 3.50 25% 3.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of DEL MAR MAY by JIMMY CREED)
8  SPUN CANDY         (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of SUGAR PLUM FAIRY by DROSSELMEYER)
9  FLIP FLOPS Apr26         (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 3.00 51% 1.00    
  (by WAR OF WILL out of SANDAL by MUNNINGS)
10  MARIPOSA DE PISTA May22 May03 Apr26     (pinzon maria)AYALA ISAIAS 119 30.00    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of MISS UNBRIDLED CAT by BROKEN VOW)
 
CD-7   06/14/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOLIDIFY Jun02 May10 Apr14 Mar22 Feb28 (cano mu)TORRES A 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
2  ON YOUR MARK Mar20 Feb25 Mar16 Sep14 Aug18 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50    
3  MONEY RUN May03 Mar24 Feb19 Jan06 Nov09 (asmussen )TORRES A 118 3.00 18% 4.40    
4  INFILTRATOR May25 Mar29 Feb24 Jan27 Dec30 (milligan )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.50 33% 2.00    
5  GO WEST May16 Mar14 Feb04 Jan19 Nov26 (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 118 2.50    
6  AWESOME AARON May27 Apr18 Apr05 Dec08 Nov23 (green troy)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00    
 
CD-8   06/14/2024 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CONFIDENCE GAME May11 Jan20 Dec23 Nov04 Oct21 (desormeaux)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00    
2  LET MY PEOPLE GO Apr19 Apr06 Dec30 Dec15 Nov12 (oliver vic)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  AMBIVALENT Apr19 Mar20 Feb25 Jan28 Sep17 (forster t)LANERIE J 123 3.50 27% 2.70    
4  ANTARES May06 Mar22 Mar09 Jan27 Dec30 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 8.00 7% 14.10    
5  FRONT RUN THE FED May04 Apr06 Dec30 Nov25 Sep09 (caramori ca)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 6.00    
6  REMUDA Oct08 Aug05 Jun16 Apr16 Jan15 (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 121 4.00    
7  JUST MIGHT May24 Apr19 Feb17 Jan20 Dec23 (lovell miche)TORRES A 123 2.00 41% 1.40    
8  CONDEMN May24 Apr25 Mar22 Feb03 Dec30 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00    
SCR  RYVIT Jun08 May24 Apr13 Mar16 Feb23 (asmussen )TORRES A 121 3.00    
SCR  CANDY MAN ROCKET May04 Mar24 Feb24 Jul01 May13 (mott i)ORTIZ L 121 12.00    
SCR  BANGO May02 Nov04 Oct06 Sep16 Jul01 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50    
SCR  EYE WITNESS Apr25 Mar09 Oct07 Aug13 May20 (caramori caio)ORTIZ L 121 12.00    
 
CD-9   06/14/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHE'S MAGIC Jun01 May11 Nov12 Sep21 Aug26 (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 6.00    
2  MO SENSE Apr30 Mar20 Jan27 Nov25 Oct25 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 22% 3.50    
3  TRES CHIC (ARG) Apr11 Mar27 Feb22 Jan06 Dec14 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 124 8.00    
4  LIL TOWN SIS May19 Apr19 Mar21 Mar09 Feb17 (asmussen )TORRES A 124 6.00    
5  TRANSPARENCY Apr30 Mar23 Jun18 May21 Mar08 (sweezey ken)CANNON DECLAN 124 5.00 ★    
6  CRYSTAL SYMPHONY May16 Apr17 Jan25 Dec13 Aug13 (sims phili)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 36% 1.80    
7  UNSTABLE PRINCESS May05 Apr19 Mar10 Jan13 Nov26 (santamaria ca)GARCIA MARTIN 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
8  CORKAGE FEE Apr30 Apr05 Feb10 Jan10 Nov22 (mcgee paul)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
9  I GOTTA BOLT May11 Apr17 Mar20 Feb23 Feb07 (hancock a)ORTIZ L 124 12.00    
SCR  JUST LIKE YOU May16 Apr27 Feb03 Jan17   (gorostieta ci)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 118 10.00    
11  CUMBERLAND FALLS Apr19 Mar15 Oct07 Sep15 Sep02 (sweezey kent)MACHADO LUAN 124 12.00 12% 7.30    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.