Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - May 19, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (6) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (6)-(6/5) 1 $1.00 $1.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6)-(1/6/8/7) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (6)-(1/6/8/7)-(1/7/2/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-2   WIN (1/6/8/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/8/7)-(1/6/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/8/7)-(1/6/8/7)-(1/6/8/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/6/8/7)-(1/7/2/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/6/8/7)-(1/7/2/3)-(4/3/1/7) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-3   WIN (1/7/2/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/7/2/3)-(1/7/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/2/3)-(1/7/2/3)-(1/7/2/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/7/2/3)-(4/3/1/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/7/2/3)-(4/3/1/7)-(4/6/5/3) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-4   WIN (4/3/1/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/1/7)-(4/3/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/1/7)-(4/3/1/7)-(4/3/1/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/1/7)-(4/6/5/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/3/1/7)-(4/6/5/3)-(3/2/5/8) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-5   WIN (4/6/5/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/6/5/3)-(4/6/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/6/5/3)-(4/6/5/3)-(4/6/5/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/6/5/3)-(3/2/5/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/6/5/3)-(3/2/5/8)-(4/3/10/5) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-6   WIN (3/2/5/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/2/5/8)-(3/2/5/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/2/5/8)-(3/2/5/8)-(3/2/5/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/2/5/8)-(4/3/10/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/2/5/8)-(4/3/10/5)-(8/10/4/5) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-7   WIN (4/3/10/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/10/5)-(4/3/10/5/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/3/10/5)-(4/3/10/5/8)-(4/3/10/5/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (4/3/10/5)-(8/10/4/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/3/10/5)-(8/10/4/5)-(5/6/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-8   WIN (8/10/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/10/4/5)-(8/10/4/7/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (8/10/4/5)-(8/10/4/7/5)-(8/10/4/7/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (8/10/4/5)-(5/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-9   WIN (5/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/2)-(5/6/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/6/2)-(5/6/2)-(5/6/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/19/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($39K) 4UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COINMAKER Mar21 Feb22 Jan27 Jan04 Sep09 (heitzman e)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 20.00    
SCR  LA TOURISTA Mar13 Jan11 Dec06 Nov18 Oct01 (pino michae)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 2.00    
3  HONEY RUN Apr27 Apr07 Mar22 Feb11 Jan27 (vance d)LANERIE J 118 4.50    
SCR  THE SWEATY FOX Apr20 Mar02 Jan21 Jan03 Dec20 (morey william )MACHADO LUAN 118 3.50    
5  HOPE OVER FEAR Mar15 Feb10 Jan17 Dec30 Nov18 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00 ★    
6  IT'SFIFTYSHADETIME Apr26 Apr07 Feb22 Jan27 Dec30 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 2.50 45% 1.20    
 
CD-2   05/19/2024 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COST OF WAR         (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 3.00 37% 1.70    
  (by WAR OF WILL out of COST by PULPIT)
2  SLANDEROUS May02         (mccutche)SANTANA JR 116 12.00    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of SEVEN ARROWS by SUPER SAVER)
3  VINEGAR HILL Apr05         (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 6.00    
  (by FROSTED out of CORONADO ROSE by CORONADO'S QUEST)
4  ACE IT May05 Apr10       (chapman j)CORREA L 119 4.00    
  (by CONNECT out of CLEVER BEAUTY by INDIAN CHARLIE)
5  SWEET MO B         (ennis john)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 10.00    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of WINSLET by FIVE STAR DAY)
6  INDIGO WIND May01 Apr05       (chapman k)SAEZ LUIS 119 2.50 13% 6.60    
  (by LAOBAN out of INDIGO GIN by LEMON DROP KID)
7  EL DANDI Apr05         (acevedo isra)CALLEJA ANDRES 112 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of TEST OF TIME by CAPOTE)
8  CHADO Apr25 Apr05       (mccutchen jas)CANNON DECLAN 119 5.00 9% 9.70    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of ORIOLE by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
 
CD-3   05/19/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPYCRAFT Apr27 Apr12 Mar15 Feb16 Jan31 (garcia genaro)BEJARANO R 118 2.00 39% 1.60    
2  TROPIC STORM May03 Mar22 Feb23 Feb03 Jan13 (shirer a)ASHTON GAVIN 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  UPSTRIKER May03 Mar22 Feb23 Nov22 Oct19 (santamari)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  RAM Apr12 Mar17 Feb23 Jan27 Sep02 (casse no)SANTANA JR 120 3.00    
5  MAN ON THE MOON Apr20 Apr05 Mar15 Feb17 Feb02 (vance thom)ASMUSSEN J 118 10.00    
6  ONE COOL DUDE Mar06 Feb15 Nov05 Oct11 Sep22 (blair jord)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 10.00    
7  SAMURAI PRINCE Apr19 Mar22 Nov05 Sep29 Aug27 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 30% 2.30    
 
CD-4   05/19/2024 2970ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($54K) 2 F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DELICATE         (mccutchen jas)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00 8% 11.30    
SCR  STIRRING UP DUST         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 2.50    
3  INDY'S UNIVERSE         (davis christop)ORTIZ L 119 3.50 13% 6.50    
4  GLAMOURCENTS         (lightner m)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 44% 1.30    
5  VONGOLE         (gutierrez f)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 8.00    
SCR  EMY May02         (torres eric)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 15.00    
7  POUNDS IN TOWN May02 Apr07       (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  BAYTOWN STORM May13 Apr26 Apr11     (mcentee p)BEALMEAR C 112 12.00    
9  SEVILLA         (guti)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 8.00    
 
CD-5   05/19/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($63K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROCKAWAY REEF         (baker james)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00    
SCR  VINO VERITAS Apr27 Apr07       (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00    
3  E B ZOOM BABY         (gutierrez f)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
4  PELICAN LANE Aug01 Jun25 May20 Jan07   (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 124 2.50 46% 1.20    
5  MIDWAY VOW Mar28         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 5.00 12% 7.50    
6  GRAYTON Apr18         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 8.00 19% 4.40    
7  CHIC N DA WADDA         (toye li)CALLEJA ANDRES 111 15.00    
8  CLOSING PRAYER Mar28 Feb28       (baker james)ROCCO S 118 12.00    
 
CD-6   05/19/2024 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPURRIER Apr13 Dec31 Dec10     (moquett )SANTANA JR 123 2.50    
2  EXPRESS CRUISER Apr27 Apr04 Feb09 Jan27 Jan06 (garcia genaro)BEJARANO R 118 4.00 21% 3.70    
3  CANAVALL May11 Apr21 Mar10 Jan27 Jan06 (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 1.80 27% 2.70    
4  SAINT ROCCO May01 Mar20 Feb09 Jun30 Jun10 (delacruz meji)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
5  LEND IT TEWMEY Sep14 Aug18 Jul14 May04 Jul01 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 123 8.00 18% 4.60    
6  LAZARUS May01 Sep27 Sep07 Jun18 Jun03 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 123 10.00    
7  FIRE WIRE Apr23 Apr06 Mar23 Feb14 Feb01 (roberson )BEALMEAR C 113 20.00    
8  MAKE IT SPEND IT Apr26 Feb11 Oct12 Aug29 Aug12 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-7   05/19/2024 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MR SCATTER Mar07 Jan12 Dec08     (correas )SANTANA JR 118 20.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of ALLYALLYINCOMEFREE by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
2  ACCONA Apr10 Feb23       (camejo jose)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 20.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of DESERT LEGACY by TAPIT)
3  CARNITINE Apr06         (kenneally eddi)ORTIZ L 118 5.00 29% 2.40    
  (by UNCLE MO out of TAURINE by FLATTER)
4  REYNOLDS CHANNEL Apr18 Mar16 Aug12     (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 118 1.20 30% 2.40    
  (by WEST COAST out of NOELLE'S MISCHIEF by INTO MISCHIEF)
5  GLENBROOK GERRY Apr18 Sep24 Sep02 Jul27   (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of URQUIA by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  TAPIT FOR THE WIN May02 Mar30       (danner ke)TORRES A 118 15.00    
  (by TAPIT out of BET SHE WINS by FIRST SAMURAI)
7  HOUSE UNITED May04 Mar23       (stall alb)LEPAROUX R 118 5.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of BLIP N' TH BYE by TALE OF EKATI)
8  ASK ARTHUR Apr06 Feb23 Feb09 Dec22   (wismer s)CEDILLO ABEL 118 12.00 ★    
  (by UNIFIED out of HEART OF MIDWAY by STEVIE WONDERBOY)
9  CODE WORD Feb24         (lukas wa)ASMUSSEN J 118 20.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of CATIGO by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
10  YELL COUNTY Apr13 Mar09 Feb24 Nov26 Oct18 (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 17% 4.80    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of FEATHERBED by SMART STRIKE)
 
CD-8   05/19/2024 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HONEY HAULER May06 Mar15 Feb24 Dec07 Oct25 (wismer s)CEDILLO ABEL 124 12.00    
2  SECRET STATEMENT May04 Nov24 Nov01 Oct11 Sep21 (baker jam)LEPAROUX R 122 12.00    
3  JUSTIFIABLE BELLE Apr07 Aug19 Jun22 Apr15 Mar11 (wilkes r)SAEZ LUIS 124 10.00    
4  BEST PERFORMER Feb22 Jan15 Dec21 Nov15 Oct01 (sharp joe)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 5.00 5% 19.00    
5  ZAWISH May04 Nov22 Nov03 Oct07 Sep10 (pitts hele)HERNANDEZ J 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  EMBRACE ME May03 Apr13 Mar09 Feb10 Nov12 (rutledge )TORRES A 122 15.00    
7  FLATTER ME SILLY Apr21 Mar23 Feb22 Jul01 Apr26 (pessin l)LANERIE J 122 8.00 ★    
8  GLITTERING LIGHTS (GB) Apr20         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00 66% 0.50    
9  WONDERFULL LADY (FR) Sep10 Aug06 Jul01 May29 Apr14 (walsh brenda)GEROUX FLORENT 122 20.00    
10  QUALITY STAR Apr20 Dec07 Oct07 Sep10 May27 (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 122 4.00 7% 13.50    
SCR  MARKSMAN QUEEN (GB) Mar23 Feb24 Dec30     (motion graha)ORTIZ L 122 5.00    
SCR  STEEL RACER Mar27 Feb22 Feb11 Jan18 Dec22 (esquivel jesus)ORTIZ L 122 3.50    
SCR  SUNNY ISLE BEACH Apr30 Mar22 Jan31 Jan01 May05 (shirer ma)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 4.00    
 
CD-9   05/19/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LIL TOWN SIS Apr19 Mar21 Mar09 Feb17 Feb04 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 123 3.50    
2  ROCKABILLIE Apr23 Feb21 Jan25 Dec22 Dec02 (garcia ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BUSINESS AS USUAL Apr27 Mar22 Mar07 Feb11 Jan12 (shorter a)TORRES A 118 10.00    
4  OATH OF ALLEGIANCE Aug11 May19 Feb17 Jan20 Dec31 (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 3.00    
5  R QUEEN CANDY Feb21 Feb03 Jan03     (bogle fergus)CANNON DECLAN 118 5.00 33% 2.00    
6  WEST COAST HARBOR May02 Apr20 Mar07 Feb19   (puhich mike)ELLIOTT JANE 118 4.50 17% 4.80    
7  VERY WEALTHY Apr25 Mar06 Mar13 Dec29 Dec08 (lucas wayne)BEJARANO R 123 15.00    
SCR  ESME May11 Mar30 Mar13 Feb23 Feb08 (king l)MOJICA JR 123 4.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.