Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Thursday - November 09, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (1/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/4)-(1/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (1/4)-(4/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/4)-(4/1/3)-(1/2/4) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-2   WIN (4/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/3)-(4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/3)-(1/2/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/1/3)-(1/2/4)-(6/5/3) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-3   WIN (1/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/4)-(1/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/4)-(1/2/4)-(1/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/4)-(6/5/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/2/4)-(6/5/3)-(9/8/3/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-4   WIN (6/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/3)-(6/5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/3)-(6/5/3)-(6/5/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/3)-(9/8/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/5/3)-(9/8/3/7)-(11/3/8/9) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-5   WIN (9/8/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/8/3/7)-(9/8/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/8/3/7)-(9/8/3/7)-(9/8/3/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/8/3/7)-(11/3/8/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (9/8/3/7)-(11/3/8/9)-(5/2/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-6   WIN (11/3/8/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (11/3/8/9)-(11/3/8/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (11/3/8/9)-(11/3/8/9)-(11/3/8/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (11/3/8/9)-(5/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (11/3/8/9)-(5/2/4)-(6/2/4/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-7   WIN (5/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/4)-(5/2/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/2/4)-(5/2/1/4)-(5/2/1/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/2/4)-(6/2/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/2/4)-(6/2/4/5)-(6/10/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-8   WIN (6/2/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/4/5)-(6/2/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/4/5)-(6/2/4/5)-(6/2/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/2/4/5)-(6/10/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
AQU-9   WIN (6/10/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/10/2)-(6/10/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/10/2)-(6/10/2)-(6/10/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   11/09/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT-12:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOLCE VELOCE         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 1.80 41% 1.40    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of TIZ MY LOVE by TIZ WONDERFUL)
2  WALK WITH ME         (duggan d)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 5.00    
  (by CENTRAL BANKER out of MIGHT BE by POSSE)
SCR  CAROL T Oct22 Sep23 Sep01     (jimenez l)ORTIZ L 119 3.00    
  (by FROSTED out of STAGE LUCK by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
4  CALL HER BLUFF Oct01 Sep01 Aug09     (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 119 3.50 35% 1.80    
  (by AUDIBLE out of MINE AS WELL by MINESHAFT)
5  MANGIA         (donk david)FRANCO MANUEL 119 4.00    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of CILANTRO by DISTORTED HUMOR)
6  TONE OF SILENCE         (sciacca gary)DAVIS KATIE 119 12.00    
  (by TONALIST out of TRUMPIT by SUPER SAVER)
 
AQU-2   11/09/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($45K) 3UP M/F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIM Oct06 Sep03 Aug12 Jul15 Jun16 (dutrow richar)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.00 10% 8.80    
2  BIG HAZEL Oct19 Aug11 Jul26 Jun25 Jun16 (donk david)DAVIS DYLAN 120 4.50    
3  DOLCE SERA Oct08 Sep22 Jul30 Jun01 May20 (delauro edward )CARMOUCHE K 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  SHE'S AWESOME Oct08 Sep20 Jun12 May13 Apr21 (klesaris steve)ORTIZ L 122 2.50 62% 0.60    
5  REBEL CONSORT Oct06 Sep16 Sep06 Aug24 Aug03 (werneth rober)FUENTES MARIO 120 20.00    
6  LA GROTTE Oct06 Mar17 Feb19 Jan15 Dec04 (morley thoma)CASTELLANO J 120 6.00    
7  HARLAN'S BOND Oct08 Sep14 Aug09 Jul27 Jul03 (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 4.50    
 
AQU-3   11/09/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OPPORTUNITY SET Oct15 Sep14 Aug04 Mar03 Dec15 (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 124 1.80 58% 0.70    
2  MOTIVO Oct05 Aug26 Jul21 May25 Apr30 (dutrow r)GOMEZ ANTONIO 121 6.00 18% 4.70    
3  GOLDEN PURCHASE Nov02 Oct05 Aug17 Jul19 Jul04 (jones)HERNANDEZ OMAR 124 30.00    
4  LOUIE'S HEAT Oct05         (walder r)CANCEL ERIC 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  TESTA DURA Oct05 Sep22 Aug31 Oct22 Sep22 (chichakly amira)RUIZ ELISEO 116 30.00    
6  UNION TAP Jul19 Jun18 Apr15 Mar18   (kimmel)MARAGH RAMSAY 121 10.00    
SCR  BARGAINING POWER Oct05 Aug17 Oct09 Sep10   (rice linda)ORTIZ L 124 2.50    
8  I LOVE CARA Nov02 Aug17       (barrera oscar)OLVER MADISON 116 15.00    
SCR  CITIZEN MACK Mar18 Feb03 Aug13 Jul21   (englehart je)HARKIE K 124 3.50    
 
AQU-4   11/09/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($16K) Purse ($37K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FREUDIAN Sep22 Aug31 Aug12 Jun17 Jun11 (falcone rober)OLVER MADISON 116 4.50    
SCR  APRIL ANTICS Oct29 Sep24 Aug23 Jul26 Jul03 (kantarmaci me)FRANCO MANUEL 123 3.00    
3  MARIAH'S FORTUNE Oct06 Jul20 Jul04 May26 Apr27 (toscano john )SILVERA RUBEN 121 4.00 12% 7.20    
4  VEGAS WEEKEND Oct15 Aug16 May11 Apr21 Mar24 (martin car)RIVERA R 116 6.00    
5  RUN DEVIL Sep28 Aug25 Aug03 Jun02 May11 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 121 4.00 12% 7.10    
6  SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN Oct15 Oct06 Aug16 Aug03 Jun16 (noda orlando)DAVIS DYLAN 121 3.50 41% 1.40    
7  TRIPLE P Oct15 Oct07 Aug24 Jul28 Jul09 (jones)HERNANDEZ OMAR 121 30.00    
8  GRINGOTTS Oct15 Aug16 Jul27 Jun22 Jun02 (younghans w)MCCARTHY TREVOR 121 20.00    
 
AQU-5   11/09/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($36K) 2 F PT- 2:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MASTERY'S SECRET Sep15 Aug24       (barrera osca)CASTILLO ISAAC 119 20.00    
2  WISE CONVERSATION Oct01 Sep01 Jul09     (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 119 6.00    
3  GOING FOR GLORY Oct21         (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 6.00 12% 7.60    
4  CLASSIC DIVA Sep07         (duggan dav)RIVERA R 114 10.00    
5  CARA'S GIRL Oct01         (friedman mitche)RUIZ ELISEO 114 15.00    
6  MOTHER MARY Sep15 Sep01       (brown r)LUZZI J 119 10.00    
7  SHE'S A LAKER Jul29 Jul15       (david carlos )OLVER MADISON 114 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  NEEDED Sep15 Jul26       (morley thoma)CASTELLANO J 119 1.60 12% 7.50    
9  NECESSARYANDPROPER Oct01         (dutrow)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 3.00 49% 1.00    
 
AQU-6   11/09/2023 3960ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($85K) 2 ALL PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TYPHOON FURY Oct15 Sep02       (weaver georg)CASTELLANO J 119 4.00    
  (by MITOLE out of TIZ RAE ANNA by TIZ WONDERFUL)
2  BOURBON OUTLAW Oct15         (hennig mark)ORTIZ L 119 12.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of STAR OF THE EAST by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
3  OCALA ROCKET Sep02         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 2.00 17% 4.80    
  (by HARD SPUN out of MINE ALL MINE by BELONG TO ME)
4  SUMMER IN ADRIANE         (morley thomas)FRANCO MANUEL 119 10.00    
  (by SUMMER FRONT out of ROBI JO by LEMON DROP KID)
SCR  DUNE ROAD         (martin carl)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 12.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of CLOSING RANGE by AFTER MARKET)
SCR  MIGRATORY Sep22         (antonacci phili)CARMOUCHE K 119 15.00    
  (by CURLIN out of HOUTZEN by I AM INVINCIBLE)
SCR  FRATELLINO Sep21         (sanchez-pinero )RUIZ ELISEO 114 30.00    
  (by WAR DANCER out of KIMBERLY JEAN by MORE THAN READY)
8  AIR INVASION         (clement christo)DAVIS DYLAN 119 3.50 11% 7.70    
  (by AIR FORCE BLUE out of CURLS IN PLACE by CURLIN)
9  SOUNDS LIKE FUN         (pregman john )SILVERA RUBEN 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FUNTASTIC out of MISSISSIPPI SOUND by UNION RAGS)
10  HAVE YOU HEARD Oct21         (brown bruc)RIVERA R 114 6.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of FULL MOON FROLIC by VINDICATION)
11  REVEREND MOON Sep22 Sep01 Aug12     (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 119 2.50 43% 1.30    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of GRAND MOON by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  FINANCIAL DISTRICT Sep22 Sep07       (sanchez-pin)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 20.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of ONE LOOK by OPS SMILE (BRZ))
SCR  GAME MISCONDUCT Oct13 Aug10 Jul09     (delauro )GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 20.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of DANALAKE by FRIENDS LAKE)
SCR  SMOKEY SMOKEY Oct20 Sep24 Sep03 Aug12   (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 119 8.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of WEAPONRY by WAR FRONT)
SCR  ALEAH ALEAH Oct21 Sep14       (ryerson t)RIDER TBA 119 4.00    
  (by MASTERY out of DILLY by FIRST SAMURAI)
 
AQU-7   11/09/2023 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1A  COLONEL VARGO Sep17 Aug26 Jul23 Jul08 Jun23 (jacobson davi)FRANCO MANUEL 120 5.00 ★    
SCR  KANT BEAT THE ROCK Nov02 Jul04 May13 May05 Apr02 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 122 5.00    
2  VODKA MARDINI Oct13 Feb02 Jan08 Dec15 Nov18 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 122 3.50 19% 4.20    
SCR  SAINTHOODFORBRIAN Oct28 Oct05 Sep13 Aug03 Jul14 (klesaris steve)ROSARIO JOEL 122 6.00    
4  MAGICAL WAYS Oct21 Oct15 Aug10 Jul03 May13 (sells rachel)DAVIS DYLAN 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  AMERICAN LAW Oct06 Sep16 Sep01 Jul22 Jun10 (brown bruce )CASTELLANO J 122 2.50 54% 0.90    
6  CLUBHOUSE Oct21 Sep15 Aug17 Aug09 Jul08 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 12.00    
7  EQUALJUSTICEFORALL Oct06 Sep03 Aug25 Jul14 Jun11 (milne joan)LUZZI J 122 50.00    
8  MASTERWORK Mar31 Mar19 Feb19     (klesaris robe)SILVERA RUBEN 120 15.00    
9  MEMPHIS Oct21 Aug12 Jul19 Jul01   (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 120 4.50    
 
AQU-8   11/09/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($80K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOLDEN ROCKET Oct13 Sep14 Aug27 Jul19 Jul04 (farro pa)GOMEZ ANTONIO 121 4.00    
2  WATERVILLE Oct13 Sep04 Aug12 Jul15 May29 (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 123 3.00 14% 5.90    
3  DREAM CENTRAL Oct19 Jun25 May26 Oct30 Sep07 (sciacca gary)FRANCO MANUEL 121 12.00    
4  MASTEROF THE TUNES Oct13 Sep17 Aug31 Jul19 Jun25 (lee joseph)ORTIZ L 121 2.50 11% 8.50    
5  SNOWY EVENING Oct27 Sep04 Aug16 Jul15 Jun25 (donk david)CASTELLANO J 120 4.00 6% 17.00    
6  AUTUMN GLORY Oct26 Jul02 May14     (clement christo)DAVIS DYLAN 121 5.00 47% 1.10    
7  MIA BEA STAR Oct05 Aug24 Jul13 Jul02 Jun01 (persau)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 20.00    
8  HOME FOR CHRISTMAS Aug31 Aug02 Jul19 Jun18 May26 (diprima gre)MCCARTHY TREVOR 121 20.00    
SCR  SWEETEST PRINCESS Oct13 Oct01 Sep04 Aug11 Jul15 (ferraro ja)RIVERA R 115 2.00    
SCR  CARBON Oct19 Oct08 Sep24 Aug09 Jul30 (younghans willi)CARMOUCHE K 123 6.00    
 
AQU-9   11/09/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($36K) 2 F PT- 4:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  YES SHE CAN         (rice kevin)DAVIS DYLAN 119 5.00    
2  CROMARTY         (donk david)RUIZ ELISEO 114 15.00 13% 6.70    
3  NOTAFRAIDTOCHARGE Oct20 Sep03       (rodriguez rud)OLVER MADISON 114 15.00    
SCR  SONG OF SOLOMINI Oct20 Oct01       (englehar)DAVIS A 119 30.00    
5  LONE STAR WILDCAT Oct20         (contessa c)DAVIS KATIE 119 10.00    
6  TAVIN Oct21 Sep28       (russell britt)FRANCO MANUEL 119 1.00 49% 1.00    
7  SPEIGHTS DANCE Nov02 Sep16       (duggan p)LUZZI J 119 15.00    
SCR  SANTAGATA         (dutrow r)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 8.00    
9  BORNFORGREATNESS Oct20 Sep15 Aug13     (hills timot)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 12.00    
10  CHANGE ORDER         (rodriguez )RIVERA R 114 8.00 16% 5.20    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.