Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Thistledown
Tuesday - October 10, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TDN-1   WIN (4/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/5)-(4/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    DD (4/5)-(3/7/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/5)-(3/7/5)-(1/11) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TDN-2   WIN (3/7/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/7/5)-(3/7/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/7/5)-(3/7/5)-(3/7/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/7/5)-(1/11)-(7/8/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TDN-3   WIN (1/11) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/11)-(1/5/4/11) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/11)-(1/5/4/11)-(1/5/4/11) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/11)-(7/8/3)-(6/4/2) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TDN-4   WIN (7/8/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/8/3)-(7/8/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/8/3)-(7/8/3)-(7/8/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (7/8/3)-(6/4/2)-(5/4) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TDN-5   WIN (6/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/2)-(6/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/2)-(6/4/2)-(6/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/4/2)-(5/4)-(6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
TDN-6   WIN (5/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/4)-(5/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    PK3 (5/4)-(6)-(7/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
TDN-7   WIN (6) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    DD (6)-(7/2/6) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
TDN-8   WIN (7/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/2/6)-(7/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/2/6)-(7/2/6)-(7/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TDN-1   10/10/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($16.3K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOURBON OVER ICE Sep27 Sep12 Aug16 Jul26 Jul11 (urieta johan)HALDAR J 123 8.00    
SCR  GUACO Sep05 Aug16 Jul26 Jul10 Jun20 (davis scoo)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 121 2.50    
3  ROCK ON KITTEN Sep10 Aug16 Aug01 Jul13 Jun15 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 114 4.50    
4  ICON Sep07 Jul31 Jul12 Jun24 Jun05 (rone mi)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 119 4.00 34% 2.00    
5  MONTAUK COVE Sep18 Aug16 Aug01 Jun24 Jun05 (trevin)BATISTA ALBERTO 119 10.00 26% 2.90    
6  THE COOKIE MAN Sep27 Sep07 Jul31 Jun24 Jun01 (ri)SALAZAR FERNANDO 119 6.00    
SCR  GEHRIG Sep27 Aug17 Jun10 May08 Apr04 (wolochuk dav)KEISER CHELSEY 121 3.00    
 
TDN-2   10/10/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($35.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MA MOO POWER Sep25 Sep11 Aug21 May20 Nov22 (hernandez r)SEVERINO VICTOR 119 15.00    
SCR  WATCHOUTFORWEAVER Oct02 Aug30 Jul27 Dec30 Nov30 (davis scoo)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 115 4.00    
3  KID RUSSELL Sep19 Aug14 Jul27 Jul13 Jun27 (juarez lorenzo)RIVERA R 119 2.00 33% 2.10    
4  LOTSA MATCHA May08 Mar20 Feb21 Jan19   (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 115 8.00    
5  UNBRIDLED CAUSE Sep19 Sep07 Aug17 Jul27 Jul12 (morales )FERNANDEZ R 121 8.00 16% 5.10    
6  A PRAYER FOR KIDS Sep27 Sep07 Aug23 Jul27 Jul10 (rettele ri)HERNANDEZ ALVARO 119 5.00    
7  TIER ONE Sep27 Aug23 Jul27 Jul06 Jun09 (fletcher jef)GONZALEZ KEVIN 115 2.50 24% 3.20    
 
TDN-3   10/10/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33.9K) 2 F PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NATIONAL DIAMOND         (hamm timothy)DIAZ I 118 3.00    
  (by NATIONAL FLAG out of THREE DIAMONDS by WILBURN)
1A  TIERNEY Sep21 Sep04       (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 118 3.00 77% 0.30    
  (by NATIONAL FLAG out of MINI MOM by PARENTS' REWARD)
SCR  NANCYFROMTHEBLOCK Sep04 Aug14 Jul24     (genovese)FERNANDEZ R 118 20.00    
  (by MEDAL COUNT out of LEMONESQUE by LEMON DROP KID)
3  VICTORIA COMMAND Sep21 Sep04       (huffman candace )AVILES YAN 118 8.00    
  (by FORT LARNED out of VICTORIA MIA by MASTER COMMAND)
4  RIVERS RUN RED         (szczepansk)SMITH DIOGDINABI 118 10.00 ★    
  (by RIVERS RUN DEEP out of PERFECTON PRINCESS by ECTON PARK)
5  VERTISALUTE         (rettele ri)HERNANDEZ ALVARO 118 6.00 ★    
  (by VERTIFORMER out of PRAYER SALUTE by MEADOW PRAYER)
6  PITY PURCHASE Sep21         (langley joshu)CEDILLO MAURO 113 20.00    
  (by MEDAL COUNT out of MILWAUKEE QUEEN by MILWAUKEE BREW)
SCR  MAYBETHEONE Sep21 Sep04 Aug14 Jul24   (lopez jacin)SEVERINO VICTOR 118 4.00    
  (by ONE SIDED out of MAYBEMAYBENOT by PHILADREAM)
SCR  SHE IS DYNAMIC Sep22 Sep08       (donjua)BATISTA ALBERTO 118 10.00    
  (by DYNAMIC RACER out of AMERIBELLE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  OH GLORIOUS DAY Sep25 Sep04       (vazquez ivan)HALDAR J 118 4.50    
  (by DYNAMIC RACER out of CATCH THE WAVES by PACIFIC WAVES)
10  PRIDE AND ATTITUDE Sep22 Sep08 Aug30     (cline r)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 118 15.00    
  (by WESTERN PRIDE out of WITH GRATITUDE by ECTON PARK)
11  MAC'S CAILIN         (szczepanski e)TOLEDO S 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ITSMYLUCKYDAY out of SHEFLEW by FLATTER)
 
TDN-4   10/10/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($17.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHLOES ANGEL Sep19 Aug30 Aug10 Aug02 Jul17 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 119 2.50    
SCR  NORTHERN JOURNEY Sep19 Aug31 Aug08 Jul17 May23 (calderon)FERNANDEZ R 119 15.00    
3  SISTER'S CREED Aug31 Jun26 Sep06     (faulkner rodn)TOLEDO S 119 15.00 12% 7.20    
4  GAIL'S DANCER Aug22 Jul19 Jun19 May29 Apr26 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 114 5.00    
5  PSYCHOANALYST May17 Oct12 Jun28 May24 May07 (faulkner r)HERNANDEZ ALVARO 119 20.00    
6  ST PATTY'S SONG Aug31 Aug14 Mar16 Jan16 Dec22 (meyers shane)GONZALEZ A 119 12.00    
7  THE DEVIL'S DREAM Sep07 Aug17 Aug03 Jul06 May30 (radosevich jeff)RIVERA R 121 1.80 50% 1.00    
8  NOT A WILD BRAT Aug21 Aug02 Jul19 Jun19 May22 (radosevich je)BRACHO A 119 3.50 14% 6.10    
 
TDN-5   10/10/2023 3630ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($21.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHADOW TRACER Sep27 Aug29 Jul26 Jun21 Jun07 (jackson r)RIVERA R 123 2.00    
2  OVER THE HILLS Sep17 Aug21 Jul31 Jun21 Jun05 (pizzurro )HERNANDEZ LUCIANO 119 5.00 7% 12.60    
3  LAUDA SPEED Sep05 Aug16 Jul12 Jun24 Jun05 (trevino steph)CEDILLO MAURO 114 8.00    
4  OTIS OTIS OTIS Sep28 Sep07 Aug21 Jul26 Jul04 (puhl kim)BOWEN ROCCO 119 1.80 30% 2.30    
5  TOMATO BILL Jul19 Jun26 Jun07 Nov15 Nov03 (londono j)HOUGHTON D 119 12.00    
6  WOODLAND WALK Sep26 Aug17 Jul10 Jun21 May08 (shanyfelt vale)GONZALEZ A 119 3.50 33% 2.10    
 
TDN-6   10/10/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($16.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PURDY PUMKIN Sep21 Aug29 Aug10 Feb14 Jan28 (dacosta jason)HOUGHTON D 123 12.00    
2  LEWD Sep07 Aug29 Aug07 Jul20 Jun21 (dacosta ja)HALLEDEEN ROBERT 123 3.50    
3  GRAY ROYALITY Sep07 Aug23 Jul17 Jun24 May22 (urieta johanna)BOWEN ROCCO 123 1.80    
4  YEGUITA QUEEN Sep28 Sep12 Aug31 Aug11 Apr14 (urieta johann)BRACHO A 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  DUNVEGAN DOLL Sep20 Sep06 Aug15 Jun19 May09 (rivera )RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 123 2.00 67% 0.50    
SCR  SPECIAL BEACH Sep25 Sep05 Jul27 Jun19 May31 (mahan p)PAUCAR E 123 4.50    
 
TDN-7   10/10/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($13.1K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LA KADENZA Sep21 Sep12 Aug23 Aug01   (lopez jacinto)CEDILLO MAURO 114 12.00    
2  SAUNTER Sep12 Aug23 Aug04 Jul18 Jun19 (sweeti)BATISTA ALBERTO 119 6.00    
SCR  SWAMP WITCH HADDY Aug23 Jul12 Jun10 May30 Jul18 (syed riaz)VELEZ J 123 20.00    
SCR  HEART OF THE BEAST Sep21 Aug12 Jul29 Jul01 Jun04 (mckanas j)DIAZ I 119 1.60    
SCR  ICY RAIN Sep27 Aug17 Aug01 Jul09 Jun26 (ratliff gobel)HOUGHTON D 123 15.00    
6  IMA SURE BET Aug23 Aug01 Jul12 Jun26 Jun19 (mo)SALAZAR FERNANDO 123 2.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  DUDE'S MIST DATE Sep21 Aug29 Aug07 Jul18 Jun26 (diehl cand)SMITH DIOGDINABI 119 3.50    
 
TDN-8   10/10/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($38.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  THE MIRACLE KIUT Mar21 Nov15 Oct31     (vecchio ca)HALLEDEEN ROBERT 115 2.00    
2  MIZZEN THE POINT Sep07 Aug29 Aug09 May17 Mar30 (maker micha)PETERSON FERRIN 121 3.50 14% 6.10    
3  SORORITY SISTER Sep07 Aug28 Aug02 Jul22 May25 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 119 10.00    
4  CROSSED UP Aug14 Jul17 Jun12 May10 Apr13 (zielinski ric)BARBARAN ERIK 119 3.00    
5  HIGHLY EXPLOSIVE Oct02 Sep11 Aug21 Aug08 Jul17 (romero o)FERNANDEZ R 123 8.00    
6  SHAKEURSKINNYLEGS Sep28 May25 May10 Apr27 Mar23 (skerrett jeffr)HOUGHTON D 115 10.00 12% 7.40    
7  OUT MY DEAR Sep11 Aug14 Jul17 Jun26 Dec30 (radosevich ju)BRACHO A 119 5.00 35% 1.90    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.