Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Monday - July 31, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-3   WIN (4/5/9/3/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/5/9/3/8)-(4/5/9/3/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/5/9/3/8)-(4/5/9/3/8)-(4/5/9/3/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    PK3 (4/5/9/3/8)-(4/1/8/6)-(8/3/2/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
ARP-4   WIN (4/1/8/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/1/8/6)-(4/1/8/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/1/8/6)-(4/1/8/6)-(4/1/8/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/1/8/6)-(8/3/2/4)-(2/4/3/6) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
ARP-5   WIN (8/3/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/3/2/4)-(8/3/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/3/2/4)-(8/3/2/4)-(8/3/2/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/3/2/4)-(2/4/3/6)-(4/7/6/5) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
ARP-6   WIN (2/4/3/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/4/3/6)-(2/4/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/4/3/6)-(2/4/3/6)-(2/4/3/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/4/3/6)-(4/7/6/5)-(5/8/1/6/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
ARP-7   WIN (4/7/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/7/6/5)-(4/7/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/7/6/5)-(4/7/6/5)-(4/7/6/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
ARP-8   WIN (5/8/1/6/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/8/1/6/3)-(5/8/1/6/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/8/1/6/3)-(5/8/1/6/3)-(5/8/1/6/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-3   07/31/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($2.5K) Purse ($5K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FLY BUDDY FLY Jul17 Jun17 May02 Apr08 Mar12 (torres-casas alex )LULL E 124 2.50    
2  FERRARI ROAD Jul15 Jul03 Jun17 May20 Apr22 (muckey john)MARTIN A 124 15.00    
3  CLIFTON PARK Jul10 Dec13 Nov30 Oct16 Sep25 (williams f)RAMEY CASH 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  DEBONNAIRE DUDE Jun18 May12 Apr29 Apr15 Apr07 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 124 6.00 48% 1.10    
5  THE GREATEST EAGLE Jul22 Jul09 Jun17 Jun04 May20 (ibanez alber)JOURNET JARRED 124 8.00 13% 6.50    
6  MORE ACTION Jul03 Jun18 May20 Apr08 Mar26 (lavanway dayson)TORRES J 124 10.00    
7  MY PAL Jul23 Jul02 Dec19 Nov23 Sep19 (martinez a)WALES T 121 3.50    
8  MORHAWK Jul09 Jul03 May17 Apr10 Apr03 (williams )MEDINA ANGEL 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  RANDOM AFFAIR Jul02 Apr15 Apr07 Mar24 Sep25 (burns dale)RAMOS B 124 4.50 10% 9.30    
 
ARP-4   07/31/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($5.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  J P'S WEST ACRES Jul15 Oct01 Aug30     (muckey john)MCNEIL BRYAN 121 6.00 18% 4.70    
2  CHICKEN N BISCUIT Jul16 Apr17 Apr04 Oct02 Sep13 (esquibel mark)RAMEY CASH 119 10.00    
3  BURBACH Sep13 Aug29 Aug02 Jul12   (chavez ju)MEDINA ANGEL 124 20.00    
4  PICK A LANE FRANK Jul15 Dec13 Nov09 Sep18 Aug28 (christian billy)LULL E 124 2.50 36% 1.80    
5  DEACON BEACON Jul03 Jun19 May14 Mar12 Dec14 (young a)GONZALEZ PEDRO 124 3.50    
6  MUCHO GIFTED Jul17 Jun25 Jun11 Sep18 Sep06 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 121 4.50 8% 11.20    
8  BARLOWS PRIDE Jun24 Sep27 Sep06 Aug29 Aug08 (parsons riley)WALES T 121 6.00 14% 5.90    
SCR  CHISMOSO Aug09 Jun24 May30 Apr23 Apr10 ( )TBA null      
 
ARP-5   07/31/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($6.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GREY ROGUE Jul17 Jun25 Apr29 Mar25 Feb18 (rushton t)MEDINA ANGEL 124 10.00    
2  BISCUIT SNATCHER Jun17 Apr29 Mar28 Mar07 Feb12 (rust terri)RAMOS B 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  NO LIMITATION Jul17 Jun24 May20 May06 Apr23 (hibdon mark)MORALES ROBERTO 124 2.50 18% 4.60    
4  CLEARLY MAD Jul17 Jun19 Apr29 Mar18 Feb18 (rushton stacy)LULL E 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  OMACHE KID Jul17 May07 Apr23 Apr09 Mar19 (wheeler travis)RAMEY CASH 119 4.50    
6  HAWKWOOD Jul17 Jul02 Sep17 Aug14 Jul19 (o'brien deb)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 6.00    
7  POLICY LIMIT Jul15 May13 May06 Apr22 Apr08 (lemburg mark)HAAR NATHAN 124 8.00    
8  MORO APPEAL Jul15 Jun25 May13 Apr16 Apr08 (long vaughn)WALES T 124 3.50 57% 0.80    
 
ARP-6   07/31/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($7.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SECRET SURVIVOR May27 Jan22 Jan13 Dec02 Nov18 (triana juan )MARTIN A 124 3.50    
2  BORN TO RACE Jul17 Jul03 Jun19 Apr16 Mar05 (chavez juan)TORRES J 124 6.00 39% 1.60    
3  TIME TO SKIP TOWN Jun25 Oct02 Sep19 Aug28 Jul09 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  IMPASSIONED CLAIM Jul02 Jun19 May05 Apr05 Mar28 (whitehouse wilton )LULL E 124 15.00 27% 2.70    
5  EUSEBIO Jul17 Jul02 Jun19 Jan08 Dec09 (esquibel mark)RAMOS B 120 2.50    
6  RI' PIN SNAP Jul02 Dec19 Nov30 Nov04 Sep19 (diaz luis)GONZALEZ PEDRO 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  CHARLIE'S NO SAINT Jul17 Jun25 Sep25 Sep13 Aug30 (young don)MEDINA ANGEL 124 20.00    
8  BRAVO KOLT Jul15 Jul02 May19 Apr08 Feb25 (roberts m)WALES T 124 4.50    
 
ARP-7   07/31/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($12.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THOUGHTS OF GOLD Jun19 Apr29 Aug06 Jul18 Apr03 (wheeler tra)MORALES ROBERTO 124 8.00    
2  RED WES Oct02 Sep19 Sep04 Aug23 Aug08 (chavez juan)TORRES J 121 10.00    
3  JONO Jul10 Jun19 May05 Apr15 Apr01 (rushton temple)HAAR NATHAN 124 3.50    
4  BRAYBRAY Jul15 Jun17 Mar06 Feb14 Jan09 (martinez a)WALES T 120 2.50 34% 2.00    
5  DIVINE TASK Jul17 Jun24 Sep27 Sep18 Aug29 (hall monk)RAMOS B 121 15.00 12% 7.60    
6  BEE EXXTRAVAGANT Aug15 Aug02 Jul17 Jul05   (parsons riley)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 10.00 12% 7.30    
7  HOYA PARANOYA Jun17 Mar19 Mar03 Feb11 Jan28 (garrett j)LULL E 121 4.50 15% 5.70    
8  AUDACE Sep19 Jul16 Jun27 May22 Apr01 (wheeler travis)RAMEY CASH 119 6.00    
 
ARP-8   07/31/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($9.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PUT PUT PUT Jul09         (parsons riley)TORRES J 117 6.00 18% 4.70    
  (by ZIP QUIK out of LABAR by BIANCONI)
2  TIZKANDOIT Jul10 May08       (shipp michael)RAMOS B 120 15.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of ISLE OF WONDER by TIZ WONDERFUL)
3  IZZY IN A TIZZY Jul02 May13 Sep15 Aug25 Jul28 (young don)MEDINA ANGEL 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TIZNOW out of SONG COLLECTION by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  MEMOLOTSAMISCHIEF Apr11 Mar18       (barrio sergio)HAAR NATHAN 124 4.50    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of SKYE MEMO by MEMO (CHI))
5  LINEARSPEED Jul10 Jun19       (barraza s)WALES T 124 2.50 28% 2.60    
  (by BLAME out of JULIE BE GOOD by STORMY ATLANTIC)
6  INCREDIBE MO Jul10 Jun19 Jan30 Jan07 Dec17 (whitehouse wilton )LULL E 124 3.50 11% 7.90    
  (by ACCLAMATION out of THORELLEN by SWISS YODELER)
7  NAPO Jul15 Jun18 May27 Apr02 May06 (ibanez alb)BARRIENTOS ANGEL 120 20.00    
  (by TOO DISCREET out of FOREST MAGIC by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
8  MY CAIRO KID         (barraza raf)MORALES ROBERTO 120 10.00 18% 4.50    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of MY AUDUBON by AMERICAIN)
9  HELLO WALTZ Mar12         (young a)RAMEY CASH 115 20.00    
  (by COMFORT out of WALTZING ROSE by HENNY HUGHES)
10  DOMERGOO Jul02 Apr14 Mar31     (childs russe)GONZALEZ PEDRO 124 15.00    
  (by MISREMEMBERED out of OVERTHETOP by BROKEN VOW)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.