Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - May 26, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (4/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/1)-(4/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/1)-(4/6/1)-(4/6/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/6/1)-(3/2/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/6/1)-(3/2/5)-(5/4/6/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (3/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/5)-(3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/5)-(5/4/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/2/5)-(5/4/6/7)-(6/3/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-3   WIN (5/4/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/6/7)-(5/4/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/6/7)-(5/4/6/7)-(5/4/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/6/7)-(6/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/4/6/7)-(6/3/5)-(6/2/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-4   WIN (6/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/5)-(6/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3/5)-(6/3/5)-(6/3/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/3/5)-(6/2/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/3/5)-(6/2/5)-(4/5/6/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-5   WIN (6/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/5)-(6/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/2/5)-(6/2/5)-(6/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/2/5)-(4/5/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/2/5)-(4/5/6/7)-(4/3/5/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-6   WIN (4/5/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/6/7)-(4/5/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/6/7)-(4/5/6/7)-(4/5/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/5/6/7)-(4/3/5/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/5/6/7)-(4/3/5/7)-(2/4/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-7   WIN (4/3/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/5/7)-(4/3/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/5/7)-(4/3/5/7)-(4/3/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/5/7)-(2/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/3/5/7)-(2/4/1)-(1/7/8/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-8   WIN (2/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/1)-(2/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/1)-(2/4/1)-(2/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/4/1)-(1/7/8/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-9   WIN (1/7/8/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/7/8/6)-(1/7/8/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/8/6)-(1/7/8/6)-(1/7/8/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/26/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TAMARA'S WAY Jan01 Dec17 Nov10 Oct26   (demeritte la)CALLEJA ANDRES 108 4.00 13% 6.60    
SCR  DREAM TRAP May12         (caramori cai)CASTILLO ISAAC 118 5.00    
3  KALL KAT Apr19 Mar18       (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 2.50    
4  SOULFUL TARA         (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00 40% 1.50    
5  MAHOMEBRED Apr19 Sep07 Aug06 Jul16 Jul01 (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 3.00    
6  CORTADO May16 Mar30 Feb24 Feb03 Dec28 (bahena ismael)NAVAS YOEL 117 4.00 18% 4.60    
 
CD-2   05/26/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RAYMOND May13 Apr19 Mar19 Mar03 Oct31 (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 123 2.00    
2  AMANI'S EAGLE May12 Apr13 Nov12 Oct22 Sep24 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 123 3.00 17% 4.70    
3  TOWING May03 Nov12 Oct19     (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 125 1.60 49% 1.00    
4  ASPEN CLUB Apr15 Mar23 Feb11 Jan21   (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 123 6.00    
5  EAST OF INDIA Mar09 Feb16 Feb02 Dec14 Oct19 (howard mar)CORRALES GERARDO 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  CRIMINAL DEFENSE Mar22 Feb26 Feb03 Dec19 Nov19 (barnett bobb)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 15.00    
 
CD-3   05/26/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHARP TUNE         (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00    
  (by FROSTED out of CLASSY TUNE by MACLEAN'S MUSIC)
2  WHAT'S CRACKIN         (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00    
  (by MCCRAKEN out of KELL PASO by DIVINE PARK)
3  HOCKEY         (casse mark)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of BALANDRA BAY by TIZNOW)
4  INTERMITTENT FAST Apr28         (ennis john)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 22% 3.50    
  (by TAPWRIT out of LADY MOCHA by TALE OF THE CAT)
5  KRICKLE May11 Apr19       (holsapple)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 54% 0.90    
  (by CARPE DIEM out of FRISCO GIRL by QUALITY ROAD)
6  RISKY SPIRIT         (becker scott)EMIGH A 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KHOZAN out of RISKY LADY by REVOLVING)
7  CRYSTAL SYMPHONY         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of J. A. CURLIN by CURLIN)
8  FOOLISH FRONT FIFI May11 Apr19       (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 3.00    
  (by COAL FRONT out of FOOLISH PATRIOT by AWESOME PATRIOT)
 
CD-4   05/26/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  U SO MONEY BABY Apr27 Mar17 Feb25 Feb10 Jan27 (cundiff )RODRIGUEZ A 113 15.00    
2  CHAMPAGNE AFFAIR Mar12 Jan16 Jan01 Dec17 Nov26 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 2.50    
3  BLUE GRASS ANNA May10 Apr26 Jan21 Dec28 Nov28 (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50 19% 4.20    
SCR  APRIL'S NO FOOL Apr12 Aug03 Jun23 May09   (miller jerome )CASTANON L 118 4.00    
5  SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI May11 Apr12 Mar02 Feb15 Jan07 (gonzalez e)BEJARANO R 118 15.00 6% 16.20    
6  JUDY'S WAY Apr28 Mar11 Jan16 Dec22 Nov12 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 38% 1.60    
7  HIGH SPEED May14 Apr22 Mar26 Feb04 Sep18 (cano munoz)LANERIE J 118 4.50    
 
CD-5   05/26/2023 5940ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KUNSHAN BRIDGE Mar18 Jan21 Dec15 Nov02 Oct20 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50    
2  IMPROBABLE STORY May04 Apr26 Apr12 Mar14 Feb11 (king l)CASTANON L 118 8.00 11% 8.00    
3  WHAT A COUNTRY Mar31 Mar03 Feb05 Nov16 Sep25 (shirer a)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00    
4  MY BARILEY Apr21 Mar10 Feb21 Jan28 Jan15 (leonard )SANTANA JR 118 5.00    
5  MAXIMUM IMPACT Apr21 Jan20 Jan14 Jan05 Dec20 (dilodovico nic)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 10.00 8% 12.20    
6  SILVER DUST May03 Mar26 Feb17 Jan07 Dec17 (vance d)LANERIE J 118 2.00 40% 1.50    
 
CD-6   05/26/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOLLGATE CANYON Oct15 Sep08       (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50    
2  JOR EL         (colebrook ben)NAVAS YOEL 111 8.00    
3  COTE D'IVOIRE Feb23 Jan19 Dec26     (margolis stephe)COHEN DAVID 118 15.00    
4  ABSOLUTE COURAGE May14 Jan27 Dec18 Nov18 Sep18 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 126 1.60 43% 1.30    
5  OFF THE CUFF Apr22 Mar16 Feb10 Jan11 Nov11 (humphries thom)MACHADO LUAN 126 5.00 31% 2.30    
6  CROSSING May11 Mar12 Jan27 Jan01   (lauer mich)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 4.00 5% 19.00    
7  I RUN         (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-7   05/26/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALL EYES WEST May04 Dec31 Dec11 Nov06 Oct07 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00    
2  FITZPATRICK Apr16 Feb25 Jun19 May21 Apr28 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00    
3  DEVIL'S TOWER Apr20 Mar24 Mar12 Feb10 Jan12 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 2.50 24% 3.20    
4  GULFSTREAM WAY May06 Apr23 Mar30 Feb04 Dec18 (kordenbroc)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 4.00 27% 2.70    
5  LEGAL DEAL May04 Apr22 Mar04 Jan14 Nov13 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 11% 8.30    
6  LOST IN LIMBO Apr15 Feb26 Feb10 Jun22 May29 (lauer mi)SANTANA JR 118 12.00    
7  EMERALD EXPRESS May04 Feb10 Jan08 Dec18 Nov23 (morse l)LANERIE J 118 15.00 10% 9.00    
 
CD-8   05/26/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($175K) Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUST MIGHT May06 Apr22 Mar18 Aug16 Jul18 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  BOUND FOR NOWHERE Apr26 Oct08 Jul02 Mar19   (ward a)ROSARIO JOEL 121 0.80 58% 0.70    
3  SMOKIN' JAY Apr22 Mar04 Aug02 Jul18 Jun11 (danner kel)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 10.00    
4  SURVEILLANCE May04 Apr15 Feb18 Jan21 Dec26 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 121 5.00 12% 7.20    
SCR  PIRATE RICK May04 Apr15 Mar18 Mar04 Feb18 (dilodovico nic)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 6.00    
6  BAD BEAT BRIAN May06 Apr08 Mar11 Jan18 Dec16 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 4.00    
SCR  FRIAR LAURENCE Apr26 Mar23 Jan18 Nov21 Oct22 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.00    
 
CD-9   05/26/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HE'S GOT THIS Apr23 Feb26 Feb03 Dec22 Dec01 (rankin l)SAEZ LUIS 124 5.00 49% 1.00    
2  LI MU BAI (IRE) Mar18 Feb24 Jan21 Nov26 Oct23 (wong jona)TORRES A 124 8.00    
SCR  COASTAL DEFENSE May06 Mar04 Nov23     (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 124 2.00    
4  LONG CROW May11 Apr08 Mar03 Apr23 Mar12 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 4.00    
5  LONGSHADOW Apr19 Mar17 Sep08 Aug17 Jul27 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 15.00    
6  JOB SECURITY Apr23 Feb11 Nov24     (pessin nei)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  FIELDSTONE Apr23 Mar22 Feb26 Jan08 Dec22 (wong jon)SANTANA JR 124 3.00 23% 3.40    
8  MILLARD'S SMILE May14 Apr27 Feb26 Feb03 Jan26 (rodriguez )MURRILL MITCHELL 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.