Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Turf Paradise
Saturday - March 11, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TUP-1   WIN (5) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (5)-(5/3/4/6/7) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (5)-(5/3/4/6/7)-(5/3/4/6/7) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (5)-(10/9/8/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (5)-(10/9/8/5)-(3/5/6/7/1) 20 $0.50 $10.00 
TUP-2   WIN (10/9/8/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/9/8/5)-(10/9/8/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/9/8/5)-(10/9/8/5)-(10/9/8/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (10/9/8/5)-(3/5/6/7/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/9/8/5)-(3/5/6/7/1)-(4/7) 40 $0.50 $20.00 
TUP-3   WIN (3/5/6/7/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/5/6/7/1)-(3/5/6/7/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/5/6/7/1)-(3/5/6/7/1)-(3/5/6/7/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/5/6/7/1)-(4/7) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (3/5/6/7/1)-(4/7)-(4/1) 20 $0.50 $10.00 
TUP-4   WIN (4/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/7)-(4/7/5/3/8) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (4/7)-(4/7/5/3/8)-(4/7/5/3/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/7)-(4/1) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (4/7)-(4/1)-(10/6/9) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
TUP-5   WIN (4/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/1)-(4/1/6/3/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (4/1)-(4/1/6/3/2)-(4/1/6/3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/1)-(10/6/9) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/1)-(10/6/9)-(8/3/6/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
TUP-6   WIN (10/6/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/6/9)-(10/6/1/9/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/6/9)-(10/6/1/9/2)-(10/6/1/9/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (10/6/9)-(8/3/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (10/6/9)-(8/3/6/1)-(4/11/9/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
TUP-7   WIN (8/3/6/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/3/6/1)-(8/3/6/1/11) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (8/3/6/1)-(8/3/6/1/11)-(8/3/6/1/11) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (8/3/6/1)-(4/11/9/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
TUP-8   WIN (4/11/9/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/11/9/10)-(4/11/9/10/12) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/11/9/10)-(4/11/9/10/12)-(4/11/9/10/12) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TUP-1   03/11/2023 3630ft DIRT RC2 FAST Mdn Opt Clm ($30K) Purse ($20.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FUSAICHIS BEST YET         (dennison dan)SARMIENTO RIGO 124 6.00    
2  KIRA FEVER         (kenney ryan)MARTI ALEXANDER 124 5.00    
3  MY MOONDANCER Feb25 Jan14       (schnell don)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 3.50 ★    
4  CASIA         (cerin vladimi)VALDES ALEXIS 124 4.00 ★    
5  HIGH GUNNER Feb14 Jan23 Dec14     (gleason m)MAWING A 124 2.50 77% 0.30    
6  SAVONA (IRE)         (perren ly)VALENZUELA A 124 4.50 ★    
7  CHIC SAMARAI         (essex charles)VERGARA P 124 8.00 ★    
 
TUP-2   03/11/2023 4950ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($15K) Purse ($21.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DADDY'S GIRL Feb08 Jan18 May02 Mar31 Mar08 (grissom roberta)CORBETT W 122 15.00    
2  DREAMER GIRL Feb16 Jan26 Jan10 Sep16 Aug21 (barraza rafael )VERGARA P 122 12.00    
SCR  MISS GHISLAINE Feb21 Feb02 Jan10 Jan02 Jul01 (si)DA FAUSTO 122 10.00 19% 4.20    
4  JUBILEE LAKE (GB) Feb25 Feb05 Jan07 Sep10 Jul30 (drysdale ne)HERNANDEZ HARRY 122 3.00    
5  TWELVE STARS Feb14 Jan10 Dec03 Nov12 Oct28 (brinson clay)LOPEZ KARLO 122 8.00 6% 15.80    
6  TAKING CHARGE DESI Feb16 Jan26 Jan09 Dec14 Nov28 (lund valorie)ZUNINO L 122 6.00    
7  SECRET MISTRESS Feb20 Jan28 Jan11 Dec19 Nov15 (sanderson)VALENZUELA A 122 5.00    
8  FIRST PROMISE Feb07 Jan25 Dec14 Nov21 Sep19 (lucarelli fran)ENRIQUEZ D 122 10.00 11% 7.70    
9  JEWEL AZUL Feb14 Sep04 Aug17 Aug04 Jun30 (woolley benn)CONTRERAS LUIS 122 6.00 15% 5.60    
10  BARBIE WARS Feb20 Jan28 Jan09 Dec19 Nov29 (diodoro rober)LARA EZEQUIEL 122 4.00 26% 2.90    
11  FAT AND FURIOUS Feb20 Jan28 Jan10 Dec13 Nov12 (woolley ben)HERNANDEZ HARRY 122 5.00    
SCR  STARSHIP SKY Mar03 Feb10 Dec26 Nov25 Oct22 (saldana reed)FUENTES A 122 12.00    
 
TUP-3   03/11/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($18.2K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNCLE JEFF Feb27 Feb04 Jan07 Nov15 Oct21 (rosales jorge)CARRENO J 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  STEAL HOME Feb15 Jan26 Jan09 Dec13 Oct15 (krasner cind)SARMIENTO RIGO 124 6.00    
3  MR NAVIGATOR Feb21 Jan29 Jan15 Dec16 Nov19 (silva jr)ARBOLEDA ALDO 124 8.00 23% 3.30    
4  LOOKIN FOR EIGHT Feb15 Jan23 Dec22 Nov08 Sep08 (silva rodrigu)LARA EZEQUIEL 124 10.00    
5  FAMILY BIZ Feb15 Jan23 Dec27 Nov26 Nov15 (krasner cindy)VERGARA P 124 5.00 15% 5.50    
6  NEW EAGLE Feb21 Feb09 Jan23 Dec11 Nov24 (metz jeffrey)CONTRERAS LUIS 124 4.00 15% 5.50    
7  FATHER O'FLAHERTY Feb21 Feb13 Dec08 Oct29 Oct22 (brown r)MARTI ALEXANDER 124 3.00 12% 7.60    
SCR  ASTRONOMICAL Feb27 Nov15 Sep24 Aug21 Jun04 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 124 10.00    
9  MITHQAAL Dec01 Nov07 Oct18 May15 Apr23 (evans justin)FUENTES A 124 10.00    
10  THE BEAT Feb21 Feb02 Jan04 Dec19 Nov26 (oberholtzer kev)CORBETT W 124 8.00    
 
TUP-4   03/11/2023 5610ft TURF RC11 FIRM Queen Purse ($60K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FAIRY TALE BLISS Feb20 Nov18 Oct16 Aug28 Aug07 (mcfarlane l)LOPEZ KARLO 120 15.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of CERTAIN QUALITY by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
2  ICE QUEEN Feb12 Jan13 Nov20 Oct15 Sep05 (saldana reed)FUENTES A 122 6.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of TWO BELOW by HAT TRICK (JPN))
3  MISS HARD KNOCKS Feb11 Jan23 Jan09 Dec21 Nov23 (hernandez m)MORALES ALLYSSA 122 5.00 ★    
  (by MR SPEAKER out of MISS HISSY FIT by ALDEBARAN)
4  YANKEE DOLLAR Feb11 Jan09 Dec13 Nov29 Nov07 (vitali marc)HERNANDEZ HARRY 122 2.00 41% 1.50    
  (by CALIFORNIA CHROME out of RED NECK SONG by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
5  LADY COMMISSIONER Feb11 Jan23 Jan09 Dec15 Nov26 (hernandez mig)VALDES ALEXIS 120 6.00 ★    
  (by COMMISSIONER out of MARCO GROOM by MARCO BAY)
6  IN THE RED Jan28 Dec15 Sep07 Jul30 Jul03 (pierce mi)VALENZUELA A 122 10.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of PAMPHLET by NOTEBOOK)
7  LA CASTIGLIONE Jan23 Nov26 Nov05 Sep05 Aug15 (gutierrez juan )LEON A 124 2.50 33% 2.00    
  (by UNCLE LINO out of PERVERSE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
8  STREET SHADOW Feb11 Jan28 Jan11 Dec13 Nov14 (lucarelli frank)MAWING A 120 8.00 ★    
  (by THE FACTOR out of STREET CREW by STREET CRY (IRE))
 
TUP-5   03/11/2023 5280ft DIRT RC11 FAST Arizona Oaks Purse ($75K) 3 F PT- 4:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DON'T GET PICKLED Feb18 Jan28 Jan07 Dec21 Nov25 (hernandez migue)CORBETT W 121 2.00 33% 2.00    
  (by MISREMEMBERED out of C C'S PRIDE by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
2  UNRIVALED QUEEN Feb26 Feb06 Jan12 Dec21 Dec10 (lund valorie)LOPEZ KARLO 121 8.00 ★    
  (by EDDINGTON out of ANGIE'S GOLD by TOUCH GOLD)
3  FAYETTE FOX Feb18 Jan22       (cerin vladim)CONTRERAS LUIS 121 3.50 ★    
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of A. P. INVESTMENT by A.P. INDY)
4  BEYOND AWESOME Feb26 Jan28 Jan07 Dec21 Dec10 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 121 2.50 36% 1.80    
  (by BOOS out of CAMILLE by ROCKY BAR)
5  JAMIES INHERITANCE Feb18 Feb01       (rennie rich)MORALES ALLYSSA 121 12.00    
  (by CARPE DIEM out of BETH ANN'S KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
6  UNA PALABRA Feb18 Jan25 Dec15     (belvoir van)HERNANDEZ HARRY 121 4.00 ★    
  (by MCCRAKEN out of ONE FOR YOU by DAYJUR)
7  OCEAN OF LIES Feb21         (bratcher ry)CONNING CRYSTAL 121 20.00    
  (by MAJESTIC HARBOR out of FALSE STATEMENT by STEPHEN GOT EVEN)
8  COASTLINE HOTTIE Feb21 Feb01       (sepich f)ZUNINO L 121 15.00    
  (by COASTLINE out of HOLLYWOOD HOTTIE by CITY ZIP)
 
TUP-6   03/11/2023 5610ft DIRT RC11 FAST Turf Paradise Derby Purse ($75K) 3 ALL PT- 5:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ARIZONA ANDREW Feb18 Jan28 Dec10 Oct04 Sep05 (eikleberry kevi)VERGARA P 121 4.50 ★    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of TOPPISME by SAINT BALLADO)
2  TIZ TOK Feb17 Jan22 Jan15     (sadler john )CONTRERAS LUIS 121 4.00 ★    
  (by TIZNOW out of WEEKEND PROSPECT by A.P. INDY)
3  MOHAMAD Feb27 Feb14 Jan26 Jan09 Oct29 (brown r)MARTI ALEXANDER 121 20.00    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of UNUSUAL STYLE by UNUSUAL HEAT)
4  ACCELERITAS Feb18 Jan28 Dec21 Nov15 Oct01 (ei)DA FAUSTO 121 20.00    
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of CELERITAS by STEPHEN GOT EVEN)
5  MY MAN BIGGIE Feb18 Jan26 Dec20 Nov25 Nov08 (simpson s)VALENZUELA A 121 15.00    
  (by MR. BIG out of TWIN SPIRIT by YANKEE GENTLEMAN)
6  SPECIAL MOMENT Feb18 Feb07 Jan18 Oct22 Sep24 (hone bart)CORBETT W 121 3.00 9% 10.10    
  (by STANFORD out of BLAME IT ONTHESONG by BLAME)
7  THIRSTY JOHN Feb18 Jan07 May14     (miller peter)VAZQUEZ A 121 6.00    
  (by STAY THIRSTY out of DISCREET DEE by DISCREET CAT)
8  AMERICAN BLAZE Feb10 Jan19 Dec28 Oct12 Aug27 (brinson clay)LOPEZ KARLO 121 12.00    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of BEAUTY N BALANCE by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
9  PUBLIC OPINION Feb18 Jan26 Nov25 Sep17 Aug28 (rarick wade)FUENTES A 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of BARBY SUE by PURGE)
10  I AM FREAKY FAST Feb18 Jan26 Jan05 Apr28 Apr08 (ferguson cur)GARCIA ENRIQUE 121 5.00 64% 0.60    
  (by CONNECT out of POUNDS TO PENNIES by EXCHANGE RATE)
11  LOUDMOUTHSOUP Feb18 Jan29 Dec21 Dec01 Nov08 (diodoro robertino)CARRENO J 121 10.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of TALKAHOLIC by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
12  ECHO CANYON Feb27 Feb13 Jan26 Dec01 Nov15 (schnell don)VALDES ALEXIS 121 15.00    
  (by ATREIDES out of BIG RELEASE by MR. BIG)
 
TUP-7   03/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Phoenix Gold Cup Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RADICAL RIGHT Feb05 Nov26 Nov06 Oct20 Oct09 (miller peter)VAZQUEZ A 123 4.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of EMILY by CONFIDENTIAL TALK)
SCR  HOWBEIT Feb05 Nov20 Oct01 Aug27 Jul30 (glatt mark)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 3.00    
  (by SECRET CIRCLE out of EMERLAUDE by EL CORREDOR)
3  COMPETITIVE IDEA Jan29 Jan01 Nov22 Oct31 Oct11 (cappellucci )FUENTES A 122 6.00 22% 3.60    
  (by COMPETITIVE EDGE out of THAT'S THE IDEA by DIABOLICAL)
4  GRAY MAGICIAN Feb27 Feb08 Jan30 Dec20 Nov21 (silva j)GARCIA ENRIQUE 117 20.00    
  (by GRAYDAR out of BURG BERG by JOHANNESBURG)
5  BEDROCK (GB) Feb18 Nov28 Nov07 Jul24 Jul04 (christian b)CONNING CRYSTAL 117 20.00    
  (by RED ROCKS out of GREAT DESIGN by STORM CAT)
6  TRUTH SEEKER Feb18 Jan10 Nov26 Nov04 Jul08 (barraza s)MAWING A 123 5.00 10% 9.40    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of FOR ROYALTY by NOT FOR LOVE)
7  JAZZ HANDS Feb28 Feb18 Feb08 Jan28 Dec21 (si)DA FAUSTO 117 15.00    
  (by SQUARE EDDIE out of NICOLE AND BEN by RUSSIAN COURAGE)
8  MINISTER OF SOUL Feb18 Jan29 Jan01 Nov28 Nov04 (martinez esteba)VERGARA P 122 8.00 44% 1.30    
  (by MINISTERS WILD CAT out of SENSITIVE SOUL by BERNSTEIN)
9  ESCAPE ROUTE Feb05 Jun12 Apr16 Mar12 Jan30 (glatt mark)CONTRERAS LUIS 119 10.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of NONCOMMITAL by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
10  CHATTALOT Jan29 Jan06 Dec10 Nov24 Oct19 (asmussen steven)NEGRON LUIS 121 8.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT LUTE out of MAMBOALOT by KINGMAMBO)
11  TIGER DAD Jan28 Jan10 Nov26 Nov04 Aug27 (diodoro roberti)LOPEZ KARLO 120 15.00 ★    
  (by SMILING TIGER out of Q T SHAE by UNUSUAL HEAT)
12  MR. STANG Feb18 Jan28 Jan10 Dec14 Nov21 (lucarelli frank)ZUNINO L 119 20.00    
  (by ATTA BOY ROY out of SPECIAL HOLIDAY by PRIVATE GOLD)
 
TUP-8   03/11/2023 5610ft TURF RC11 FIRM Cotton Fitzsimmons Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NATURAL POWER (IRE) Feb17 Jan28 Dec16 Oct23 Sep05 (cerin vladimir)MAWING A 118 20.00    
  (by SLADE POWER (IRE) out of MISS INTIMATE by WAR CHANT)
2  TARTINI Feb11 Jan23 Jan03 Dec19 Nov26 (hernandez mig)VALDES ALEXIS 120 20.00    
  (by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY out of VIGNETTE by DIESIS (GB))
3  STITZY Feb11 Jan12 Dec19 Nov26 Nov08 (silva jr)LOPEZ KARLO 121 15.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of MY BELONGING by BELONG TO ME)
4  SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT Dec31 Nov26 Nov05 Aug13 May30 (mcc)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 128 1.40 57% 0.80    
  (by MIDNIGHT LUTE out of SMOOTH AS USUAL by FLOWER ALLEY)
5  BAROSSA Feb20 Feb11 Jan23 Jan09 Jun12 (hernandez migue)LEON A 116 15.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of BOUQUET BOOTH by FLOWER ALLEY)
6  CLAYTON DELANEY Feb10 Nov13 Sep24 Sep10 Jul22 (metz jeffrey)CORBETT W 116 20.00    
  (by GRAZEN out of SUDDEN SUNDAY by BERTRANDO)
7  SONNY SMACK Feb11 Jan12 Dec19 Dec08 Sep07 (lund valorie)ZUNINO L 121 8.00    
  (by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL out of SMACK MADAM by VICTORY GALLOP)
8  NO SLO MO Feb11 Jan25 Jan07 Dec15 Oct26 (belvoir van)HERNANDEZ HARRY 116 10.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of STRIKING SCHOLAR by SMART STRIKE)
9  BIGFOOT CITY Feb08 Jan09 Dec27 Nov21 Nov08 (silva jr)ARBOLEDA ALDO 116 15.00 6% 16.60    
  (by CITY ZIP out of FOREST LEGEND by WOODMAN)
10  PEPPER SPRAY Jan09 Sep24 Aug28 Jul30 Jul09 (kereluk e)VALENZUELA A 116 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TALE OF EKATI out of A P PEPPER by A. P. WARRIOR)
11  ZESTFUL Feb27 Feb11 Jan23 Jan03 Nov22 (evans justin)ENRIQUEZ D 121 6.00 11% 7.80    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of SWEET RELISH by SMOKE GLACKEN)
12  YES THIS TIME Feb05 Jan01 Dec04 Jun18 May28 (glatt mark)CONTRERAS LUIS 122 5.00 ★    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of SMART JILLY by SMART STRIKE)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.