Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Sunday - October 16, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   10/16/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($47K) 2 F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FREE SPIRITED Sep22 Aug26       (ortiz john)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 ★    
2  KEY TO SUCCESS Sep17 Aug14       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50 26% 2.80    
3  UNESCORTED         (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 119 5.00 8% 11.80    
SCR  LUCKY PHOENIX Sep22 Aug21       (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00    
5  GOODBETTERBEST Sep22 Aug26       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 1.80 37% 1.70    
6  THESTRAL Sep07         (caramori caio)PARKER L 119 20.00    
7  UNDER THE BED         (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  SHE HAS THE LOOK Sep13 Aug13 Jul09     (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00    
 
KEE-2   10/16/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OFFICIAL BUSINESS Sep01 Jul23 May22 Apr24   (sims a)GILLIGAN JACK 122 20.00    
2  BLUE NORTHER Sep14 Aug26 Jul29 Apr16 Feb20 (ortiz alexan)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 ★    
3  KEEPCALMCARRYON Sep28 Jul04 May29     (margolis stephen)BEJARANO R 118 3.00 ★    
4  MR. CUNNINGHAM Aug19 Jul08 Mar03 Feb10 Jan22 (meredith charle)HOLMES GAGE 113 30.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  RIGHT TONE Sep03 Jul22 Jun25 May30   (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.60 36% 1.80    
6  MR CREED Sep18         (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 118 10.00    
7  GARMENTO         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 118 4.50 29% 2.50    
 
KEE-3   10/16/2022 5940ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($49K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRIGHT SPARK Sep23 Aug05 Jul03 Jun24 Jun11 (flint bernar)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 20.00 ★    
2  GRAND JURY Sep22 Aug30       (ortiz jo)SANTANA JR 120 5.00 39% 1.60    
3  MAASAI WARRIOR Sep18 Mar19 Feb19 Jan22   (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 1.00 39% 1.60    
4  FREEZE POP Sep10 Aug24       (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 ★    
5  AWAY FROM HOME Sep23 Aug13 Mar26     (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 120 12.00    
6  MINT Sep18 Sep01       (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 124 6.00 ★    
7  RA'S AL GHUL Aug16         (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 120 10.00    
8  VALE Sep29 Aug13 Jul15     (forster t)GRAHAM J 120 20.00    
 
KEE-4   10/16/2022 5610ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WAR ROOM Sep22         (brisset )SANTANA JR 121 6.00 ★    
2  SPEED BIAS Jun24 Apr30 Apr02     (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 8.00 29% 2.50    
3  LUPO'S LEGACY Sep15 Aug28       (englehart jeremia)SAEZ LUIS 121 10.00 7% 12.90    
4  RAMPATIOUS Sep18 Jul31 Apr29     (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 121 20.00    
5  UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL Aug13         (pletcher todd)VELAZQUEZ R 121 0.50 40% 1.50    
6  REDEMPTION TIME Sep18 Jul31       (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 4.00 ★    
 
KEE-5   10/16/2022 3630ft TURF RC0 FIRM Allowance Purse ($110K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STRIDE         (mackey wayne)ARAGON ROLANDO 118 30.00 9% 10.80    
2  SUTHERLAND Sep13 Aug07 Jun30     (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 4.50    
3  YOU VEE CEE Sep30 May08 Apr23 Apr02 Mar20 (deville carl)GEROUX FLORENT 121 30.00    
SCR  JUST SAY WHEN Sep11 Jul14 May19 Feb23   (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 15% 5.60    
SCR  TRUST DADDY Sep14 Jul03 Jun11 May27   (o'dwyer jere)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 30.00    
6  KAUFYMAKER         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 115 2.00 22% 3.50    
7  APACHE TEARS Sep03 May14 Apr21 Mar20 Jan28 (mckeever andrew)ACHARD ALEX 121 20.00    
8  BADGEBALL Sep22 Jun25       (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
9  MUMAYAZ Sep11 Aug12 Jul04 Jun11 Apr23 (peitz dan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
10  SWITZER Sep14 Aug12 Jun22 Apr28 Mar23 (moquett )SANTANA JR 118 20.00    
11  RUM 'N TONIC Sep03 Jun19 May22 Apr23   (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 8.00    
12  WILLTORUN Aug21         (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 120 6.00    
13  OXWOOD Sep27 Sep06 Aug23 Aug02 Jul05 (woodbury judy)CANUTO THIAGO 121 30.00    
SCR  SOSUA SUMMER Sep14 Aug03 Jul02 May15 Apr02 (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 32% 2.10    
SCR  DR. DUKE Sep24 Aug21 May28 Apr10 Mar09 (antonucci je)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 4.50 ★    
SCR  DATA STORM Sep11 Jul29 Jun17 May30 May07 (martin timot)JORDAN R 121 15.00    
 
KEE-6   10/16/2022 4620ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 F PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PENNY ARCADE         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 15.00    
2  MO DIVINE         (hamilton sara)CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00    
3  VOGELSANG         (ewing michael)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 30.00    
4  JULIA SHINING         (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 19% 4.20    
5  POSITANO SUNSET Sep18         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 3.50 28% 2.60    
6  ACRIMONY Aug26         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 6% 15.20    
7  GHOSTLY GIRL Sep23         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50 27% 2.70    
8  TWO MINUTE LICK         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 ★    
9  THEROANRUNNER         (sharp joe)VELAZQUEZ R 119 15.00    
10  MORAL TURPITUDE         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00    
11  ROMAN GODDESS Sep25         (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
12  WITH THIS RING         (brisset )SANTANA JR 119 12.00    
SCR  TABOR TIME Sep23         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
SCR  SUN VALLEY ROAD         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 12.00    
 
KEE-7   10/16/2022 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Grade III Stake/Handicap Purse ($300K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STAR DEVINE (IRE) Sep10 Jul23 Jun10 Apr16   (abreu jorge )BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FASTNET ROCK (AUS) out of STARS AT NIGHT by GALILEO (ARG))
2  CARAVEL Sep19 Aug20 Jul23 Jun10 May06 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00 8% 11.40    
  (by MIZZEN MAST out of ZEEZEE ZOOMZOOM by CONGRATS)
3  QUEROBIN DOURADA Sep13 Aug06 Jul16 Jun11 Apr22 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 15.00    
  (by CAPO BASTONE out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
4  CREATIVE CREDIT Sep24 Sep10 Aug07 Jul13 Jun29 (haehn r)OUZTS W 120 20.00    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of CREDIT CRUNCH (IRE) by CAERLEON)
5  HAVE A GOOD DAY (IRE) Sep13 Aug11       (delgado gus)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 30.00    
  (by ADAAY out of BLACK MEYEDEN by BLACK MINNALOUSHE)
6  TWILIGHT GLEAMING (IRE) Jul29 May14 Apr10     (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 118 3.50 18% 4.60    
  (by NATIONAL DEFENSE out of THAMES PAGEANT by DANSILI (GB))
7  TOBYS HEART Sep10 Aug07 Jul23 Jun10 May05 (lynch bri)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 15.00    
  (by JACK MILTON out of PICK OF THE PACK by LIL'S LAD)
8  BOUT TIME Jul23 Jun25 May15 Mar24 Jan28 (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 120 6.00 6% 16.30    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of CHILLING EFFECT by GOLD FEVER)
9  THUNDERING CREED Sep01 Aug06 Jun29 May27 Apr28 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 122 12.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of THUNDERING GALE by THUNDERELLO)
SCR  CHANGE OF CONTROL Sep19 Aug20 Jul18 Jun11 May05 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 122 5.00 36% 1.80    
  (by FED BIZ out of AMERICA'S BLOSSOM by QUIET AMERICAN)
11  BROOKE MARIE Sep10 Aug07 May05 Apr09 Jan29 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 124 8.00    
  (by LEMON DROP KID out of MAMASEZ by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
12  ELLE Z Sep10 Aug07 Jul13 Apr16 Mar01 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 20.00    
  (by CITY ZIP out of COURT APPEAL by WORLD APPEAL)
SCR  ILLEGAL SMILE (IRE) Aug20 Jun10 Apr08     (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 120 4.00    
  (by CAMACHO (NZ) out of FINE IF by IFFRAAJ (GB))
SCR  MINER'S QUEEN Sep01 Aug03 Jul04 Jun12 May21 (hernandez rey)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 30.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of QUEEN'S AWARD by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SCR  VIOLENZA Sep10 Aug07 Jul18 Apr16 Mar10 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 120 15.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of SOUTH STREET GAL by STREET SENSE)
 
KEE-8   10/16/2022 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HIDDEN SCROLL Sep15 Jun11       (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 121 3.50 43% 1.30    
2  SPANKSTER Sep25 Aug14 Jul02 Jun12 Apr29 (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 118 10.00    
3  RUN CLASSIC Sep22         (calhoun wi)HERNANDEZ J 123 6.00 9% 9.90    
4  RISING EMPIRE Jul23 Jun05 May07 Mar24 Feb13 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.50 8% 11.50    
5  BRIEFCASE BULLY Sep16 Jul24 Jun18 May15   (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 121 12.00    
6  GAGETOWN Sep25 Aug17 Jul20 Jul04 Jun08 (simms j)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 8.00 ★    
7  UBER KIRK Sep17 Aug20 Jun30 May30 Apr28 (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 123 2.50 16% 5.20    
8  A C EXPRESSWAY Sep17 Jul03 May30 May07 Apr02 (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 8.00    
9  NO SHIRT NO SHOES Aug07 Jul08 Jun10 Apr16 Mar19 (anderson dou)JORDAN R 121 20.00    
 
KEE-9   10/16/2022 5610ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 F PT- 5:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PSYCHEDELIC Sep13 Aug03       (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00    
2  BOTANICAL Sep03         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 15.00    
3  BEST PERFORMER         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 12.00    
4  JUNIPERMARSHMALLOW         (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00    
5  STAY LOST Sep08 Aug07       (casse w)VELAZQUEZ R 119 3.00    
6  DOT MARIE Sep01 Jul23 Jun17     (caramori eduar)LEZCANO ABEL 119 30.00    
7  WORDS OF PRAISE Sep13         (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
8  MRS. ASTOR         (thomas jon)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 6.00    
9  MISS PEABODY Sep01         (newton troy)PARKER L 119 5.00 12% 7.50    
10  AUDACIOUSNESS Sep14 Aug06 Jul04     (stall alb)LEPAROUX R 119 4.00 24% 3.20    
11  MO NEDA Sep10         (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 15.00    
12  PIGEON CAY Sep09 Aug18       (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
SCR  BEAT THE ESTIMATES Sep05         (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 ★    
SCR  MALAWNIA Sep17 Aug13 Jul01     (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 119 30.00    
SCR  SAFEEN Sep13         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 2.00 33% 2.00    
SCR  OUR DOTSIE Sep14         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 10.00 10% 8.60    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.