Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Churchill Downs
Saturday - April 26, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

CD-1   WIN (5/8/1/11/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/8/1/11/6)-(5/8/1/11/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/8/1/11/6)-(5/8/1/11/6)-(5/8/1/11/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/8/1/11/6)-(5/3/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/8/1/11/6)-(5/3/2)-(3/1/5/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-2   WIN (5/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/3/2)-(5/3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/3/2)-(5/3/2)-(5/3/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/3/2)-(3/1/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/3/2)-(3/1/5/4)-(6/5/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-3   WIN (3/1/5/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/5/4)-(3/1/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/1/5/4)-(3/1/5/4)-(3/1/5/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/1/5/4)-(6/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/1/5/4)-(6/5/7)-(4/2/5/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (6/5/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/7)-(6/5/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/7)-(6/5/7)-(6/5/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/7)-(4/2/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/5/7)-(4/2/5/1)-(10/4/11/5/8) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-5   WIN (4/2/5/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/2/5/1)-(4/2/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/2/5/1)-(4/2/5/1)-(4/2/5/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/2/5/1)-(10/4/11/5/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/2/5/1)-(10/4/11/5/8)-(8/5/6/1) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-6   WIN (10/4/11/5/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/4/11/5/8)-(10/4/11/5/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/4/11/5/8)-(10/4/11/5/8)-(10/4/11/5/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/4/11/5/8)-(8/5/6/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/4/11/5/8)-(8/5/6/1)-(1/3/9/4/5) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-7   WIN (8/5/6/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/5/6/1)-(8/5/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/5/6/1)-(8/5/6/1)-(8/5/6/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/5/6/1)-(1/3/9/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/5/6/1)-(1/3/9/4/5)-(6/4/3/7) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-8   WIN (1/3/9/4/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/3/9/4/5)-(1/3/9/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/3/9/4/5)-(1/3/9/4/5)-(1/3/9/4/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/3/9/4/5)-(6/4/3/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/3/9/4/5)-(6/4/3/7)-(10/8/9/7) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-9   WIN (6/4/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/3/7)-(6/4/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/4/3/7)-(6/4/3/7)-(6/4/3/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/4/3/7)-(10/8/9/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-10   WIN (10/8/9/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/8/9/7)-(10/8/9/7/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/8/9/7)-(10/8/9/7/1)-(10/8/9/7/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
CD-1   04/26/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($45K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TIBERIUS MERCURIUS Mar29 Mar07 Feb08 Jan18 Dec28 (esquivel jesus)MACHADO LUAN 118 4.00 19% 4.30    
WHERE IS LISA Mar19 Mar05 Feb06 Jan15 Jan03 (antonuik)RODRIGUEZ A 118 30.00    
SCR  COYOTE ROAD Dec20 Nov20 Oct30 Oct04 Aug02 (hernandez rey)SANJUR SANTO 118 8.00    
READY PURSUIT Mar27 Feb23 Jan23 Jan03 Dec18 (gonzalez re)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 15.00    
PERUVIAN LUCKY Feb28 Feb01 Jan18 Dec13 Oct24 (cook b)MONCADA IRVING 113 5.00 29% 2.40    
IMPROBABLE STORY Apr16 Mar13 Feb07 Jan24 Dec20 (king barr)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SYNTHESIS Apr04 Mar08 Jan23 Jan04 Aug18 (jacobson davi)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50    
HOODLUM Feb17 Jan04 Nov16 Oct18 Sep22 (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 20% 4.00    
I AM THE GAME Mar29 Mar08 Feb26 Feb05 Jan24 (chavez manue)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 15.00    
10  METATRON'S MUSE Feb01 Jan01 Nov29 Oct30 Sep14 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 118 8.00    
11  NOAHS ARK (IRE) Mar29 Mar13 Feb26 Jan18 Oct27 (norris mike)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00 6% 16.30    
 
CD-2   04/26/2025 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JILL JITTERBUG Mar20 Feb12 Dec19 Nov14 Sep20 (walsh d)MORALES EDGAR 123 20.00    
NEVERWALKALONE (BRZ) Mar02 Jan24 Sep05 Aug04 Jun22 (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 123 10.00 12% 7.20    
LUCKY SPEECH Oct17 Aug29 Jul27 Jun15 May17 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 123 5.00 17% 4.80    
SCR  JUSTIFIABLE BELLE Oct17 Sep11 May19 Apr07 Aug19 (wilkes r)SAEZ LUIS 123 3.00    
MISSION OF JOY Oct05 Aug31 Jul13 Jun07 May04 (motion grah)ORTIZ JR 123 1.80 49% 1.00    
VINOS ANGEL Mar26 Mar01 Feb06 Jan23 Dec11 (bahena ismae)CALLEJA ANDRES 123 30.00    
SCR  NO MO CANDY Nov08 Sep20 Jul26 Jun27   (joseph sa)DETTORI LANFRANCO 123 2.00    
 
CD-3   04/26/2025 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($62K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CERVARO DELLA SALA (GB) Apr11 Mar13 Feb27     (meah m)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.00 21% 3.70    
BOLT ON THE ROCKS Mar22 Feb09 Aug09 May23 Mar30 (hartman chris)CURTIS BEN 124 5.00    
NEXT UP Mar14         (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.50 48% 1.10    
LOU ANNA Sep04 Aug24 Aug03 Dec08 Nov12 (mccutchen jas)CANNON DECLAN 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
ASK AMANDA Mar26 Mar15 Feb22 Oct25 Oct01 (bahena ism)CORRALES GERARDO 124 20.00 7% 12.50    
BEACH BUNNY Apr10 Jan16 Nov21 Oct31 Sep29 (habeeb donal)MONCADA IRVING 119 15.00    
CREATIVE QUALITY Mar29 Mar07 Feb13 Jan30 Dec01 (foster eric)ORTIZ JR 124 2.50    
BIG DIG Mar12 Feb22 Jan23 Dec26 Nov16 (bahena i)RODRIGUEZ A 124 4.00    
 
CD-4   04/26/2025 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OUR KEEPSAKE Apr12 Mar14 Dec27 Nov24 Oct31 (lukas wayne)JUAREZ NIK 124 4.50    
LAURIE'S SECRET Feb23 Jan18 Dec15 Oct28   (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 124 15.00    
SCR  SAM'S TREASURE Apr25 Aug29 Jul19 Jun07 Apr05 (ward a)ROSARIO JOEL 124 3.00    
SCR  OUTRAGEOUSLY Mar08 Jan05 Dec01 Nov03 Apr30 (blair jordan)MACHADO LUAN 124 12.00    
TWIRL AROUND Aug24 Jul06 May16 Apr20 Jan26 (foley greg)ORTIZ JR 124 3.50 12% 7.50    
SUNDANCE FEATURE Jun05 May03 Mar28     (drury jr)SAEZ LUIS 124 2.00 55% 0.80    
LORD I WONDER Feb02 Jan02 Nov21 Oct04 Aug14 (stall albert)GEROUX FLORENT 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-5   04/26/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
REDFIELD Mar15 Dec18 Nov02 Oct19 Oct05 (watkins m)MCKEE J 125 15.00 5% 19.00    
MUCHO MOJO Mar29 Feb27 Feb08 Oct07 Sep12 (blair jordan)SAEZ LUIS 125 4.00 17% 4.80    
OUR DREAM RYE'D Apr04 Jan24 Dec26 Dec12 Nov11 (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 125 5.00    
CAROLO RAPIDO Mar22 Jan25 Jan05 Oct24 Sep14 (maker michael )MACHADO LUAN 125 2.50 30% 2.30    
PATROLMAN Mar28 Mar08 Jan24 Nov16 Oct20 (esquivel jes)BESCHIZZA ADAM 125 8.00 16% 5.50    
FORGE IN FIRE Feb06 Dec12 Nov16 Oct18 Sep26 (bahena ism)CORRALES GERARDO 125 3.50    
EVENING NEWS Mar28 Feb06 Jan17 Sep14 Jul14 (spicer t)NAVAS YOEL 125 5.00    
CRIMINAL DEFENSE Apr16 Mar21 Feb28 Feb08 Dec29 (barnett c)GRAHAM J 125 20.00    
SCR  SUCCESSION GOLD Mar20 Feb01 Jan17 Dec20 Oct03 (orantes jo)HERNANDEZ N 125 20.00    
 
CD-6   04/26/2025 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($67K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  POP PAUL Jan05         (hess b)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00    
SHADOW COAST Mar12 Feb15 Jan18 Dec26 Nov16 (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00    
HOLSTER Apr13 Mar02 Feb05 Jan15 Dec27 (johnston lane )SAEZ GABRIEL 125 4.50    
TAPAKENA Mar23 Apr06 Mar02 Jan27   (lynch brian )MONCADA IRVING 120 4.00 12% 7.20    
LEMON SOHN Mar20 Feb13 Jan20 Dec22 Nov28 (schultz l)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
SKYNET Apr10 Mar22 Feb14 Jan24 Nov29 (barrett rod)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 20.00    
DEMAND Mar29         (medina robert)ROSARIO JOEL 118 20.00    
TUN TAVERN         (vosler s)SERPA ANGEL 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
DAIQUIRI SOMMELIER Mar12         (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00    
10  SINISTER SMILE Mar22 Feb23 Dec14 Nov27   (puhich mike)CANNON DECLAN 118 3.50 57% 0.80    
11  CLASSY WAR Mar14 Jan17 Jan04 May11   (casse mark)ORTIZ L 118 5.00 8% 11.90    
12  STRATEGIST Dec01 Oct12 Sep14 Aug24   (romero grego)CALLEJA ANDRES 118 30.00    
 
CD-7   04/26/2025 6600ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:37
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ANTONIA'S FLOWERS Mar28         (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of PARIS AMOUR by FROSTED)
SCR  PLAZA CUE Apr06 Mar09 Jan26 Jan09   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.50    
  (by SKY MESA out of SAMBA BREEZE by SUPER SAVER)
HALFIN Mar28 Feb28 Nov30 Nov13   (humphries thom)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
  (by FLATTER out of SPLASH HIT by FLOWER ALLEY)
CHURNING BERNI Apr11 Jan25 Dec28 Nov14 Sep29 (jacobson davi)ORTIZ JR 126 4.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of ABUNDANT FLURRY by MIDSHIPMAN)
KISS ME AGAIN Mar28 Mar07 Dec27 Nov21 Oct25 (blair jordan)MONCADA IRVING 121 3.50 20% 4.10    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of FUHRIOUSLY KISSED by LANGFUHR)
ASHES AND DIAMONDS Apr09 Sep01       (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 118 4.50 15% 5.70    
  (by HONOR A. P. out of REGAL PASSAGE by VIOLENCE)
MADDIENLIZZYSHONOR Mar16 Feb17 Jan03     (ortiz joh)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00    
  (by HONOR A. P. out of BUSY LISTENING by DEHERE)
VINO TIEMPO Mar30 Mar09 Dec29 Dec06 Nov02 (vance d)LANERIE J 118 5.00 26% 2.90    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of ROKSANA by ESKENDEREYA)
 
CD-8   04/26/2025 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($50K) Purse ($76K) 3UP M/F PT- 9:09
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SMOOTH WAVES Feb06 Nov03 Oct10 Sep07 Jul27 (foley greg)ORTIZ JR 125 3.50 26% 2.80    
SCR  TALENT SHOW Feb28 Jan16 Dec18     (garcia gena)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 6.00    
FAIRE PLAISIR Mar28 Mar06 Feb06 Jan16 Dec26 (king barr)LEPAROUX R 125 8.00 25% 3.00    
BREAD TO RUN Apr07 Jan31 Dec18 Oct06 Sep06 (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50 8% 11.40    
SWEET VOYAGE Mar22 Feb12 Jan17 Nov23 Jan01 (hiles a)LANERIE J 125 15.00 5% 19.00    
CHOATE Mar15 Jan23 Dec20 Oct26 Sep08 (nihei michelle)ACHARD ALEX 125 15.00    
CHEYENNE MOON Apr06 Jun06 Apr26 Apr06 Mar02 (wiggins lon)SAEZ GABRIEL 125 15.00    
ANGEL OF FAITH Feb28 Jan17 Dec22 Jan18 Dec21 (asmussen steve)ROSARIO JOEL 125 4.00    
LIFE ADVICE Oct09 Sep16 Aug28 Jun24 Jun06 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 125 5.00 19% 4.20    
10  HOLD MY HALO Mar22 Mar01 Dec27 Oct07 Sep16 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 125 15.00    
11  TIZNTSHELOVELY Mar04 Jan03 Dec16 Oct26 Sep11 (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
SCR  MALIBU SMART Feb28 Jan19 Dec21 Mar30 Mar10 (hartman chris)CURTIS BEN 125 5.00    
SCR  TACO CAT BACKWARDS Mar04 Feb07 Jan09 Dec15 Nov13 (troiani niccol)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00    
SCR  WHAT IF Apr19 Mar28 Mar15 Feb12 Jan17 (bahena i)RODRIGUEZ A 118 20.00    
 
CD-9   04/26/2025 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Roxelana Purse ($200K) 4UP M/F PT- 9:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NON VIOLENCE Apr04 Mar04 Feb01 May27 Aug13 (calhoun wi)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 4.50    
  (by VIOLENCE out of SINGAVICTORYSONG by HARD SPUN)
SANDY BOTTOM Feb23 Dec26 Nov15 Oct21 Sep10 (mccarthy micha)ROSARIO JOEL 118 2.50    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of STARLIT DAYDREAM by CAN THE MAN)
LADY MOSCATO Mar29 Feb23 Jan25 Dec22 Oct09 (lukas wayne)JUAREZ NIK 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of THEYCALLMELADYLUCK by DIXIE UNION)
TRIPOLINA Mar28 Feb24 Feb02 Dec22 Nov09 (hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00 26% 2.90    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of BALLYKISS by STREET BOSS)
SCR  MIUCCIA Feb08 Dec29 Oct19 Aug31 Jul13 (delgado gu)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
  (by MITOLE out of BAY HARBOR by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
HARBOR SPRINGS Feb22 Nov24 Oct16 Sep15 Aug17 (foley greg)ORTIZ JR 118 3.00 44% 1.30    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of NORTHERN MICHIGAN by BROKEN VOW)
GIRLS WEEKEND Feb06 Dec22 Nov10 Sep25 Aug17 (beckman whi)CANNON DECLAN 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by WORLD OF TROUBLE out of ISLAND LOVE SONG by DEHERE)
MINK'S PALACE Dec22 Oct19 Sep15 Aug11 Jun22 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of SCATTERING MINK by SCAT DADDY)
 
CD-10   04/26/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT-10:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STUDENY Apr13 Mar16 Dec07 Nov16   (vance d)LANERIE J 118 6.00    
OUTDOOR CAT         (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
SCR  EVAN ON EARTH Nov22 Nov08 May04 Jan27 Dec30 (foley greg)ORTIZ JR 125 1.40    
BIG ROG         (king barr)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00    
BERNIEDOTT         (stewart d)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
OUTOFPI Mar12 Feb23 Jan25 Dec28 Dec13 (gonzalez re)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 12.00    
WHERE Y'AT Mar13         (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
SHEPHERD Apr08 Mar08 Feb23 Jan25 Dec29 (mcpeek kenneth)ORTIZ L 118 4.50 25% 3.10    
SERGEANT CAPPS Apr08 Jan04 Oct27 Oct04 Aug29 (capps st)RODRIGUEZ A 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
10  VINO DOMINUS Sep18 Aug07       (drury thomas)MONCADA IRVING 113 6.00 49% 1.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.