Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Thistledown
Thursday - September 26, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TDN-1   WIN (6/5/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/5/1/3)-(6/5/4/1/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/5/1/3)-(6/5/4/1/3)-(6/5/4/1/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
    DD (6/5/1/3)-(5/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/5/1/3)-(5/2)-(5/3/4) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
TDN-2   WIN (5/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/2)-(5/2/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (5/2)-(5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    DD (5/2)-(5/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/2)-(5/3/4)-(2/5/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TDN-3   WIN (5/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/3/4)-(5/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/3/4)-(5/3/4)-(5/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (5/3/4)-(2/5/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/3/4)-(2/5/3)-(4/3/5) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
TDN-4   WIN (2/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/5/3)-(2/5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/5/3)-(2/5/3)-(2/5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (2/5/3)-(4/3/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/5/3)-(4/3/5)-(4/3/5) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
TDN-5   WIN (4/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/5)-(4/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/5)-(4/3/5)-(4/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (4/3/5)-(4/3/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/3/5)-(4/3/5)-(1/4/8/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
TDN-6   WIN (4/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/5)-(4/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/5)-(4/3/5)-(4/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (4/3/5)-(1/4/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/3/5)-(1/4/8/7)-(2/1/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
TDN-7   WIN (1/4/8/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/8/7)-(1/4/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/8/7)-(1/4/8/7)-(1/4/8/7) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
    DD (1/4/8/7)-(2/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TDN-8   WIN (2/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/3)-(2/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/3)-(2/1/3)-(2/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TDN-1   09/26/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($16K) Purse ($20.8K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IPPOLITO'S WONDER Sep04 Jun11 May04 Jan24 Dec26 (casalinova tina)VIGIL NOEL 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  STRIKE PLATE Sep09 Aug28 Aug19 Aug07   (langley josh)TERRAZA GERMAN 119 5.00    
3  WHY KENNY WHY Sep04 Aug19 Aug07 Jul29 Jul01 (c)RODRIGUEZ SAMUEL 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  RADIO SILENT Sep04 Jun26 Jun01 May15 May01 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 115 3.50 ★    
5  CINSAULT Sep05 Jul31 Jun26 May29 May13 (rone mike)AVILES YAN 115 6.00 10% 8.80    
6  BUMPKIN Aug28 Aug07 Jul22 Jul01 May29 (meyers shane)BRACHO A 119 2.50 54% 0.80    
7  JODHPUR Sep05 Feb15 Sep05 Aug15 Jul06 (radosevich jef)HOUGHTON D 115 8.00    
8  BIG TIME FLIRT Sep05 Aug19 Jul25 Jul11 Jun26 (erdel jo)FERNANDEZ R 119 4.50    
9  AGNELLO CITY Sep05 Aug19 Jul25 Jul01 Jun11 (skerrett jef)ROSARIO L 119 12.00    
 
TDN-2   09/26/2024 3630ft DIRT RC6 GOOD Optional Claiming ($16K) Purse ($23.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LIBERTY BELLE Sep11 Aug15 Jul25 Jul08 Jun10 (winters miche)SIMPSON JASON 121 15.00    
2  RENO TOUCH Aug13 Jul11 May30 May15 Apr24 (rone mike)HOUGHTON D 119 5.00 20% 3.90    
3  TIZ INDEPENDENCE Aug13 Jul23 Jul02 Jun11 May22 (skerrett jeff)BRACHO A 119 3.50 ★    
4  LOFTHOUSE Jul24 Jul02 May23 Apr27 Mar17 (huffman candace)BOWEN ROCCO 119 3.00    
5  THE SWEATY FOX Aug13 Jul25 Jun24 Jun03 Apr20 (skerrett jeff)BARBARAN ERIK 121 1.80 54% 0.80    
6  TWILIGHT VISION Jul02 May01 Oct01 Sep13 Aug10 (ja)SALAZAR FERNANDO 119 4.00    
 
TDN-3   09/26/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($16K) Purse ($21.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WILDCAT BILL Sep09 Aug20 Feb15 Jan22 Jan01 (radosevich jeff)AVILES YAN 119 5.00    
SCR  MIDNIGHT VOYAGE Sep03 Aug21 Jul04 Jun05 May09 (yoder )BATISTA ALBERTO 115 2.00    
3  CONDEMNATION Sep09 Aug20 Jul25 Oct23 Oct13 (morales saul)BERRIOS HECTOR 119 3.00 30% 2.30    
4  STARS N SPACE Aug06 Jul17 Jun27 May22 May07 (jackson james )HOUGHTON D 119 15.00 8% 11.60    
5  STUNT MAN Jun18 May18 Apr29 Apr01 Mar13 (morales saul )BRACHO A 119 1.80 37% 1.70    
6  NO MAS CERVEZA Sep09 Aug27 Jul30 Jul11 Jun19 (brown glenroy)CEDILLO MAURO 119 10.00    
 
TDN-4   09/26/2024 3630ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($18.3K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOOD MUSIC Aug28 Aug13 Jul16 May30 May09 (rone mike)HOUGHTON D 123 3.00    
2  YIPPEE KI YAY Aug30 Aug20 Jul16 May28 May07 (radosevich je)BRACHO A 119 2.00 26% 2.80    
3  LUNCHATTHELIZARD Sep17 Sep04 Aug12 Jun27 Oct12 (cline c)BOWEN ROCCO 119 5.00 24% 3.20    
4  RED HOT POWER Sep10 Aug27 Aug06 Jul18 Jul02 (gonzalez dona)TOLEDO S 119 6.00    
5  BUCKEYE RED Apr02 Mar06 Jan15 Dec26 Dec11 (johnson )FERNANDEZ R 119 1.80 26% 2.90    
 
TDN-5   09/26/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($25K) Purse ($30.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HITE Sep03 Aug20 Aug12 Jul15 Jun22 (va)SALAZAR FERNANDO 119 6.00    
SCR  DARK VADER Sep10 Jun07 May15 Mar26 Mar04 (zielinski ric)BRACHO A 119 2.50    
3  OKLAHOMA JOE Aug30 Aug06 Jul16 Jun17 May04 (radosevich justi)AVILES YAN 119 3.50 19% 4.40    
4  MIDNIGHT WARSHIP Apr25 Jun02 Apr26 Mar28 Feb13 (cowans d)NAVAS YOEL 119 1.80 53% 0.90    
5  GONE IN A FLASH Sep10 Aug12 Jul30 Jun13 May15 (zielinski richar)VIGIL NOEL 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  DERBY INCLUDED Dec26 Dec07 Nov14 Oct28 Oct02 (cline c)BOWEN ROCCO 119 5.00    
 
TDN-6   09/26/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($31.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KEY TO SUCCESS Sep05 Aug15 Jul16 Jun22 Jun10 (puhl kim)GONZALEZ A 119 2.00    
2  CANDYMONIUM Sep05 Aug15 Jul16 Jun13 May30 (skerre)BATISTA ALBERTO 119 8.00    
3  GETAWAY BAY Sep11 Aug21 Jul11 Jul02 Jun11 (da)SALAZAR FERNANDO 119 1.60 26% 2.80    
4  TALKIN IN CURSIVE Sep07 Jul24 Jun22 Jun05 Nov25 (vosler s)BOWEN ROCCO 115 3.00 32% 2.10    
5  DANCE MY WAY Sep05 Aug15 Jul18 Jul04 Jun04 (puhl kim)TOLEDO S 119 5.00 8% 12.00    
 
TDN-7   09/26/2024 5610ft DIRT RC11 GOOD Catlaunch Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KELLEHER Aug30 Jul19 Jul04 May30 May01 (tooley jennifer)AVILES YAN 117 1.80 43% 1.30    
  (by CORFU out of HOOSIER HONEY by KEY TO THE KINGDOM)
2  FIRSTHAND JUSTICE Sep04 Apr24 Apr01 Mar11 Feb27 (bailey ricardo)HOUGHTON D 117 20.00    
  (by TIDAL VOLUME out of FLY GOLD AIR by TACTICAL ADVANTAGE)
3  MAY MAYHEM Aug30 Jul19 Jun22 May18 Apr24 (radosevich je)BRACHO A 115 2.50    
  (by MOBIL out of MENDASSITY by TOUCH GOLD)
4  VILLIAN Aug30 Aug12 Jul19 Jun05 May21 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 115 4.50 16% 5.10    
  (by NATIONAL FLAG out of CALLISTO by MALIBU MOON)
5  THAT'S THE WAY Aug30 Aug12 Jul15 Jun22 May27 (radosevich je)BARBARAN ERIK 121 5.00    
  (by CITY WEEKEND out of CAPE FOG by CAPE TOWN)
SCR  NATIONAL STORY Aug31 Jul31 Jul18 Jun27 Jun04 (jensen justin )GILBERT KYLE 117 12.00    
  (by NATIONAL FLAG out of PUNCHLINE STORY by TWO PUNCH)
7  MANGA MAN Aug30 Jul30 Jul09 Jun22 Jun07 (rivera nestor)TOLEDO S 117 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KINGSHIP out of SLIGO KNOWS by SLIGO BAY (IRE))
8  COUNTEVERYBLESSING Aug15 Jul31 Jul15 Jun26 Jun05 (vazquez ivan)HALDAR J 113 8.00 11% 8.50    
  (by FORT LARNED out of SHARI'S QUEEN B by MOBIL)
 
TDN-8   09/26/2024 5280ft DIRT RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($29.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LEMON DROP SHOT Sep02 Aug07 Dec30 Oct06 Sep18 (puhl kim)GONZALEZ A 119 3.00 10% 9.20    
2  IT'S ABOUT TIME Aug19 Jun04 May21 Mar03   (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 117 2.00 55% 0.80    
3  VERBIER (IRE) Sep03 Aug31 Aug06 Jul17 Jul05 (zielinski richar)AVILES YAN 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  MOREAU Sep09 Aug19 Jul07 May30 Apr26 (radosevich je)BRACHO A 123 2.50    
5  QUICK QUICK WHIT Aug07 Jul29 Jul11 Jun24 Jun05 (skerre)BATISTA ALBERTO 119 4.00    
6  BLUNDER Sep05 Aug07 Jul29 Jul10 Jun13 (urieta johanna)PEREZ A 119 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.