Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Thursday - December 14, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (2/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/6/1)-(2/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/6/1)-(2/6/1)-(2/6/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/6/1)-(1/7/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/6/1)-(1/7/4)-(2/6) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-2   WIN (1/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/7/4)-(1/7/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/7/4)-(1/7/4)-(1/7/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/7/4)-(2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/7/4)-(2/6)-(7/4/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-3   WIN (2/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/6)-(2/5/6) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (2/6)-(2/5/6)-(2/5/6) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (2/6)-(7/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/6)-(7/4/3)-(7/3/6) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-4   WIN (7/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/3)-(7/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/4/3)-(7/4/3)-(7/4/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/4/3)-(7/3/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (7/4/3)-(7/3/6)-(5/1/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-5   WIN (7/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/3/6)-(7/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/3/6)-(7/3/6)-(7/3/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/3/6)-(5/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (7/3/6)-(5/1/4)-(5/4/7) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-6   WIN (5/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/4)-(5/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/4)-(5/1/4)-(5/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/4)-(5/4/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/1/4)-(5/4/7)-(2/8/4/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-7   WIN (5/4/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/7)-(5/4/8/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/4/7)-(5/4/8/7)-(5/4/8/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/4/7)-(2/8/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
AQU-8   WIN (2/8/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/8/4/6)-(2/8/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/8/4/6)-(2/8/4/6)-(2/8/4/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   12/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($45K) 2 ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PAPPOU'S LAUGH         (martin f)CARMOUCHE K 119 4.50 8% 11.60    
2  REMEMBER THE NAME Nov10 Oct05 Aug19     (rodriguez rudy )CANCEL ERIC 119 1.00 53% 0.90    
3  GAME MISCONDUCT Oct13 Aug10 Jul09     (delauro edwar)OLVER MADISON 114 10.00    
4  DON VINO VICI Oct13 Sep14 Aug10     (schettino dom)FRANCO MANUEL 119 3.50    
5  THUNDERSLAM Nov10 Oct01       (johnso)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 12.00    
6  LASER SHARP         (terranova )RIVERA R 114 4.00 11% 8.30    
 
AQU-2   12/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($35K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SAINT EROS GIRL Apr14 Jan15 Dec17 Nov25 Nov03 (morley thoma)CASTILLO ISAAC 120 2.50 51% 1.00    
2  TOWERING GAZE Nov08 Oct18 Sep26 Aug28 Aug09 (d'alessandro )SILVERA RUBEN 124 10.00    
3  LEFT LEANING LUCY Nov08 Oct04 Aug29 Jul12 Jun19 (bar)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 124 12.00    
4  CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE Jul28 Jul04 Jun02 May12 Apr06 (baker char)GREENIDGE ELIJAH 113 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  MIDTOWN ROSE Nov17 Oct24 Aug24 Jun23 May31 (moore m)CARMOUCHE K 122 3.00    
6  BEHIND THE COUCH Dec08 Nov08 Sep19 Aug30 Aug08 (englehart jeffr)DAVIS DYLAN 122 4.00    
7  BEAUTIFUL KAREN Sep28 Aug20 Jul27 Jul04 May11 (rodriguez rudy )RUIZ ELISEO 119 3.50 23% 3.30    
 
AQU-3   12/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($75K) 2 F PT- 1:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CONCERTI Aug27 Jul14       (sharp joe)DAVIS DYLAN 120 4.00    
2  P MUTTER PICKLE Nov19         (antonacci phi)FRANCO MANUEL 120 1.20 73% 0.40    
3  VALENTINE GIFT Oct29 Oct01       (ribaudo robe)CASTELLANO J 120 6.00    
4  ALLEY'S SONG Nov18 Oct01       (cox h)CASTILLO ISAAC 118 8.00    
5  UNICORN CAKE Nov18 Oct16 Sep25 Sep01   (englehart jerem)CARMOUCHE K 120 3.50 ★    
6  BERNIETAKESCHARGE Oct29 Aug16 Aug02     (schettino d)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
AQU-4   12/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  QUEENS OVER THREES Nov25 Aug27 Jul19 Jun17 May18 (gyarmati leah)ALPANDER B 120 10.00    
2  ROMAN GODDESS Oct26 Oct07 Sep14 Jul08 Jun10 (rice linda)FRANCO MANUEL 120 4.50    
3  RED PEPPER GRILL Nov03 Oct14 Sep09 Jul22 Jun27 (davis g)RUIZ ELISEO 117 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  ICY REPLY Nov18 Oct26 Sep28 Aug31 Aug12 (ferraro ja)RIVERA R 117 3.00 18% 4.60    
5  SHAMAN PRINCESS Nov18 Oct26 Sep14 Jul22 Jun16 (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 120 4.00    
6  MY GIRL JAL Nov18 Nov03 Sep14 Aug31 Jul13 (legall ricardo )CARMOUCHE K 120 8.00    
7  SHE'S AWESOME Nov18 Nov09 Oct08 Sep20 Jun12 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 1.60 54% 0.90    
 
AQU-5   12/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOLIB Nov14 Nov03 Oct22 Sep24 Aug12 (nevin miche)MCCARTHY TREVOR 124 10.00    
2  EVERYONELOVESLINDA Oct27 Oct13 Aug29 Jul28 May28 (barker edw)RIVERA R 119 3.00    
3  SHESALITTLE EDGY Nov24 Feb24 Jan27 May19 Apr29 (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 120 4.00 15% 5.70    
4  REMAIN ANONYMOUS Oct28 Oct01 Aug21 Nov23 Sep25 (nevin michell)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.50    
5  I'M BUZZY Nov25 Oct27 Jul28 Jul04 Jun18 (reynolds patric)DAVIS DYLAN 122 5.00    
6  TO A T Oct27 Aug24 Jul22 Jun23 Apr30 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 4.00 15% 5.70    
7  TIMED OUT Dec07 Sep28 Aug24 Jul12 Jun14 (noda orlando)CASTILLO ISAAC 124 6.00 29% 2.50    
 
AQU-6   12/14/2023 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($92K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AIN'T BROKE Nov26 Sep21 Aug18 Jul22 Jun25 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 122 1.80 28% 2.60    
2  MURSAL Oct26 Sep22 Aug12 Jul13 Jun04 (dutrow richard )DAVIS DYLAN 118 12.00    
3  STARSHIP DEFIANT Oct04 Sep02 Aug16 Aug06 Jun10 (jacobson davi)FRANCO MANUEL 124 15.00    
4  DOWNTOWN MISCHIEF Jul08 May29 Apr29 Mar18 Feb17 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 2.50 15% 5.90    
5  GIVE ME KISSES Nov05 Dec30 Nov20     (pletcher tod)CASTELLANO J 120 2.50 28% 2.60    
6  ESSAOUIRA Nov01 Sep09 Jun22 May13 Mar12 (dutrow richard )RUIZ ELISEO 115 10.00    
7  GUNFYRE GAL Oct30 Sep23 Aug21 Nov21 Oct25 (servis c)CARMOUCHE K 120 8.00    
 
AQU-7   12/14/2023 5940ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($75K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUST A NYQUIST Nov30 Nov04 Oct19 Sep22 Jul09 (barrera oscar)OLVER MADISON 116 5.00    
2  SARATOGA KISSES Nov19 Oct23 Oct01 Aug28 Aug09 (ryerson t)CARMOUCHE K 123 4.00    
3  SHESASCOLDASICE Nov14 Oct19 Oct02 Sep04 Jul26 (ferraro )DAVIS A 123 15.00    
4  BERNT AGAIN Oct27 Aug16 Jul19 Jul02 May28 (schettino dom)FRANCO MANUEL 118 4.00 28% 2.50    
5  SMOKIE EYES Oct27 Sep04 Aug16 May29 May04 (clement christo)DAVIS DYLAN 118 3.50 48% 1.10    
6  BERNING HONOR Nov05 Aug19 Jun17 May05 Feb26 (schettino do)CASTILLO ISAAC 118 10.00    
7  RACING COLORS Nov16 Oct19 Sep22 Aug18 Aug03 (follett norman)RUIZ ELISEO 116 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  MAGGIE T Jun18 May04 Apr28 Mar12 Feb02 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 118 3.00 ★    
 
AQU-8   12/14/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MUGSY FURY Nov19 Oct27 Sep04 Aug09 Jul07 (davis g)DAVIS KATIE 124 30.00    
  (by BIG BROWN out of MEGHAN'S FURY by KALU)
2  CLEVER FOREVER Nov16 Oct27 Aug27 Nov26   (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 121 1.60 55% 0.80    
  (by LAOBAN out of WAY SMARTER by SMART STRIKE)
3  REFUAH Oct28 Aug27 Aug09 Jul04 Jun09 (walder pete)MCCARTHY TREVOR 124 5.00    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of SMITTEN CAT by TALE OF THE CAT)
4  BEARY FUNNY Nov16 Oct28 Aug27     (donk david)FRANCO MANUEL 121 3.00 10% 8.70    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of BEARS MEASURE by TIZNOW)
5  TWIRLING VINE Oct12 Aug17 Jul07 Jun09 Oct20 (lugovi)MARAGH RAMSAY 124 12.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of OENOPHILE by PULPIT)
6  SCHERZANDO Nov16 Oct12 Sep04 Jul14 Jun25 (sciacca gary)CASTELLANO J 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of FLEET STREAK by MORE THAN READY)
7  DOLLY'S BANK Nov19 Oct27 Sep04 Aug23   (coffey marial)OLVER MADISON 116 20.00    
  (by CENTRAL BANKER out of LEMON DROP DOLLY by LEMON DROP KID)
8  DOMINATION Nov19 Oct27       (pletcher todd )LEZCANO JOSE 121 4.00 11% 7.90    
  (by LAOBAN out of MAY WHO by LION HEART)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.