Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Thistledown
Thursday - July 27, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TDN-1   WIN (2/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/5)-(2/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    DD (2/5)-(4/6/5/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (2/5)-(4/6/5/7)-(8/2/7/3) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
TDN-2   WIN (4/6/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/6/5/7)-(4/6/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/6/5/7)-(4/6/5/7)-(4/6/5/7) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
    PK3 (4/6/5/7)-(8/2/7/3)-(1/3/4/5) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
TDN-3   WIN (8/2/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/2/7/3)-(8/2/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/2/7/3)-(8/2/7/3)-(8/2/7/3) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
    PK3 (8/2/7/3)-(1/3/4/5)-(5/3/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TDN-4   WIN (1/3/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/4/5)-(1/3/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/4/5)-(1/3/4/5)-(1/3/4/5) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
    PK3 (1/3/4/5)-(5/3/1)-(4/5/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
TDN-5   WIN (5/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/3/1)-(5/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/3/1)-(5/3/1)-(5/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/3/1)-(4/5/1)-(7/3/1) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
TDN-6   WIN (4/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/1)-(4/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/5/1)-(4/5/1)-(4/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/5/1)-(7/3/1)-(3/4/6) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
TDN-7   WIN (7/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/3/1)-(7/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/3/1)-(7/3/1)-(7/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (7/3/1)-(3/4/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
TDN-8   WIN (3/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/6)-(3/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/4/6)-(3/4/6)-(3/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TDN-1   07/27/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33.9K) 2 ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  AFFAIR TO REMEMBER         (urieta johanna)BOWEN ROCCO 118 8.00    
  (by CLOUD COMPUTING out of PERIPHERIQUE by CROSS TRAFFIC)
2  FACT NOT FICTION Jul13         (hamm timothy)TORREALBA JG 113 2.50 29% 2.40    
  (by YOSHIDA out of MOTHER NATURE by WINSLOW HOMER)
SCR  KINDERHOOK         (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 118 6.00    
  (by KLIMT out of RADIANT BLING by TOO MUCH BLING)
4  TADZIO Jul13         (radosevich j)BERRIOS HECTOR 118 5.00    
  (by UNCLE LINO out of VICTORIAVANQUISHER by WITH DISTINCTION)
5  MAY MAYHEM Jul13 Jun20       (radosevich je)BRACHO A 118 2.00 27% 2.70    
  (by MOBIL out of MENDASSITY by TOUCH GOLD)
6  AFTER SUNRISE Jun20         (langley joshu)GUERERE ANGEL 118 3.50    
  (by DYNAMIC RACER out of CEYLON SAPPHIRE by MACHO UNO)
 
TDN-2   07/27/2023 3630ft DIRT RC6 GOOD Optional Claiming ($8K) Purse ($20K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BACKSPLASH Jul10 Jun01 May22 May06 Mar28 (mahan jose)HALLEDEEN ROBERT 121 4.50    
2  YEARS AGO Jul17 Jul03 Jun10 May10 Apr10 (trevino stephe)TORREALBA JG 118 10.00    
3  SPECIAL BEACH Jun19 May31 May15 Mar29 Mar15 (mahan p)PAUCAR E 119 4.00    
4  COURTLY Jul10 Jun21 Nov03 Oct04 Sep20 (puhl kim)GONZALEZ A 119 3.00 37% 1.70    
5  LILAC LACE Jun26 May24 Apr30 Mar22 Feb22 (yoder )BATISTA ALBERTO 119 8.00 9% 10.70    
6  DIVINE MARTHA Jul10 Jun21 May30 May06 Apr24 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 123 2.50 31% 2.30    
7  GRAN MAMIBELLA Jun21 Jun01 May02 Apr10 Mar22 (szczepanski e)TOLEDO S 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
TDN-3   07/27/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OPEN OUT Jul03 Jun01 May17 May06 Mar16 (londono j)HOUGHTON D 123 12.00    
2  OWN THE TOWN Jul12 Jun13 May11 Dec03 Oct31 (shanyfelt vale)GONZALEZ A 123 5.00 13% 7.00    
3  YOUVESAIDITALL Jul12 Jun24 Jan17 Jan03 Nov28 (rivera)BATISTA ALBERTO 123 4.00 8% 11.50    
4  RAMIRIN Jul12 Jun14 May22 Dec14 Dec07 (lopez jaci)HALLEDEEN ROBERT 123 12.00    
5  GEH SCHNELL Jul03 Jun24 Jun13 May16 Apr10 (manning richa)GUERERE ANGEL 123 10.00    
6  MR. TRIPLEDOUBLE Jul12 Jun07 May20 Nov22 Nov02 (johnson l)TORREALBA JG 118 3.00    
7  CANDY CRUSHEM Jul11 Nov28 Nov08 Oct25 Oct14 (londono odin )BRACHO A 123 6.00 12% 7.10    
8  DEBDURITE Jul18 Apr15 Apr03 Mar07 Feb21 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 123 2.50 44% 1.30    
 
TDN-4   07/27/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($35.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FACTUM'S STAR Jul13 Jun29 Jun14 May18 Aug25 (kerr n)GONZALEZ A 119 6.00 36% 1.80    
2  CHILTEPIN Jul05 Nov30 Nov14     (huffman cand)BERRIOS HECTOR 115 10.00    
3  BRONZE KETTLE Jun14 May10 Apr12 Mar02 Feb14 (pappada a)BOWEN ROCCO 117 3.50 16% 5.10    
4  WATCHOUTFORWEAVER Dec30 Nov30 Nov14 Oct12 Sep27 (davis scooter)STANLEY O 115 4.50 13% 6.80    
5  DANES HEART Jul04 Jun14 May10 Apr12 Mar29 (vazquez ivan)YARANGA Y 121 3.00 9% 10.40    
6  PLAYING BALL Jul13 Jul04 Jun07 May31 Apr27 (suarez javier)GUERERE ANGEL 119 12.00    
SCR  MARCH MAGIC Jul04 Jun14 May31 Apr27 Apr12 (brown )BATISTA ALBERTO 119 15.00    
8  THE GOSPEL OF MARK Jul04 May31 Apr12 Mar14 Feb27 (vazquez ivan)DIAZ I 119 6.00    
9  SWEET JILL'S JACK Jun09 May31 May16 Apr12 Jan26 (campbell ant)GONZALEZ KEVIN 119 20.00    
SCR  CRIMSON LEGION Jul03 Jun14 Nov08 Sep26 Aug30 (londono o)BRICENO M 109 12.00    
 
TDN-5   07/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($38.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIER ONE Jul06 Jun09 Jun01 May11 Apr25 (fletcher jef)GONZALEZ KEVIN 119 4.00 8% 11.00    
2  UNBRIDLED CAUSE Jul12 Jun27 Jun06 Feb15 Jan31 (morales saul )BARBARAN ERIK 119 2.50    
3  RUN ROCKY Jan05 Nov30 Nov15 Oct26 Oct05 (ma)SALAZAR FERNANDO 119 3.00 11% 8.00    
SCR  LONE BOY Jun27 Jun10 May09 Feb01 Jan05 (bookman)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 119 8.00    
5  WETZEL Jun27 Jun02 May05 Apr06 Nov30 (cline robert)ROSARIO L 115 2.00 55% 0.80    
6  A PRAYER FOR KIDS Jul10 Jun15 May29 May16 Dec01 (rettele ri)HERNANDEZ ALVARO 119 12.00    
 
TDN-6   07/27/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($35.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FAST CLIP Jul10 Jun20 May29 May11 Sep06 (fa)SALAZAR FERNANDO 115 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  COUNTRY RUCKUS Jun20 Apr06 Mar22 Mar06 Feb15 (maddox racha)GONZALEZ KEVIN 119 12.00    
3  KID RUSSELL Jul13 Jun27 Jun15 May16 May09 (juarez lorenzo)TORREALBA JG 114 4.00    
4  HEY EUGENE Jun24 May20 Apr21 Mar25   (maker micha)PETERSON FERRIN 115 1.60 63% 0.60    
5  WILDCAT EXPRESS Jun20 May20 May08 Oct13 Sep13 (poole m)BRACHO A 119 2.50 10% 8.60    
6  FAST AS FAST CAN B Jul06 Apr25 Mar21 Mar01 Jan26 (guidry te)BRICENO M 114 3.50    
 
TDN-7   07/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($14K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNCLEJACKOMO Jul10 Jun10 May30 May13 Apr11 (fa)SALAZAR FERNANDO 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  GUN LAP Jul04 May30 May11 Apr26 Aug18 (jackson james )GONZALEZ A 119 1.60    
3  AWESOME ENOUGH Jul10 Jun10 May17 Apr16 Mar26 (feliciano benny)FELICIANO R 119 4.00 20% 3.90    
4  DOMI Jul11 Jun20 May29 May06 Apr03 (mahan p)PAUCAR E 117 20.00    
5  EL SICARIO May30 May17 Mar30 Mar21 Feb28 (sondej amy)TOLEDO S 119 10.00    
6  MASTER Jul10 Jun10 May17 Mar21 Jan23 (casalinova tin)HOUGHTON D 119 8.00    
7  LED TASSO Jul10 Jun06 May24 Apr26 Mar01 (rone mike)SANCHEZ JEFFREY 117 2.50 58% 0.70    
 
TDN-8   07/27/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($38.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KERRI'S MIRACLE Jun27 May25 Apr27 Mar30 Mar20 (vazquez ivan)HALDAR J 119 15.00    
2  SWEET CHELSEA Jun26 Jun13 May25 Oct13 Sep13 (genovese rich)BARBARAN ERIK 119 15.00    
3  KISS VALENTINA Jul03 Jun14 May23 May06 Mar27 (castro raquel)BRACHO A 115 1.80 42% 1.40    
4  CHILLVILLE Jun01 May06 Sep26 Sep07 Aug22 (lopez jacint)MEJIAS RICARDO 121 1.60 35% 1.90    
5  STATE OF GRACE Jul07 Mar15 Feb15 Jan17 Dec12 (cline robert)ROSARIO L 119 3.00    
6  LUCKY PENNY ROSE May22 Apr27 Apr15 Mar30 Mar15 (vazquez ivan)KEISER CHELSEY 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.