Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - May 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (2)-(2/3/5/4) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    TRI (2)-(2/3/5/4)-(2/3/5/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2)-(6/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    PK3 (2)-(6/5)-(2/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
CD-2   WIN (6/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/5)-(6/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6/5)-(2/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/5)-(2/5/4)-(5/1/4) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CD-3   WIN (2/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/5/4)-(2/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/5/4)-(2/5/4)-(2/5/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/5/4)-(5/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/5/4)-(5/1/4)-(4/1/7) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-4   WIN (5/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/4)-(5/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/4)-(5/1/4)-(5/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/4)-(4/1/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/1/4)-(4/1/7)-(8/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CD-5   WIN (4/1/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/7)-(4/1/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/7)-(4/1/7)-(4/1/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/7)-(8/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/1/7)-(8/3)-(2/4/5/6) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-6   WIN (8/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (8/3)-(8/3/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/3)-(8/3/1/2)-(8/3/1/2) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (8/3)-(2/4/5/6) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (8/3)-(2/4/5/6)-(7/8/1/5) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-7   WIN (2/4/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/4/5/6)-(2/4/5/6/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (2/4/5/6)-(2/4/5/6/9)-(2/4/5/6/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (2/4/5/6)-(7/8/1/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/4/5/6)-(7/8/1/5)-(7/4/12/6) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-8   WIN (7/8/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/8/1/5)-(7/8/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/8/1/5)-(7/8/1/5)-(7/8/1/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/8/1/5)-(7/4/12/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-9   WIN (7/4/12/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/12/6)-(7/4/12/6/11) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/4/12/6)-(7/4/12/6/11)-(7/4/12/6/11) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MR. COMMANDER Apr27 Apr18 Jan13     (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 118 2.50    
2  SUPERCOOL May30 Mar11 Jan23     (foley gre)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 3.00 70% 0.40    
3  HAIL ALLEN Apr29 Apr22 Mar10 Feb04 Jan06 (blair jorda)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 10.00 ★    
4  CHARLIE WHISKEY Apr29 Apr08 Mar09 May27   (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 4.00 ★    
5  CHOWMEIN Apr29 Apr16 Mar15 Feb22 Feb03 (kordenbrock matt)BEJARANO R 118 8.00 ★    
6  VELOCIMO Apr19 Mar17 Feb24 Jan11 Dec30 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00    
7  TEXAS TED Apr29 Apr14 Mar25 Feb24 Jan06 (barkley ja)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 4.50    
 
CD-2   05/21/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($75K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  PRECURSORY Apr13 Mar15 Feb23 Oct14 Aug25 (tomlinson)HERNANDEZ J 123 3.50 13% 6.50    
2  TRANSPARENCY Mar08 Feb09       (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 123 4.00    
SCR  MUSIC APP Apr22         (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 6.00    
4  RAINDROPS ON ROSES Apr27 Mar30 Aug03 Jul05   (huffman pat)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 6.00    
5  COMEDY ACT Apr30 Mar16 Feb18 Jan21 Dec18 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 123 2.50 21% 3.80    
6  STORY HOUR Apr27 Mar02 Jan18 Dec29 Nov24 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 123 3.00 30% 2.40    
 
CD-3   05/21/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CLASSY SOCKS Mar23 Mar05 Feb25 Feb04 Jan13 (vance d)ROCCO S 123 6.00    
2  HOCUS (GB) Apr16         (thompson mich)CANNON DECLAN 123 3.00 53% 0.90    
3  IGNITIS Apr23 Apr01 Mar05 Feb10 Jan20 (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 4.00    
4  AMERICAN ICON May13 May03 Apr21 Feb24 Feb03 (vasquez sr)COURT K 123 12.00 5% 17.90    
5  RIDER'S SPECIAL Apr29 Apr01 Jun04 Apr30 Apr02 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 2.50 16% 5.30    
6  INSOLITO Apr14 Mar17 Mar04 Jan26 Dec03 (estvanko r)CORRALES GERARDO 123 2.00    
 
CD-4   05/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COUSIN ODELL         (foley gre)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  FULL TIME JOB Apr18         (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00    
3  LEFT POCKET MONEY Sep24         (pittman bonnie)REYES FRANK 124 20.00    
4  GARY'S FLYING LION         (o'connor rober)MACHADO LUAN 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  SCOTCH NO ROCKS Apr29 Feb17 Feb04 Dec30 Dec08 (roberson )HERNANDEZ J 124 8.00 6% 14.50    
SCR  WITH PURPOSE Feb04         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 1.80 62% 0.60    
7  MIDWAY MIRACLE Apr29 Apr16 Feb09 Jan26 Jan12 (lucas t )RODRIGUEZ A 119 4.00    
8  KING OF KENTUCKY Apr28 Mar25 Mar10 Feb03   (o'neill doug)HEARD TYLER 118 2.00    
 
CD-5   05/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SWITZER Mar05 Oct16 Sep14 Aug12 Jun22 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 4.00 17% 4.90    
SCR  HAP'S VICTORY Apr28 Feb10 Jan28     (colebrook ben)NAVAS YOEL 118 4.00    
3  VALE Mar18 Feb12 Jan13 Nov23 Oct16 (forster t)LANERIE J 123 6.00    
4  INFILTRATOR Mar09 Feb20       (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 3.50 32% 2.10    
5  LOUISIANIMAL Mar31 Nov03 Oct02     (foley gre)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
SCR  FRENCH COMPOSER Apr12 Mar10 Feb12 Jan15 Dec31 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 123 12.00    
7  BABY QUINN Apr12 Jun22 May19 May03   (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 123 10.00 9% 9.90    
8  TOWN BRANCH Apr15 Mar05 Feb11 Jan13 Dec17 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 2.50    
 
CD-6   05/21/2023 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CANDY LIGHT Dec26 Nov13 Oct13 Sep06 Jul14 (motion g)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 ★    
2  INTRIGUE Apr01 Feb23 Jan26 Dec30 Nov30 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 122 12.00 ★    
3  HENRIETTA TOPHAM Apr16 Nov05 Oct08 Sep10 Aug07 (mulcahy geoff)GRAHAM J 122 3.00 11% 7.80    
4  WAVE OF GOODNESS Jan21 Dec26 Oct23 Sep24 Jun03 (hernandez )MURRILL MITCHELL 122 10.00    
5  ARM CANDY (IRE) Apr21 Apr01 Jan26 Dec15 Oct21 (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00    
6  JUSTIFY MY LOVE (BRZ) Apr21 Jan28 Nov19 Oct20 Sep14 (lobo paul)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 12.00    
7  VALENTINA DAY Apr21 Mar24 Oct21 Sep24 Aug14 (colebrook ben)NAVAS YOEL 115 10.00    
8  FAST AS FLIGHT Apr21 Mar04 Jan29 Dec02 Nov03 (lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.00 64% 0.60    
 
CD-7   05/21/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SMOKE WAGON         (engler j)RODRIGUEZ A 113 10.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of CRIMINAL MISCHIEF by INTO MISCHIEF)
2  WILD THINKER Apr16 Mar02       (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 39% 1.60    
  (by LORD NELSON out of INVESTED PROSPECT by ABRAAJ)
3  TOP SECRET Nov09         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 124 15.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
4  CUORE SACRO Aug19         (lynch a)GRAHAM J 118 4.50 24% 3.10    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of BACCHANAL LADY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
5  BRITERDAYZAHEAD Apr16 Sep03       (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 11% 8.50    
  (by GIRVIN out of PURE GREY by TOO MUCH BLING)
6  LUDWIG Apr29 May07 Apr02 Feb26   (bauer phi)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MASTERY out of TEXAS GEM by TIZNOW)
7  UNWRAPPED         (wong jonathan)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of BELLEOFTHEBEACH by MASTER COMMAND)
8  HOLY MOLY ABRAHAM         (lovell denn)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 30.00    
  (by RAISON D'ETAT out of REASON TO MEDAL by MEDALLIST)
9  CLOUD WITHOUT REIN Mar19 Feb11 Jan14 Dec19 Nov19 (barnett bobb)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 15.00 ★    
  (by FROSTED out of LITTLE JUDE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
10  BOLT ACTION         (stall m)LANERIE J 118 12.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of AMERISTRALIA by FASTNET ROCK (AUS))
SCR  STORMIN ARMY Mar18 Feb25 Jan28 Aug13 Jun30 (vance dav)LEPAROUX R 118 30.00    
  (by ARMY MULE out of DREAM SEQUENCE by SMILE)
SCR  ZAPHOD         (catalano w)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of DANCING ANNA by CUVEE)
13  SON OF A GRAY         (pittman bonnie)REYES FRANK 118 20.00    
  (by TAMARKUZ out of JENNIFER ASHTON by BLACK MOONSHINE)
 
CD-8   05/21/2023 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PAGE ONE Apr13 Feb24 Jan27 Nov04 Sep22 (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 123 4.50 18% 4.70    
2  APPEAL DENIED Apr21 Feb12 Nov25 Nov04 Sep22 (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 125 15.00    
3  CHARTER OAK Apr22 Apr02 Mar19 Mar03 Feb04 (vance r)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 30.00    
4  GREENER PASTURES Apr22 Mar10 Jan27 Jun19 May30 (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 123 15.00    
5  BLUE LIGHT Apr08 Mar11       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00 8% 11.20    
SCR  FAVORITE OUTLAW Apr29 Apr01 Mar05 Sep14 Aug20 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 4.00    
7  SAUDI CROWN Apr16         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 1.60 28% 2.60    
8  SWEET CHERRY PIE Apr14 Mar04       (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50 24% 3.10    
9  ANGKOR May03 Mar25 Feb24 Dec18 Nov25 (bauer a)BEJARANO R 123 12.00    
 
CD-9   05/21/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG ELM Mar17 Jan28       (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 118 15.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of HOKEY OKEY by LONHRO (AUS))
2  HARRY HOOD Mar12         (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00    
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of DESTINY UNBOUND by GALILEO (ARG))
3  ILLEGAL         (medina ro)LEPAROUX R 125 20.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of ISLAND SCHOOL by A.P. INDY)
4  FIGHTERTOWN Feb26 Jan21 Dec24 Oct23 Sep03 (mott william)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00 21% 3.70    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of IN STEP by BAWLD HORNET)
5  CRUSADER CONRAD         (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 118 12.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of GOLDEN SHEBA by CORONADO'S QUEST)
6  NOW THAT ICAN ROCK Apr20 Mar25 Feb17     (michael brian)COURT K 118 12.00 14% 6.10    
  (by FLINTSHIRE out of WESTSIDE SINGER by GONE WEST)
7  CAROOM Apr27 Mar01 Jan22 Dec17 Nov30 (catalano w)LOVEBERRY JARETH 125 3.50 28% 2.60    
  (by FLINTSHIRE out of ELLE BELLE by EL PRADO (IRE))
8  HIGHEST RATED (IRE) Apr20         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
  (by FRANKEL (GB) out of BELESTA by XAAR (GB))
9  ATHENS MOON         (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 12.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of GASP by TINAJERO)
10  ROENICK Apr27 Apr01 Mar11 Aug26 Jul31 (corrigan jim)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 30.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of SEE ROCK CITY by TAPIT)
11  TAKING CANDY Aug20         (devaux ch)TORRES A 118 6.00 ★    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of TAKING AIM by TRAPPE SHOT)
12  ST. NEOTS Apr20 Mar15 Aug27 Jul16   (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00 14% 6.00    
  (by FLINTSHIRE out of ALLIE by BAYOU HEBERT)
SCR  OSCARGOT         (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of WINE AND DYNE by DYNAFORMER)
SCR  ACCIDENT Apr08 Mar04 Feb10 Jan21 Jan07 (short th)RODRIGUEZ A 113 10.00    
  (by TALE OF VERVE out of NOT JAVA by NOT BOURBON)
SCR  DECANTED Apr08 Feb10 Nov18 Oct16 Sep14 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of KAHRUMANA by SHAMARDAL)
SCR  MILLERS RITE May05 Apr08 Dec31 Dec10 Oct30 (vance thom)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 12.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of ROMANTIC FROLIC by VINDICATION)
SCR  STAND PROUD Apr22 Mar23 Mar12 Jan27 Dec16 (baker jam)TORRES A 125 5.00    
  (by FLASHBACK out of LIL INDY by BUCKLEY BOY)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.