Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Turf Paradise
Saturday - March 04, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TUP-1   WIN (5/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/1)-(5/6/1/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/6/1)-(5/6/1/2/4)-(5/6/1/2/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (5/6/1)-(7/4/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/6/1)-(7/4/2)-(4/3/1/6) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
TUP-2   WIN (7/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/2)-(7/4/2/3/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/4/2)-(7/4/2/3/8)-(7/4/2/3/8) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (7/4/2)-(4/3/1/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/4/2)-(4/3/1/6)-(7/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
TUP-3   WIN (4/3/1/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/1/6)-(4/3/1/6/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/3/1/6)-(4/3/1/6/7)-(4/3/1/6/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (4/3/1/6)-(7/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/3/1/6)-(7/4)-(6/4/1/7) 32 $0.50 $16.00 
TUP-4   WIN (7/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/4)-(7/4/1/8/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (7/4)-(7/4/1/8/2)-(7/4/1/8/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/4)-(6/4/1/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (7/4)-(6/4/1/7)-(5/3/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
TUP-5   WIN (6/4/1/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/1/7)-(6/4/1/7/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/4/1/7)-(6/4/1/7/2)-(6/4/1/7/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/4/1/7)-(5/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/4/1/7)-(5/3/6)-(7/5/8) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
TUP-6   WIN (5/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/3/6)-(5/3/6/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/3/6)-(5/3/6/4)-(5/3/6/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/3/6)-(7/5/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/3/6)-(7/5/8)-(3/8/9/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
TUP-7   WIN (7/5/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/5/8)-(7/5/8/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/5/8)-(7/5/8/2/6)-(7/5/8/2/6) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (7/5/8)-(3/8/9/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TUP-8   WIN (3/8/9/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/8/9/1)-(3/8/9/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/8/9/1)-(3/8/9/1)-(3/8/9/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TUP-1   03/04/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($10.4K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TAPIT AT MIDNIGHT Feb13 Jan25 Jan02 Dec20 Nov26 (lucarelli frank)MAWING A 124 15.00 11% 8.10    
2  SPIRE Feb19 Feb09 Jan25 Jan12 Dec20 (rycroft riley)LOPEZ KARLO 124 3.50 ★    
3  FULLBRIDLEDPHANTOM Feb06 Jan18 Jan04 Dec14 Nov28 (vanwinkle)VALENZUELA A 124 4.50    
4  EROTIC Feb13 Feb02 Jan18 Dec26 Nov29 (potts ashley )LARA EZEQUIEL 124 4.00 ★    
5  PARLEY STREET Feb09 Jan30 Jan10 Dec20 Nov15 (ferguson cur)GARCIA ENRIQUE 124 4.00 34% 1.90    
6  UPPER ROOM Feb04 Dec27 Nov28 Nov14 Sep17 (toye joe)CRUZ M 124 3.00 25% 3.00    
7  RANCHER Feb14 Feb02 Jan12 Dec19 Nov23 (esquibel mar)SARMIENTO RIGO 124 8.00    
 
TUP-2   03/04/2023 4290ft DIRT RC2 FAST Mdn Opt Clm ($30K) Purse ($20.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:34
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STREET HUMOR Feb06 Nov04 Oct02 Aug18 Jan01 (ortiz sr)VERGARA P 124 6.00    
2  CENTAURUS Feb06 Jan03 Aug28     (martinez a)ARBOLEDA ALDO 124 20.00 10% 8.60    
3  FOREIGN INFLUENCE         (belvoir vann)ZUNINO L 124 5.00 ★    
4  TWICE FOOLED Feb06 Jan17 Dec26     (belvoir van)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 3.50 19% 4.30    
5  REFUSE TO TESTIFY         (oberholtzer kev)CORBETT W 124 8.00    
6  AMADMADWORLD Feb20 Feb08 Jan24 Jan03 Nov28 (torres-casas al)CRUZ M 124 10.00    
7  BURNLEY Feb06         (palma milto)MARTI ALEXANDER 124 2.00 49% 1.10    
8  ROYAL JOKER Feb20 Jan28 Jan17 Dec26   (valerio raym)SARMIENTO RIGO 124 6.00 ★    
 
TUP-3   03/04/2023 4950ft TURF RC6 FIRM Optional Claiming ($10K) Purse ($13.4K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOLLY EXPRESS Feb19 Feb02 Jan19 Dec22 Dec14 (bullene mic)CONNING CRYSTAL 122 8.00 10% 8.60    
2  SENSEMAKER Feb11 Dec20 Nov08 Oct01 Sep04 (ortiz sr)CORBETT W 122 10.00    
3  CATS TOUCH Feb13 Feb02 Jan23 Dec15 Nov16 (oberholtzer kevi)ZUNINO L 124 5.00 21% 3.90    
4  OF GOOD REPORT Feb16 Feb08 Jan25 Jan12 Dec26 (woolley ben)HERNANDEZ HARRY 122 2.00 33% 2.10    
5  PALACE PRINCE Jan31 Jan18 Dec26 Dec08 Nov24 (silva pabl)LEON A 122 3.00    
6  UPO Feb06 Jan18 Dec14 Nov21 Nov08 (he)MARTINEZ NAHERD 122 12.00 7% 12.60    
7  MOVE OVER (GB) Feb09 Jan25 Dec20 Dec08 Nov21 (si)DA FAUSTO 122 4.00 ★    
 
TUP-4   03/04/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($10.4K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISS AGGIE BLING Feb19 Feb08 Jan18 Jan03 Dec14 (rosales jorge)VALDES ALEXIS 124 2.50 ★    
2  DODROPIN Feb09 Jun24 Jun17 Jun04 May15 (toye joe)ANAYA V 124 5.00 ★    
3  TOTHEMOONANDBACK Feb09 Jan23 Jan11 Jan02 Dec17 (lavanway day)GARCIA ENRIQUE 124 6.00    
4  MULLIGAN Feb09 Jan19 Dec26 Sep10 Aug22 (villamar candel)LOPEZ KARLO 124 8.00 7% 13.90    
SCR  NO KITTEN Jan19 Dec17 Nov14 Oct09 Sep14 (denny travi)CONNING CRYSTAL 124 12.00    
6  BIG BLUE NOTE Feb21 Feb09 Jan18 Jan04 Dec21 (hernandez migue)LEON A 124 6.00    
7  KEBA LUCKY DAY Feb16 Jan30 Jan04 Nov25 Oct14 (bi)MARTINEZ NAHERD 124 5.00 67% 0.50    
8  TIMBERLAKE GAGE Feb19 Feb09 Jan30 Oct15 Oct10 (baze lisa)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 4.00 ★    
 
TUP-5   03/04/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($12.4K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SILVER DASH Jan25 Dec20 Nov16 Sep15 Aug28 (martinez esteba)CRUZ M 124 3.50 12% 7.40    
2  MAD LUTHER Feb19 Jan18 Jan07 Dec01 Nov19 (matt l)CORBETT W 124 4.50 ★    
SCR  REDACTION Feb13 Feb04 Sep17 Aug29 Aug22 (ortiz fra)VALENZUELA A 124 8.00    
4  SIR DEPUTY Feb19 Jan31 Jan07 Dec20 Dec01 (potts ashley )LARA EZEQUIEL 124 6.00 23% 3.30    
5  BIG ENDEAVOR Feb13 Jan12 Dec13 Nov14 Sep11 (brown jared)MAWING A 124 5.00    
6  THE PUBLIC HALO Feb20 Jan30 Jan17 Dec20 Nov30 (hernandez mig)VALDES ALEXIS 124 3.00 33% 2.00    
7  RECKONING DAY Feb19 Feb09 Dec18 Oct21 Sep25 (woolley ben)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 4.00 7% 13.40    
 
TUP-6   03/04/2023 4950ft TURF RC6 FIRM Optional Claiming ($10K) Purse ($13.4K) 4UP M/F PT- 5:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LOOPY Jan28 Dec21 Dec08 Nov26 Sep28 (si)DA FAUSTO 122 3.50    
SCR  JOY IN THE BATTLE Jan28 Jan09 Dec21 Nov30 Nov12 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 122 2.50 19% 4.20    
3  LILA'S LUCKY LADY Feb21 Feb07 Jan24 Jan14 Dec28 (asprino alfredo)LOPEZ KARLO 124 6.00 17% 5.00    
4  APART OF MY CHARM Feb11 Jan24 Jan11 Dec15 Nov30 (fales matt)CONNING CRYSTAL 124 8.00 ★    
5  METAROSE Feb20 Jan31 Jan14 Jan04 Dec19 (hernandez m)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 3.00 32% 2.10    
6  MI REYNA Feb20 Jan19 Oct29 Oct08 Aug27 (palma milton)CRUZ M 122 6.00 11% 8.40    
7  MS SALLY Jan18 Jan03 Nov30 Sep12 Aug15 (o'brien debb)GARCIA ENRIQUE 122 10.00    
 
TUP-7   03/04/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8.5K) Purse ($13.4K) 4UP ALL PT- 6:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FRANKS FIX IT Feb13 Jan25 Jan05 Nov28 Nov05 (diodoro rober)LARA EZEQUIEL 124 8.00    
2  JUST PICK IT UP Feb02 Jan19 Jan03 Dec19 Nov29 (metz jeffrey)LOPEZ KARLO 124 10.00 ★    
3  LAST RENEGADE Feb18 Jan28 Jan10 Dec19 Nov19 (gutierrez q)MAWING A 124 8.00    
4  LIFESBEENGOODSOFAR Feb13 Sep28 Sep26 Sep07 Aug23 (matt wendel)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 6.00    
5  OLDER BROTHER Feb19 Feb09 Jan26 Dec26 Oct23 (rosales jorge)VALDES ALEXIS 124 3.50 15% 5.60    
6  TRY TO CAPTURE Feb13 Jan26 Jan10 Dec19 Nov25 (dennison dan)SARMIENTO RIGO 124 2.50 ★    
7  SHORT RIB Feb13 Jan23 Jan02 Dec19 Dec08 (ferguson )VALENZUELA A 124 4.50 48% 1.10    
8  MAJOR MUNNINGS Feb19 Jan26 Jan10 Jul24 Jul01 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 124 6.00 9% 9.90    
 
TUP-8   03/04/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($20K) Purse ($23.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISS GLORIOUS Feb22 Nov21 Nov05 Sep30 Sep16 (hernandez m)MORALES ALLYSSA 122 2.50 12% 7.20    
2  ASENA Jun22 Jun08 May18 Apr15   (lund valorie)ZUNINO L 122 6.00    
3  MS PARKSIDE Feb07 Jan04 Dec15 Aug07 Jul10 (lucarelli f)HERNANDEZ HARRY 122 5.00 25% 3.00    
4  BORN TO REIGN Jan25 Jan09 Dec17 Nov07 Sep12 (martinez o )MARTI ALEXANDER 122 20.00    
SCR  LARIMAR Feb22 Jan14 Jan04 Dec10 Nov21 (gutierrez juan )CRUZ M 122 12.00 7% 13.30    
6  FLO TIME Oct02 Aug14 Jul17     (martinez a)ARBOLEDA ALDO 122 10.00    
7  SEMI SWEET Nov23 Sep12 Aug15 Jul16 Apr26 (ortiz manue)CONNING CRYSTAL 122 8.00    
8  DISCERNMENT Feb07 Jan25 Dec27 Nov30 Nov07 (diodoro rober)LARA EZEQUIEL 124 3.50 19% 4.30    
9  LEXINGTON HUMOR Feb11 Dec31 Nov19 Oct29 Aug27 (morgan dan)VERGARA P 122 4.50 17% 5.10    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.