Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Saturday - January 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (5/1/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/1/7/3)-(5/1/7/3/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/1/7/3)-(5/1/7/3/2)-(5/1/7/3/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (5/1/7/3)-(4/2/6/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/1/7/3)-(4/2/6/3)-(5/3) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
AQU-2   WIN (4/2/6/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/2/6/3)-(4/2/6/5/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/2/6/3)-(4/2/6/5/3)-(4/2/6/5/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (4/2/6/3)-(5/3) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/2/6/3)-(5/3)-(1/5/8) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-3   WIN (5/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/3)-(5/1/3/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/3)-(5/1/3/8)-(5/1/3/8) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (5/3)-(1/5/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/3)-(1/5/8)-(5/3/8/4/1) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
AQU-4   WIN (1/5/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/8)-(1/5/2/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/5/8)-(1/5/2/8)-(1/5/2/8) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (1/5/8)-(5/3/8/4/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/5/8)-(5/3/8/4/1)-(2/6/7/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
AQU-5   WIN (5/3/8/4/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/3/8/4/1)-(5/3/8/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    TRI (5/3/8/4/1)-(5/3/8/4)-(5/3/8/4) 30 $0.50 $15.00 
    DD (5/3/8/4/1)-(2/6/7/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/3/8/4/1)-(2/6/7/5)-(4/1/2) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
AQU-6   WIN (2/6/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/7/5)-(2/6/7/5/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (2/6/7/5)-(2/6/7/5/4)-(2/6/7/5/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (2/6/7/5)-(4/1/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/6/7/5)-(4/1/2)-(5/2/3/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-7   WIN (4/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/2)-(4/1/2/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/1/2)-(4/1/2/7)-(4/1/2/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/1/2)-(5/2/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/1/2)-(5/2/3/4)-(1/7/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-8   WIN (5/2/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/2/3/4)-(5/2/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/2/3/4)-(5/2/3/4)-(5/2/3/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/2/3/4)-(1/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
AQU-9   WIN (1/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/7/4)-(1/7/4/8/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/4)-(1/7/4/8/3)-(1/7/4/8/3) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   01/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($35K) 4UP ALL PT-12:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAKART Jan08 Dec01 Nov13 Oct14 Aug05 (ryerson t)CARMOUCHE K 122 3.50 21% 3.70    
2  ESCAPE MISSION Dec11 Nov13       (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 122 4.00 ★    
3  TREVOR BARDETTE Jan12 Dec15       (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 117 3.00 9% 10.00    
4  IGOTTAHAVEIT Jan01 May28 May06 Feb21   (dunham g)OLVER MADISON 112 20.00    
5  PATRICK THE GREAT Dec11 Aug11 Jul10 May29 Apr30 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 2.50 32% 2.10    
6  TIZA BROWN Jan05 Dec17 Dec11 Nov09 Oct26 (persau)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 15.00    
7  CHIEF ENGINEER Dec11 Dec03 Nov13 Oct22 Sep11 (cash j)CANCEL ERIC 122 4.00 16% 5.20    
 
AQU-2   01/21/2023 5940ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 4UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KONG LOVES A FIGHT Jan08 Dec15 Nov13 Nov05 Sep03 (noda orlando)DAVIS DYLAN 123 1.80    
2  PHOEBE'S FROSTY Jan05 Nov25 Aug18 Jul29 Jan16 (bake)HUAYAS (JASON) 116 2.00 27% 2.70    
3  CENTAVO Jan15 Dec29 Dec09 Nov11 Jul08 (chatt)HERNANDEZ OMAR 113 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  B C GLORY DAYS Jan01 Dec09 Nov11 Oct14 Sep17 (barrera oscar)CASTILLO AMIN 120 3.50 28% 2.60    
5  GIRAMONTE Jan01 Nov26 Nov05 Oct06 Sep04 (gyarmati leah)LUZZI J 120 3.50 ★    
6  LORD BROWNIE Dec31 Oct15 Sep01 Jul24 May28 (sciacca gary)HARKIE K 120 12.00 10% 9.10    
 
AQU-3   01/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($35K) 3 ALL PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOT ROD LINCOLN Dec17 Sep22 Sep04     (rodri)HERNANDEZ OMAR 113 6.00 ★    
1A  M. C. DOUBLE R Dec17 Nov17 Oct22 Sep22 Aug14 (rodr)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 6.00    
2  LIEUTENANT SAM Dec11 Nov17       (bond har)GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 15.00    
3  THE CATILLAC KID Dec11 Oct17       (baker charlton)DAVIS DYLAN 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SOMAMA BEACH Jan08 Dec17 Sep22 Sep05   (davis edmund)HARKIE K 120 20.00    
5  MAMA'S GOLD Nov26 Aug11       (maker michael )LEZCANO JOSE 120 1.40 24% 3.20    
6  MILAGROSO Dec11         (brown r)OLVER MADISON 110 20.00    
SCR  CENTRAL LOVE Nov17 Oct09 Sep22     (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 120 2.50 49% 1.00    
8  WEST STAR Dec30 Nov17 Sep29     (kantarmaci )KOCAKAYA GOKHAN 120 8.00 ★    
9  CAMM' DUKE Dec17 Nov27 Oct21 Jul29 Jun24 (ryerson james )ADORNO ABNER 120 12.00    
 
AQU-4   01/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AFLEET ARLENE Nov27 Oct21 Sep18     (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 123 1.40 43% 1.30    
2  DARN THAT SONG Dec30 Dec09 Nov22 Oct24 Oct10 (sells rachel)HARKIE K 123 6.00 ★    
3  PREDETERMINED Dec29 Dec01 Oct13 Jul08 May27 (sciacc)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 20.00    
4  HANDLE THE TRUTH Dec29 Dec01 Oct28 Sep18 Aug17 (metiv)HERNANDEZ OMAR 113 12.00    
5  AMERICA'S PRIDE Jul31 May19       (morl)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 3.00 7% 12.90    
6  SHEZA RAJUN CAJUN Dec29 Dec01 Jun25 May14   (noda orlando)OLVER MADISON 110 10.00    
SCR  BEN'S SUNNY ISLAND Dec08 Nov10 Oct06 Sep02 Aug11 (englehart chris)DAVIS DYLAN 120 4.00 23% 3.30    
8  MIDMON May23 May09 Apr22 Apr02 Mar06 (clarke d)DAVIS A 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
AQU-5   01/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($44K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CRYPTO CASH Jan15 Oct21 Aug24 Jun30 Jun03 (barrera oscar)CASTILLO AMIN 120 10.00 6% 14.50    
SCR  CARIBBEAN (AUS) Jan01 Dec04 Oct21 Sep30 Sep09 (barrera oscar)OLVER MADISON 113 10.00 ★    
2  GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS Jan07 Dec08 Nov18 Sep30 Sep05 (baker ch)GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 6.00    
3  COOL QUARTET Dec18 Nov14 Oct24 Oct05 Sep14 (atras rob)DAVIS DYLAN 123 3.50 18% 4.40    
4  AIR SHOW Dec18 Nov12 Sep24 Aug24 Jul23 (rodr)HUAYAS (JASON) 116 8.00 7% 12.40    
5  DARK STORM Oct21 Sep17 Aug05 Jul14 Jun30 (kantarmaci )KOCAKAYA GOKHAN 120 4.00 21% 3.80    
6  MY FRIENDS BEER Dec29 Nov30 Nov15 Oct25 Oct10 (bernardini jua)LEZCANO JOSE 123 5.00    
7  BALLYDOOLEY (GB) Jan01 Oct27 Sep30 Aug31 Jul04 (nevin michelle)CARMOUCHE K 123 15.00    
8  OPTIC WAY Nov17 Oct21 Sep30 Sep17 Jul24 (camejo)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 2.50 17% 4.90    
 
AQU-6   01/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($12.5K) Purse ($33K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  QUICK RETURN Dec02 Nov17 Oct16 Sep23 Aug17 (arriaga antoni)LEZCANO JOSE 118 2.50    
2  O'TROUBLE Jan01 Dec08 Oct08 Aug17 Jul17 (jacobson)GOMEZ ANTONIO 113 1.80 33% 2.00    
3  LOST IN ROME Jan06 Dec08 Nov05 Oct15 Oct01 (younghans wi)HARKIE K 120 6.00    
4  ALARM CLOCK Dec11 Nov17 Nov04 Oct14 Oct01 (follett norman)DAVIS KATIE 115 12.00 ★    
5  YES SIR ROBERT Jan07 Dec09 Nov27 Nov11 Oct14 (maldonado)VARGAS A 123 15.00 9% 10.30    
6  DURKIN'S CALL Jan06 Dec02 Nov18 Oct08 Aug31 (baker charlton)DAVIS DYLAN 118 3.50 17% 4.80    
7  POPPY'S PRIDE Jan12 Dec10 Oct21 Jun17 May20 (scia)HUAYAS (JASON) 111 15.00 13% 6.90    
8  CASH NOW Jan01 Dec03 Nov25 Oct27 Oct08 (skelton dawn)CANCEL ERIC 120 12.00    
 
AQU-7   01/21/2023 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($74K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LISTENTOYOURHEART Aug26 Jul10 May14     (handal raymond)DAVIS KATIE 118 8.00 24% 3.20    
2  PRINCE OF PHAROAHS Jan14 Dec08 Nov18 Aug06 Jun26 (kantarmaci )KOCAKAYA GOKHAN 118 8.00 9% 9.70    
3  CHOWDA Dec04 May15 Apr20 Mar27 Feb05 (sciacca gary)CANCEL ERIC 118 20.00    
4  WHO HOO THATS ME Dec10 Oct30 Sep23 Aug26 Jul08 (abreu r)DAVIS DYLAN 120 2.00 30% 2.30    
5  BIG ENGINE Dec30 Nov25 Oct30 Sep23 Sep04 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 5.00    
SCR  ARTHUR'S HOPE Dec09 Nov08 Oct20 Aug16 Jul13 (salazar marco)LOPEZ ANTONIO 120 12.00 14% 6.40    
7  EXCELLENT TIMING Dec10 Sep23 Aug26     (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 118 1.80 ★    
8  BREW PUB Jan07 Dec10 Nov17 Oct22 Sep22 (arenas marce)LAPRIDA JEREMY 118 15.00    
 
AQU-8   01/21/2023 4620ft DIRT RC11 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($100K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SELF ISOLATION Dec03 Nov11 Oct27 Sep22 Aug14 (jacobson david)DAVIS DYLAN 120 6.00    
  (by SQUARE EDDIE out of LOAN SAVANT by SPRING AT LAST)
2  MISS T TOO Dec15 Nov10 Jan06     (mccarthy michae)CANCEL ERIC 118 5.00 25% 2.90    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of MIDNIGHT BALLET by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
3  PIECE OF MY HEART Jan05 Dec08 Nov11 Sep16 Aug07 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 118 4.00 16% 5.10    
  (by FLAT OUT out of INTHERIVER by SUNRIVER)
4  FLIGHT TO SHANGHAI Dec03 Oct20 Aug13 Jun08 May08 (de ho)VARGAS A 118 10.00 6% 15.50    
  (by SHANGHAI BOBBY out of WORLD EVENT by QUIET AMERICAN)
5  BETSY BLUE Dec10 Dec03 Oct30 Sep16 Aug14 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 0.60 32% 2.10    
  (by TONALIST out of HONEST TO BETSY by YONAGUSKA)
SCR  EASY TO BLESS Jan05 Dec11 Jun10 May19 Apr28 (ferraro )DAVIS A 118 20.00 ★    
  (by FLAT OUT out of ARBEKA by MR. GREELEY)
 
AQU-9   01/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 3 ALL PT- 4:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SLIP MAHONEY Dec17 Nov19       (cox h)DAVIS DYLAN 120 1.60 34% 2.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of GOT LUCKY by A.P. INDY)
2  GOOD RAPPORT Dec17 Nov18 Sep25 Jul30   (rodriguez ru)HARKIE K 120 20.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of YES I'LL GO by YES IT'S TRUE)
3  YORKSHIRE PRINCE Dec03 Oct22       (morley thomas)CANCEL ERIC 120 8.00 ★    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of HOPEFUL UNION by DIXIE UNION)
4  ALTERNATE REALITY Dec29         (englehar)DAVIS A 120 20.00 20% 3.90    
  (by ALTERNATION out of PANCAKE by CORINTHIAN)
5  WAVE ACTION Dec10         (serp)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 20.00    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of COOGEE BEACH by WAY WEST (FR))
6  WEDNESDAYNIGHT LAD         (breen ke)GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 20.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of LADY CLARA by HARD SPUN)
7  CRUPI Nov20 Oct14 Sep03 Aug06   (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 120 2.50 24% 3.20    
  (by CURLIN out of DON'TFORGETABOUTME by MALIBU MOON)
8  MERCANTE Dec17 Nov06       (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 120 6.00 ★    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of CARESSING by HONOUR AND GLORY)
9  FAST BOAT TO SKYE Dec16 Oct22       (donk davi)VARGAS A 120 12.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of CAUSE SHE'S FAST by CREATIVE CAUSE)
10  LIGHT THE WAY         (nevin )MARAGH RAMSAY 120 12.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of BY THE LIGHT by MALIBU MOON)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.