Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - May 30, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/4)-(2/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/4)-(2/1/4)-(2/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/4)-(7/5/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/1/4)-(7/5/1)-(3/7/1/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (7/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/5/1)-(7/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/5/1)-(7/5/1)-(7/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/5/1)-(3/7/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/5/1)-(3/7/1/5)-(2/6/7/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-3   WIN (3/7/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/7/1/5)-(3/7/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/1/5)-(3/7/1/5)-(3/7/1/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/7/1/5)-(2/6/7/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/7/1/5)-(2/6/7/5)-(1/8/6/9/2) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-4   WIN (2/6/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/7/5)-(2/6/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/7/5)-(2/6/7/5)-(2/6/7/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/6/7/5)-(1/8/6/9/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/6/7/5)-(1/8/6/9/2)-(3/1/2) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-5   WIN (1/8/6/9/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/8/6/9/2)-(1/8/6/9/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/8/6/9/2)-(1/8/6/9/2)-(1/8/6/9/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/8/6/9/2)-(3/1/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/8/6/9/2)-(3/1/2)-(5/11/10) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-6   WIN (3/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/2)-(3/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/2)-(3/1/2)-(3/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/2)-(5/11/10) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/1/2)-(5/11/10)-(9/7/2/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-7   WIN (5/11/10) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/11/10)-(5/11/10) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/11/10)-(5/11/10)-(5/11/10) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/11/10)-(9/7/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/11/10)-(9/7/2/1)-(3/11/13/8) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-8   WIN (9/7/2/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/7/2/1)-(9/7/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/7/2/1)-(9/7/2/1)-(9/7/2/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/7/2/1)-(3/11/13/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-9   WIN (3/11/13/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/11/13/8)-(3/11/13/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/11/13/8)-(3/11/13/8)-(3/11/13/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/30/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($50K) Purse ($86K) 4UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  READY FOR TROUBLE Apr30 Apr19 Mar08 Jan03 Jul06 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 2.00 14% 6.30    
2  ALWAYS ANGELS Apr30 Apr10 Feb24 Jan25 Jan03 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 1.80 33% 2.00    
3  CANDY LOVER May11 Mar01 Jan31 Jan02 Nov27 (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 120 2.50    
4  DEALING JUSTICE May02 Mar29 Feb24 Jan31 Jan03 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 6.00 10% 9.40    
5  SWEET ALYSSA Apr12 Feb16 Jan09 Oct29 Oct07 (pomier ch)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00    
6  ANGEL KISS May03 Apr19 Jan31 Jan05 Dec12 (hartman chri)RAMOS D 118 15.00    
 
CD-2   05/30/2025 3300ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RED DRAPES         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00 12% 7.10    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of RED CURLS by CURLIN)
2  GIRL NAMED KNICKI         (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 8.00    
  (by KNICKS GO out of CAUSEFORCOMMOTION by AMERICAIN)
3  A ROSE FOR SKYLER May01 Apr17       (spanabel)RODRIGUEZ A 119 15.00    
  (by BATTALION RUNNER out of LET RIGHT BE DONE by WAR FRONT)
SCR  SHE'S ON A ROLL         (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.00    
  (by CHARLATAN out of SUMMERSAULT by ROCK HARD TEN)
5  SAPPHIRE BEACH (IRE)         (arnold ge)TORRES A 119 5.00 17% 4.80    
  (by LITE THE FUSE out of FEATHERED CROWN by CHIEF'S CROWN)
SCR  LOVE A LITTLE MO         (lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of INJECT by FROSTED (GB))
7  ESSENTIAL COFFEE         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 3.50 35% 1.90    
  (by NYQUIST out of WINDING WAY by MALIBU MOON)
 
CD-3   05/30/2025 3630ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($69K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GAS ALLEY Jul18         (lauer michael)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 13% 6.60    
SCR  HONORARY AMERICAN (IRE) May24         (ward wesl)DETTORI LANFRANCO 118 3.00    
3  TROUBLE'S ROARING May03 Apr12 Mar02 Jun27 Jun05 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 124 6.00 49% 1.00    
SCR  BILLY WHITE SHOES (IRE)         (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00    
5  BIG ROG Apr26         (king barr)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  LITIGATION Mar29 Mar01       (lynch a)ROSARIO JOEL 118 6.00    
7  BLAST FURNACE May08 Apr30 Mar30 Aug19 May13 (brion ker)TORRES A 124 3.50 17% 4.90    
8  CORTINA (IRE) Apr10         (riefenberg eri)ASHTON GAVIN 124 6.00    
SCR  FRANKIE'S BOY         (miller jero)GUTIERREZ MARIO 124 20.00    
10  LEADING ROLE Jun23         (morey willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 12.00    
 
CD-4   05/30/2025 3630ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($57K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COCKTAIL HUMOR May02 Mar15 Feb15 Jan18 Dec15 (von donn)CEDILLO ABEL 118 5.00    
2  TROUBLER Jun14         (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 60% 0.70    
SCR  NOLA LOUISE Mar06 Dec26 Nov20     (newton troy)ACHARD ALEX 118 8.00    
4  AMELIA'S ECHO Sep21 Aug30 Aug11 Jul06   (moger jr)BEJARANO R 118 5.00    
5  PARTY PAULINE May15         (hartman chri)MONCADA IRVING 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  DARING HOPE Mar16 Feb21 Jan27 Nov03   (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 124 4.50 10% 9.30    
7  INNOCENT NYGHT May11 Mar13 Feb22 Jan26 Dec27 (michael)DE CRUZ 124 3.50 7% 12.90    
8  HARD TO GET         (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 12.00    
 
CD-5   05/30/2025 4950ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($62K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GENO'S MYTH May08 Apr10 Jan15 Dec14 Nov09 (esquivel jesus)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 4.00 24% 3.30    
2  DID IT DIALED         (lynch brian)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  TUSCANY'S EAGLE Nov25 Oct26       (romans dale)LANERIE J 124 10.00    
4  MELLIFLUOUS May11 Apr20 Mar28 Mar07 Jan12 (irion heath)ARRIETA REYNIER 124 12.00    
5  SPY May08 Mar01       (mcso)FRANCA ERIELTUN 124 12.00    
6  TIZ MY HERO May10 Apr24 Mar02 Oct11 Sep21 (vance tho)BEALMEAR C 124 3.50 16% 5.50    
7  PACE YOURSELF May10 Aug13 Jun16     (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 124 6.00    
8  GUARDIAN Nov01         (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 22% 3.50    
9  VENIK May10 Apr13 Mar15     (rice lind)TORRES A 118 8.00 10% 8.90    
 
CD-6   05/30/2025 4950ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOP GUN GIRL May01 Nov14 Oct24 Aug31 Oct22 (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 121 8.00 18% 4.50    
2  CAT'S CAVE Apr23 Nov29 Nov08 Oct11 Aug25 (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 123 5.00 10% 9.50    
3  PIGALLE Nov23 Sep14 Aug11 May26 Nov16 (drury j)MACHADO LUAN 121 2.50 42% 1.40    
4  IHEARTRAINACOMN May15 May05 Apr19 Mar27 Jan29 (labra rogeli)BURGOS ALBERTO 121 20.00    
SCR  HARBOR SPRINGS Apr26 Feb22 Nov24 Oct16 Sep15 (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.00    
SCR  LADY MOSCATO Apr26 Mar29 Feb23 Jan25 Dec22 (lukas wayne)JUAREZ NIK 121 8.00    
7  CALDWELL LUVS GOLD May01 Apr06 Feb23 Jan25 Dec13 (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 123 3.50    
SCR  EFFORTLESSLYELGANT May01 Mar09 Jun16 Apr26 Jan05 (casse nor)LEPAROUX R 121 15.00    
 
CD-7   05/30/2025 5280ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LORD I WONDER Apr26 Feb02 Jan02 Nov21 Oct04 (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 124 12.00    
SCR  STORM MIAMI (IRE) Apr30 Mar08 Nov09 Aug29 Aug05 (walsh brendan )ROSARIO JOEL 124 4.00    
SCR  EXPATRIATE Apr30 Jul18 May17 Feb14   (brown cha)DETTORI LANFRANCO 124 3.50    
SCR  INDY'S HALO Apr23 Mar15 Feb28 Jan31 Dec27 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 126 5.00    
5  PROMISEMEANEMPIRE May15 Jun29 May03 Mar29 Feb03 (moger jr)BEJARANO R 124 12.00 20% 3.90    
SCR  HOLD MY HALO Apr26 Mar22 Mar01 Dec27 Oct07 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 124 20.00    
SCR  LADY OF POWER Mar22 Feb14 Nov02 Feb24   (devaux cherie)LANERIE J 124 15.00    
SCR  ALWAYS FOREVER Apr12 Feb27 Aug19 Jul21   (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.50    
SCR  HEART SPIN May11 Apr06 Mar06 Jan23 Dec26 (navarrete)LEPAROUX R 124 12.00    
10  CANDY BAR Apr18 Feb06 Dec28 Nov28 Oct20 (calhoun wi)HERNANDEZ J 124 8.00 15% 5.60    
11  CLASSY'N CONNECTED Nov22 Sep26 Aug05 Jun16 Apr20 (drury thomas)TORRES A 124 8.00 16% 5.30    
12  NOSLEEPTILBROOKLYN May05 Mar23 Jan30 Dec29 Sep13 (lynch bri)TORRES A 118 12.00    
13  BETTE DAVIS May15 Apr10 Feb15 Jan23 Dec26 (diodoro r)TORRES A 124 10.00    
 
CD-8   05/30/2025 4950ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SECRET STATEMENT May03 Jul22 Jun09 May19 May04 (baker james)GEROUX FLORENT 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  NORMANDY QUEEN May03 Mar07 Jan23 Sep01 Aug02 (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.00 15% 5.50    
SCR  BOURBON BREEZE May02 Apr10 Feb13 Jan01 Dec19 (brisset r)TORRES A 125 12.00    
SCR  MARMALADE SKYE May24 Apr30 Mar20 Feb24 Feb12 (jacobson dav)MONCADA IRVING 116 3.50    
5  DULCE DESPERTAR (ARG)         (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 12.00    
6  GILA Mar10 Jan01 Nov29 Sep21 Aug16 (hess b)LEPAROUX R 121 15.00    
7  ZADORSKY Apr25 Jan20 Dec19 Nov03 Aug31 (beckman d )HERNANDEZ J 123 4.50 18% 4.50    
8  CATMINT May11 Apr07 Feb14 Dec14 Oct25 (hiles rick)BEJARANO R 121 15.00    
9  TRIPOLINA Apr26 Mar28 Feb24 Feb02 Dec22 (hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 121 2.50 44% 1.30    
 
CD-9   05/30/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($80K) Purse ($82K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHRIS'S REVENGE Apr29 Jan31 Dec21 Nov24 Oct24 (russell br)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
2  CONSECRATED Apr29 Mar18 Feb22 Jan20 Dec29 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
3  MEGA MAGIC May01 Mar14 Feb13     (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 118 6.00 34% 2.00    
SCR  GAMBLIN GEORGE May07 Jun16 May30 Apr24 Feb09 (kelley a)ROCCO S 126 20.00    
5  BAYTOWN BRUISER May16 May01 Apr10 May31 May09 (king l)GARCIA MARTIN 124 15.00    
SCR  GOVERNING PARTY Mar09 Feb15 Dec21 Oct12 Sep07 (maker michael )SAEZ GABRIEL 118 15.00    
SCR  DAIRAGO (FR) Apr24 Mar19 Mar05 Feb05 Nov23 (hess b)LANERIE J 124 3.00    
8  HOUSE UNITED Apr29 Mar01 Feb01 Jan01 Oct30 (atras rob)LEPAROUX R 124 15.00 9% 10.10    
9  GOOD BALI Apr19 Mar23 Mar02 Feb02 Dec01 (arnold georg)MONCADA IRVING 119 15.00    
SCR  NGANNOU Apr09 May11 Apr07 Oct08 Sep10 (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 124 2.50    
11  PUBLICITY May01 Apr10 Mar07 Feb05 Dec07 (londono gene)TORRES A 124 8.00 17% 5.00    
SCR  GAME POINT May01 Mar07 Feb15 Dec21 Nov04 (sims a)ACHARD ALEX 124 15.00    
13  FUNNYFLAME Mar16 Feb15 Jan18 Jun30 Jun07 (wilson sha)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 20.00 10% 8.60    
SCR  DECANTED May10 Sep05 Aug18 Jun30 May31 (brion ker)TORRES A 124 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.