Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Saturday - January 04, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (2/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/6)-(2/6) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (2/6)-(6/2) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (2/6)-(6/2)-(1/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
AQU-2   WIN (6/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/2)-(6/2/1) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (6/2)-(6/2/1)-(6/2/1) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (6/2)-(1/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/2)-(1/3/6)-(3/4/6/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-3   WIN (1/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/6)-(1/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/3/6)-(1/3/6)-(1/3/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/3/6)-(3/4/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/3/6)-(3/4/6/1)-(4/8/7/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-4   WIN (3/4/6/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/4/6/1)-(3/4/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/4/6/1)-(3/4/6/1)-(3/4/6/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/4/6/1)-(4/8/7/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/4/6/1)-(4/8/7/2)-(8/1/6/9) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
AQU-5   WIN (4/8/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/8/7/2)-(4/8/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/8/7/2)-(4/8/7/2)-(4/8/7/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/8/7/2)-(8/1/6/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/8/7/2)-(8/1/6/9)-(4/3/7/6) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
AQU-6   WIN (8/1/6/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/1/6/9)-(8/1/6/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/1/6/9)-(8/1/6/9)-(8/1/6/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/1/6/9)-(4/3/7/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/1/6/9)-(4/3/7/6)-(7/6/2/4) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
AQU-7   WIN (4/3/7/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/7/6)-(4/3/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/7/6)-(4/3/7/6)-(4/3/7/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/7/6)-(7/6/2/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/3/7/6)-(7/6/2/4)-(8/6/10/4) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
AQU-8   WIN (7/6/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/6/2/4)-(7/6/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/6/2/4)-(7/6/2/4)-(7/6/2/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/6/2/4)-(8/6/10/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
AQU-9   WIN (8/6/10/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/6/10/4)-(8/6/10/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/6/10/4)-(8/6/10/4)-(8/6/10/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   01/04/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($34K) 3 F PT-12:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  WAVE Nov23         (handal)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 10.00    
2  KITTY OF WAR Nov18 Nov06 Oct22 Oct03 Sep14 (d'alessandro r)LEZCANO JOSE 120 1.80 40% 1.50    
SCR  JUST WORDS Dec06 Nov23 Oct06 Sep13   (ryerson )MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 115 8.00    
4  LOOKIN TO ROCK Dec06 Nov24 Nov02 Sep02 Aug21 (chichakly amir)COA J 120 6.00    
5  NOTMYSTEPPINGSTONE Nov23 Nov09       (levine bruce)LUZZI J 120 1.40    
6  FREEDOM DREAMS Nov19 Oct22 Oct07     (barrow )ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 115 6.00 28% 2.60    
 
AQU-2   01/04/2025 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 4UP ALL PT-12:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ABADIN Dec06 Nov03 Sep28 Sep07 Aug07 (morley thomas)CARMOUCHE K 121 2.00 ★    
2  HATCH (GB) Dec27 Dec06 Nov24 Nov01 Sep29 (jones e)RUIZ ELISEO 123 4.50 15% 5.80    
3  HEARD ON THESTREET Nov24 Nov15 Oct31 Oct13 Sep20 (abreu fernand)FRANCO MANUEL 123 3.00    
4  TIMAEUS Jun22 May27 Apr26 May06   (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 121 5.00    
5  ISOMARSHALL Dec12 Nov22 Nov15 Oct24 Sep26 (keithan rachael)VIVES SOFIA 123 20.00    
6  MASTER OF ARMS Dec14 Sep27 Aug22 Aug07 Jun28 (barrer)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 2.50 58% 0.70    
 
AQU-3   01/04/2025 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($86K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KINETIC SKY Mar30 Mar02 Feb03 Dec31 Dec28 (dutrow richard)LEZCANO JOSE 121 3.00 34% 2.00    
2  OUSTER May09 Mar16 Aug09 Jul16 May29 (hennig mark)CARMOUCHE K 121 4.00    
3  MASMAK Nov10 Oct05 Sep01 Dec17 Nov12 (dutrow r)GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 2.00 30% 2.30    
4  WINIT Nov24 Oct26 Sep26 Aug23 May03 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 121 2.50    
5  SHERIFF BIANCO Dec28 Nov24 Oct27 Sep19 Aug18 (rice linda)RIVERA R 121 10.00    
6  COSTA TERRA Nov24 Nov07 Oct19 Sep15 Aug24 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
AQU-4   01/04/2025 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POSEIDON'S MIST Nov21 Oct17 Sep02 Jul21 Jun15 (englehart chri)LEZCANO JOSE 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  SPIRITUAL LADY Dec01 Nov09 Oct12 Sep02 Aug10 (ferraro ja)RIVERA R 123 6.00    
3  FIRST CLASS CAT Dec07 Nov21 Nov01 Sep19 Jul18 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 121 2.50 41% 1.40    
4  ALCALA Dec13 Nov20 Nov04 Oct19 May20 (kirby jo)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 116 6.00 12% 7.10    
5  ROMANTIC DANCER Nov21 Oct24 Sep25 Jul27   (dutrow richard)LUZZI J 123 3.00    
6  TOP OF THE TABLE Dec01 Nov03 Oct12 Aug25 Jun08 (hennig mark)CARMOUCHE K 123 4.50 12% 7.40    
7  VALIANT MAJESTY Dec18 Nov12 Oct15 Sep04 Aug20 (soto- martine)SILVERA RUBEN 123 5.00    
 
AQU-5   01/04/2025 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($74K) 3 ALL PT- 2:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LETS FIGHT Nov23         (maker j)VIVES SOFIA 120 5.00    
  (by FOG OF WAR out of HOT SPARK by SCAT DADDY)
2  POWERED BY COAL Nov03 Oct19 Aug30     (hennig mark)CIVACI SAHIN 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by INSTAGRAND out of SHARED DREAMS by SEEKING THE GOLD)
3  OUTSOURCE Nov23         (dutrow richar)FRANCO MANUEL 120 4.50    
  (by HONOR A. P. out of TRADE AGREEMENT by WILL TAKE CHARGE)
4  TAP IT EASY Nov30 Oct31       (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 120 2.00 38% 1.60    
  (by TAPITURE out of SMOKIN BREEZE by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
SCR  ARCH'S ASSAULT Nov30 Nov03 Sep23     (baker ch)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 15.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of ARCH'S SMILE by ARCH)
6  RUNAMOR Nov30         (rice linda)RIVERA R 120 6.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of CURLAMOROUS by CURLIN)
7  SWIFT MAGIC Oct31 Aug25 Aug16     (weaver george)CANCEL ERIC 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GOOD SAMARITAN out of HELEN SUNG by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
8  ROOFER Dec15 Nov23       (friedman mitch)LEZCANO JOSE 120 3.00 34% 1.90    
  (by HONEST MISCHIEF out of MEMORIES OF MOM by INCLUDE)
 
AQU-6   01/04/2025 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($74K) 3 ALL PT- 2:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAGNI Nov17 Oct18 Sep22     (friedman mitc)FRANCO MANUEL 120 4.00 26% 2.90    
  (by AUDIBLE out of CARAMEAWAY by LAWYER RON)
2  ISLAND CHARLIE         (nevin michelle)CARMOUCHE K 120 6.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of LITTLE BRAVE by BRIGHT LAUNCH)
3  DOMINICAN PIRATE Oct12 Sep02       (jimenez l)RUIZ ELISEO 120 20.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of BLANK SLATE by GIO PONTI)
4  A MILLION STORIES Nov23         (morley thomas)SILVERA RUBEN 120 10.00    
  (by THOUSAND WORDS out of KELLY'S PRIZE by PURE PRIZE)
5  FINES CREEK Nov23         (ryerson)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 115 30.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of INDY UNION by UNION RAGS)
6  SUNDAY GILT Nov30 Nov02 Sep21     (englehart jerem)CANCEL ERIC 120 3.00 9% 9.70    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of SATURDAY BLISS by ANY GIVEN SATURDAY)
SCR  ASSET MANAGEMENT Dec15 Nov17 Nov02     (baker ch)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 5.00    
  (by CENTRAL BANKER out of INDEMAND by SAARLAND)
8  TRINITY RIVER Nov30 Nov03 Oct19 Aug30   (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 2.50 41% 1.40    
  (by AIR FORCE BLUE out of WHITE ROCK LAKE by ROCK HARD TEN)
9  HAVE A CIGAR Nov03 Sep21       (maker j)VIVES SOFIA 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of RIVIERA CHIC by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
 
AQU-7   01/04/2025 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($76K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FABULOUS FOX Dec07 Nov25 Nov05 Oct22 Oct09 (dixon )MARAGH RAMSAY 123 15.00    
2  VALENTINE GIFT Nov30 Oct24 Sep20 Aug17 Jul18 (ribaudo robert )CANCEL ERIC 121 8.00    
3  EMBRACEABLE GAL Dec07 Nov05 Oct14 Sep17 Aug14 (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 123 3.50 24% 3.10    
4  EVALUATION Aug29 Aug02       (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 123 1.80 43% 1.30    
5  ARIANA RYE Nov21 Oct20 Aug01 Jul19 Apr06 (falcone robert )VIVES SOFIA 123 4.50    
6  ANNIEWORKSTOOMUCH Dec10 Nov19 Oct28 Sep21 Sep07 (rodriguez migu)ADORNO ABNER 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
7  NOLITA Dec07 Oct24 Sep27 Aug29 Sep24 (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 121 6.00 10% 9.40    
8  GRANADILLA Nov22 Oct25 Aug02 Jun16 May11 (dutrow r)GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 6.00    
 
AQU-8   01/04/2025 5280ft DIRT RC11 FAST Jerome Purse ($150K) 3 ALL PT- 3:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ENDURING SPIRIT Aug26 Aug11 Jun30 May16 Apr10 (jimenez l)VIVES SOFIA 118 30.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of LIFE STARTS by INTO MISCHIEF)
2  MANSETTI Nov24 Oct13 Sep26     (attard kevin)CIVACI SAHIN 120 10.00 12% 7.30    
  (by COLLECTED out of GIDGET GIRL by SKY MESA)
3  ICAN Dec06 Oct15 Sep12     (dutrow richar)FRANCO MANUEL 118 8.00    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of WE LOVE LUCY by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
4  OMAHA OMAHA Nov28 Oct10 Sep07 Aug17   (gorham michael )MENA E 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of ENGLAND SWINGS by KITTEN'S JOY)
5  GEORGIA MAGIC Nov29         (handal)MARAGH RAMSAY 118 10.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of NIGHTLIFE BABY by FLATTER)
6  CYCLONE STATE Dec06 Nov03 Sep28 Aug31 Aug03 (summers ch)RIVERA R 120 3.50 19% 4.10    
  (by MCKINZIE out of CHANEL'S LEGACY by DOMINUS)
7  STUDLYDORIGHT Dec07 Nov02 Sep28 Sep02 Jul13 (robb j)PEREZ XAVIER 123 2.50 40% 1.50    
  (by NYQUIST out of PEACH OF A GAL by CURLIN)
SCR  MCAFEE Nov24 Nov01       (dutrow r)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 2.00    
  (by CLOUD COMPUTING out of SATAVES by UNCLE MO)
 
AQU-9   01/04/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($30K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COLLECT FROM IKE Dec06 Nov02 Oct13 Sep27 Sep15 (pregman john )SILVERA RUBEN 123 8.00    
2  KING KHALI Nov13 Oct15 Sep30 Sep17 Aug06 (englehart chri)CIVACI SAHIN 123 10.00    
SCR  BADLANDS RULER Dec13 Nov08 Oct31 Oct10 Sep20 (chatterpaul nai)RUIZ ELISEO 123 20.00    
4  DEVIL'S CAY Dec13 Nov08 Oct10 Sep10 Aug12 (potts wa)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 118 10.00 6% 15.60    
SCR  ARREBATO Dec12 Nov23 Oct31 Oct03 Sep20 (miceli michael)COA J 123 12.00    
6  THAT'S MONEY Dec13 Aug30 Aug11 Jun09 May05 (brown bruc)RIVERA R 123 2.00 22% 3.50    
7  KING MOONRACER Dec13 Nov15 Oct25 Aug14 Jul13 (potts wayne)MARTINEZ R 123 15.00    
8  THANK YOU JON Dec13 Nov08 Oct10 Sep21 Aug18 (romero jesus)LEZCANO JOSE 123 2.50 28% 2.50    
9  WHENLOVETAKESOVER Dec13 Nov08 Oct10 Sep14 Jul21 (quick patrick)OLVER MADISON 123 15.00    
10  PERFECT FLIGHT Dec14 Nov14 Oct05 Sep19 Jul27 (shivman)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 118 8.00 19% 4.20    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.