Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Thistledown
Thursday - September 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TDN-1   WIN (2/9/5/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/9/5/1)-(2/9/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/9/5/1)-(2/9/5/1)-(2/9/5/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
    DD (2/9/5/1)-(5/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/9/5/1)-(5/2/4)-(8/5) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
TDN-2   WIN (5/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/4)-(5/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/4)-(5/2/4)-(5/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/2/4)-(8/5)-(8/3/5) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TDN-3   WIN (8/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (8/5)-(8/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    PK3 (8/5)-(8/3/5)-(4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TDN-4   WIN (8/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/3/5)-(8/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/3/5)-(8/3/5)-(8/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (8/3/5)-(4/3)-(1/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TDN-5   WIN (4/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/3)-(4/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    PK3 (4/3)-(1/2)-(1/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
TDN-6   WIN (1/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/2)-(1/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    PK3 (1/2)-(1/2)-(2/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TDN-7   WIN (1/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/2)-(1/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    DD (1/2)-(2/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
TDN-8   WIN (2/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/6/3)-(2/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/6/3)-(2/6/3)-(2/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TDN-1   09/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRIVATE CONNIE Aug29 Aug10 Jul03 May09 Apr04 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 114 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  CONSIDER ME May29 May09 Apr04 Mar15 Feb23 (lopez jacin)SEVERINO VICTOR 119 2.50 48% 1.10    
3  UNCAPTURED LYON Aug21 Jul11 Jun21 Jun06 May17 (rini anthony)GONZALEZ A 119 4.50    
4  DOMI Aug30 Aug10 Jul27 Jul11 Jun20 (mahan joseph )TOLEDO S 115 15.00    
5  KILLER BEE Jun23 May27 May11 Apr13 Apr05 (szczepansk)SMITH DIOGDINABI 119 8.00 10% 9.10    
6  KRAZY HAWK Aug10 Jul11 Nov13 Oct18 Oct05 (cady khalil)BOWEN ROCCO 119 20.00    
7  I'M NO SLEEPY JOE Sep04 Aug22 Aug07 Jul25 Jul03 (zielinski richard)PAUCAR E 117 3.50    
SCR  DRINKSONTHEBEACH Sep12 Aug10 Jul11 May24 May17 (londono j)DIAZ R 119 20.00    
9  MINDSHIP Q Sep07 Aug21 Aug09 Jul31 Jul17 (londono odin)HALDAR J 121 3.00 21% 3.80    
 
TDN-2   09/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($13.1K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DUDE'S MIST DATE Aug29 Aug07 Jul18 Jun26 Jan09 (diehl cand)SMITH DIOGDINABI 119 3.00    
2  ROMANCE IN HABANA Aug18 Jul27 Jul13 Jun03   (morales saul )BARBARAN ERIK 123 2.50 24% 3.10    
3  MI CANCION Feb20 Dec27       (erdel jo)FERNANDEZ R 119 6.00    
4  BAD AND BEAUTIFUL Aug29 Aug07 Jul12 Jan01 Jan08 (guciardo rob)KEISER CHELSEY 123 4.50 15% 5.90    
5  HEART OF THE BEAST Aug12 Jul29 Jul01 Jun04 May19 (mckanas j)DIAZ I 119 2.00 37% 1.70    
6  LA KADENZA Sep12 Aug23 Aug01     (lopez jacinto)CEDILLO MAURO 114 15.00    
 
TDN-3   09/21/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($20.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HEART OF RUBY Aug31 Aug22 Aug09 Aug01 Jul13 (casalinova tin)DIAZ I 119 5.00    
2  FAITHFUL SOLUTION Aug31 Feb16 Feb01 Jan18 Jan05 (skerrett jeff)GUERERE ANGEL 119 3.00    
3  MISS MARY JEAN Aug31 Jun10 May31 May11 Apr24 (castillo jabd)CEDILLO MAURO 110 12.00    
4  THE KID'S PRAYER Aug31 Aug03 Jul19 Jul05 Jun19 (rettele ri)HERNANDEZ ALVARO 115 15.00    
5  HAUGHTY PRAISE Aug30 Aug09 Jul25 Jul13 Aug19 (tumblin andrew)DIAZ R 123 6.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  ROARING GINGER Jul03 Jun01 May23 Mar09 Feb06 (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 115 2.00 62% 0.60    
SCR  FRIENDLY MERGER Aug22 Jul18 Jun14     (syed riaz)VELEZ J 119 20.00    
8  TV TIZ GORGEOUS Aug31 Aug09 Jul18 Jul05 May23 (tumblin andrew)BOWEN ROCCO 119 4.00 14% 6.20    
 
TDN-4   09/21/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33.9K) 2 F PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAYBETHEONE Sep04 Aug14 Jul24     (lopez jacinto)CEDILLO MAURO 113 3.50    
  (by ONE SIDED out of MAYBEMAYBENOT by PHILADREAM)
2  HISTORYINTHEMAKING         (sweeti)BATISTA ALBERTO 118 12.00    
  (by WILLIAM'S KITTEN out of MAKING HISTORY by PROUD CITIZEN)
3  AUTHORITARIAN GIRL Sep04 Aug14       (mcdonald james)GONZALEZ A 118 2.00 32% 2.10    
  (by MEDAL COUNT out of BOSSY GIRL by STREET BOSS)
4  VICTORIA COMMAND Sep04         (huffman candace )AVILES YAN 118 8.00    
  (by FORT LARNED out of VICTORIA MIA by MASTER COMMAND)
5  PITY PURCHASE         (langley joshu)GUERERE ANGEL 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MEDAL COUNT out of MILWAUKEE QUEEN by MILWAUKEE BREW)
SCR  ANGIE'S DEAR ONE Sep04         (lopez jacin)SEVERINO VICTOR 118 15.00    
  (by ONE SIDED out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SCR  QUICK RENDEZVOUS         (radosevich j)BERRIOS HECTOR 118 5.00    
  (by QUICK CHANGE out of LATE LOVER by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
8  TIERNEY Sep04         (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 118 3.00 43% 1.30    
  (by NATIONAL FLAG out of MINI MOM by PARENTS' REWARD)
 
TDN-5   09/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($16K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PURDY PUMKIN Aug29 Aug10 Feb14 Jan28 Jan09 (dacosta ja)HALLEDEEN ROBERT 119 4.50    
2  CONTESSINA Aug29 Aug08 Jul13 Jun20 Nov21 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 116 2.50    
3  ROWDY DAISY Aug29 Aug07 Jul20 Jul11 May25 (feliciano benny)FELICIANO R 119 3.00 16% 5.30    
4  IZZY'S MONSTER Aug02 Jul09 Jun22 May25 Oct15 (rivelli larry)BARBARAN ERIK 117 1.60 37% 1.70    
5  VILLAREGGIA Aug19 Aug02 Jul12 Jun24 Jun10 (ginter j)AVILES YAN 119 6.00    
 
TDN-6   09/21/2023 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($17K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BAD BOY BOOGIE Aug31 Aug10 Jul24 Feb21 Jan19 (huffman cand)BERRIOS HECTOR 119 2.00 64% 0.60    
2  ROUGE TU RICHES Aug28 Aug09 Jul24 Feb16 Jan26 (faulkner rodn)TOLEDO S 119 8.00 7% 13.50    
3  CAN'T CRASHMYPARTY Aug31 Aug10 Jul19 Jun20 Jun06 (genovese richard)AVILES YAN 123 2.50    
SCR  MATTAWAN         (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 119 3.00    
5  MARQUITOS M Aug28 Aug08 Jul20     (rettele ri)HERNANDEZ ALVARO 119 5.00    
6  MARK'S BUDDY JACIN Aug31 Aug10 Jul19 Jun20 Jun06 (radosevich jeff)DIAZ R 119 8.00    
 
TDN-7   09/21/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($16K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WARHORSE WEST Aug30 May29 May09 Apr25 Apr10 (rone mi)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 119 2.50 27% 2.70    
2  RIKIO Aug31 Aug15 Jun17 Feb23 Jan07 (cline ro)FERNANDEZ R 121 8.00 24% 3.10    
3  TOYI Aug31 Aug09 Jul12 Jun21 Jun06 (tumblin an)SMITH DIOGDINABI 121 6.00    
SCR  RIVZONAROLL Sep06 Jul26 Jul09 Jun25 Dec10 (rivelli larry)BARBARAN ERIK 115 2.00    
5  AWESOME ENOUGH Aug31 Aug12 Jul27 Jul10 Jun10 (galloway khadee)BOWEN ROCCO 119 4.50    
6  C J ALL THE WAY Aug12 Jul19 Jun24 Jan18 Dec30 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 114 4.00    
 
TDN-8   09/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($35.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MANDOLIN BREEZE Aug23 Aug01 Jul19 Jul05 Jun19 (rettele richar)HOUGHTON D 115 6.00    
2  OUR LAST SONG Aug31 Aug10       (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 119 2.00 44% 1.30    
3  DANES LAST SONG Aug31 Aug09 Mar20 Mar02 Dec13 (vazquez ivan)HALDAR J 115 3.50 14% 6.10    
4  PISTOL PACKIN BOS Aug30 Aug08 Jul19 Jul04 Jun13 (hurley l)PAUCAR E 119 5.00    
5  C MORE PRIDE Aug29 Aug09 Jul05 Jun01   (faulkner r)HERNANDEZ ALVARO 119 8.00    
6  RATATAT Aug23 Aug01 Jul03 Jun19 May31 (rone mi)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 115 2.50 21% 3.70    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.