Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Monday - August 07, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-3   WIN (4/5/6/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/6/1)-(4/5/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/6/1)-(4/5/6/1)-(4/5/6/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/5/6/1)-(4/1/3)-(4/3/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ARP-4   WIN (4/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/3)-(4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (4/1/3)-(4/3/2)-(1/5) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
ARP-5   WIN (4/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/2)-(4/3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/2)-(4/3/2)-(4/3/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (4/3/2)-(1/5)-(6/4/7/3) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
ARP-6   WIN (1/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/5)-(1/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    PK3 (1/5)-(6/4/7/3)-(5/3/1/4) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
ARP-7   WIN (6/4/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/7/3)-(6/4/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/4/7/3)-(6/4/7/3)-(6/4/7/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
ARP-8   WIN (5/3/1/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/3/1/4)-(5/3/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/3/1/4)-(5/3/1/4)-(5/3/1/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-3   08/07/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($10.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JAKE ON DAKAN         (long vaughn)WALES T 120 15.00 13% 6.60    
  (by FOREST PEACE out of GHOSTRUNNER by GHOSTZAPPER)
2  RUNNIN BUFFALO Jul23 Jul02 Jun19 Apr21   (rushton temple)MCNEIL BRYAN 120 8.00    
  (by ELMAZEED out of LANA'S LEGACY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
3  OLD FASHION TIME Jul09         (parsons ril)MORALES ROBERTO 124 10.00    
  (by MAJOR BIG TIME out of OLD FASHION LOVE by BELLINGHAM)
4  SILENCE'S NATION Jul23 Jul09 Jun19     (barraza s)RAMOS B 120 2.50 33% 2.10    
  (by TROJAN NATION out of CUPCAKE'S SURPRISE by EISHIN MASAMUNE (JPN))
5  CHROMESIDSATION         (garrett j)TORRES J 120 3.50 19% 4.40    
  (by CALIFORNIA CHROME out of SWING IT DISH by INDIAN CHARLIE)
6  PUT PUT PUT Jul31 Jul09       (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 120 6.00 15% 5.80    
  (by ZIP QUIK out of LABAR by BIANCONI)
7  GUTFIELD Jul30 Jul09 Jun19 Jul24   (triana mart)RAMEY CASH 115 4.50    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of SWEETPRINCESSCHARM by SWEETSOUTHERNSAINT)
 
ARP-4   08/07/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($8.3K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISS IZZY BEE Jul08 Jun19 Oct03 Aug21 Jul31 (parsons riley)WALES T 121 3.50 27% 2.70    
2  PRESLEY'S ARTWORK Jun18 May13 Apr16 Mar10 Feb25 (lemburg mark)HAAR NATHAN 124 10.00    
3  PRINCESS JAYLEEN Jul23 Jul08 Jun24 May01 Apr22 (torres-casa)MORALES ROBERTO 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  DAHLIA'S DANCER Jul16 Jun24 Feb15 Jan17 Dec26 (barraza raf)MORALES ALLYSSA 120 2.50 42% 1.40    
5  BREAKFAST BALL Jun18 Apr19 Mar26 Mar01 Feb14 (whitehouse wilton )LULL E 124 4.50    
 
ARP-5   08/07/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($7K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY PHYLLIS Jul22 Jul08 Feb07 Jan24 Nov30 (torres-casas ale)RAMEY CASH 119 20.00    
2  REMARKABLE CHARM Jul22 Jun24 May19 Apr22 Apr07 (roberts m)LULL E 124 12.00 7% 13.50    
3  SHE'S SMART ENOUGH Jul10 Jun17 Sep27 Sep04 Aug22 (martinez a)WALES T 121 2.50 14% 6.10    
4  LIL MISS DE BUY Jul17 Oct03 Sep27 Sep06 Aug28 (vicchrilli rus)MCNEIL BRYAN 121 3.50 51% 1.00    
5  EVIE Jun18 Jun09 Jun04 May19 May05 (ibanez albe)VORRATH VALENTE 124 20.00    
6  PROMPTLY DONE Jul16 Jun25 Apr29 Sep11 Aug22 (rushton temple)RAMOS B 124 4.50    
 
ARP-6   08/07/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($7K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MEET JOE May27 Apr14 Mar17 May07 Apr11 (kenney dan)HAAR NATHAN 124 2.50 37% 1.70    
2  RED WES Jul31 Oct02 Sep19 Sep04 Aug23 (chavez juan)TORRES J 121 4.50    
3  BRON AND THE BROW Jul22 May06 Mar25 Mar19 Feb18 (childs russell)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 10.00    
SCR  YHA YHA Jul03 Jun17 May06 Mar31 Mar11 (childs ru)MEDINA ANGEL 124 3.50    
5  ITS A DEAL Jun25 Oct01 Sep19 Aug29 Aug02 (rushton temple)RAMOS B 124 20.00 33% 2.10    
 
ARP-7   08/07/2023 4620ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($5K) Purse ($6.2K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DIVA'S DIVA Jul17 Jun24 May19 Apr30 Oct03 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 124 6.00    
2  FLO TIME Jul22 Jul08 Mar19 Mar04 Oct02 (martinez a)WALES T 121 2.50    
3  AMERICAN REALITY Jul17 Apr30 Mar26 Mar12 Oct27 (hibdon n)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 8.00 9% 10.40    
4  SHE'S MY RIDE Jul17 Jun24 May07 Apr12 Feb12 (ortega joe)LULL E 124 3.50 12% 7.10    
5  COLD AS YOU May19 May13 May05 Apr22 Mar26 (hibdon mark)MORALES ROBERTO 124 12.00    
6  LA ROSA DRIVE Jul22 Jul10 Oct03 Sep25 Sep12 (chavez juan)TORRES J 124 4.50 36% 1.80    
7  HAPPY HAPPY HAPPY Jul09 Jun04 May02 Jan31 Jan18 (christian billy)RAMEY CASH 119 15.00 10% 9.40    
 
ARP-8   08/07/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($3.2K) Purse ($5.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FRIENDLY FOE Jul16 Jul02 Jun18 Sep27 Sep13 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 121 3.50 11% 8.40    
2  ABRIERWIN Jul30 Jul16 Jun24 May13 Apr03 (lavanway dayso)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 10.00    
3  PICK A LANE FRANK Jul31 Jul15 Dec13 Nov09 Sep18 (christian billy)LULL E 124 2.50 17% 4.90    
4  BUMPER POOL Jul17 Jul03 Oct25 Oct02 Sep20 (ibanez albe)VORRATH VALENTE 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  CASH EXPRESS Jul16 Jul03 Apr16 Apr08 Mar26 (chavez juan)TORRES J 124 4.50 52% 0.90    
6  CAPTAIN COMEBACK Jul16 Jul02 May02 Dec14 Sep05 (williams f)RAMEY CASH 119 20.00    
7  ALL RISE UP Oct02 Sep20 Sep04 Aug15 Jul31 (chavez juan)JOURNET JARRED 124 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.