Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Friday - June 16, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (5/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/2)-(5/6/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/6/2)-(5/6/2)-(5/6/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/6/2)-(6/2/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/6/2)-(6/2/5/3)-(4/6/9/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-2   WIN (6/2/5/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/5/3)-(6/2/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/5/3)-(6/2/5/3)-(6/2/5/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/2/5/3)-(4/6/9/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/2/5/3)-(4/6/9/2)-(5/3/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-3   WIN (4/6/9/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/6/9/2)-(4/6/9/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/6/9/2)-(4/6/9/2)-(4/6/9/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/6/9/2)-(5/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/6/9/2)-(5/3/6)-(1/6/2/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-4   WIN (5/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/3/6)-(5/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/3/6)-(5/3/6)-(5/3/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/3/6)-(1/6/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/3/6)-(1/6/2/3)-(7/6/3/11/12) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-5   WIN (1/6/2/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/2/3)-(1/6/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/2/3)-(1/6/2/3)-(1/6/2/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/6/2/3)-(7/6/3/11/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/6/2/3)-(7/6/3/11/12)-(4/1/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-6   WIN (7/6/3/11/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/6/3/11/12)-(7/6/3/11/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/6/3/11/12)-(7/6/3/11/12)-(7/6/3/11/12) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/6/3/11/12)-(4/1/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (7/6/3/11/12)-(4/1/3)-(4/6/1/7/8) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
ELP-7   WIN (4/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/3)-(4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/3)-(4/6/1/7/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/1/3)-(4/6/1/7/8)-(5/7/4/1) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-8   WIN (4/6/1/7/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/6/1/7/8)-(4/6/1/7/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/6/1/7/8)-(4/6/1/7/8)-(4/6/1/7/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/6/1/7/8)-(5/7/4/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/6/1/7/8)-(5/7/4/1)-(3/9/8/6/4) 100 $1.00 $100 
ELP-9   WIN (5/7/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/7/4/1)-(5/7/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/7/4/1)-(5/7/4/1)-(5/7/4/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/7/4/1)-(3/9/8/6/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ELP-10   WIN (3/9/8/6/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/9/8/6/4)-(3/9/8/6/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/9/8/6/4)-(3/9/8/6/4)-(3/9/8/6/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   06/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HILL OF TARA Apr12 Mar16 Feb02 Jan15 Nov27 (enni)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 4.50    
2  SUPERCOOL May21 May30 Mar11 Jan23   (foley gre)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 125 3.50 10% 9.10    
3  COLOR FIELD May14 May04 Apr12 Feb03 Jan06 (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00    
4  BIG BOSS BEN May30 May14 Apr27 Apr01 Mar10 (garcia gena)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 5.00    
5  SUITABLE Apr29 Mar23 Jan29 Nov26 Nov19 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 36% 1.80    
6  ROAN FOR THE ROSE May03 Apr18 Mar23 Mar11 Feb04 (molloy thomas)GRAHAM J 123 6.00 32% 2.10    
 
ELP-2   06/16/2023 3300ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($54K) 2 ALL PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EXPRESS CRUISER Apr26         (gutierrez f)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00    
2  DES DOIGTS         (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 114 2.50 28% 2.60    
3  IMPERIAL THUNDER May11 Apr26       (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  THE RUSH IS ON May18 Apr27 Apr13     (vosler eugene )HUGHES CARLY 119 20.00    
5  FAMILY FACTOR Apr20         (colebrook )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  PATCH O'BRIEN May11         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 47% 1.10    
7  WHO'S SNOW TROUBLE May04         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 3.50    
SCR  HAWKS CREEK         (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 119 12.00    
SCR  INNOCENT MAN May11 Apr20       (navarrete )LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 12.00    
 
ELP-3   06/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RELIANT May14 Feb19 Jan29 Jan15 Dec14 (moquett r)LEPAROUX R 118 6.00    
2  OWEN'S PLEASURE May28 Apr29 Dec09 Nov11 Oct22 (martinez r)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 3.50 10% 9.20    
SCR  YOGURT May17 Dec15 Nov30 Nov15 Oct04 (short derrick )MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
4  VIOLENT POINT Apr22 Apr01 Feb12 Jan20 Nov30 (diodoro r)TORRES A 118 3.00 21% 3.80    
5  SHOW ME GRACE Apr15 Mar24 Feb18 Jan16 Dec09 (shorter a)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00    
6  DONYA KNOW IT May14 Mar04 Feb11 Jan14 Dec15 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 21% 3.90    
7  HOLDONTOYOURTIARA May14 Apr22 Mar23 Feb25 Feb16 (cook b)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
SCR  EVERYOTHERWON May11 Mar10 Jan20 Dec15 Nov24 (lauer mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 12.00    
9  LA V. May13 Mar05 Feb20 Jan06 Oct22 (wong jonath)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 5.00 18% 4.50    
 
ELP-4   06/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SNOWCREST Jun29 Jun23 May21     (holsapple hutc)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 10.00    
2  TAP THE LINE Jun10 May02 Apr26 Feb01 Dec28 (lauer mich)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 12.00    
3  WICCA WISDOM May12 Feb19 Oct08 Aug25 Jun02 (ramirez m)SAEZ LUIS 124 2.00 27% 2.70    
4  BEACH KITTEN May18 May02 Feb25 Feb01 Nov11 (miller jerome)MORALES EDGAR 124 2.50    
5  DRE ME LESS May20 May02 Mar30 Feb23 Dec14 (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.00 41% 1.50    
6  ELLIE DELI May20 May04 Mar15 Jan13 Dec29 (rouck l)BEJARANO R 118 3.50 9% 10.00    
 
ELP-5   06/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KUPP May18 Mar12 Feb18 Jan28 Nov13 (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 31% 2.20    
2  LUNDBERG May13 Apr08 Mar12 Apr07 Feb26 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 124 3.50 15% 5.70    
3  RATE CONFIRMATION May03 Mar24 Mar11 Jan20 Dec26 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 10% 9.20    
4  SUPREME SONG May20 Aug30       (mackey wayne)NAVAS YOEL 111 15.00    
5  RABBIT HOUND Sep13 Aug20       (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 118 5.00    
6  CLOUD WITHOUT REIN May21 Mar19 Feb11 Jan14 Dec19 (barnett bobb)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 4.00 23% 3.40    
7  MAFIA May27         (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
 
ELP-6   06/16/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 4:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MORETASTIC         (arnold r)GRAHAM J 119 10.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of AWESOMETASTIC by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
2  PURE CONNECTION         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
  (by CONNECT out of CARINHOSA by SKY MESA)
3  STREAMING NOW         (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 5.00 21% 3.80    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ONE TRUE KISS by WARRIOR'S REWARD)
4  LADY MOSCATO         (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of THEYCALLMELADYLUCK by DIXIE UNION)
5  SAVANNAMARIE         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 12.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of LENAMARIE by PAYNTER)
6  FOOLISH FRONT FIFI May26 May11 Apr19     (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 5.00 22% 3.50    
  (by COAL FRONT out of FOOLISH PATRIOT by AWESOME PATRIOT)
7  LYRICAL PARDON         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 3.00 30% 2.30    
  (by JUSTIFY out of TREBLE by MACHO UNO)
8  PINOTSLILGIRL         (ennis john)GILLIGAN JACK 119 12.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of PINOT by INTO MISCHIEF)
9  BEAUTIFUL DANCER         (casse mark)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 10.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of DREAM DANCING by TAPIT)
10  SHAKE IT BABY         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of JOY FILLED by PULPIT)
11  CRUISE MISSILE         (diodoro r)TORRES A 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of RUN AWAY'S SIS by CITY ZIP)
12  JUDY ELAINE         (brown h)COHEN DAVID 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KLIMT out of TIPPLING WAYS by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  Z INDY LINDY         (leitch d)RODRIGUEZ A 114 15.00    
  (by TAPIZAR out of LINDZ WINZ by VRONSKY)
 
ELP-7   06/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KLIMT'S MUSE May20 Apr23 Mar31 Feb22 Jan26 (humphries thom)MACHADO LUAN 124 3.50 35% 1.80    
2  POUT Apr27 Mar30 Feb17 Oct19 Aug12 (zito nicho)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 6.00    
3  LOTSANDLOTSOFGOLD May29 May02 Apr13 Feb09 Dec19 (heitzman eric)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  YO PUEDO Apr27 Mar12 Jul21 Jun10 Apr22 (medina rober)GEROUX FLORENT 124 3.00 36% 1.80    
5  WITS AND WAGERS May13 Apr07 Feb04 Dec23 Nov26 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 5.00    
6  I FEEL THE NEED Apr28 Apr15 Mar30 Mar04 Feb17 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 2.00    
 
ELP-8   06/16/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 5:11
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GIRLS WEEKEND May11         (barkley ja)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 6.00 6% 15.20    
  (by WORLD OF TROUBLE out of ISLAND LOVE SONG by DEHERE)
SCR  COPPER TOP         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 8.00    
  (by COPPER BULLET out of SIMPLE SURPRISE by COWBOY CAL)
3  BUCHU         (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of FLOWERING PEACH by GALILEO (ARG))
4  LATE NITE MISTRESS Apr19         (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 114 6.00 58% 0.70    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of LATE NIGHT POW WOW by FIBER SONDE)
SCR  TOO FAST FOR YOU May11         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of GIOVANNA BLUES by GIO PONTI)
6  VIBE CHECK May19         (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 15% 5.70    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of DAILY CAST by CURLIN)
7  BAYTOWN KITTY CAT May29 Apr12       (mcentee paul)MCENTEE GRACE 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of ELEMENTSOFHARMONY by EXCHANGE RATE)
8  END OF INNOCENCE         (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by UPSTART out of BLAME THE LAW by BLAME)
9  SINTRA         (casse mar)TORRES A 119 12.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of TROPHY GIRL by TALC)
10  INTO CHAMPAGNE         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of BEDFORD LAND by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  BOSSY BRUIN GAL         (o'neill dou)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of MISS SAMMY by TALE OF EKATI)
12  BACKSTRETCH ROSE         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
  (by ARMY MULE out of CHOLENA by INDIAN CHARLIE)
13  RIPAROUND         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of RARITIES by CITY ZIP)
 
ELP-9   06/16/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($175K) Purse ($148K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY GOLDSTART May14 Jan29 Dec09 Nov10 Oct19 (bahena ismael)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  SOUPER MUNNINGS May27 Mar17 Feb25 Jun04   (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 121 4.50    
3  SHARP HERO May27 May06 Apr09 Dec18 Nov25 (ross s)BAIRD T 121 3.00    
4  SPICY MARG May19 Oct29 Sep24 Aug04 Apr30 (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 116 4.50 14% 6.30    
5  PRETTY BIRDIE Apr29 Mar31 Feb25 Dec17 Jul09 (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.50 40% 1.50    
6  NEW BOSS May05 Mar25 Feb21 Jan14 Dec03 (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 4.00    
7  THUNDERING CREED May19 Dec03 Oct16 Sep01 Aug06 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 121 8.00 17% 4.90    
SCR  J L'S ROCKETTE Mar27 Feb28 Jan10 Nov07 Sep25 (reed r)BEJARANO R 121 4.00    
 
ELP-10   06/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:09
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RISKY CHOICE May25 Apr01 Mar10 Feb24 Feb10 (spicer james )BECKMAN ALICE 111 15.00    
2  PERFECT THUNDER May11 Apr23 Mar19     (brennan terry)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
3  STORM STRATEGY May29 May05 Apr22 Apr02 Mar10 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 125 4.50 31% 2.20    
4  TIME TO MEDDLE May18 Mar26 Jun04 May03 Apr08 (forster t)GRAHAM J 125 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  SCHMEAR May29 May14 Oct23     (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 15.00    
6  CRUSADER CONRAD May21         (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 118 3.00 5% 19.00    
7  CRONUS May25 Apr29 Mar24 Jan13 May07 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 125 4.00    
8  BOOSTER SHOT May30 Apr29 Mar09 Jan20 Nov23 (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 3.50 15% 5.50    
9  NORTHWIND May29 Apr14 Feb03     (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 25% 3.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.