Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Sunday - April 23, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
KEE-1   WIN (5/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/1)-(5/4/1/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/4/1)-(5/4/1/6)-(5/4/1/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/4/1)-(5/12/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/4/1)-(5/12/8)-(8/6/3) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
KEE-2   WIN (5/12/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/12/8)-(5/12/8/11) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/12/8)-(5/12/8/11)-(5/12/8/11) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/12/8)-(8/6/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/12/8)-(8/6/3)-(5/6/3) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
KEE-3   WIN (8/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/6/3)-(8/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/6/3)-(8/6/3)-(8/6/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/6/3)-(5/6/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (8/6/3)-(5/6/3)-(10/8/2/6/4) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
KEE-4   WIN (5/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/3)-(5/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/6/3)-(5/6/3)-(5/6/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/6/3)-(10/8/2/6/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/6/3)-(10/8/2/6/4)-(5/8/2/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
KEE-5   WIN (10/8/2/6/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/8/2/6/4)-(10/8/2/6/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
KEE-6   WIN (5/8/2/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/8/2/7)-(5/8/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/8/2/7)-(5/8/2/7)-(5/8/2/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/8/2/7)-(1/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/8/2/7)-(1/3/7)-(5/2/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
KEE-7   WIN (1/3/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/7)-(1/3/7/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/3/7)-(1/3/7/5)-(1/3/7/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (1/3/7)-(5/2/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/3/7)-(5/2/3)-(4/9/7) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
KEE-8   WIN (5/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/3)-(5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/3)-(4/9/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
KEE-9   WIN (4/9/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/9/7)-(4/9/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/9/7)-(4/9/7)-(4/9/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   04/23/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FIELDSTONE Mar22 Feb26 Jan08 Dec22 Nov05 (claire alexis)LANERIE J 124 3.50 16% 5.20    
2  ROGUE ELEMENT Apr01 Jan21 Jan06 Dec08 Nov12 (hiles jeff )GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 12.00    
3  JOB SECURITY Feb11 Nov24       (pessin nei)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 20.00    
4  HE'S GOT THIS Feb26 Feb03 Dec22 Dec01 Sep26 (mckeever a)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.00 23% 3.30    
5  KING'S OVATION Feb02 Nov23 Apr20 Mar05   (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 1.00 39% 1.60    
6  MR. PETERKIN Apr01 Feb04 Jul07 Jun23 Mar13 (norris mike)BEJARANO R 124 20.00 ★    
7  DROP ANCHOR Apr05 Mar24 Feb04 Jan19 Jan06 (adams l)MACHADO LUAN 124 10.00    
 
KEE-2   04/23/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALL I WANT IS YOU         (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 8.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of CANDY SIOUX by INDIAN CHARLIE)
2  AGENT         (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00    
  (by ASTERN out of INTROVERT by SMARTY JONES)
3  POINT WELL TAKEN Mar31 Mar04 Dec09 Oct18 Sep14 (corrigan )HERNANDEZ J 125 50.00    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of FAIR POINT by SMART STRIKE)
4  SANDRA D Mar25 Mar01       (margolis s)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of USUALLY SUPER by UNUSUAL HEAT)
5  COWICHAN (IRE) Sep01 Aug04 Jun30 May20   (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 118 1.60 32% 2.10    
  (by KODIAC (GB) out of SHEHILA by ZAMINDAR)
6  GLAMOUR ANNA         (navarrete ann)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
  (by FAST ANNA out of GLAMOUR N GLORY by NEWSPROBE)
7  LITTLE HOT MESS         (blair jordan)ROCCO S 118 20.00    
  (by ARMY MULE out of FOREVER SUNSHINE by WHITNEY TOWER)
8  HARTFUL HOPE Mar31 Mar02       (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 20.00 10% 9.20    
  (by CENTRAL BANKER out of SHE'S STYLISH by POSSE)
9  L J'S EMMA Mar01 Jan21       (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 20.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of REALLY AND TRULY by PULPIT)
10  RAPUNZELS SONG         (delacruz meji)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of MEETMEONTIME by GENERAL MEETING)
11  SNOW PRINCESS Mar16         (mott i)ROSARIO JOEL 118 4.50 ★    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of CANDY DRAWER by CANDY RIDE)
12  SECRET MONEY Apr02         (walsh brendan)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50 23% 3.40    
  (by GOOD SAMARITAN out of AWESOME HUMOR by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  CALM COOL Feb26 Feb09       (stall m)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of PORT CHARLOTTE by BLAME)
SCR  LEMON BOMB Oct30 Oct08       (pugh d)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00 11% 8.10    
  (by ARMY MULE out of BITTER LEMON by LEMON DROP KID)
SCR  ANNA'S ARABESQUE Mar08         (bauer phil)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of CLASSY MUSIC by MACLEAN'S MUSIC)
SCR  RUNAWAY WILLIE         (ward dean)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00    
  (by RUN AWAY AND HIDE out of WILHELMINA by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
 
KEE-3   04/23/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOOIT Feb08 Jan13 Nov11 Oct22 Sep24 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00    
2  COMMANDANDCONTROL Jan14 Dec28 Dec01 Oct31 Oct11 (corrigan j)HERNANDEZ J 124 6.00    
3  LUCY'S CAKES FLY Feb15 Jan18 Oct01 Jul24 Apr15 (reed eric)LEPAROUX R 124 10.00 9% 10.40    
SCR  TREASURE OF WAR Feb16 Jan26 Dec17 Oct31 Sep06 (devaux che)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 2.50 18% 4.70    
5  KLIMT'S MUSE Mar31 Feb22 Jan26 Dec15 Nov11 (humphries thom)MACHADO LUAN 124 4.50    
6  KEEN LADY Jan29 Dec15 Oct20 Sep19 Jul04 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.50 20% 4.00    
7  CENTER STAGE Mar25 Feb16 Feb02 Dec21 Oct27 (fletcher kevi)CANNON DECLAN 124 15.00    
8  HONORIFIQUE Mar07 Jul02 May29 Apr15 Mar03 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.00 25% 3.10    
 
KEE-4   04/23/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($62.5K) Purse ($78K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BACKGROUND Mar18 Feb11 Jan21 Aug14 Jun25 (puhich mi)LEPAROUX R 118 4.50    
2  ORDER AND LAW Mar03 Dec31 Nov25 Oct16 Sep03 (hess b)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.80    
3  OLLIEMYBOY Mar02 Jun04 May01     (stall m)LANERIE J 118 8.00 9% 9.80    
4  UNINVITED GUEST Feb11 Jan15 Nov24 Oct19 Sep30 (margolis r)GRAHAM J 118 6.00    
5  BEAR OAK Mar30 Mar10 Feb09 Jan18 Dec11 (bahena ismael)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.50 45% 1.20    
6  MOBSTER GUN May12 Apr15 Feb16     (sims a)BEJARANO R 118 4.00 10% 9.00    
 
KEE-5   04/23/2023 5280ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($110K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FAST AND FLIRTY Mar09 Jan28 Nov06 Oct07 Apr10 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50    
2  FOR THE FLAG Mar12         (toner j)RUIZ JORGE 123 4.00 14% 6.40    
3  PRESENT MOMENT (IRE)         (beckman w)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 20.00    
4  FRENCH CUFFS Mar25 Mar02 Aug29 Aug04 Jul06 (hernandez r)PETERSON FERRIN 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
5  DO YOU LOVE ME Dec14 Oct06 Sep08 Jan26   (bourke j)CORRALES GERARDO 118 50.00    
6  LILAC GIRL Feb25         (thomas jonathan)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 5% 18.40    
SCR  HELENS WELL (IRE) Nov27 Oct29 Sep04 Jul23 Jun12 (reed eric)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00    
8  BREAKER OF CHAINS Mar05 Jan28       (weaver george)VELAZQUEZ R 118 6.00 27% 2.70    
9  QUIERO MAS Feb25 Jan28 Jan01 Dec08 Jan23 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 30.00    
10  TEQUILERA Dec04 Oct30 Sep18 Aug10 Jul12 (matz r)ROSARIO JOEL 118 3.00 30% 2.30    
11  PIONEER'S EDGE Nov12 Aug14 Jul24 Jul02 Jun11 (carroll josie)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 10.00    
12  LAKOTA SPIRIT Jun25 May28 Apr15 Feb13 Jan09 (brown c)ORTIZ JR 118 8.00    
SCR  SAKE (FR) Apr13 Dec21 Oct13 Jun25 Jun04 (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 8.00    
14  MINT EDITION Mar29 Mar08 Feb16 Dec31 Dec04 (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
 
KEE-6   04/23/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($47K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  JUBILANT JOANIE Apr01 Feb23       (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 6.00    
2  SAVE YOUR TEARS Mar18 Sep18 Aug14 Jul31   (bahena ismael)BEJARANO R 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  LITTLE DIXIE Mar03 Jan21       (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00    
4  PADDY GAL Sep05 Jul29       (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 8.00    
5  TESHIMA Mar16 Jan18 Dec03 Oct30   (wong jonathan)NAVAS YOEL 108 2.50 19% 4.30    
6  SPEIGHTSY HOT Mar23 Apr28 Apr02     (hughes g)SANJUR SANTO 125 20.00    
7  MIDNIGHT FAVORITE Mar15 Feb09       (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
8  STRONG PROFILE         (mckeever andrew)GRAHAM J 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  ALLINTHECALL Mar30         (murphy conor)ELLIOTT JANE 118 3.50 46% 1.20    
10  MELINOE Feb16 Jan15       (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00    
 
KEE-7   04/23/2023 5940ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($120K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BUY ME CANDY Mar11 Feb04 Jan07 Aug15 Jul18 (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 4.00 49% 1.00    
2  ENCOURAGE Oct21 Oct01 Sep05 Aug12   (mcpeek kenneth )COHEN DAVID 118 5.00    
3  ALEX JOON Mar26 Nov18 Oct21 Sep08 Aug09 (schultz l)LEPAROUX R 118 3.00 16% 5.40    
4  HIGHESTDISTINCTION Mar17 Aug20 Jul30 Jun26 Jun02 (medina robert)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00    
5  READY FOR THE LADY Jan28 Nov13 Oct14 Sep18 Jul23 (attfield roge)VELAZQUEZ R 118 6.00 ★    
6  LIMITED LIABILITY Oct22 Sep06 Jul09 Jun04 Apr16 (mcgaughey cla)ORTIZ JR 118 2.00    
7  BAKWENA Mar11 Jan20 Oct26 Oct05 Sep05 (miller dar)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 15.00 5% 18.20    
 
KEE-8   04/23/2023 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($110K) 3 ALL PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPURS UP Sep06 Jul18 May29 Apr28   (mccutchen )LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 50.00    
2  KING'S GLORY (GB) Mar25 Aug27       (asmussen steve)ROSARIO JOEL 122 1.60 33% 2.00    
3  TUMBARUMBA Mar11 Feb11 Dec10 Nov06 Oct02 (lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 11% 7.90    
4  B MINOR Mar30 Mar09 Nov26 Oct09 Sep16 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
5  SCOTLAND Mar04         (mott william )ORTIZ JR 122 0.60 35% 1.80    
 
KEE-9   04/23/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3 F PT- 5:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RED JAG Mar09 Feb08 Nov30     (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 15.00    
  (by MIZZEN MAST out of ESSTADISTA by ESSAYONS)
2  AFTER EIGHT Aug25         (delacour arnau)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 10.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of CLASSYDAME by BLAME)
3  ASTRILA Mar18 Feb18 Aug14     (mott i)ROSARIO JOEL 120 12.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of HARBINGEROFTHINGS by ROCKPORT HARBOR)
4  FREYDIS THE RED (FR) Nov20 Oct01 Sep04 Jul31   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 3.50 26% 2.80    
  (by UNKNOWN out of SONGERIE by ENTICED)
5  GOLDEN RUNNER Apr01 Feb23 Jan25     (hamilton sara)CANNON DECLAN 120 15.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of GOLD SERENADE by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
6  SUMMERTIME ROSE Apr01 Mar09 Dec31     (sharp joe)ORTIZ JR 120 6.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of MAGICALCARPETRIDE by SMART STRIKE)
7  ROYAL BLOOD Apr07 Mar18       (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 120 8.00 5% 17.90    
  (by CARPE DIEM out of LE SANG ROYALE by HENRYTHENAVIGATOR)
8  TIME TO RACE Apr13 Mar09 Jan11 Dec14 Sep23 (nihei michell)GILLIGAN JACK 120 30.00    
  (by RACE DAY out of TIME FOR HARLAN by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
9  BOLTORO Mar18 Feb09 Dec14 Oct14 Sep08 (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 4.00 9% 9.50    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of ELANDESS by SCAT DADDY)
10  MISCHIEVOUS GAL Mar18 Feb16 Nov24 Oct22   (mckeever andr)MORALES EDGAR 120 20.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of ENOUGH by ARCH)
11  MENDED WE STAND Mar05 Jan22 Oct30 Sep08 Jul29 (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 120 15.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of LADY by MALIBU MOON)
12  ROSY TOMORROWS Mar11         (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 5.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of RESTLESS SPIRIT by UNKNOWN)
SCR  TACTICAL JOKE Jan27         (ward a)ORTIZ JR 120 3.00 30% 2.30    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of COMPETITION by DIXIE UNION)
SCR  BAG LADY         (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 15.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of BAGHDARIA by ROYAL ACADEMY)
SCR  PENUMBRAS MAKER Apr07 Feb16 Jan29 Dec26 Dec11 (gutierrez)LEPAROUX R 120 2.50 7% 14.20    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of BALAYAGE by WAR FRONT)
SCR  THE ARCHANGEL Apr01         (attfield roger)SAEZ LUIS 120 12.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of ARCH'S GAL EDITH by ARCH)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.