Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Saturday - December 17, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   12/17/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT-11:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIZA BROWN Dec11 Nov09 Oct26 Sep27 Sep13 (persaud )DAVIS A 121 20.00    
2  NORTH POLE Dec09 Nov25 Oct06 Sep30 Aug19 (begg bent)DAVIS DYLAN 124 2.00 58% 0.70    
3  TIGER TOWN BOY Nov11 Oct09       (gargan danny)FRANCO MANUEL 121 1.80 13% 6.90    
4  PAPI ON ICE Dec09 Nov25 Nov10 Aug10 Jul15 (persa)HERNANDEZ OMAR 114 12.00 ★    
5  LEFTY'S WAR Oct06 Aug04 Jul10 May15 Mar19 (lee jo)MARAGH RAMSAY 124 15.00    
6  GRAND AGAIN Nov25 Nov10 Sep30     (shivmangal l)HARKIE K 121 30.00    
7  UNION LIGHTS Nov06 Sep29 Mar20 Feb03 Jan02 (nevin mi)GOMEZ ANTONIO 116 6.00    
8  GROWTH MINDSET Sep17 Aug13       (gargan danny)OLVER MADISON 111 8.00 ★    
9  SEAN THE HAMMER Dec09 Nov10 Apr29     (rodr)HUAYAS (JASON) 114 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
AQU-2   12/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($90K) 3UP ALL PT-12:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEZOS Nov26 Oct22 Sep16 Jun18 Jun05 (gober)HERNANDEZ OMAR 115 8.00    
2  HANDSOME CAT Nov08 Sep18 Aug21 Jul31 Jul08 (jacobson dav)CASTELLANO J 122 4.00 9% 10.30    
3  DIGITAL FUTURE Nov04 Oct06 Aug25     (handal ra)VARGAS A 122 3.00 12% 7.20    
4  AFTER FIVE Nov20 Oct16 Oct06 Aug25 Jul09 (falcone rober)FRANCO MANUEL 122 5.00 14% 6.30    
5  CATCHYASOON Nov26 Sep04 Aug15 Jul19 Jul05 (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 120 12.00 ★    
6  SCILLY CAY Nov10 Oct27 Sep16 Aug06 Jun10 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 122 2.50 43% 1.30    
7  LEDDY Nov05 Sep24 Aug03     (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 118 4.50    
 
AQU-3   12/17/2022 5280ft DIRT RC2 MUDDY nongraded Stake Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT-12:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPUNGIE Oct30 Sep25 Aug14     (mott william )FRANCO MANUEL 121 4.00 29% 2.40    
2  FIGHT ON LUCY Nov13 Sep22 Jul09 Jun10 May07 (kel)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 121 30.00    
3  KNOW IT ALL AUDREY Nov04 Oct27 Oct09 Sep16 Aug13 (barrera osca)CASTELLANO J 118 4.50 ★    
4  MASHNEE GIRL Oct30 Sep05 Aug12 Jul10 May30 (hennig mark)CARMOUCHE K 121 10.00 5% 17.70    
5  VENTI VALENTINE Oct30 Aug26 Jun25 May06 Apr09 (abreu r)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.50 ★    
6  LET HER INSPIRE U Oct30 Sep24 Aug26 Jul22 Jun16 (pletcher todd )LEZCANO JOSE 123 0.80 41% 1.40    
 
AQU-4   12/17/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 MUDDY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SURCHARGE Oct29 Oct03 Aug23 Jun11 Apr15 (jones michael )LEZCANO JOSE 120 8.00    
2  TRUE EMPRESS Dec02 Oct20 Sep18 Jul22 May30 (martin f)CANCEL ERIC 120 3.50 ★    
3  MIA BEA STAR Dec04 Nov11 Nov04 Oct27 Oct09 (persau)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 4.00 13% 6.90    
4  CHARLEY RUDE Nov09 Jun24 Apr15 Mar17   (mccarthy mich)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.00    
5  DEVILLY Dec02 Nov04 Sep22 Aug19 Jul30 (ferraro )DAVIS A 120 12.00 8% 11.30    
SCR  LAUGHTER Dec02 Nov17 Oct09 Aug31 Aug03 (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 120 10.00    
7  ALPINE QUEEN Oct14 Sep29 Aug04 Jun03 May01 (tosc)HUAYAS (JASON) 115 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  SAINT EROS GIRL Nov25 Nov03 Sep03 Aug06 Jun26 (morley thoma)CASTELLANO J 120 4.50 50% 1.00    
 
AQU-5   12/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($90K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRISONER Sep17 Jul23 Jun10 Mar18 Feb05 (baker charlton)DAVIS DYLAN 122 12.00    
2  MAURITIUS Oct30 Mar27 Mar05     (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 120 8.00    
3  KING ANGELO Nov20 Oct16 Jul24 Jun04   (abreu r)FRANCO MANUEL 122 6.00 13% 6.60    
4  VIDAL Oct19 Aug23 Jun25 May30 Apr08 (jones michael )ADORNO ABNER 120 4.50 16% 5.30    
SCR  NEURO Nov18 Oct22 Aug13 Jul17   (riba)HUAYAS (JASON) 115 8.00 ★    
6  SHERIFF BIANCO Nov17 Oct01 Sep04 Jul17 Jul09 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 1.40 34% 2.00    
7  TWELTH MAN May07 Feb12 Jan08     (nevin michel)CASTELLANO J 122 5.00    
8  JESTER'S SONG Nov05 Sep15 Jun02 Apr16 Feb26 (bond har)GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 15.00 7% 14.40    
 
AQU-6   12/17/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($85K) 2 ALL PT- 2:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOOD RAPPORT Nov18 Sep25 Jul30     (rodriguez)VARGAS A 119 15.00    
2  SUMMER CAUSE Nov06         (clement chris)FRANCO MANUEL 119 3.00 25% 3.10    
3  TAPIT TRICE Nov06         (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 119 2.00 30% 2.30    
SCR  ASSERTIVE ATTITUDE Nov11         (serpe ph)GOMEZ ANTONIO 114 12.00    
5  WINNING CONNECTION Dec01 Oct28 Oct02     (reynolds patric)CANCEL ERIC 119 12.00 21% 3.70    
6  SLIP MAHONEY Nov19         (cox h)DAVIS DYLAN 119 3.50 ★    
7  ABSTRACT         (pletch)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 10.00 ★    
SCR  KELTIC KNIGHT Nov18         (morley thoma)CASTELLANO J 119 20.00    
9  MERCANTE Nov06         (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 119 15.00    
10  MY IMAGINATION Nov13 Oct19 Sep21     (more)HUAYAS (JASON) 112 20.00    
 
AQU-7   12/17/2022 4620ft DIRT RC2 MUDDY nongraded Stake Purse ($500K) 2 F PT- 2:37
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LES BON TEMPS Oct30 Sep23 Aug26 Jul04 May26 (maker michael )LEZCANO JOSE 122 1.60 54% 0.90    
2  CLOVER STREET Nov04 Oct01       (hennig mark)FRANCO MANUEL 118 12.00    
3  FORCES SWEETHEART Nov05         (joseph saffi)ZAYAS J 120 4.50 5% 19.00    
4  MIDTOWN LIGHTS Dec03 Oct28 Sep17     (cox h)CASTELLANO J 120 3.50 18% 4.50    
SCR  BUSTIN HOT Nov27 Oct30       (rice linda)GOMEZ O 118 15.00    
6  DREAM ON CARA Nov20 Oct30 Aug18 Aug03 Jul04 (friedman mitche)DAVIS DYLAN 118 30.00    
7  SMALL PEBBLES Nov20 Oct24 Aug22     (martin carlos )ALVARADO R 122 20.00 ★    
8  CENTRAL SPEED Nov19 Oct30       (terranova john )CANCEL ERIC 118 12.00    
9  LITTLE LINZEE Oct30 Oct08 Jul28     (schettino domin)DAVIS KATIE 120 20.00    
10  FEMA FUNDS Dec03 Nov04       (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 118 10.00 ★    
11  SWEET LIBERTY Dec03 Oct06 Sep22 Sep02 Jun25 (quick pa)DAVIS A 118 15.00    
 
AQU-8   12/17/2022 5280ft DIRT RC2 MUDDY nongraded Stake Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:06
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MARKET ALERT Dec09 Nov06 Oct07 Aug12 Jul10 (atras rob)VARGAS A 126 8.00    
SCR  THREE JOKERS Oct29 Aug12 Jun11 May15 Mar04 (terranov)GOMEZ ANTONIO 121 12.00    
3  PERFECT MUNNINGS Oct30 Aug26 Jun10     (pletcher tod)CASTELLANO J 121 5.00 ★    
4  SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN Dec04 Oct08 Sep10 Aug26 Aug06 (maker michael )LEZCANO JOSE 126 5.00 21% 3.80    
5  BARESE Nov27 Oct30 Aug26 Jul18 Jun25 (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 123 2.50    
6  SEA FOAM Oct30 Sep24 Aug12     (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 121 6.00 13% 6.70    
7  WUDDA U THINK NOW Oct30 Sep10 Aug12 Jun21 Feb19 (rodriguez rudy )DAVIS DYLAN 123 8.00 33% 2.00    
8  DR. BLUTE Oct30 Sep18 Aug20 Jul31 May12 (joseph saffi)ZAYAS J 126 3.50 9% 10.10    
 
AQU-9   12/17/2022 4620ft DIRT RC2 MUDDY nongraded Stake Purse ($500K) 2 ALL PT- 3:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JACKSON HEIGHTS Oct30 Sep29 Aug26 Aug04 Jul08 (noda orlando)CASTELLANO J 122 3.50 14% 6.40    
2  BUSTINO SANTINO Nov12         (levine bruce)DAVIS DYLAN 118 5.00 ★    
3  PLAYINGWITHMATCHES Nov17 Oct27       (hennig)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 20.00    
4  GENERAL BANKER Nov26 Oct16 Sep29 Sep16 Aug26 (ferraro w)CANCEL ERIC 118 10.00    
5  ZAPRUDER Dec08 Oct16       (mott william)ZAYAS J 118 10.00    
6  TATER AND TOT Oct21 Sep29 Sep04     (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 118 20.00    
7  INCANTATION         (bond harold )HARKIE K 118 30.00    
8  LIFETIME OF CHANCE Nov12 Oct27       (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 118 6.00 22% 3.60    
9  RAMBLIN' WRECK Nov26 Oct02 Sep16 Aug11   (gargan danny)FRANCO MANUEL 120 12.00 ★    
10  LAUREL VALLEY         (pletcher )VARGAS A 118 8.00    
11  VACATION DANCE Nov05 Oct09 Sep04     (kimmel c)CARMOUCHE K 122 3.00 43% 1.30    
 
AQU-10   12/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($35K) 2 ALL PT- 4:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOT ROD LINCOLN Sep22 Sep04       (rodriguez rudy )DAVIS DYLAN 119 3.00 ★    
1A  M. C. DOUBLE R Nov17 Oct22 Sep22 Aug14 Jul08 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 114 3.00 14% 6.20    
2  LIOTTA Nov17 Sep16 Aug19 Jul29   (hill)HUAYAS (JASON) 112 15.00    
3  CHASIN' YOU Oct22 Sep23 Sep04     (lynch nat)VARGAS A 119 6.00    
4  JOYFUL GHOST Oct21         (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 119 2.50 51% 1.00    
5  SARATOGA BANKER Nov17 Oct22 Sep22     (summer)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 12.00    
6  CAMM' DUKE Nov27 Oct21 Jul29 Jun24   (ryerson james )ADORNO ABNER 119 12.00 ★    
7  TWO CHUCKLES Dec02 Oct27       (englehart ch)CASTELLANO J 119 6.00 6% 17.10    
SCR  WEYHILL FARM RD. Jul27 Jun03       (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 119 4.50 9% 9.90    
9  SOMAMA BEACH Sep22 Sep05       (davis edmund)HARKIE K 119 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.