Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - September 25, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/25/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MINE OWN STAR Aug24 Aug03 Jul06 Jun09 May12 (knippenberg )RAMOS D 122 3.50 23% 3.30    
2  WHAT A COUNTRY Jul17 Jun30 Jun10 May06 Mar24 (cook b)BEJARANO R 122 2.50 34% 2.00    
3  CARMEL BAY Sep14 Aug24 Jun29 Jun17 May13 (shifflett cher)AYALA ISAIAS 122 8.00 ★    
4  KING'S MISCHIEF Aug25 Aug11 Jul20 Jun04 May10 (simms jr)GILLIGAN JACK 122 3.50 ★    
5  INDIMAAJ Jul17 Mar04 Jan29 Jan01   (diodoro roberti)COHEN DAVID 122 2.00 17% 5.00    
6  JAMMERS JUSTICE Aug19 Jul06 Jun03 May03 Apr15 (santamaria ca)GARCIA MARTIN 122 12.00    
 
CD-2   09/25/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IDRATHERBEBLESSED Sep16         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.00 ★    
2  PRINCE OF ROSES Aug09         (ortiz john)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 ★    
3  CHELONIAN Aug31         (cox brad)SANTANA JR 119 3.00 38% 1.60    
4  AIRTIME Aug21         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00    
5  MARTINI SHOT Aug21         (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 119 15.00    
6  HE'S A GOOD DANCER Aug28 Jul02       (ennis john)VILLASANA CARLOS 119 8.00    
7  CANAL Jun09         (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00 14% 6.00    
SCR  HILL OF TARA Aug06 Jul02 Jun19 May05   (ennis john)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.50 24% 3.20    
 
CD-3   09/25/2022 5940ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FRAGRANT Aug07 Jun23       (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 120 5.00 23% 3.30    
2  SHEZAPISTOL Aug10 May19 Apr07     (hobby steve)GARCIA MARTIN 120 12.00    
3  FINE COTTON Jul17 Jun23 May27 Apr21 Feb18 (pessin l)DIAZ RENE 119 3.50 ★    
4  CALM INSPIRATION Aug13         (pletcher t)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 ★    
5  MUSIC STREET Jun23 May27 Apr23     (beckman d)LEPAROUX R 120 8.00 ★    
6  FOREVER AFTER ALL Jul28 Jun23 May27     (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 120 1.20 51% 1.00    
 
CD-4   09/25/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUDY'S WAY Aug10 Jul27 Jul07 May31 Apr26 (silva car)PEDROZA MARCELINO 123 10.00 7% 14.10    
2  WAYWARDNESS Aug29 Aug02 Jul20 Jun08 Apr21 (lovell michel)GILLIGAN JACK 123 5.00 10% 9.10    
3  GARDENLY Jul29 Jul07 May30     (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 123 2.00 44% 1.30    
4  PISTOL Sep08 Jul29 Jun29 Jun02 Apr21 (van thomas)DIAZ RENE 113 2.50 ★    
5  SONADOR Sep16 Sep05 Jul30 Jun22 May19 (hern)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 120 4.00 17% 5.00    
SCR  BACKYARD HEN Aug18 Aug02 Jul12 Jun24 Jun09 (shifflett cher)AYALA ISAIAS 118 20.00    
7  HASHTAG WINNER Aug06 Jul07 Jun22 Mar20 Feb20 (garcia gena)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 6.00    
 
CD-5   09/25/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HELLORHIGHWATER Aug25 Jul20 May14 Mar09 Jan15 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 122 4.00 17% 4.80    
2  FERRYBOAT Aug31 Jul21 Jun21 Jun03 May14 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 124 2.50    
SCR  KIDYOUNOT Aug31 Aug02 Jul07 May30 May14 (barnett c)COURT K 122 10.00 ★    
4  GENERATOR Aug17 Jul04 Jun13 May30 Apr23 (vance d)RIQUELME J 122 15.00    
5  ZOFFA Jul17 Jun17 May28 Mar18 Feb20 (shorter aaro)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 10.00 ★    
SCR  MOUNTAIN GHOST Aug19 Jul16 Jun24 Apr24 Feb23 (wiggins l)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
7  CAUSE TO CRUISE Sep07 Jun08 May17 Mar23 Feb28 (cox brad)SANTANA JR 118 1.60 54% 0.90    
8  BARSTOW Sep15 Aug31 Jul07 Jun23 May30 (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 115 8.00 ★    
 
CD-6   09/25/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($62K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FROSTED GRACE Aug02 Jun18 May25 May07 Mar05 (habeeb donald)MORALES EDGAR 122 6.00 14% 6.10    
2  SILVER DUST Jul24 Jun23 May26     (calhoun will)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 4.00    
3  AIR ATTACK Sep05 Aug11 Jun18 Mar26 Feb10 (bauer a)BEJARANO R 122 3.00 28% 2.60    
4  ON A SPREE Aug26 Jul17 May21 May01 Mar19 (cano munoz)RIQUELME J 122 8.00 18% 4.40    
5  BOLDISH Aug24 Jan17       (sharp joe)CORRALES GERARDO 122 5.00 9% 10.50    
6  ALL WEST Aug25 Aug02 Jun29 Jun18 Apr16 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 6.00    
7  BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON Jul01 Jun05 Mar07 Feb01   (diodoro ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 ★    
 
CD-7   09/25/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHAKEDOWN STREET Jul15 Jun18       (mar)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 120 6.00    
SCR  BEYBLADER Aug27 Jun26 Jun09 May05 Mar26 (glyshaw tim)RIQUELME J 120 10.00 ★    
3  INEXORABLE Jul16 Jun25       (margolis )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 5.00 12% 7.50    
4  FLOKI'S FLIGHT Aug20 Jul24 Jun11 May08 Apr22 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 2.50 23% 3.30    
5  AUTOPOLIS Aug05         (reed r)MCKEE J 120 20.00    
6  STAND PROUD Aug05 Apr22       (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 5.00 ★    
7  GUT FEELING Aug24 Jul29 Jun03 May05 Feb26 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 34% 2.00    
8  GET THROUGH Aug28 Aug12       (combs bentley)GARCIA MARTIN 120 12.00    
SCR  B G LEE Aug22 Jul27 Jul11 Jun08   (vance tho)LEPAROUX R 120 10.00    
 
CD-8   09/25/2022 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REPUBLIQUE Aug25 Jul02 May29 Apr14   (joseph sa)LEPAROUX R 118 3.00 30% 2.30    
2  PROMISES TO DANCE Mar26 Feb10       (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 2.50 11% 8.10    
3  CHASING FIREFLIES Aug08 Jul09 Jun09     (ortiz ale)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 10.00 ★    
4  MAGIC QUEST         (arnold r)GRAHAM J 121 2.00 35% 1.90    
5  ALTERED SHOT Jul02 Jun12 May21 Apr30 Mar19 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 ★    
6  READY FOR CHANGE Aug07 May14 Mar13 Feb13   (pessin neil )BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 10.00    
 
CD-9   09/25/2022 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HIGHER STANDARD Sep03 Aug10 Jun26 Apr02 Mar09 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00    
2  SPANKSTER Aug14 Jul02 Jun12 Apr29 Apr02 (lukas wa)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 4.50 9% 10.30    
3  VERB Aug16 Jul03 Jun12 May20 May03 (cook b)BEJARANO R 121 8.00 9% 10.30    
4  CASANOVA KITTEN Sep05 Aug06 Jul04 Apr28   (ginter ray)CORRALES GERARDO 121 10.00    
5  EDGE TO EDGE Apr02 Feb20 Jan23     (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00    
6  GAGETOWN Aug17 Jul20 Jul04 Jun08   (simms j)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 6.00 9% 9.80    
7  COLTONATOR Jul03 Jun12 May15 May03 Jan14 (foley gre)PEDROZA MARCELINO 121 15.00    
8  SILK TRADE Aug20 Jul30 Jul01 May04 Apr10 (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 4.50 6% 14.50    
9  GIROLAMO'S ATTACK Aug28 Aug08 Jun03 Apr02 Jan29 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 38% 1.70    
 
CD-10   09/25/2022 3630ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HIGH CLASS Jul31         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 4.00 ★    
2  FOXPASS         (ortiz alexan)DIAZ RENE 114 20.00    
3  ROMAN GODDESS         (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
4  BOARDWALK QUEEN         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 20.00    
5  MARVELETTE         (catalano wayne )COHEN DAVID 119 20.00    
SCR  JERSEY PEARL Aug28         (lyn)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 6.00 7% 13.70    
7  HOOSIER PHILLY         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 ★    
8  PUFFIN         (catalano wa)PETERSON FERRIN 119 12.00    
SCR  TIVALI         (casse nor)LEPAROUX R 119 10.00    
10  MIGHTY MADISON         (bauer philip )TALAMO JOSEPH 119 10.00    
11  TWO ITEM SAVER         (stewart dallas)GRAHAM J 119 10.00    
12  BABY GOT BACKSPIN Aug13 Jul01       (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 2.50 71% 0.40    
13  INTO LOVE         (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00    
SCR  TELL ME WHEN Sep01 Jul21 Jun23     (hamm timot)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 ★    
SCR  SAUCY SECRET         (hobby steve)ROCCO S 119 12.00    
SCR  OPTIMIZME         (pinzon mar)VILLASANA CARLOS 119 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.