Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Friday - February 17, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (2/6/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/3/4)-(2/6/3/4/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (2/6/3/4)-(2/6/3/4/1)-(2/6/3/4/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (2/6/3/4)-(1/3/2/7/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/6/3/4)-(1/3/2/7/6)-(3/7/2) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
AQU-2   WIN (1/3/2/7/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/3/2/7/6)-(1/3/2/7/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/3/2/7/6)-(1/3/2/7/6)-(1/3/2/7/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/3/2/7/6)-(3/7/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/3/2/7/6)-(3/7/2)-(1/6/7/3/4) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
AQU-3   WIN (3/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/7/2)-(3/7/2/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/2)-(3/7/2/8/1)-(3/7/2/8/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (3/7/2)-(1/6/7/3/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (3/7/2)-(1/6/7/3/4)-(8/7/2) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
AQU-4   WIN (1/6/7/3/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/6/7/3/4)-(1/6/7/3/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/6/7/3/4)-(1/6/7/3/4)-(1/6/7/3/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/6/7/3/4)-(8/7/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/6/7/3/4)-(8/7/2)-(4/5/7/8) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
AQU-5   WIN (8/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/7/2)-(8/7/2/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/7/2)-(8/7/2/4/1)-(8/7/2/4/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (8/7/2)-(4/5/7/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/7/2)-(4/5/7/8)-(7/9) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-6   WIN (4/5/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/7/8)-(4/5/7/8/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/5/7/8)-(4/5/7/8/2)-(4/5/7/8/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (4/5/7/8)-(7/9) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/5/7/8)-(7/9)-(12/8/9) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-7   WIN (7/9) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/9)-(7/9/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/9)-(7/9/6/1)-(7/9/6/1) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (7/9)-(12/8/9) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
AQU-8   WIN (12/8/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (12/8/9)-(12/8/9/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (12/8/9)-(12/8/9/1)-(12/8/9/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   02/17/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($32K) 3 ALL PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DISTURBED Jan19 Dec01 Nov06 Oct28   (ryerson t)DAVIS DYLAN 120 8.00 ★    
2  SOUNDS SPOOKY Dec30 Nov27 Oct16 Sep05   (pletcher todd)FRANCO MANUEL 120 0.80 42% 1.40    
3  STORMANDY Feb09 Jan13 Oct22     (bake)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 3.00 12% 7.10    
4  AWESOME WEAPON         (forde jason)RICHARDS G 120 20.00 9% 9.60    
5  THAT'S MY BUSINESS Feb09 Jan20 Dec09     (pro)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 120 8.00    
6  STEADY PROGRESS Feb02 Jan19 Jan13     (chatte)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 4.00 15% 5.60    
 
AQU-2   02/17/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($20K) Purse ($44K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INDIAN BELLA Jan15 Oct11 Aug05 Jun25 May21 (englehart jeffr)DAVIS DYLAN 120 4.00 44% 1.30    
SCR  VIRADIA Jan15 Jan05 Dec03 Nov05 Sep29 (englehart jeffr)DAVIS DYLAN 120 4.00    
2  VALLARAND Feb10 Jan06 Dec10 Nov13 Oct13 (martin carlos )PENNINGTON F 123 3.50 11% 8.20    
3  BLUE PAYNT Jan27 Jan08 Nov10 Oct28 Aug01 (kantarmaci me)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.50 13% 7.00    
4  GRINGOTTS Dec30 Dec04 Nov04 Oct09 Sep15 (kles)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 6.00    
5  MARIAH'S FORTUNE Dec21 Nov30 Oct02 Aug24 Jul20 (rodriguez ru)TORRES A 116 4.00    
6  PRAIRIE FIRE Jan20 Jan05 Dec08 Nov17 Sep29 (clarke dylan)OLVER MADISON 113 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  ITS COLD IN DEHERE Feb10 Dec30 Dec11 Oct27 Mar26 (tos)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 120 6.00 9% 10.50    
 
AQU-3   02/17/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OLYMPIC DREAMS Jan19 Jun30       (quick j)DAVIS DYLAN 122 10.00 ★    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of KIROV by DISTORTED HUMOR)
2  CENTRAL PRIDE Jan19 Dec03 Nov11 Nov05 Oct07 (atras rob)LEZCANO JOSE 122 6.00 16% 5.10    
  (by LORD NELSON out of COREY'S HOLIDAY by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
3  SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS         (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 122 2.00 37% 1.70    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of KHANCORD KID by LEMON DROP KID)
4  VALENTINO'S HERE Jan19 Nov20 Oct21 Sep24 Sep02 (brown r)DAVIS KATIE 122 15.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of NEVER MISS A TRICK by ANASHEED)
5  TIE BREAKER Oct20 Aug15       (dug)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 122 12.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of SHE'LL BE RIGHT by SKY MESA)
6  SQUID GAMER         (baker cha)VARGAS A 122 10.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of SHOW ME THE CARATS by MORE THAN READY)
7  REFUAH Jan19 Nov27 Oct20 Sep23 Jul03 (walder r)CANCEL ERIC 122 2.50 20% 4.10    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of SMITTEN CAT by TALE OF THE CAT)
8  EIGHT AND SAND Dec11 Nov13 Oct07 Sep17 Aug10 (giangiulio mic)PENNINGTON F 122 4.00 ★    
  (by MUNNINGS out of SEE THE FOREST by FORESTRY)
 
AQU-4   02/17/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($35K) Purse ($45K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:51
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COMPLETE AGENDA Jan14 Jan07 Dec09 Nov19 Oct01 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 123 1.60 24% 3.20    
2  DOCTOR LOVE (FR) Jan20 Jan07 Dec10 Oct23 Oct07 (morley thomas)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.50    
3  IRISH EXIT Dec07 Nov16 Oct25 Sep14 Aug23 (servis c)PENNINGTON F 120 12.00 13% 7.00    
4  HANG TIGHT Feb05 Jan28 Jan08 Dec02 Oct16 (thompson)GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BREADMAN Dec15 Nov26 Nov19 Nov11 Nov05 (persaud rand)TORRES A 116 6.00    
6  FROMANOTHAMUTHA Jan07 Nov13 Oct08 Aug19 Apr09 (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 123 6.00 17% 4.70    
7  BLU GROTTO Jan07 Dec18 Nov19 Oct02 Apr07 (kimmel)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 4.50 14% 6.40    
 
AQU-5   02/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 3 F PT- 3:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WONDER GIRL Jan29         (klesaris rob)TORRES A 113 15.00 ★    
  (by KLIMT out of LADY LYDIE by TALE OF EKATI)
2  RISK FREE Jan29 Jan07 Dec15 Nov10 Oct23 (delauro edward )CANCEL ERIC 120 6.00 25% 3.00    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of KEEP CROSSING by ISTAN)
3  MY GIRL JAL         (legall ricar)SAMUEL L 120 20.00    
  (by PALACE out of DYNAMITE DAME by EL PRADO (IRE))
4  SWANSON LAKE         (mccarthy mich)FRANCO MANUEL 120 4.00 ★    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of SCATTERED CLOUDS by SCAT DADDY)
5  TAP IT UP Nov27 Nov04 Oct08 Sep22   (ryer)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 15.00    
  (by TAPWRIT out of POCKET OF ACES by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
6  BALENTINA Jan07         (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 6.00    
  (by TAPWRIT out of WAKE ME UP by ACT OF WAR)
7  FABULOUSLY FUNNY Jan07         (dutrow anthony)LEZCANO JOSE 120 2.00 26% 2.80    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of JUST FABULOUS by INCLUDE)
8  SPELTERINI Jan07 Nov05 Oct02 Aug21 Jul14 (mott i)DAVIS DYLAN 120 2.50 27% 2.70    
  (by BERNARDINI out of KEEPSHERCOOL by SMART STRIKE)
 
AQU-6   02/17/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($74K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MASKED MARAUDER Feb11 Jan19 Nov30 Oct23 Sep14 (mart)HUAYAS (JASON) 111 15.00    
2  DURKIN'S CALL Jan21 Jan06 Dec02 Nov18 Oct08 (baker charlton)PENNINGTON F 118 12.00 ★    
SCR  WHITTINGTON PARK Dec29 Nov14 Oct18 Sep18 Aug20 (englehart jerem)DAVIS DYLAN 123 8.00    
4  SCILLY CAY Feb10 Jan07 Dec30 Dec17 Nov10 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 120 4.50 33% 2.10    
5  WRITER'S REGRET Feb05 Jan08 Jul25 Jun27 May30 (d'alessandro)TORRES A 113 5.00 24% 3.20    
6  LISTENTOYOURHEART Jan21 Aug26 Jul10 May14   (handal raymond)DAVIS KATIE 118 10.00    
7  MAJORITY PARTNER Sep23 Aug27 Jul14 Apr30 Mar12 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 3.00 13% 6.80    
8  EXCELLENT TIMING Jan21 Dec10 Sep23 Aug26   (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 118 2.00 7% 13.10    
 
AQU-7   02/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3 F PT- 4:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOCKBOX Jan22 Dec04 Nov08     (d'alessandro r)PENNINGTON F 122 20.00 ★    
2  PRETTY MISS KEENS Jan20 Dec16 Dec03 Oct01 Sep02 (weaver georg)TORRES A 113 20.00    
SCR  LUNA LOCA Jan06 Nov26 Oct08 Aug18 Jul27 (duggan p)DAVIS DYLAN 120 5.00 9% 10.70    
4  QUEENS MASTERPIECE Nov19         (bond jam)CANCEL ERIC 122 12.00    
5  SECURITY CODE Jan22 Dec04 Nov20 Oct30 Sep23 (serpe ph)GOMEZ ANTONIO 122 8.00    
6  VAX Jan27 Dec30 Nov27 Nov04 Oct01 (maker mic)VARGAS A 122 10.00 ★    
7  MIDTOWN LIGHTS Dec17 Dec03 Oct28 Sep17   (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 122 2.50 44% 1.30    
8  MY SWEET KHAILE Jan03 Dec06       (romero rafael)MILAN GERARDO 120 30.00    
9  DOWNTOWN MISCHIEF Jan14         (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 1.40 24% 3.20    
 
AQU-8   02/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($35K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FULIGNI Jan01 Dec08 Nov12 Sep03 Aug03 (bond harold )TORRES A 118 6.00 ★    
2  DELIGHTFUL RITA         (donk david)LUZZI J 118 20.00    
3  WINE GODDESS Feb02 Jan20 Dec29 Dec02 Aug31 (klesaris robert)DAVIS DYLAN 125 6.00    
4  MY INNER VOICE         (romero rafael)BOWMAN ADAM 118 20.00    
5  MADAME ROSE Dec08 Oct13 Sep04 Aug06 Jul29 (jones ed)DAVIS A 125 20.00    
SCR  SCOREBOARD LILY Feb01 Jan13 Oct05 Sep16 Aug18 (lucas bonnie)ADORNO ABNER 125 12.00 21% 3.70    
7  WAR MUSEUM         (levi)HUAYAS (JASON) 118 10.00    
8  BAD CONNECTION         (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 118 3.50 23% 3.30    
9  MRS BELL Jan27 Dec27 Dec14 May12 Apr26 (luc)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 125 8.00 6% 14.60    
10  MAIZE LOVED LAFFY Jan27 Jan06 Nov30 Nov07 Oct26 (chichakly ami)OLVER MADISON 111 12.00    
11  FOLLOW THE FED Jan14 Dec16 Dec02 Oct23 Sep30 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 10.00    
12  FLATTERING GAL Feb02 Dec29 Dec08 Nov12 Oct13 (noda orlando)CANCEL ERIC 125 4.50 25% 3.10    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.