Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Wednesday - April 16, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
KEE-1   WIN (5/2/3/4/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/2/3/4/6)-(5/2/3/4/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/2/3/4/6)-(5/2/3/4/6)-(5/2/3/4/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/2/3/4/6)-(6/1/10/8/5) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (5/2/3/4/6)-(6/1/10/8/5)-(8/5/6) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
KEE-2   WIN (6/1/10/8/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/1/10/8/5)-(6/1/10/8/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/1/10/8/5)-(6/1/10/8/5)-(6/1/10/8/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/1/10/8/5)-(8/5/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/1/10/8/5)-(8/5/6)-(10/11/1/4/5) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
KEE-3   WIN (8/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/5/6)-(8/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/5/6)-(8/5/6)-(8/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/5/6)-(10/11/1/4/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/5/6)-(10/11/1/4/5)-(3/1/6/5/12) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
KEE-4   WIN (10/11/1/4/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/11/1/4/5)-(10/11/1/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/11/1/4/5)-(10/11/1/4/5)-(10/11/1/4/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/11/1/4/5)-(3/1/6/5/12) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (10/11/1/4/5)-(3/1/6/5/12)-(5/7/8/4) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-5   WIN (3/1/6/5/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/1/6/5/12)-(3/1/6/5/13/12) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (3/1/6/5/12)-(3/1/6/5/13/12)-(3/1/6/5/13/12) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
    DD (3/1/6/5/12)-(5/7/8/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/1/6/5/12)-(5/7/8/4)-(12/9/8/1/11) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-6   WIN (5/7/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/7/8/4)-(5/7/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/7/8/4)-(5/7/8/4)-(5/7/8/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/7/8/4)-(12/9/8/1/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/7/8/4)-(12/9/8/1/11)-(4/1/5/10/2) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-7   WIN (12/9/8/1/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (12/9/8/1/11)-(12/9/8/1/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (12/9/8/1/11)-(12/9/8/1/11)-(12/9/8/1/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (12/9/8/1/11)-(4/1/5/10/2) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
KEE-8   WIN (4/1/5/10/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/1/5/10/2)-(4/1/5/10/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   04/16/2025 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 2 F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  VIBORA (URU)         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 119 3.00    
  (by HOOTENANNY out of TOUCH AND SMILE by GHOSTZAPPER)
2  EVOLUTION         (david carlos )ORTIZ JR 119 4.50 12% 7.50    
  (by BRETHREN out of SWEET KHALEESI by MAIMONIDES)
3  NANZIG         (ennis john)MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of COUNT TO ELEVEN by GRAND SLAM)
4  FROSTY MOJITO         (mcentee paul)SERPA ANGEL 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FROSTED out of MY AUNT MO by UNCLE MO)
5  SATISFIED MIND         (ward a)ROSARIO JOEL 119 1.80 43% 1.30    
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of ROUGE by QUALITY ROAD)
6  MESCOOL         (torres marceli)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of FASHIONABLY COOL by TIZNOW)
7  BACKGAMMON         (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00    
  (by MAXIMUM SECURITY out of VINDICATED GHOST by VINDICATION)
8  LITTLE SAM'S         (acevedo isra)CALLEJA ANDRES 119 30.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of SAM'S STONE by DISCREET CAT)
9  DARING MOVE         (hancock a)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 6.00    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of NASHINDY by A.P. INDY)
10  PURELY ZEN         (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of ETERNAL PEACE by WAR FRONT)
SCR  CHEEKWOOD         (colebroo)RODRIGUEZ A 119 20.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of MADERA DANCER by RAHY)
 
KEE-2   04/16/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG EARN Mar13 Feb02 Jan24 Dec27 Dec02 (asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 125 4.50 28% 2.60    
2  MISS MONROE COUNTY Mar01 Feb05 Jul11     (lovell mich)ALVARADO JUNIOR 125 12.00    
3  MENU PLEASE (IRE) Mar28 Feb15       (walsh bren)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00    
4  WRECK IT RUBY Dec06 Nov24 Nov01 Oct21 Sep20 (brownfield cla)MACHADO LUAN 125 30.00    
5  LADY BLAKE         (wojczynski just)SERPA ANGEL 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
6  CASILDA Feb20 Jan25 Dec28 Nov30   (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 1.50 34% 2.00    
7  FIFTH OF MAY Feb22 Jan17 Nov23 Oct09 Aug31 (colebrook ben)SAEZ LUIS 125 12.00    
8  VIOLENCES OHR Mar03         (calhoun willia)ORTIZ L 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
9  TIP TAP Mar12 Feb01       (drury thomas)MONCADA IRVING 113 15.00    
10  RED ROYALTY Mar12 Feb14 Nov23     (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 118 12.00 7% 13.40    
11  TRUTHORCONSEQUENCE Mar14 Feb01 Dec26 Nov15 Oct12 (catalano wayn)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
SCR  VILEY LANE         (mckeever andr)CANNON DECLAN 125 20.00    
SCR  TEMPTING LADY Jan03 Nov18 Sep25 Aug19 Apr13 (newton tr)LEPAROUX R 125 20.00    
14  WHAT'S HER NUMBER Feb17 Jan26 Jan05 Nov28 Nov06 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 125 4.00    
SCR  LEILAUNI SUE Mar22 Mar01 Feb08 Dec22   (ortiz joh)LEPAROUX R 125 6.00    
SCR  WICKED EYES Mar18 Jan17 Nov17     (torres conc)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 30.00    
 
KEE-3   04/16/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($69K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  I'M YOUR MAN Mar18 Jan17 Dec27 Nov20 Nov06 (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
2  GUANARE Feb12 Jan03 Dec07 May04 Apr06 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 118 20.00    
SCR  RELEASE MCCRAKEN Feb06 Jan19 Nov23 Sep28 Sep04 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 2.00    
4  BABA VOSS Feb06 Dec28 Dec01 Jun29 May18 (cowans willia)ORTIZ JR 118 4.00    
5  GILMORE Mar13 Feb06 Dec13 Nov02 Oct13 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 118 4.50 24% 3.20    
6  MANFREDI Mar13 Jan29 Oct15 Aug27 Jul30 (reed eri)RODRIGUEZ A 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
7  COPPERMASTER Mar01 Feb01 Jan04 Dec07 Nov07 (troiani nicc)MONCADA IRVING 113 15.00    
8  SLIP MAHONEY Aug04 Jul07 Nov28 Sep23 Aug26 (d'angelo fra)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 45% 1.20    
 
KEE-4   04/16/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOD OF WINE Mar28 Mar08 Feb08 Jan18 Nov13 (cristel mark)TORRES A 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  ONE FOR MY BROTHER Mar29 Mar08 Feb14 Feb01 Jan23 (vosler eugene)LEBRON VICTOR 124 30.00    
3  CRIMINAL DEFENSE Mar21 Feb28 Feb08 Dec29 Nov27 (barnett c)GRAHAM J 124 30.00    
4  CAUSE A RUCKUS Mar08 Jan24 Nov14 Oct17 Aug22 (gonzalez lil)MONCADA IRVING 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  OSCARSSON Mar21 Feb27 Jan18 Dec13 Jul28 (jarvis k)RODRIGUEZ A 124 30.00 5% 19.00    
6  DEWY'S BEAST Feb26 Feb12 Jan30 Jan04 Dec12 (salas marceli)GARCIA MARTIN 124 6.00    
7  CANDYLAND PHIL Mar15 Feb06 Jan24 Jan15 Dec20 (knudsen kent)COHEN DAVID 118 20.00    
8  COACH CAMPBELL Mar28 Mar14 Feb21 Jan25 Jan04 (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 126 8.00    
9  ODDSONTONY Mar08 Feb01 Jan04 May18 Apr28 (begley greg)SAEZ LUIS 124 10.00    
10  DOUBLE BARREL Mar22 Feb24 Jan26 Dec14 Jul13 (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 1.40 50% 1.00    
11  PANTHOR Mar29 Mar19 Feb26 Feb13 Jan23 (donjuan sergi)JIMENEZ ALBIN 126 4.50 25% 3.00    
 
KEE-5   04/16/2025 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($110K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BUNDCHEN Feb14 Jan17 Dec12 Oct31 Aug31 (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 125 6.00 27% 2.70    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of NO MORE PARTIES by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
2  MAURYA Aug16 Jun13 May26     (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 125 15.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of MANDA BAY by EMPIRE MAKER)
3  CANDY MINE Aug25         (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 28% 2.60    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of TIZ RAE ANNA by TIZ WONDERFUL)
4  DEAR SCARLETT Aug05 Jun18       (pessin nei)HERNANDEZ J 125 30.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of BUTTERNUT BLOOMERS by CURLIN)
5  FOZZER Mar06 Dec11       (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00 10% 8.60    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of FUJAIRAH by GHOSTZAPPER)
6  SOFTWARE Jul13         (motion graha)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 5.00 11% 7.90    
  (by MUNNINGS out of SOLDATA by MARIA'S MON)
SCR  IZZY SWEET GIRL (IRE) Mar06 Jan04 May02 Mar29   (brinkman brett)CURTIS BEN 125 10.00    
  (by KODIAC out of BIONIC BUFFY by DARK ANGEL)
8  PRACTICAL LOV Mar16 Feb09 Jul14     (mott william )VELAZQUEZ R 118 3.50    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of LOVISA by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  LORIEBETH         (taylor bren)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 20.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of MY AUNT BETH by HAYNESFIELD)
10  MAGIC ESCAPADE         (drury jr)SAEZ LUIS 125 6.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of DON'T LEAVE ME by LEMON DROP KID)
11  EMOJI Mar16         (oliver victo)GEROUX FLORENT 118 20.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of SARCASTIC by SMART ALEC)
12  MORINGA Mar28 Mar07 Feb21 Nov15 Oct25 (chavez manue)BARBOSA CARLOS 125 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SUMMER FRONT out of LADY SIPHONICA by SIPHON (BRZ))
13  MACLEAN'S LULLABY Mar06 Feb08 Jan23 Dec26 Nov28 (matejka pavel)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 ★    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of JOYFUL HOLIDAY by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
SCR  SALTY SENORITA         (russell brit)TORRES A 118 10.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of TAKING AIM by TRAPPE SHOT)
SCR  GREY MATTER         (baltas rich)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 12.00    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of NOBLE GREY by FORESTRY)
SCR  BLACKJACK MARY         (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 8.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of ALJULJALAH by EXCHANGE RATE)
 
KEE-6   04/16/2025 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($120K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JIMMY RULES Mar22 Feb15 Jan18 Dec14 Oct31 (anderson)RODRIGUEZ A 118 6.00    
2  TIVY Feb15 Jan18 Dec28 Nov16 Oct05 (antonucci jen)VELAZQUEZ R 118 4.50    
3  JUSTIFREAK Oct30 Sep21 Aug04 Jun30 Mar20 (kenneally eddi)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 4.00    
4  SUMMONYOURCOURAGE Mar22 Jan29 Dec20 Nov23 Nov09 (esquivel j)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  DARIOUSH Mar08         (stidham michael)CURTIS BEN 120 3.50 25% 3.00    
6  AUGUSTA MELODY Mar04 May27 Mar10 May29 Feb05 (russell britt)ORTIZ JR 118 3.00    
7  GREAT RICHIE M Feb23 Jan25 Jan04 Dec01 Oct18 (maker michael )MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00 23% 3.30    
8  TRUST ISSUES Feb15 Dec28 Nov23 Nov08 Sep22 (lovell michelle)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00 16% 5.10    
 
KEE-7   04/16/2025 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SATIN BLUE Nov10 Oct20 Sep01 Jul27 Jun26 (sharp joe)DETTORI LANFRANCO 124 5.00 10% 8.60    
2  TALES OF THE HEART (IRE)         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 6.00    
3  LATIN FEVER (IRE)         (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00    
4  ELEGANT Jun13 May11 Mar24 Mar04 Feb11 (brisset rodolp)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 6.00    
5  COTILLARD Nov30 Nov07 Oct11 Sep08 May22 (seglin e)RIQUELME J 118 30.00    
6  SWEET BEBSI Mar20 Feb26 Feb01 Nov15 Oct06 (walsh d)MORALES EDGAR 118 30.00    
7  LA FORET Mar08 Feb06 Nov22 Oct16 Sep15 (catalano m)CURTIS BEN 124 15.00    
8  DALA Mar07         (harty eoin)VELAZQUEZ R 124 8.00 15% 5.50    
9  SATURDAY FLIRT Apr26         (ward a)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50 23% 3.30    
10  DREAM ON STORMY Mar22 Feb27 Oct26 Oct03 Aug29 (winston )RODRIGUEZ A 124 50.00    
11  UNHIDDEN GEM (IRE) Oct20 Sep11 Aug22     (stall albe)HERNANDEZ J 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
12  BIG TROUBLE Mar04 Feb01 Nov22 Oct20 Sep08 (foley greg)ORTIZ L 124 4.50 30% 2.30    
SCR  CABERNEIGH Mar22 Dec04 Oct16 Aug10 Jul13 (barker w)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 20.00    
SCR  BONNE FILLE Nov07 Oct18 Sep08 Jul11 Jun21 (giddings melan)DOYLE SOPHIE 118 30.00    
SCR  STELLAR ASSET Mar22 Feb16 Dec24 Sep29 Jun14 (hamm timothy)TORRES A 118 8.00    
SCR  LA MARINERA Mar01 Feb08 Jan17 Dec26 Dec13 (fernandez kel)ORANTES CESAR 108 30.00    
 
KEE-8   04/16/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($51K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRINCESS IS OLIVIA Mar01 Jan03 Nov13 Oct26 Sep25 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50 27% 2.80    
2  COULD BE A COUGAR Mar14 Jan29 Dec06 Aug30 Jul08 (cruz jesus)CURTIS BEN 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BEAU SOLEIL Mar17 Feb15 Dec15 Nov24 Aug25 (hess b)ORTIZ JR 118 4.50    
4  WE'LL DO IT LIVE Mar04 Jan05 Nov04 Oct16 Aug25 (diodoro r)TORRES A 120 3.50 30% 2.30    
5  THERESASILVERLININ Feb23 Oct20 Aug31 Jul17 Jun27 (maker michael )MACHADO LUAN 118 2.50 23% 3.40    
6  SALLY'S SUPRISE Feb22 Jan04 Dec12 Oct19 Oct03 (rodriguez edua)ORTIZ L 118 6.00    
7  FRANGO ELECTRICO Mar14 Jan31 Jan01 Dec19 Dec01 (bahena i)RODRIGUEZ A 120 20.00    
8  VERY WEALTHY Mar29 Mar07 Feb13 Jan16 Jan02 (lucas wayne)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
9  SANDRINHA LOVE Mar29 Mar14 Feb27 Feb05 Jan15 (decker anna)SERPA ANGEL 118 30.00    
10  TALKIN IN CURSIVE Mar29 Feb26 Feb08 Jan30 Jan01 (esquivel jesus)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
11  LUCKY PHOENIX Mar15 Feb28 Jan27 Jan01 Aug08 (herrell d)FLACO ARCELIO 118 30.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.