Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Saturday - January 11, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (3/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/5)-(3/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/5)-(3/1/5)-(3/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/5)-(5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/1/5)-(5/4)-(7/5/4) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-2   WIN (5/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/4)-(5/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (5/4)-(7/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/4)-(7/5/4)-(2/5/6/4) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-3   WIN (7/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/5/4)-(7/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/5/4)-(7/5/4)-(7/5/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/5/4)-(2/5/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/5/4)-(2/5/6/4)-(4/6/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-4   WIN (2/5/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/6/4)-(2/5/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/5/6/4)-(2/5/6/4)-(2/5/6/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/5/6/4)-(4/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/5/6/4)-(4/6/1)-(1/6/7/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-5   WIN (4/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/1)-(4/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/1)-(4/6/1)-(4/6/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/6/1)-(1/6/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/6/1)-(1/6/7/2)-(2/4/5/3/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
AQU-6   WIN (1/6/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/7/2)-(1/6/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/7/2)-(1/6/7/2)-(1/6/7/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/6/7/2)-(2/4/5/3/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/6/7/2)-(2/4/5/3/6)-(5/11/3/4/6) 100 $1.00 $100 
AQU-7   WIN (2/4/5/3/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/4/5/3/6)-(2/4/5/3/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/4/5/3/6)-(2/4/5/3/6)-(2/4/5/3/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/4/5/3/6)-(5/11/3/4/6) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (2/4/5/3/6)-(5/11/3/4/6)-(10/6/5/1) 100 $1.00 $100 
AQU-8   WIN (5/11/3/4/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/11/3/4/6)-(5/11/3/4/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/11/3/4/6)-(5/11/3/4/6)-(5/11/3/4/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/11/3/4/6)-(10/6/5/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
AQU-9   WIN (10/6/5/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/6/5/1)-(10/6/5/1/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/6/5/1)-(10/6/5/1/3)-(10/6/5/1/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   01/11/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($35K) Purse ($44K) 4UP ALL PT-12:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JAVA BUZZ Nov24 Oct25 Sep15 Aug14 Jul21 (rod)VAZQUEZ GIAN 113 8.00 23% 3.30    
SCR  NARCISO DALI Apr04 Mar10 Feb10 Jan14 Dec16 (englehart chris)CANCEL ERIC 123 3.00    
3  AUGUSTINE RED Nov24 Jun21 Apr26 Apr06 Feb25 (kantarmaci ilk)CIVACI SAHIN 123 3.00 42% 1.40    
4  VINSANITY Dec28 Dec07 Nov09 Oct25 Sep27 (arriaga antonio)VIVES SOFIA 123 4.50    
5  MUAZARAH Dec27 Dec01 Nov17 Oct31 Oct10 (trites land)OLVER MADISON 123 6.00 5% 19.00    
6  IRIDESCENT Dec07 Oct31 Sep15 Aug11 Jul18 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 123 2.00    
 
AQU-2   01/11/2025 5940ft DIRT RC11 FAST Ladies Purse ($150K) 4UP M/F PT-12:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIZZY IN THE SKY Dec07 Jun08 Apr14 Feb17 Dec02 (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 124 0.80    
  (by SKY KINGDOM out of TIZ THE TIDE by TIZNOW)
SCR  JUST MUSIC Dec06 Oct19 Aug23 Jul21 Jul11 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 118 15.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of NICHOLESLUCKYCHARM by TIZNOW)
3  EVIDENCIAS (BRZ) Dec21 Nov03 Sep18 Aug04 Jun15 (clement christo)CANCEL ERIC 122 6.00    
  (by DROSSELMEYER out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
4  COMPARATIVE Dec07 Apr14 Mar09 Feb02 Jan06 (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 124 4.50 13% 6.60    
  (by STREET SENSE out of COLLECTIVE by CHARISMATIC)
5  JULIA SHINING Dec01 May17 Apr13 Nov25 Oct28 (pletcher a)DAVIS DYLAN 118 2.00 30% 2.40    
  (by CURLIN out of DREAMING OF JULIA by A.P. INDY)
 
AQU-3   01/11/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($29K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CAMM' DUKE Dec27 Nov01 Oct04 Aug09 Jul06 (ryerson)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 118 4.50    
2  MAJESTIC ARC Dec28 Dec01 Nov10 Oct31 Jun09 (shivmangal loli)DAVIS KATIE 123 20.00    
3  KING FREUD Oct05 Sep21 Aug04 Jun30 Jun14 (rodrigue)VILLA FAVINHO 123 12.00    
4  MASTERWORK Dec28 Dec01 Nov17 Oct25 Sep29 (follett norman)BROWN DALTON 123 10.00 8% 11.10    
5  CONNIVING Dec28 Nov30 Nov17 Oct25 Oct10 (figueroa carlo)LUZZI J 123 4.00 29% 2.40    
6  ALWAYS A WARRIOR Dec14 Nov03 May06 Mar10 Jan28 (david a)VIVES SOFIA 123 3.50    
7  YORK TAVERN Dec28 Nov30 Nov10 Oct13 Sep21 (potts wayne)LEZCANO JOSE 123 1.20 37% 1.70    
 
AQU-4   01/11/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($35K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG RICH Dec29 Nov22 Oct27 Aug28 Aug15 (ferraro james )LUZZI J 123 5.00    
2  D DAY SKY Dec14 Nov21 Oct14 Sep21 Aug17 (potts wa)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 118 1.40 41% 1.50    
3  JUST BE HONEST Dec14 Nov24 Nov07 Sep25 Sep02 (ryerson)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 118 6.00    
4  CONCORDE SPIRIT Dec28 Nov15 Sep26 Aug28 Aug15 (delauro edward )CANCEL ERIC 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  SECRET TREASURE Dec15 Oct21 Oct08 Sep03 Aug20 (trombetta micha)DAVIS DYLAN 123 6.00 25% 3.10    
6  FINAL DENILE Dec01 Nov23 Oct04 Aug24 Jul14 (de horacio)CARMOUCHE K 123 4.00 13% 6.60    
7  GOLDEN PURCHASE Dec29 Nov30 Nov10 Oct25 Oct13 (jones)HERNANDEZ OMAR 123 8.00    
 
AQU-5   01/11/2025 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 3 ALL PT- 2:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GRAND COMMANDER         (brown r)DAVIS DYLAN 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GIRVIN out of UNDISTORTED by DISTORTED HUMOR)
1A  GOURMET DINNER         (brown b)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 115 8.00    
  (by GLOBAL CAMPAIGN out of SWEETHEART DEAL by KANTHAROS)
SCR  ORGONITE         (donk david)CARMOUCHE K 120 8.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of HESSONITE by FREUD)
3  T KRAFT Nov16 Oct11 Aug29 Jul27 Jun15 (mott i)CIVACI SAHIN 120 2.50    
  (by CONNECT out of MARGARITA FRIDAY by JOHANNESBURG)
4  ONE NINE HUNDRED         (morley thomas)LEZCANO JOSE 120 2.00 43% 1.30    
  (by DIALED IN out of HEDONISM by CURLIN)
5  SENOR PONCHO         (summers ch)RIVERA R 120 3.50    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of GIFTED GLORY by TAPIT)
6  SOCIAL HOUR Nov07 Oct13 Aug17 Jul20   (toscano t)CANCEL ERIC 120 4.50 26% 2.80    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of RUMANDICE by CONGRATS)
SCR  SWEETENTHEDEAL Dec17         (dimitriou h)CORUJO LEONARDO 120 30.00    
  (by FRIESAN FIRE out of SWEET LITTLE LIES by DISCREET CAT)
 
AQU-6   01/11/2025 5940ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FRIZZANTE Dec13 Sep29 Aug16 Jul04 Jun23 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 121 1.60 38% 1.70    
2  SCAT TU TAP Dec14 Nov29 Nov09 Oct26 Sep19 (arriaga anton)FRANCO MANUEL 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  SENEGAL Dec15 Oct31 Oct01 Sep01 Aug18 (englehart jerem)VIVES SOFIA 123 12.00    
4  STRAPPED Dec28 Nov21 Sep21 Aug31 Jul27 (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 123 5.00    
5  MELT WITH YOU Dec28 Dec12 Nov19 Oct26 Oct08 (potts wa)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 118 6.00    
6  WAITLIST Oct19 Sep01 Jul24 Jun09 May12 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 121 3.50 18% 4.60    
7  TRAFFIC MASTER Dec14 Nov12 Oct16 Sep23 Sep02 (ness jamie)SANCHEZ J 123 5.00 11% 8.30    
 
AQU-7   01/11/2025 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($82K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SARIR Nov29 Oct10 Jul29 Jun06 Apr20 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 121 8.00    
SCR  SAVE US MELANIA Dec27 Dec13 Nov16 Sep19 Aug11 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 123 8.00    
2  BELLS BEACH Nov16 Jul12 Jun01 Apr05   (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 121 2.50 28% 2.50    
3  PATTY CAKES Jun09 May11 Mar30 Mar09 Feb20 (de hor)RIVERA R 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  POINTS IS POINTS Dec27 Oct25       (cox h)VIVES SOFIA 123 6.00 27% 2.70    
5  PRIDES CROSSING May25         (walden william)DAVIS DYLAN 121 3.50 19% 4.30    
6  NEXT ON STAGE Dec01 Nov01 Oct04 Sep02 Jul25 (handal )ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
7  BROWN SUGA BABE Dec06 Nov07 Oct10 Sep27 Sep02 (ness jamie)SILVERA RUBEN 123 8.00    
8  DOT MARIE Nov26 Nov05 Jun22 Jun06 Nov25 (caramori ed)MARTINEZ R 121 30.00    
9  STAMP OF APPROVAL Dec06 Oct24 Jun16 Mar10 Feb11 (hennig mark)CIVACI SAHIN 121 30.00    
10  BERNIETAKESCHARGE Dec06 Oct10 Aug28 Jul18 Jun09 (schett)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 15.00    
11  FADE TO GREY Dec06 Oct19 Sep22 Jul17 Jun16 (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 123 6.00    
 
AQU-8   01/11/2025 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($76K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STOP THE SPREAD Nov20 Oct30 Oct07 Aug31 Aug18 (caramori ed)MARTINEZ R 121 20.00    
2  HE HAS IT ALL Nov30 Aug15 Jul20 Jun14 May18 (handal)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 12.00    
3  ON THE HILL Nov20 Aug21 Jul20 Jun28 May12 (bond jam)CARMOUCHE K 123 5.00 5% 19.00    
4  BOSS THREE O TWO Apr21 Mar10       (dutrow r)GOMEZ ANTONIO 121 4.50 5% 19.00    
5  GRAYWING Dec15 Nov15 Oct04 Sep24 Aug21 (englehart chris)DAVIS DYLAN 123 3.50 42% 1.40    
6  COURAGEOOUS OH LA Dec15 Nov20 Nov11 Oct28 Oct16 (dixon k)RUIZ ELISEO 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  GOLDEN ARM Dec28 Dec13 Nov16 Nov05 Oct28 (smith la)DAVIS A 121 50.00    
8  KID BILLY Nov15 Jan13 Dec16 Nov18 Dec31 (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 121 6.00    
9  I GOT BUSTED Nov20 Oct14 Sep30 Feb19 Feb02 (barrow paul)LUZZI J 123 10.00    
10  COLLECTED SPECIAL Dec15 Nov08 Jun22 May12 Apr26 (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 121 20.00    
11  TRA LAD May27 May06 Dec30 Nov22 Nov01 (o'callahan carl)VIVES SOFIA 121 8.00 29% 2.40    
12  HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPS Jun16 May12 Apr14 Feb25 Feb03 (rodriguez rudy )DAVIS KATIE 121 10.00    
13  MESSI THE MAGICIAN Nov29 Nov15 Oct12 Jun22 May02 (shivmang)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 116 30.00    
 
AQU-9   01/11/2025 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($74K) 3 ALL PT- 4:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JOKER ON FIRE Dec08 Nov17 Oct26 Sep29 Aug21 (levine )ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 115 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of FIRE ASSAY by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
2  DISCO DERVISH         (lugovich lisa )LUZZI J 120 30.00    
  (by DISCO PARTNER out of MAD AS THE DEVIL by DEVIL HIS DUE)
3  ROCK STAR REBEL Oct31 Oct06 Sep02 Aug15   (baker charlton)CANCEL ERIC 120 12.00 ★    
  (by THOUSAND WORDS out of SHEZA ROCKSTAR by MORE THAN READY)
4  ATTORNEY WADE         (kimmel c)CIVACI SAHIN 120 10.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of HIGH PITCH by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
5  FREE DANCE Dec08 Nov02 Oct06 Sep02   (handal)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of PIROUETTE by TWIRLING CANDY)
6  PRINCE VALIANT Dec08         (pletcher a)DAVIS DYLAN 120 4.00 32% 2.20    
  (by KING FOR A DAY out of LIZZY'S FUN by D' FUNNYBONE)
7  E Z BOURBON         (hennig mar)RIVERA R 120 20.00    
  (by INSTAGRAND out of E Z PASSER by SOUTHERN IMAGE)
SCR  LATE NIGHT BOSS         (englehart jere)LEZCANO JOSE 120 6.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of SAFTA by DIALED IN)
9  RAGTIME PRANKSTER Oct27 Sep29       (hennig mark)DAVIS KATIE 120 20.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of SILLY SISTER by BROKEN VOW)
10  VEKINDA Dec08 Oct27 Sep29     (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.00 44% 1.30    
  (by VEKOMA out of VINDA by VINDICATION)
11  TOTAL SILENCE Dec07 Nov02       (gargan danny)CARMOUCHE K 120 12.00    
  (by GORMLEY out of SILENCIA by SILENT NAME)
12  FIRST PITCH         (jimenez l)VIVES SOFIA 120 30.00    
  (by IMPROBABLE out of GIANT BLOSSOM by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.