Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Sunday - August 20, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-3   WIN (2/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/6/3)-(2/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/6/3)-(2/6/3)-(2/6/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (2/6/3)-(5/6/2)-(6/3/5) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ARP-4   WIN (5/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/2)-(5/6/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/6/2)-(5/6/2)-(5/6/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (5/6/2)-(6/3/5)-(5/4/6) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ARP-5   WIN (6/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/5)-(6/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3/5)-(6/3/5)-(6/3/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (6/3/5)-(5/4/6)-(4/3/1) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ARP-6   WIN (5/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/6)-(5/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/6)-(5/4/6)-(5/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (5/4/6)-(4/3/1)-(1/2) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
ARP-7   WIN (4/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/1)-(4/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/1)-(4/3/1)-(4/3/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
ARP-8   WIN (1/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/2)-(1/2/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (1/2)-(1/2/3)-(1/2/3) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-3   08/20/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($4.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG BLUE OKIE Aug06 Jul15 Jun19 May13   (deisley gale)GONZALEZ PEDRO 124 10.00    
2  SWAY BACK WHEN Jul29 Jul10 Sep27 Sep13 Aug30 (martinez a)WALES T 124 2.50 44% 1.30    
3  BIG JUAN         (chavez juan)TORRES J 117 12.00 15% 5.50    
4  CORTE Jul29 Jul02 Jun18 May27 Apr29 (hibdon n)LUARK T 124 15.00    
5  MAJOR TIMING Aug06 Jul23 Jun19     (parsons ril)MORALES ROBERTO 121 6.00    
6  CREDIT RATING Aug06 Jul15       (triana marti)RAMOS B 120 3.50 18% 4.60    
SCR  BARREL MAN Jul29 Jul15 Jul02     (triana jua)BARRIENTOS ANGEL 117 4.50    
 
ARP-4   08/20/2023 5280ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($5K) Purse ($6.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ITS FIVE SOMEWHERE Jul29 Jul16 Jun18 Apr15 Mar25 (esquibel mark)RAMEY CASH 119 20.00    
2  GOOSE DRANK WINE Jul30 Jul15 Jun17 May20 Apr30 (rushton temple)RAMOS B 124 12.00 16% 5.20    
3  OREGON COUNTY Aug12 Jul30 Jun25 May20 May13 (hibdon mark)MORALES ROBERTO 124 6.00    
4  NORTHERN QUEST (FR) Jul29 Jul16 Jun25 Jun18 May29 (wheeler travis)LULL E 124 2.50    
5  CHEF Jul29 Apr25 Apr10 Mar11 Feb22 (tate mary)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 3.50 26% 2.90    
6  THREE BALL Aug06 Jul16 Jun17 May20 Apr29 (roberts m)HAAR NATHAN 124 4.50 22% 3.60    
 
ARP-5   08/20/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($8.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  QUEENS RANSOM Aug05 Jul08 Jun17 May06 Apr19 (perkinson cc)HAAR NATHAN 124 10.00    
3  TOOTIE Jul30 Jul23 Jul15 Jun25 Jun16 (christian billy)LULL E 124 4.50 13% 6.90    
4  SEGOVIANA Jun18 May05 Apr28 Apr14 Mar31 (hibdon n)LUARK T 124 12.00    
5  OLIVIAN Jul30 Jun17 May19 Apr08 Mar26 (christian billy)WALES T 124 15.00 12% 7.70    
6  JUST REMEMBER Jul30 Jul10 Sep25 Aug22 Aug01 (hall monk)RAMEY CASH 116 3.50 52% 0.90    
SCR  RACHIE RACH Jul30 Jun24 May12 Apr14 Mar31 (moreno carl)MORALES ROBERTO 124 2.50    
SCR  OKIE PRINCESS Jun11 Jun11 Jul25 Jul04 Jun19 ( )TBA null      
 
ARP-6   08/20/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($14.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALL NATIVE Jul17 Apr25 Feb26 Feb07 Jan24 (martinez a)WALES T 124 20.00    
2  VIRTUALLY Jul22 Jul03 Jun18 May06 Mar24 (rushton temple)RAMOS B 124 2.50    
3  THE GINGER QUEEN (IRE) Jul03 May02 Apr08 Mar26 Feb14 (martinez a)TORRES J 124 15.00    
4  INTO CLASSIC Aug06 Jul15 Jun17 Apr25 Apr11 (parsons ril)MORALES ROBERTO 124 3.50 8% 11.40    
5  RAY AREWETHEREYET Aug06 Jul15 Jun24 May06 Apr22 (rushton temple)RAMEY CASH 119 4.50 62% 0.60    
6  RED HOT MOON Aug06 Jul15 Jun10 May14 Apr01 (triana ma)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 10.00 6% 16.20    
 
ARP-7   08/20/2023 4620ft DIRT RC11 FAST CTBA Mount Elbert Purse ($36.843K) 3UP C/G PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAIUS Jul09 Jun18 Oct04 Sep20 Sep05 (martinez o )MORALES ROBERTO 124 15.00 11% 8.40    
  (by ROCKY BAR out of HARBOR SUNRISE by PULPIT)
2  TULSA TIME Jul22 Jul09 Jun19 Oct02 Sep18 (vicchrilli rus)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 4.50    
  (by TULSA TE out of MISS CASTELLI by INDIAN CHARLIE)
3  HOYA PARANOYA Jul31 Jun17 Mar19 Mar03 Feb11 (garrett j)LULL E 124 3.50 26% 2.90    
  (by MUCHO MACHO MAN out of LOST IN SUCCESS by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
4  COLLUSIONIST Jul22 Jul01 Jun19 Nov04 Oct04 (martinez a)WALES T 124 1.00 39% 1.60    
  (by EZ EFFORT out of PRETTY AMAZING by BENCHMARK)
5  TUFF WILLY TE Aug05 Jul15 Jun18 Oct04 Sep20 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 124 8.00    
  (by TULSA TE out of DINERA by LATENT HEAT)
 
ARP-8   08/20/2023 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($14.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FIRST CALL Jul09 Apr22 Mar21 Feb25 May03 (kenney dan)HAAR NATHAN 124 2.50 70% 0.40    
2  RONAMO Jul15 Jul02 Jun19 Apr26 Mar14 (barraza s)LULL E 124 4.50 8% 12.10    
3  HEY NOW Jul22 Jul02 Apr26 Apr17 Mar18 (kenney dan)WALES T 124 3.50 ★    
4  SWEET MEDICINE Jul22 May16 May08 Mar11 Feb10 (williams f)RAMEY CASH 119 10.00    
5  HOLD TIGHT Aug05 Jul15 Apr24 Sep20 Sep05 (shipp michael)RAMOS B 124 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.